O'Connor: Bulls interested in Gobert and Mitchell Robinson

[holv03]

I think the Bulls will make a deal on draft night to make a push towards a championship next season. I think they are going to end up adding more pieces to the trio of DeRozan, Ball and Lavine. I am actually excited to see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

[drosestruts]

Sure, but his size, length, athleticism combination make that a higher volume opportunity than what would be true of a lot of other players in the same position. You get highly efficient offense there and in decent volume still.



If the starting five is healthy in the playoffs, Lonzo, Pat, and Zach can all space the floor. Also worth noting that last year, Vuc wasn't really a threat anywhere on the floor, by the end of the season, no one was guarding him anywhere.

I'm very hesitant to include Williams on this list. I'm well aware of his good 3-point percentage his first two years, I just can't look past the low volume and be confident he'll ever at any time increase his aggressiveness and volume.

I think some of it is personality and some of it is his slow shot. If you look at William's shot dashboard (https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630172/shots-dash) he's only shooting when wide open.

you can cheat off of Williams up to 6 feet and if he catches it, he's not shooting. That's a problem. You'll have Rudy's defender camped out in the paint, whomever is guarding Ball, Zach, or DeMar will be near them, and William's reluctance gives the defenders another guy who can swipe in for help, because Williams, while good when he does shoot, simply doesn't do it unless absolutely wide open.

This is all true to an extent. A couple of counterpoints:

1. Spacing the floor is not based on the volume of shots or makes. It’s based solely on what the defense does. If they consider you a threat to shoot and guard you accordingly, you’ve spaced the floor. That said, the ability to hit the 3 obviously plays a big role in how teams defend you. Pat’s not the type of guy who you have a defender chase around all the time because you are terrified of his 3 ball. So he’s not a super-spacer right now. But defenders do have to, and in fact do, respect his 3 ball. Once the ball is in his hands they will close out (and therefore need to be close enough to close out) and he has the skills to both pass and drive on that, which is a significant part of the benefit of the spacing.

2. When Pat came back at the end of the season he showed a quicker release from 3, took more while defended, and even took a couple of pull-up 3s off the dribble.

Point being, I think he should be listed as a floor spacer in a Gobert hypothetical, albeit just barely.

You have him as barely a floor spacer, I have him as a potential floor spacer. All in all I don't think our views are far off. Suppose I'm just waiting to see it done consitently before giving him the title of floor spacer.

I know it's very greedy of me to want a 20 year old player to be making a bigger impact, it's just that the talent is obviously there, and our timeline, with this group at least, is very now-ish.

It's very difficult to win without being all in, yes there's great franchises who've masterfully bridged eras of sorts. I think too often teams get stuck trying to build a dynasty over simply building a team capable of competing now.

Pat represents are highest unrealized potential players, but also our biggest trade chip.

Gobert would just be another win-now move, and Pat's development (or lack of in a timely enough fashion) could help us contend or be the thing that holds us back.

If he's still low-volume and hesitant, the floor just shrinks even more and the offense would be in major trouble.

[DuckIII]

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AK loves Pat. But I do think he’d trade him in the right deal. This is not the right deal.

Gobert’s contract is worth the risk, but at a buyer’s price.

Let's say they ask for Pat and the Bulls stand firm. Utah blinks, and says "ok, fine, we'll take Vooch, Coby, and Ayo."

Deal?

Probably, reluctantly. I write a lot about Ayo because so many Bulls fans had such a poor understanding of his game, and many still do. Not because I think he’s a future star. In a post above I left him off the list of “significant assets” in a Gobert trade for a reason.

He’s going to be a very fun guy to watch and root for, and will reach whatever his ceiling is. But in my opinion that ceiling is “good starter on some teams, very good 6th man on others.” I don’t think over time a player of his eventual caliber will be all that hard to replace. And we still have Caruso and Ball.

Pat is different. Unlike with Ayo, I’m not at all convinced Pat will ever reach his ceiling. But if he does you’d be dubbed insane for having included him in a deal for Gobert. The only way to attempt to mitigate against the risk of Gobert’s contract (other than not trading for him) is to avoid including anyone who could develop into a foundational piece. Pat’s really the only guy being discussed who fits that description.

[NZB2323]

Gobert is under contract for 160M for a player playing the least valuable position in the game, with skills that don't match the modern game, and will be 30, 31, 32, and 33 for those years, where centers typically start having pretty big drop offs after 30 because they are just so big that the wear is worse on them.

I agree that Gobert's contract is risky, and it's definitely not cheap. However, I think players who impact the game the way he does have historically aged well, and there's a good chance he's productive throughout his contract.

Consider the following:

- Mutombo won his last DPOY at the age of 34, and made his last All-NBA and all-star appearance at the age of 35
- Tim Duncan peaked defensively around 30, but made All-defense teams until he was 35
- Marcus Camby won DPOY at the age of 32, and made 1st team all defense at the age of 33. His prime defensive years were with the Nuggets between the ages of 29 and 33
- Marc Gasol was an effective defensive anchor for the Grizzlies up until the age of 32
- Tyson Chandler was an effective defensive anchor up until the age of 32, when he was the starting center for a 50-32 Mavericks team
- Javale McGee(!) had one of his best seasons at the age of 34 this year

What all these guys have in common is that they didn't have to leave their feet to play defense. Guys who can play defense using their wingspan and instinct seem to have a really good glide path to NBA longevity. Every player I mentioned above played at least until their mid-thirties.

This is in stark contrast to defenders like Ben Wallace and Alonzo Mourning, who declined sharply after the age of 30. But they were mostly weak side defenders who used their leaping ability to make plays.

Obviously a lot depends on the particulars of Gobert's health, and I'm not going to pretend like I have a really informed opinion on this. But assuming he doesn't have degenerative conditions in his lower body, he seems well suited to be productive into his 30's.

The NBA will also go into a new TV contract the last year of his contract, which should reduce the risk of his salary that year.

I don't disagree with you about his contract situation being a potential problem, but I think Gobert's a good bet to be some semblance of himself throughout most of it.

+1

Tyson Chandler also won DPOTY at age 33, and made the all-NBA defensive 1st team at age 34. In general I'm a fan of Gobert. On offense he gives you 16 points a game on 71% shooting, 4 offensive rebounds a game, and tons of screen assists. The defensive meltdowns of the Jazz I believe are largely due to the Jazz playing 4 bad defensive players with Gobert, and Gobert can't defend a 3-point shooter and protect the rim when guys blow past their defender.

However, I wonder if Ayton is a better trade target. Danny Ainge tends not to lose trades, and refuses to do a trade unless he wins. That's why we never traded Jimmy Butler to him. Robert Saver is cheap as hell, and I know it worked out well for us when we bought the Luol Deng draft pick with cash from him. Ayton is only 23, and I think it's more likely that we could win an Ayton trade than a Gobert trade.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

I think the Bulls will make a deal on draft night to make a push towards a championship next season. I think they are going to end up adding more pieces to the trio of DeRozan, Ball and Lavine. I am actually excited to see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

Are we talking about some inside info, or is this just wishful thinking?

[Red8911]

Gobert is actually better than Vuc offensively as well which is funny.

He really isn’t. Watch Gobert play he’s not even close on offense.Vuc is one of the best offensive centers in the league. Gobert and Vuc are just different types of centers.

[Jcool0]

Gobert is actually better than Vuc offensively as well which is funny.

He really isn’t. Watch Gobert play he’s not even close on offense.Vuc is one of the best offensive centers in the league. Gobert and Vuc are just different types of centers.

Vuc WAS one of the better offensive centers. Not sure he is if hes not hitting 40% on 3s.

[Jcool0]

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AK loves Pat. But I do think he’d trade him in the right deal. This is not the right deal.

Gobert’s contract is worth the risk, but at a buyer’s price.

This is probably the best player Pat can get you.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Gobert should be had at Vuc + filler. No real assets. His salary is atrocious but we are in a conference with Giannis and Embiid

[Guy]

The idea of rebuilding with our current roster just does not make sense. We need to swing for the fences while our main guys still have something left in the tank and now is the time. If it doesnt work out, we can dump our assets in 3-4 years given we at least tried to be a contender and be stuck with only one potentially bad contract in Lavine.

Giannis is not leaving our division for the foreseeable future, when the most impactful defensive player in the league is available you jump on it.

[DuckIII]

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AK loves Pat. But I do think he’d trade him in the right deal. This is not the right deal.

Gobert’s contract is worth the risk, but at a buyer’s price.

This is probably the best player Pat can get you.

As part of a package? Maybe. But being the “best trade available” doesn’t mean you should make it. Not unless you absolutely have to trade someone or see them walk. The Bulls are not under any sort of duress with Pat. He just finished his second year.

[kodo]

Gobert is actually better than Vuc offensively as well which is funny.

He really isn’t. Watch Gobert play he’s not even close on offense.Vuc is one of the best offensive centers in the league. Gobert and Vuc are just different types of centers.

Vuc WAS one of the better offensive centers. Not sure he is if hes not hitting 40% on 3s.

He was never a good offensive center in terms of point efficiency, even in Orlando.

He was one of the worst TS% starting centers this season, and has always been. The top 3 guys were Timelord (73.5%), Gobert (73.3%), and Mitch Robinson (71.4%). Guys in the middle were Ayton (65.6%), Bam (60.8%0, Wendell (59.9%). Rounding out the bottom you got Adams (55.8%), Beef Stew (55%), and Vucevic (53%) coming in a full 2% worse than those guys, making his own bottom really.

He was also dead last in the previous season as well, partly on Orlando. And the season before he was bottom 4. "Bouncing back" next season to his "normal" form would mean still being one of the worst offensive center options around the league. A big part of it is he never gets any FTs, he usually throws up that flat hook from 8' instead of attacking the rim on dunk attempts.

Vuc has never scored points efficiently, his purpose on offense to is to space the floor, which made sense w/ Chicago to let DDR and Lavine get into the paint. So when he's not hitting his 3s, he's a negative on offense. How useful is Kyle Korver when not hitting 3s? He's slow, old, not athletic, can't create off the dribble. But a good IQ player, passes within the offense. Listens to the coach. Probably great locker room guy. Vuc is largely the same situation at the 5.

[AKfanatic]

Gobert would be a much better fit on this roster than Vuc.

I was a broken record regarding Vuc over the past season, he just doesn’t play BIG. He so often misses rebounds or allows easy buckets due to his consistent inability to raise his arms over his head. Two areas where Gobert excels and would greatly effect games.

Offensively, sure Vuc is more “skilled” but Gobert’s “skills”, rolling to the basket/catching lobs and either getting second chance points or being a good dump-off option on drives would fit with Zach, Demar’s mid-range game, Ball’s lob (drop off) ability much better.

“Spacing” is repeated constantly as why a Vuc is the better option, and fans seem to believe bigs that shoot from range provide it. What people often overlook is the spacing a guard at the arc receives when there’s a big grabbing offensive boards and being a lob/dunk threat in the paint. Bigs around the arc often provide little space because the D still views them shooting as a victory and plays off them, taking space from the other threats.

[DuckIII]

The idea of rebuilding with our current roster just does not make sense. We need to swing for the fences while our main guys still have something left in the tank and now is the time. If it doesnt work out, we can dump our assets in 3-4 years given we at least tried to be a contender and be stuck with only one potentially bad contract in Lavine.

Giannis is not leaving our division for the foreseeable future, when the most impactful defensive player in the league is available you jump on it.

This line of thinking has become popular, but I don’t see it this way. Unless of course you can go all in on someone like KD or some other very high level elite player.

I support a Gobert trade, don’t get me wrong. But it’s just going to make us better, not elite, and his contract is restrictive. You can’t overpay for him.

DDR and Vuc are 33 and 32 and are short-timers intended to re-establish us as a legitimate and desirable franchise. They were never all-in acquisitions. They represent a stage, not a conclusion.

Zach - 27
Ball - 24
Caruso - 28
Pat - 20
Ayo - 22
Coby - 22

We are a young team outside DDR and Vuc. We have plenty to continue to build a “stage 2” contender if AK is smart about how he manages Vuc and DDR as assets.

[Jcool0]

AK loves Pat. But I do think he’d trade him in the right deal. This is not the right deal.

Gobert’s contract is worth the risk, but at a buyer’s price.

This is probably the best player Pat can get you.

As part of a package? Maybe. But being the “best trade available” doesn’t mean you should make it. Not unless you absolutely have to trade someone or see them walk. The Bulls are not under any sort of duress with Pat. He just finished his second year.

If you can get Gobert for Pat you have to do it. I mean some are acting like he is Ben Wallace averaging 10 rebounds and 5 ppg while being undersized. This is a 7-1 center who might be the best defender in the league and also gets you 15 ppg (our current offensive center averages 17).

[DuckIII]

This is probably the best player Pat can get you.

As part of a package? Maybe. But being the “best trade available” doesn’t mean you should make it. Not unless you absolutely have to trade someone or see them walk. The Bulls are not under any sort of duress with Pat. He just finished his second year.

If you can get Gobert for Pat you have to do it. I mean some are acting like he is Ben Wallace averaging 10 rebounds and 5 ppg while being undersized. This is a 7-1 center who might be the best defender in the league and also gets you 15 ppg (our current offensive center averages 17).

Then you’ve more or less completely locked yourself into a better but still non-contending core which will be followed by blowing it up and starting over because you no longer have any traceable assets.

Gobert at a buyer’s price is a good idea. At a seller’s price it’s not.

[sco]

As part of a package? Maybe. But being the “best trade available” doesn’t mean you should make it. Not unless you absolutely have to trade someone or see them walk. The Bulls are not under any sort of duress with Pat. He just finished his second year.

If you can get Gobert for Pat you have to do it. I mean some are acting like he is Ben Wallace averaging 10 rebounds and 5 ppg while being undersized. This is a 7-1 center who might be the best defender in the league and also gets you 15 ppg (our current offensive center averages 17).

Then you’ve more or less completely locked yourself into a better but still non-contending core which will be followed by blowing it up and starting over because you no longer have any traceable assets.

Gobert at a buyer’s price is a good idea. At a seller’s price it’s not.

I'd prefer Vuc/Coby/Green, but I just don't think that will get it done.

I know Pat is a HUGE unknown in terms of his potential, but, IMO, his likely ceiling is 2nd quartile starting PF. We'd be creating a hole at PF that we'd need to fill, but I think folks are underestimating the value of a rim protector behind Zach and Demar. With Ball, Caruso and Gobert, we'd be a top defensive team.

A better question would be whether we'd prefer to keep Pat or #18?

[League Circles]

I don't think I'd give up Vuc and Patrick for Gobert, and I'm as high on Gobert as anyone. I'd frankly want to see if I can get him while keeping both of them, but I'd trade one max, and probably not Patrick, because then Vuc becomes our starting PF, and I think that's a mistake.

I wonder if there's any way to get him for something like DJJ, Coby, Caruso, and our pick? Maybe Utah wants to get out of his deal that bad? That might not even be close enough to match though.

[Jcool0]

As part of a package? Maybe. But being the “best trade available” doesn’t mean you should make it. Not unless you absolutely have to trade someone or see them walk. The Bulls are not under any sort of duress with Pat. He just finished his second year.

If you can get Gobert for Pat you have to do it. I mean some are acting like he is Ben Wallace averaging 10 rebounds and 5 ppg while being undersized. This is a 7-1 center who might be the best defender in the league and also gets you 15 ppg (our current offensive center averages 17).

Then you’ve more or less completely locked yourself into a better but still non-contending core which will be followed by blowing it up and starting over because you no longer have any traceable assets.

Gobert at a buyer’s price is a good idea. At a seller’s price it’s not.

Then maybe you are locked in. Better trying something then Gar/Paxing it aka doing nothing in the hope LeBron would decides Chicago is his next move. East is easily winnable and we might be able to out defense Boston or Miami with Gobert, Ball and Caruso. Maybe we find out Gobert was more a reason Utah was a 50+ win team then Mitchell.

[dougthonus]

Consider the following:

- Mutombo won his last DPOY at the age of 34, and made his last All-NBA and all-star appearance at the age of 35
- Tim Duncan peaked defensively around 30, but made All-defense teams until he was 35
- Marcus Camby won DPOY at the age of 32, and made 1st team all defense at the age of 33. His prime defensive years were with the Nuggets between the ages of 29 and 33
- Marc Gasol was an effective defensive anchor for the Grizzlies up until the age of 32
- Tyson Chandler was an effective defensive anchor up until the age of 32, when he was the starting center for a 50-32 Mavericks team
- Javale McGee(!) had one of his best seasons at the age of 34 this year

Of these guys, only Gasol has a body built like Gobert. The massive size / weight is what puts so much stress on your joints, and Gasol wasn't playing with as much force as Gobert does.

Beyond that, of these guys, how many would you want on a max deal past 30? Maybe Gasol, but almost certainly not any of the others despite that they were giving you defensive anchor performances, and in their day, the defensive center was much more valuable.

I don't disagree with you about his contract situation being a potential problem, but I think Gobert's a good bet to be some semblance of himself throughout most of it.

Yeah, I don't think it's for sure he falls off or anything, I just think it's a significant risk he isn't able to stay healthy or falls off. He could be the same guy for four years, but the odds of it decline with each additional year of age and the risk of missing time goes up.