Would the 2018 Rockets have choked in the NBA Finals against the Cavs?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Had James Harden and the Rockets gotten past the Warriors in the 2018 Western Conference Finals, would they have found a way to choke against an inferior Cavs team?

[No-more-rings]

Possibly, considering how often that happens to Paul led teams including that very season.

[HeartBreakKid]

Nope. Cavs were the worst defense in the league. Even if the Rockets underperform they would still beat the Cavs pretty handily. They're not close to each other.

[picc]

I would have favored the Rockets, but my opinion is that you cannot under any circumstance guarantee a Paul or Harden led team will close a series out. And with Lebron on the other end, who as much as I dislike him is the antithesis of both, it would have surprised me 0% if the Cavs won.

[GSP]

All it takes is a Cp3 hammy pull..... Then are you betting on a hobbled Cp3 and Harden with 3&d teammates or Bron in his peak playoff run?

[RCM88x]

The Rockets we're infinitely less intimidating at the time than the Warriors, even if the Warriors didn't appear as bulletproof as they did the year prior. Who knows what Paul would have looked like when he returned either?

They were also a significantly better matchup for that Cavs team too, no Draymond, KD or Iggy. Could have camped Lebron on PJ or something and made it a lot easier for him. On the other end PJ, Ariza, Harden, or any of those guys really ever showed much success defending Lebron. Sure the Cavs didn't really have a Harden stopper but I would trust the guys on the roster far more against Harden than I would against KD and Curry.

I don't think they'd win the series but I could see a tough 6 games for Houston.

[jalengreen]

The Rockets were a truly fantastic team. In the regular season, they had a 42-3 record with CP3/Harden/Capela playing. CP3 missed 24 games and Harden missed 10 and they still won 65 games.

I don't really think the Cavaliers could've won that series. Maybe if the whole team suddenly got really hot like they did against the Raptors it'd be interesting, but I'd expect something closer to the R1 series where they were outscored overall and it took a heroic carryjob from LeBron to get them past the *Pacers.* They had no chance against a team like the Rockets.

I think people underrate Harden sometimes. He'd torch that defense lol

[tone wone]

if Paul is healthy then no that's a 5 game series...maybe 6.

But if he's hurt then its Harden and a group of defensive role players vs Lebron and a group of offensive role players.

The gap gets smaller but I just can't imagine the 2018 Cavs winning a title. Its an outlandish thought.

[scrabbarista]

As noted, that Rockets team was an all-time squad when healthy. 42-3? Find me another trio with a record like that. And that Cavs team sucked. They would've lost to Indy in the Firt Round if not for some referee shenanigans. (Understandably, given the difference in revenue a LeBron team generates vs. a small-market Oladipo team.) The 2018 WCF was as much the "real Finals" as in any other season in NBA history.

[sp6r=underrated]

A lot of this comes down to how do you view the Cavs in relationship to teams of that era.

If you look at the RS data, the Cavs reputation as the clear second best team of 2015 to 18 is undeserved. They don't even look to be the 2nd best team of that era. so they are a significant underdog to the Rockets. They could win, as upsets happen, but it'd be unlikely.

If you focus heavily on the EC playoff games and discard the RS games, a different view emerges. Believers in this camp probably favor Cleveland.

I'm in camp 1, FWIW, and would expect Houston to dominate.

[Doctor MJ]

Had James Harden and the Rockets gotten past the Warriors in the 2018 Western Conference Finals, would they have found a way to choke against an inferior Cavs team?

2 things I think should be remembered:

1. The Cavaliers were the worst team the Warriors played in the playoffs - both based on regular season SRS and by how easy it was for the Warriors to win.

2. The Rockets, if they were just super-prone to choking, had already had 3 series that year in which they could have done so. Instead they beat two teams with superior SRSes to the Cavs, and came very close to beating the Curry-Durant Warriors that no Cavs team ever came close to challenging.

We shouldn't mistake the tendency to regress to the mean a bit in the playoffs with an assumption that players and teams that tend to do this will just naturally end up melting into awfulness the moment they play a good playoff team. Yes, those Rockets likely were a bit worse in the playoffs than in the regular season even without injury considerations...but that doesn't mean we should thing those Cavs were in the same league as them.

[falcolombardi]

A lot of this comes down to how do you view the Cavs in relationship to teams of that era.

If you look at the RS data, the Cavs reputation as the clear second best team of 2015 to 18 is undeserved. They don't even look to be the 2nd best team of that era. so they are a significant underdog to the Rockets. They could win, as upsets happen, but it'd be unlikely.

If you focus heavily on the EC playoff games and discard the RS games, a different view emerges. Believers in this camp probably favor Cleveland.

I'm in camp 1, FWIW, and would expect Houston to dominate.

there is zero doubt in my mind they were the second best team 2015-2017, specially if they got to be healthy in 2015

[sp6r=underrated]

A lot of this comes down to how do you view the Cavs in relationship to teams of that era.

If you look at the RS data, the Cavs reputation as the clear second best team of 2015 to 18 is undeserved. They don't even look to be the 2nd best team of that era. so they are a significant underdog to the Rockets. They could win, as upsets happen, but it'd be unlikely.

If you focus heavily on the EC playoff games and discard the RS games, a different view emerges. Believers in this camp probably favor Cleveland.

I'm in camp 1, FWIW, and would expect Houston to dominate.

there is zero doubt in my mind they were the second best team 2015-2017, specially if they got to be healthy in 2015

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

[falcolombardi]

A lot of this comes down to how do you view the Cavs in relationship to teams of that era.

If you look at the RS data, the Cavs reputation as the clear second best team of 2015 to 18 is undeserved. They don't even look to be the 2nd best team of that era. so they are a significant underdog to the Rockets. They could win, as upsets happen, but it'd be unlikely.

If you focus heavily on the EC playoff games and discard the RS games, a different view emerges. Believers in this camp probably favor Cleveland.

I'm in camp 1, FWIW, and would expect Houston to dominate.

there is zero doubt in my mind they were the second best team 2015-2017, specially if they got to be healthy in 2015

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

[sp6r=underrated]

there is zero doubt in my mind they were the second best team 2015-2017, specially if they got to be healthy in 2015

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

I've alredy explained the crux of the debate. How do you weigh the RS data, especially the RS point differential? If you don't put weight on it you reach 1 decision. If you do you reach another

So yeah I think the Spurs were better from 2015-17. OKC was better too in 2015 and 16. HOU was better in 2017 and 2018. Shift 2 of those 3 clubs to the east and I think Cleveland makes maybe 1 final.

Which isn't an indictment of Lebron, I think he has the best case for GOAT in part because of those years. It is the guys 2-12.

[falcolombardi]

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

I've alredy explained the crux of the debate. How do you weigh the RS data, especially the RS point differential? If you don't put weight on it you reach 1 decision. If you do you reach another

So yeah I think the Spurs were better from 2015-17. OKC was better too in 2015 and 16. HOU was better in 2017 and 2018. Shift 2 of those 3 clubs to the east and I think Cleveland makes maybe 1 final.

Which isn't an indictment of Lebron, I think he has the best case for GOAT in part because of those years. It is the guys 2-12.

houston in 2017 and oklahoma in 2015? are you sure on those two?

[RCM88x]

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

I've alredy explained the crux of the debate. How do you weigh the RS data, especially the RS point differential? If you don't put weight on it you reach 1 decision. If you do you reach another

So yeah I think the Spurs were better from 2015-17. OKC was better too in 2015 and 16. HOU was better in 2017 and 2018. Shift 2 of those 3 clubs to the east and I think Cleveland makes maybe 1 final.

Which isn't an indictment of Lebron, I think he has the best case for GOAT in part because of those years. It is the guys 2-12.

How was OKC better in 2016 let alone 2015, Spurs in 2015? Or Houston in 2017?

I feel like if you pay attention to games these days it's just hard to put much value on the regular season, it's almost an entirely different sport.

Btw I have no problem if you say that those teams were purely better regular season teams, that is obvious. But when it comes to "real" basketball I don't think the RS is a good indicator of team strength.

[sp6r=underrated]

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

I've alredy explained the crux of the debate. How do you weigh the RS data, especially the RS point differential? If you don't put weight on it you reach 1 decision. If you do you reach another

So yeah I think the Spurs were better from 2015-17. OKC was better too in 2015 and 16. HOU was better in 2017 and 2018. Shift 2 of those 3 clubs to the east and I think Cleveland makes maybe 1 final.

Which isn't an indictment of Lebron, I think he has the best case for GOAT in part because of those years. It is the guys 2-12.

houston in 2017 and oklahoma in 2015? are you sure on those two?

I have to confess I forgot that Durant was hurt for 2015 not 14. I'd take the Clippers team that year over CLE.

Yes on Houston.

[HeartBreakKid]

there is zero doubt in my mind you are wrong

oklahoma was a contender for only one of those 3 years

spurs are the only other team that can be 2nd and i would take the cavs over them in 2016 amd the healtht cavs over them in 2015

I've alredy explained the crux of the debate. How do you weigh the RS data, especially the RS point differential? If you don't put weight on it you reach 1 decision. If you do you reach another

So yeah I think the Spurs were better from 2015-17. OKC was better too in 2015 and 16. HOU was better in 2017 and 2018. Shift 2 of those 3 clubs to the east and I think Cleveland makes maybe 1 final.

Which isn't an indictment of Lebron, I think he has the best case for GOAT in part because of those years. It is the guys 2-12.

OKC wasn't better than CLE in 2015...Cleveland was the best team in 2015. OKC was relatively even with CLE in 2016, but 2015 I do not see an argument at all.

I think you probably along with a lot of people were too hard on Cleveland during the RS (and they were still pretty good), and probably didn't want to accept that they were much better than you thought.

I remember many people were very resistant to the idea that they were better than GSW probably because many people went out on a limb saying GSW would destroy them which did not really happen in 2015.

[ShotCreator]

Had James Harden and the Rockets gotten past the Warriors in the 2018 Western Conference Finals, would they have found a way to choke against an inferior Cavs team?

2 things I think should be remembered:

1. The Cavaliers were the worst team the Warriors played in the playoffs - both based on regular season SRS and by how easy it was for the Warriors to win.

2. The Rockets, if they were just super-prone to choking, had already had 3 series that year in which they could have done so. Instead they beat two teams with superior SRSes to the Cavs, and came very close to beating the Curry-Durant Warriors that no Cavs team ever came close to challenging.

We shouldn't mistake the tendency to regress to the mean a bit in the playoffs with an assumption that players and teams that tend to do this will just naturally end up melting into awfulness the moment they play a good playoff team. Yes, those Rockets likely were a bit worse in the playoffs than in the regular season even without injury considerations...but that doesn't mean we should thing those Cavs were in the same league as them.

All good logic.

But also I don’t see why they would’ve had a prayer against Harden. Love, Thompson, Nance, Green, LeBron in his worst defensive year ever?

The amount of slow feet and non shifty hips in those names. Houston would’ve had so many ways to beat them.


People also don’t realize Clint Capela played like an All-NBA guy, though a modest one, against EVERYBODY except Draymond in his Rockets career.

Nene was also a low minutes demon. In his last playoff run with Houston, he literally didn’t miss a shot the entire playoffs. Literally 100% from the field, and Houston blew GS out with him on court both playoff series. Him not playing over Capela in 19 against GS is a big reason for the “choke”.

Nene was old but his feel was peaking. He topped Capela on blocks and steals in 1/3 of the time in the 19 series against GS.

Al that is to say, Capela/Nene is the best rim protection LeBron would’ve seen in the entire return era.
And lastly Luc Mbah a Moute was the single best defender against penetration I have ever seen. Came into the league as a PF as a rookie, but was the opposite of most SF, who get old and transition into being PF, he was a PF with the mobility and foot speed to play SF into old age. But with the strength and instincts of a PF in the paint.

Just a special athlete. LeBron was strong and amazing but Luc would’ve been able to ride him to the rim enough to prevent the 50 point outburst that defined how dominant LeBron was, I think.

Luc wasn’t even being beaten by PG’s off dribble, or off screens but strong enough to lock Kawhi down on all his muscle moves to the paint.

Capela/Nene/would’ve dominated.

Harden/Paul would’ve been in play style and athleticism comfort zones against Cleveland’s defenders.

In general that’s just a recipe for guys like Ariza/Gordon/Tucked/Luc to get confident and hot.

It’s way more likely you see a complete domination than anything resembling a competitive series. It’s a juggernaut going against a team it really matches up well with.