Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 (East Coast Zone [highschool])

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Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 (East Coast Zone [highschool]) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jun 6, 2022 5:34 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #5 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

jalengreen wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:.

Colbini wrote:.

giordunk wrote:.

Movics wrote:.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jun 7, 2022 4:04 pm

Well I'm pretty dead-set on my top 2 picks, though not necessarily the order. I'll go with the order I had in the last thread [see discussion there], but I'm willing to switch Duke in front if someone can provide a homerun argument in Duke's favour.

#3 pick is interesting. I thought Michigan might be a front-runner, or maybe the East-Central highschool zone [having Lebron and Kobe provides a lot of weight, though the depth is terrible].
But now I'm actually looking at universities like Michigan State, Georgetown, or Indiana or LSU (or maybe even Arizona??).

Check out Michigan State:
*52 total players/careers listed on bbref.
**top names include: Magic Johnson, Draymond Green, Zach Randolph, Kevin Willis, Steve Smith, Jason Richardson, Johnny Green, Mo Peterson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Scott Skiles, Ralph Simpson, Eric Snow, Gary Harris, Miles Bridges, Jay Vincent, Charlie Bell, Bryn Forbes.
Admittedly the last 22 names on their list all played <1500 total minutes in their respective careers; but still......those first 10-15 names stack up against nearly any source left, no?

I'm gonna tentatively make them my 3rd ballot, though am open to changing it to Michigan, Indiana, E-CZ, or potentially a different university.

1. East Coast Zone
2. Duke
3. Michigan State East-Central Zone [EDITED]
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jun 7, 2022 4:09 pm

jalengreen wrote:.


Hey, any chance you'd be willing to post the total WS, weighted average WS, etc, like you did in a prior thread, only this time for the following universities:

Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
LSU
Arizona
Ohio State
Georgetown

.....and any others you wish to include. Certainly universities like Villanova, Marquette, maybe even Wake Forest can't be too far behind this group.

Actually, looking closer, I may switch my 3rd pick from Michigan State to Georgetown......
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jun 7, 2022 4:23 pm

Georgetown vs Michigan State, coarse view.....

Top Dogs
MSU - Magic Johnson
Georgetown - Patrick Ewing
(Winner - MSU)

the Wing Men
MSU - Draymond Green, Zach Randolph
Georgetown - Allen Iverson, Dikembe Mutombo
(Winner - Georgetown)

The Next Five
MSU - Steve Smith, Kevin Willis, Johnny Green, Jason Richardson, Scott Skiles
Georgetown - Alonzo Mourning, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green, Sleepy Floyd
(Winner - Georgetown [close though])

The Next 10
MSU - Jaren Jackson Jr., Mo Peterson, Eric Snow, Ralph Simpson, Gary Harris, Miles Bridges, Jay Vincent, Charlie Bell, Bryn Forbes, Al Ferrari
Georgetown - Otto Porter Jr, Reggie Williams, Othella Harrington, Jaren Jackson Sr., David Wingate, Jerome Williams, Hollis Thompson, Jahidi White, Don Reid, Mike Sweetney
(Winner - MSU)

Neither university has anything much to show after that (as you can see, I was already getting down into some relative nobodies); I suppose Georgetown's remainder is slightly less, not only because they list 49 total [to MSU's 52], but because basically NO ONE after the names I've already listed above played even 2,500 minutes for his whole career.

I guess I'll stick with MSU for now; don't see a reason to switch in favour of Georgetown based on this.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#5 » by jalengreen » Tue Jun 7, 2022 7:51 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Hey, any chance you'd be willing to post the total WS, weighted average WS, etc, like you did in a prior thread, only this time for the following universities:


Happily! I should probably go ahead and do it for every college on bbref at some point to make things easier but here are the ones you mentioned and some others that came to mind.

Image

It's sorted on total win shares but some schools have advantages in other categories.

For instance, Wake Forest leads in mean WS and weighted average WS (weighted on games played btw), no doubt due to TIm Duncan and Chris Paul dragging that number up a lot. Another team with a high mark there is Georgetown: Ewing, Iverson, Mourning, and Mutombo are some noteworthy top-tier players at the top, followed by Jeff Green, Sleepy Floyd, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Reggie Williams, and Otto Porter Jr.

Texas is also up there in mean WS and tops in median WS - they seem to lack the sheer number of players as some other schools but make up for some of that deficit in quality. With Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Slater Martin, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, PJ Tucker, DJ Augustin, LaSalle Thompson, Myles Turner, Cory Joseph, Johnny Moore, Jarrett Allen... a large percentage of their NBA playerbase ended up being quality, relevant contributors in the pros.

The team with the most win shares in this group, though, is Arizona. Arizona clearly lacks some of the all-time great talent at the top of the list that other schools boast, but they still have players like Jason Terry, Mike Bibby, Andre Iguodala, Richard Jefferson, Gilbert Arenas, Deandre Ayton, Damon Stoudamire, Sean Elliott, Channing Frye.

Ohio State's next up with players like Havlicek, Conley, Jerry Lucas, Michael Redd, Neil Johnston, Arnie Risen, Derek Anderson, and Herb Williams.

Bunch of other teams of interest too. These rankings are going to get tougher
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 12:57 am

jalengreen wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Hey, any chance you'd be willing to post the total WS, weighted average WS, etc, like you did in a prior thread, only this time for the following universities:


Happily! I should probably go ahead and do it for every college on bbref at some point to make things easier but here are the ones you mentioned and some others that came to mind.

Image

It's sorted on total win shares but some schools have advantages in other categories.

For instance, Wake Forest leads in mean WS and weighted average WS (weighted on games played btw), no doubt due to TIm Duncan and Chris Paul dragging that number up a lot. Another team with a high mark there is Georgetown: Ewing, Iverson, Mourning, and Mutombo are some noteworthy top-tier players at the top, followed by Jeff Green, Sleepy Floyd, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Reggie Williams, and Otto Porter Jr.

Texas is also up there in mean WS and tops in median WS - they seem to lack the sheer number of players as some other schools but make up for some of that deficit in quality. With Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Slater Martin, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, PJ Tucker, DJ Augustin, LaSalle Thompson, Myles Turner, Cory Joseph, Johnny Moore, Jarrett Allen... a large percentage of their NBA playerbase ended up being quality, relevant contributors in the pros.

The team with the most win shares in this group, though, is Arizona. Arizona clearly lacks some of the all-time great talent at the top of the list that other schools boast, but they still have players like Jason Terry, Mike Bibby, Andre Iguodala, Richard Jefferson, Gilbert Arenas, Deandre Ayton, Damon Stoudamire, Sean Elliott, Channing Frye.

Ohio State's next up with players like Havlicek, Conley, Jerry Lucas, Michael Redd, Neil Johnston, Arnie Risen, Derek Anderson, and Herb Williams.

Bunch of other teams of interest too. These rankings are going to get tougher


Awesome! Thanks man.
Few universities I'd sort of forgot to consider thus far: UCONN, Minnesota, Illinois.

btw, how are you calculating "Weighted Avg WS"? EDIT: nevermind, just saw it's by games played.
Yeah, that's why I figured Wake Forest could be in the mix, despite limited total numbers: Timmy and CP3 at the top moves a lot.

EDIT2: Actually can you share the equation you're using to weight regardless? Would like to see HOW you weight exactly.
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#7 » by jalengreen » Wed Jun 8, 2022 1:13 am

trex_8063 wrote:Actually can you share the equation you're using to weight regardless? Would like to see HOW you weight exactly.


sum(WS*GP)/sum(GP)

ex

player A: 17 WS in 82 games
player B: 5 WS in 90 games
player C: 2 WS in 17 games

weighted average would then be [(17*82)+(5*90)+(2*17)]/(82+90+17)=9.9
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#8 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jun 8, 2022 2:40 am

so east coast highs school 1st then duke 2nd seem to me like clear choices

i am thinking of georgetown or maybe wake forest or michigan? for third but also feel like central high school and serbia should start to get some attention
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#9 » by jalengreen » Wed Jun 8, 2022 4:47 am

I'd go 1. Duke 2. East Coast, not sure where I'd lean for #3 honestly but doesn't really matter I guess for this thread, I think #5 and #6 are basically wrapped up (EC and Duke respectively). Gonna have to think more for #7
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 2:46 pm

falcolombardi wrote:so east coast highs school 1st then duke 2nd seem to me like clear choices

i am thinking of georgetown or maybe wake forest or michigan? for third but also feel like central high school and serbia should start to get some attention


jalengreen wrote:I'd go 1. Duke 2. East Coast, not sure where I'd lean for #3 honestly but doesn't really matter I guess for this thread, I think #5 and #6 are basically wrapped up (EC and Duke respectively). Gonna have to think more for #7


fwiw, I figured up the total WS and Weighted Avg WS for the East Coast Zone [the 26 players I've identified from there].
AND [because he played his senior year in the East-Central Zone], I only entered Garnett's career thru '08 into the formula. I will give the East-Central Zone "credit" for the 8 [mostly post-prime] years that came after.

ECZ total WS: 1247.9 (vs 1562 for Duke according to jalengreen's table; decidedly higher than any other source left on the table)
ECZ Weighted Avg WS: 71.7 (vs 38.3 for Duke, and the highest Weighted Avg seen thus far [even higher than Wake Forest's mark])
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 3:20 pm

I'd like to do a similar calculation for the other highschool zones.

Right now I have 13 players [or partial players] listed the East-Central Zone
LeBron
Kobe
*Garnett [I'm giving "credit" for '09 and later only, for reasons/credit already given to another zone]
**M.Gasol [I'm giving "credit" only thru '14, the rest I'm crediting to Spain; he only played two years of highschool ball in Tennessee, otherwise raised in Spain, also played one year pro in Spain before entering the NBA]
Al Jefferson
Monta Ellis
Shaun Livingston
Joe Graboski
Eddy Curry
Darius Miles
Darius Bazley
Travis Outlaw
Jonathan Bender

You guys have others I've failed to list for this zone?
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 10:01 pm

fwiw, I figured up the Mean and Median WS for the East Coast Zone, and they're pretty wow compared to everyone else we've talked about so far too: Mean WS - 48, Median WS - 34.3

I also figured up total WS, Mean WS, Median WS, and Weighted Avg WS for the East-Central Zone......

The total WS are nothing spectacular, but fairly close to being competitive with the other universities we're talking about: 731.8.

That's with only the 13 players [or partial players] I listed above (it seems LeBron and Kobe alone give a pretty big head-start).

The Median WS is the 2nd-best [behind the East Coast Zone] that we've seen thus far: 29.9

The Mean WS and Weighted Avg WS for this source is beyond anything we've seen so far:
Mean - 56.29
Weighted Avg - 86.59

Again, LeBron and Kobe as part of a small sample size.

Ultimately [and I think everyone would agree] having huge WS clustered [in just 2-3 players] is more "meaningful" than having it spread across ~20 players; it means you've got some guys who can put a team on the map all by himself.

That the East-Central Zone can be semi-competitive in Total WS with just 13 names [mean, median, and Weighted avg being what they are too], I've decided that trumps anything the other 3rd-ballot candidates have got. So I switched my 3rd ballot pick to them.

I've been playing around with some "scores" using the data we've been looking (total players, total WS, Mean/median/weighted avg WS)......I'll share that in the next thread. Suffice to say it supports who we've suggested will be our top 6 [though not exactly the order in which we've put them].


Anyway....
Scores in this one:

East Coast Zone - 8 pts
Duke - 7 pts
East-Central Zone - 1 pt (two 3rd ballots left uncast)

We'll call this one for the East Coast Zone and move on.
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Re: Top Pro Talents Source of All-Time: #5 (East Coast Zone [highschool]) 

Post#13 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jun 8, 2022 11:30 pm

if it still can be added (not that it will change anything) i would have central high school zone as my 3rd vote

with east coast 1st and duke 2nd

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