2022 NBA Draft - Prospects Discussion

[Giannisland34]

Dalen Terry would look really good on this team. Would be amazing if he fell to the Bucks. There’s a lot of prospects in the second I think could be developed. Sucks the corrupt NBA took our pick. Like to see the owners buy one or two. Could save them money in the long run too.

[BroncoBuck]

I’m all in on Kendall Brown. I doubt he slips to us, but I love this kid.

Exactly the type of player I am hoping we land. Good size, check. Good length, check. Switchable defender, check. Play above the rim, check. Can create a bit, check. Good in transition, check. High upside, check. It would seem like the question is around what does that shooting look like long term.

Seems like lots to like with him.

Yeah he’s a guy I’ll be buying up cards for wherever he lands. His game just really translates to the NBA. If a guy comes in to college and defends that well, you have something pretty special. He’s just so damn explosive, I’m not too worried about his shot. His release is slow, but he can hit open corner shots and I’m sure he will improve. If he’s still there and we trade down like we did with Ayo I’ll be irate.

[skones]

I’m all in on Kendall Brown. I doubt he slips to us, but I love this kid.

Exactly the type of player I am hoping we land. Good size, check. Good length, check. Switchable defender, check. Play above the rim, check. Can create a bit, check. Good in transition, check. High upside, check. It would seem like the question is around what does that shooting look like long term.

Seems like lots to like with him.

I'm not buying the create a bit portion at all. There's just A LOT of skill development that needs to happen there. We need young shot creators and we need them now. We need to finesse our way into having a next wave of contributors as Middleton and Jrue age out.

[M-C-G]

I’m all in on Kendall Brown. I doubt he slips to us, but I love this kid.

Exactly the type of player I am hoping we land. Good size, check. Good length, check. Switchable defender, check. Play above the rim, check. Can create a bit, check. Good in transition, check. High upside, check. It would seem like the question is around what does that shooting look like long term.

Seems like lots to like with him.

I'm not buying the create a bit portion at all. There's just A LOT of skill development that needs to happen there. We need young shot creators and we need them now. We need to finesse our way into having a next wave of contributors as Middleton and Jrue age out.

I watched two minutes and read one scouting report. Maybe create wasn't the right word, but he got into the lane and was able to pass it to a guy for a lay up more than once. Call it whatever, maybe just capable passer.

[msiris]

My short list is J Williams and Wendell Moore. I think Moore could play right away. Just a good player all around. Good defender. Can shoot. Nice SG that we could use.

[ReasonablySober]

Pelton's consensus based list:

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Keegan Murray
4. AJ Griffin
5. Dyson Daniels
6. Walker Kessler
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. Tari Eason
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Shaedon Sharpe
11. Paolo Banchero
12. Jaden Ivey
13. Jalen Duren
14. Kennedy Chandler
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16. Christian Braun
17. Malaki Branham
18. Mark Williams
19. Trevor Keels
20. Johnny Davis
21. Peyton Watson
22. Blake Wesley
23. Hyunjung Lee
24. Gabriele Procida
25. Jabari Walker
26. Josh Minott
27. Dalen Terry
28. TyTy Washington Jr.
29. Jacob Gilyard
30. E.J. Liddell

[Profound23]

So I was talking hypotheticals about drafts with some Bucks fans offline.

We discussed how in 2014 the Bucks could have drafted Embiid and Joker. Most believe this would not have worked. I believe it could work due to the fact that Joker and Embiid can play outside.

Embiid
Joker
Giannis
Khris
Brogdon

Obviously, there is a chance Embiid and Joker never develop, but if we had known then what we know now could this team work?

[tski1972]

Pelton's consensus based list:

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Keegan Murray
4. AJ Griffin
5. Dyson Daniels
6. Walker Kessler
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. Tari Eason
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Shaedon Sharpe
11. Paolo Banchero
12. Jaden Ivey
13. Jalen Duren
14. Kennedy Chandler
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16. Christian Braun
17. Malaki Branham
18. Mark Williams
19. Trevor Keels
20. Johnny Davis
21. Peyton Watson
22. Blake Wesley
23. Hyunjung Lee
24. Gabriele Procida
25. Jabari Walker
26. Josh Minott
27. Dalen Terry
28. TyTy Washington Jr.
29. Jacob Gilyard
30. E.J. Liddell

No Jalen Williams….interesting.

[skones]

No Jalen Williams….interesting.

lol, there's a lot more "interesting" in that list than that.

[emunney]

No Jalen Williams….interesting.

lol, there's a lot more "interesting" in that list than that.

Maybe most interesting to me is a list that's clearly puts a ton of weight on box plus-minus (or some close relative) adjusted for age and position still finds a way to get Shaedon Sharpe 10th.

[Profound23]

Pelton's consensus based list:

1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Keegan Murray
4. AJ Griffin
5. Dyson Daniels
6. Walker Kessler
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. Tari Eason
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Shaedon Sharpe
11. Paolo Banchero
12. Jaden Ivey
13. Jalen Duren
14. Kennedy Chandler
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16. Christian Braun
17. Malaki Branham
18. Mark Williams
19. Trevor Keels
20. Johnny Davis
21. Peyton Watson
22. Blake Wesley
23. Hyunjung Lee
24. Gabriele Procida
25. Jabari Walker
26. Josh Minott
27. Dalen Terry
28. TyTy Washington Jr.
29. Jacob Gilyard
30. E.J. Liddell

No Jalen Williams….interesting.

Mark Williams at 18 and Davis at 20? What do we have to do to move up to 18-20 if that happens?

[CharityStripe34]

Dalen Terry would look really good in a Bucks uniform. Been watching some of the scouting highlights you guys have posted and he is an impressive hooper. Good athlete and knows how to play. And loves to defend. The Big Three would love having a kid like that.

[Ron Swanson]

Having Walker Kessler 6 spots ahead of Jaden Ivey is......something. Sometimes I think Pelton just shakes things up for the clicks/Twitter discussion.

[ReasonablySober]

No Jalen Williams….interesting.

lol, there's a lot more "interesting" in that list than that.

Maybe most interesting to me is a list that's clearly puts a ton of weight on box plus-minus (or some close relative) adjusted for age and position still finds a way to get Shaedon Sharpe 10th.

As noted, Sharpe's projection is based off 12 games for UPlay Canada in the 2021 Nike EYBL competition. It's unusual for players to play EYBL the year before they enter the draft, but both Sharpe and Jalen Duren fit that category this year because they reclassified after EYBL play. Sharpe was one of the best players in EYBL, averaging 22.6 points per game in 28.3 minutes per game on above-average efficiency. Sharpe was particularly sure-handed for a high-scorer, committing just 1.5 turnovers per game. However, his low steal rate (0.8 per game) helps produce a good, but not great, statistical projection.

[ReasonablySober]

Having Walker Kessler 6 spots ahead of Jaden Ivey is......something. Sometimes I think Pelton just shakes things up for the clicks/Twitter discussion.

Here's his thinking on both:

Given Kessler's projected block rate (more than 8% of opponent 2-point attempts) is the best of any player in my database by a wide margin, there's undoubtedly a place for him in the NBA. Kessler is also a high-percentage finisher (70% on 2-point attempts) who attempted 50 3-pointers (albeit at a 20% clip). The question is how much Kessler's footspeed will limit him against NBA pick-and-roll offenses, which has dropped him into the mid-20s in the top 100.

If I had to bet on one player to outperform their projection, it would be Ivey, who was a part-time starter with a .497 true shooting percentage as a freshman before blossoming as a sophomore (he pushed his TS% all the way to .579 while increasing his usage rate). There's a long track record of quick guards proving more effective with NBA floor spacing, particularly when they can threaten defenses with their shooting. Ivey, who hit 36% of his 3-point attempts last season, could well qualify.

[machu46]

I always enjoy looking at Pelton’s stuff each year. In the very least, it breaks from the groupthink that you see with so many other people and that’s always refreshing. The track record towards the top of his rankings has generally been pretty good too if I recall correctly.

Edit: out of date now, but I found an old post of mine with the following top 17 (would have cut it off at 15, but had a tie at the end) all time on Pelton’s rankings:

Luka Doncic - 6.1 WARP
Anthony Davis - 5.5
Kenneth Faried - 5.1
Dejuan Blair - 5.0
LaMelo Ball - 4.8
Zion Williamson - 4.7
Kevin Love - 4.6
Chet Holmgren - 4.4
Blake Griffin - 4.2
James Harden - 4.2
Kyrie Irving - 4.2
Alperen Sengun - 4.2
DeMarcus Cousins - 4.1
Steph Curry - 3.9
Kevin Durant - 3.7
Michael Beasley - 3.7
Ricky Rubio - 3.7

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[Ron Swanson]

Pelton definitely weights college/amateur production very heavily in his evaluations. I think that typically bears out in the top of the draft, especially the generational type guys (AD, Zion, Luka), but I kinda disagree with that philosophy once you get to the area of the draft where the good GM's cut their teeth, past the high-mid lottery. Not a coincidence that I disagree with much of his list past #5 then.

Someone like Jabari Walker is a perfect example. I don't even have him in my Top-50 (short arms, doesn't project as an elite shooter, good but not great athlete), but Pelton has him as a 1st round grade because of the production (19/12/2 per-40) and him being a rebounding machine as a 3/4. That certainly tracks with some of his previous misses (Beasley, Faried, Blair) of guys he was generally high on using that process.

[SirChurros]

That list is lol. -5% Banchero falls to 11.

[DingusBojangles]

That list is lol. -5% Banchero falls to 11.

I think a lot of you guys are misunderstanding what that list is. It's not meant to be a mock.

[jakecronus8]

Ranking Ivey that low disqualifies his list completely. Hot take click bait garbo.