Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 (Duke)

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Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 (Duke) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 10:03 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #6 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)

Spoiler:
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jalengreen wrote:.

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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 10:10 pm

jalengreen wrote:.


Hey again. Any chance you'd post the WS data you've been doing for UCLA and UNC?

I'm just curious how/where they stack up with the news "scores" I've been toying with [mentioned at end of last thread]. I'd like to have them in the mix before I offer up my score results for scrutiny.


btw, I'll likely keep this one thread pretty short, as Duke should be the runnaway winner here. It's shortly going to get very debatable though.
I was thinking Michigan would be like a top 8 lock; but as I'm looking at things, I'm honest not sure they're even top 12 [maybe not even top 15]. Their reputation [the "Fab Five", etc] overstates them, imo.

As I'm looking at it now, universities like Wake Forest, Georgetown, Michigan State, Arizona, or UCONN [+/- a few others] have better cases, imo.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#3 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jun 8, 2022 11:18 pm

damn, i missed the voting timeline

although east coasy highschool would have been my vote regardless so is whatwever lol
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 8, 2022 11:39 pm

falcolombardi wrote:damn, i missed the voting timeline

although east coasy highschool would have been my vote regardless so is whatwever lol


I counted you as a:

1. ECZ
2. Duke
3. (left blank)
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#5 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jun 8, 2022 11:40 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:damn, i missed the voting timeline

although east coasy highschool would have been my vote regardless so is whatwever lol


I counted you as a:

1. ECZ
2. Duke
3. (left blank)


if pressed i would have gone with central high school and michigan/georgetown as honorable mentions

after duke the other colleges depth of talent becomes much less inpressive imo than top talent becomes much more bigger part of the deal and top heavy areas like central high school become compwtitive
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#6 » by jalengreen » Thu Jun 9, 2022 12:50 am

trex_8063 wrote:Hey again. Any chance you'd post the WS data you've been doing for UCLA and UNC?


Here's the data for the fifty colleges with the most NBA/ABA win shares.

Code: Select all

+----------------+---------+----------+---------+-----------+------------+
| College        | Players | Total WS | Mean WS | Median WS | Wgt Avg WS |
+----------------+---------+----------+---------+-----------+------------+
| UNC            | 99      | 2184.8   | 22.1    | 6.5       | 50.6       |
| UCLA           | 99      | 2084.9   | 21.1    | 4.8       | 50.5       |
| Kentucky       | 125     | 1854.2   | 14.8    | 4.2       | 33.6       |
| Duke           | 91      | 1562.4   | 17.2    | 7.2       | 38.3       |
| Kansas         | 81      | 1337.1   | 16.5    | 2.3       | 42.8       |
| Arizona        | 62      | 974.3    | 15.7    | 4.7       | 39.6       |
| Ohio State     | 50      | 965.4    | 19.3    | 6.9       | 41.8       |
| Indiana        | 68      | 949.7    | 14.0    | 5.1       | 32.6       |
| Michigan State | 52      | 899.5    | 17.3    | 4.6       | 45.0       |
| Michigan       | 62      | 897.7    | 14.5    | 4.0       | 34.2       |
| UConn          | 39      | 828.9    | 21.3    | 4.8       | 48.1       |
| Georgetown     | 49      | 819.9    | 16.7    | 0.9       | 50.0       |
| Georgia Tech   | 41      | 797.7    | 19.5    | 5.3       | 41.5       |
| Wake Forest    | 33      | 787.7    | 23.9    | 3.1       | 63.3       |
| Notre Dame     | 60      | 769.2    | 12.8    | 2.9       | 34.9       |
| Minnesota      | 50      | 750.7    | 15.0    | 3.9       | 35.1       |
| Texas          | 37      | 746.6    | 20.2    | 9.1       | 44.6       |
| USC            | 46      | 712      | 15.5    | 4.3       | 36.5       |
| Villanova      | 52      | 710.2    | 13.7    | 3.1       | 32.6       |
| Houston        | 38      | 708.5    | 18.6    | 2.4       | 55.9       |
| Illinois       | 46      | 695.9    | 15.1    | 2.9       | 42.2       |
| Marquette      | 43      | 671.9    | 15.6    | 2.4       | 42.5       |
| LSU            | 50      | 670.1    | 13.4    | 1.7       | 42.9       |
| Florida        | 35      | 666.3    | 19.0    | 2.6       | 41.6       |
| St. John's     | 55      | 664      | 12.1    | 1.9       | 37.4       |
| Maryland       | 45      | 656.7    | 14.6    | 2.9       | 36.1       |
| DePaul         | 38      | 615      | 16.2    | 1.5       | 43.3       |
| Louisville     | 63      | 611.9    | 9.7     | 0.5       | 26.8       |
| UNLV           | 41      | 600.8    | 14.7    | 4.4       | 38.7       |
| Clemson        | 20      | 581.5    | 29.1    | 16.0      | 60.5       |
| Washington     | 41      | 573.7    | 14.0    | 7.4       | 30.7       |
| Alabama        | 33      | 569.2    | 17.2    | 6.4       | 36.6       |
| Cincinnati     | 39      | 564.3    | 14.5    | 1.8       | 39.2       |
| Arizona State  | 31      | 558.7    | 18.0    | 4.0       | 42.4       |
| Syracuse       | 54      | 554.4    | 10.3    | 0.6       | 33.1       |
| Oregon State   | 30      | 543.5    | 18.1    | 1.3       | 55.6       |
| California     | 37      | 542.3    | 14.7    | 2.1       | 45.7       |
| Arkansas       | 36      | 524.6    | 14.6    | 3.6       | 32.7       |
| Oklahoma       | 26      | 523.5    | 20.1    | 11.5      | 41.4       |
| Stanford       | 34      | 515.2    | 15.2    | 6.6       | 28.5       |
| Iowa           | 34      | 502      | 14.8    | 1.6       | 34.0       |
| Auburn         | 28      | 498.4    | 17.8    | 2.0       | 47.5       |
| Tennessee      | 44      | 488.4    | 11.1    | 0.4       | 40.7       |
| Utah           | 31      | 483.3    | 15.6    | 6.3       | 40.5       |
| Providence     | 31      | 483      | 15.6    | 3.9       | 39.1       |
| Louisiana Tech | 9       | 469.6    | 52.2    | 19.1      | 113.5      |
| NC State       | 50      | 442.5    | 8.9     | 0.5       | 26.5       |
| San Francisco  | 25      | 429.2    | 17.2    | 4.2       | 40.2       |
| Purdue         | 39      | 416.7    | 10.7    | 0.4       | 29.9       |
| Colorado       | 27      | 384.5    | 14.2    | 2.9       | 39.3       |
+----------------+---------+----------+---------+-----------+------------+
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#7 » by jalengreen » Thu Jun 9, 2022 9:16 pm

1. Duke

Self-explanatory at this point I think

Now I need to narrow down my list of top contenders for the next spots.

East Central vs. Wake Forest

I think East Central is up there and certainly in the running - however I've chosen to fully attribute Kevin Garnett to East Coast and Marc Gasol to Spain which will have a knock on my evaluation of East Central. I believe the total WS mentioned by trex for East Central was 731.8 including portions of Garnett and Gasol's careers which would leave it at 643.6.

That leaves East Central (for me) with a dominant duo of LeBron and Kobe, followed by players including Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, Shaun Livingston, Joe Graboski, and Eddy Curry.

I think a reasonable comparison would be Wake Forest: Led by a dominant duo of Tim Duncan and Chris Paul followed by names like Muggsy Bogues, Jeff Teague, Rodney Rogers, Al-Farouq Aminu, Josh Howard, James Johnson, John Collins, Len Chappell.

Given my decision to leave Garnett/Gasol out of this region, I think Wake Forest would slide in ahead of East Central for me as I favor the depth of quality players after their respective legendary duos. I do think KG/Gasol would be more than enough to make up the difference if I hadn't made that decision.

I'd probably put Texas (Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Slater Martin, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, PJ Tucker, DJ Augustin, LaSalle Thompson, Myles Turner, Cory Joseph, Johnny Moore, Jarrett Allen) behind East Central, though...

--

Arizona vs. Indiana

Overview:

62 total players and 974 total WS for Arizona (mean 15.7, median 4.7, wa 39.6)
68 total players and 950 total WS for Indiana (mean 14.0, median 5.1, wa 32.6)

And here's a plot of each school's number of players (Y) with more than (X) number of career win shares to see if the distribution of players is much different between schools.

Image

Not much difference seen here. Seems like the simple win share analysis isn't going to be of much help distinguishing between the schools here.

A look at the top players for each school:

Arizona: Jason Terry, Andre Iguodala, Richard Jefferson, Mike Bibby, Sean Elliott, Damon Stoudamire, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Kerr, Channing Frye, Chris Mills, Aaron Gordon, Deandre Ayton

Indiana: Walt Bellamy, Isiah Thomas, Dick Van Arsdale, George McGinnis, Jon McGlocklin, Tom Van Arsdale, Eric Gordon, Mike Woodson, Kent Benson, Cody Zeller, Alan Henderson, John Logan, Victor Oladipo, OG Anunoby

I think the Hall of Fame legacies of guys like Bellamy, Zeke, and McGinnis makes them the pick over Jet/Iggy/RJ even with their hefty win share totals.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#8 » by jalengreen » Thu Jun 9, 2022 9:34 pm

I also need to strongly consider Michigan State at this point. Win shares underrate Draymond and what he's accomplished and Magic's legacy speaks for itself.

UConn looks strong too with Ray Allen, Cliff Robinson, Rip Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Kemba, Drummond, Caron Butler. I guess the comparison would be:

Magic Johnson, Draymond Green, Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson, Steve Smith, Johnny Green, Ralph Simpson, Morris Peterson, Eric Snow, JJJ [...]

versus

Ray Allen, Cliff Robinson, Rip Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker, Caron Butler, Donyell Marshall, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon [...]

I don't see a big enough difference in depth to make up for the advantage of having Magic Johnson.

Of the six schools I just considered (E. Central, Wake Forest, Arizona, Indiana, Michigan St., UConn), I think my ranking might be..

Wake Forest > East Central > Indiana > Michigan State > Arizona > UConn

Gee this is really tight stuff, though. I need to consider Ohio State and Georgetown as well.. and you can easily argue that I'm putting Wake/EC too high.

Quick glance at Ohio State and they look strong... Havlicek, Conley, Jerry Lucas, Neil Johnston, Arnie Risen, Michael Redd

and Georgetown is monstrous being led by Ewing, Iverson, Mourning, and Mutombo. Definitely gotta throw them in the mix. That's 4 guys in the PC Top 70 coming from the same school, I don't think any of the remaining schools have more than two. Could easily throw them at #2 on my ballot behind Duke honestly
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 9, 2022 11:09 pm

jalengreen wrote:I also need to strongly consider Michigan State at this point. Win shares underrate Draymond and what he's accomplished and Magic's legacy speaks for itself.

UConn looks strong too with Ray Allen, Cliff Robinson, Rip Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Kemba, Drummond, Caron Butler. I guess the comparison would be:

Magic Johnson, Draymond Green, Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson, Steve Smith, Johnny Green, Ralph Simpson, Morris Peterson, Eric Snow, JJJ [...]

versus

Ray Allen, Cliff Robinson, Rip Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker, Caron Butler, Donyell Marshall, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon [...]

I don't see a big enough difference in depth to make up for the advantage of having Magic Johnson.

Of the six schools I just considered (E. Central, Wake Forest, Arizona, Indiana, Michigan St., UConn), I think my ranking might be..

Wake Forest > East Central > Indiana > Michigan State > Arizona > UConn

Gee this is really tight stuff, though. I need to consider Ohio State and Georgetown as well.. and you can easily argue that I'm putting Wake/EC too high.

Quick glance at Ohio State and they look strong... Havlicek, Conley, Jerry Lucas, Neil Johnston, Arnie Risen, Michael Redd

and Georgetown is monstrous being led by Ewing, Iverson, Mourning, and Mutombo. Definitely gotta throw them in the mix. That's 4 guys in the PC Top 70 coming from the same school, I don't think any of the remaining schools have more than two. Could easily throw them at #2 on my ballot behind Duke honestly


It IS super-tight.

I think Arizona looks really strong, actually. They don't really have a great all-timer, but their depth with "really good" careers and very solid journeyman role players is pretty impressive:

Iggy, Agent Zero, Jason Terry, Mike Bibby, Richard Jefferson, DeAndre Ayton, Steve Kerr, Sean Elliott, Damon Stoudamire, Channing Frye, Aaron Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Lauri Markkanen, Solomon Hill, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Eric Money, Chase Buginger, Jordan Hill, Sean Rooks, Stanley Johnson, Derrick Williams, Judd Buechler, TJ McConnell, Chris Mills [he's split between AZ and Kentucky], Bison Dele [he's split between AZ and Maryland], Luke Walton.

Wake Forest and Georgetown looking really good to me too. Michigan State, though.......yeah, can't really go wrong there (after Duke gets in, obviously).
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #6 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:51 pm

1. Duke

We've all indicated we're on the same page with the top pick.

After that, I'm not sure: Michigan State, Wake Forest, Arizona, Georgetown, East-Central Zone......these all look like good options for 2nd and 3rd ballots. Ohio State reasonably strong, too.

Michigan, surprisingly, doesn't look like they are a strong top 8 [or even top 10] candidate. Fringe top-10, at best; though could be argued down into the 16-18 range, too.

Anyway, I don't need to make a decision on my 2nd/3rd ballots for this thread. We're all agreed Duke runs away with this spot.
Next thread we'll all have to take a stand with somebody, though. I think ALL the remaining spots will be highly contentious.
I've been super-busy, and next week doesn't look much better, but I'll try to keep the project moving.

Calling #6, though.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

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