Kevin Pelton's top 30 prospects (2022 draft)

[PrimeThyme]

Considering our FO has seemingly relied heavily on Pelton's WARP projections in the past, I figured this might make for an interesting discussion.


https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/34055752/2022-nba-draft-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting

Top 30 prospects:

Spoiler:

1)Chet Holmgren
Power forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.4 WARP

There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at both ends even if he's not the kind of dominant creator who usually ranks atop draft boards.

2)Jabari Smith
Power forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 3.3 WARP

The one minor concern about Smith as a top prospect is his solid but unspectacular efficiency. Smith's projected .545 true shooting percentage as an NBA rookie is weaker than league average (.566). To become the dominant scorer he's got the potential to be, Smith will have to turn more of his long 2-point attempts (he shot 38.5% on 2s outside 17 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking) into 3s, which he made at a 42% clip -- or an effective field-goal percentage of 63% when accounting for the extra point.

3)Keegan Murray
4)AJ Griffin
5)Dyson Daniels
6)Walker Kessler
7)Bennedict Mathurin
8)Tari Eason
9)Jeremy Sochan
10)Shaedon Sharpe

11) Paolo Banchero
Power forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

While the other two top prospects in this year's rankings are 1-2 overall in the consensus projections, Banchero falls outside the top 10 because of his unspectacular stats-only projection. Banchero wasn't as efficient as Holmgren and Smith. He was more accurate on long 2s than Smith (45%, per Synergy Sports) but not nearly as good from 3-point range (34%). Improvement there will help Banchero become an elite scorer. He could also stand to improve his impact on defense.

12)Jaden Ivey
13)Jalen Duren
14)Kennedy Chandler
15)Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16)Christian Braun
17)Malaki Branham
18)Mark Williams
19)Trevor Keels
20)Johnny Davis
21)Peyton Watson
22)Blake Wesley
23)Hyunjung Lee
24)Gabriele Procida
25)Jabari Walker
26)Josh Minott
27)Dalen Terry
28)TyTy Washington
29)Jacob Gilyard
30)EJ Liddell

For reference, here's how Chet/Bari place in Pelton's all-time rankings (dating back to 2006):

Spoiler:

1)Luka Doncic - 6.1
2)Anthony Davis - 5.5
3)Kenneth Faried - 5.1
4)Dejuan Blair - 5.0
5)LaMelo Ball - 4.8
6)Zion Williamson - 4.7
7)Kevin Love - 4.6
8)Chet Holmgren - 4.4
9)Blake Griffin - 4.2
10)James Harden - 4.2
11)Kyrie Irving - 4.2
12)Alperen Sengun - 4.2
13)DeMarcus Cousins - 4.1
14)Steph Curry - 3.9
15)Kevin Durant - 3.7
16)Michael Beasley - 3.7
17)Ricky Rubio 3.7
18)Greg Oden - 3.6
19)Lonzo Ball - 3.6
20)Marcus Smart - 3.6
21)Nerlens Noel - 3.6
22)Tyrus Thomas - 3.6
23)Zhou Qi - 3.5
24)Tyrese Haliburton - 3.4
25)Dragan Bender - 3.4
26)Clint Capela - 3.4
27)Jabari Smith - 3.3
28)D'Angelo Russell - 3.3
29)Jusuf Nurkic - 3.3
30) Dante Exum - 3.3
31)Derrick Williams - 3.3
32)Gordon Hayward - 3.3
33)Greg Monroe - 3.3

I've sort of been in the camp that Chet would/will be the pick on draft night. I think he is still exactly what this FO looks for in a player, && the WARP projections seem to back that up. If he blows away his workout next week I would not be shocked in the slightest to see momentum swing back in his favor. Its going to be a very interesting two weeks.

[GelbeWand09]

The only non great players in the top 11 around Chet, are undersized offensive bigs, with no defense. I have no doubt Chet ends up being the biggest impact player of this draft class if his body holds up & he gains some weight. He probably wont be the all time high scorer of this draft class, but his teams gonna be in the playoffs almost every year after he settled in.

[RookieStar]

I think it's a lose-lose situation for us.

We pick JS and Chet blows up, you know people are gonna be asking what our GMs were smoking when there were so many indications that he is going to be a star. Everyone followed him since high school, he save Team USA u9 etc etc

We pick Chet and JS leads his team and is known to be one of the best shooters in the league. People are gonna be asking what was in our minds when JS was the perfect fit for us. Especially in an era where shooting 3s is king.

[BlueBlazer]

I think it's a lose-lose situation for us.

We pick JS and Chet blows up, you know people are gonna be asking what our GMs were smoking when there were so many indications that he is going to be a star. Everyone followed him since high school, he save Team USA u9 etc etc

We pick Chet and JS leads his team and is known to be one of the best shooters in the league. People are gonna be asking what was in our minds when JS was the perfect fit for us. Especially in an era where shooting 3s is king.

This is exactly how I feel.

[basketballRob]

Considering our FO has seemingly relied heavily on Pelton's WARP projections in the past, I figured this might make for an interesting discussion.


https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/34055752/2022-nba-draft-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting

Top 30 prospects:

Spoiler:

1)Chet Holmgren
Power forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.4 WARP

There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at both ends even if he's not the kind of dominant creator who usually ranks atop draft boards.

2)Jabari Smith
Power forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 3.3 WARP

The one minor concern about Smith as a top prospect is his solid but unspectacular efficiency. Smith's projected .545 true shooting percentage as an NBA rookie is weaker than league average (.566). To become the dominant scorer he's got the potential to be, Smith will have to turn more of his long 2-point attempts (he shot 38.5% on 2s outside 17 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking) into 3s, which he made at a 42% clip -- or an effective field-goal percentage of 63% when accounting for the extra point.

3)Keegan Murray
4)AJ Griffin
5)Dyson Daniels
6)Walker Kessler
7)Bennedict Mathurin
8)Tari Eason
9)Jeremy Sochan
10)Shaedon Sharpe

11) Paolo Banchero
Power forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

While the other two top prospects in this year's rankings are 1-2 overall in the consensus projections, Banchero falls outside the top 10 because of his unspectacular stats-only projection. Banchero wasn't as efficient as Holmgren and Smith. He was more accurate on long 2s than Smith (45%, per Synergy Sports) but not nearly as good from 3-point range (34%). Improvement there will help Banchero become an elite scorer. He could also stand to improve his impact on defense.

12)Jaden Ivey
13)Jalen Duren
14)Kennedy Chandler
15)Patrick Baldwin Jr.
16)Christian Braun
17)Malaki Branham
18)Mark Williams
19)Trevor Keels
20)Johnny Davis
21)Peyton Watson
22)Blake Wesley
23)Hyunjung Lee
24)Gabriele Procida
25)Jabari Walker
26)Josh Minott
27)Dalen Terry
28)TyTy Washington
29)Jacob Gilyard
30)EJ Liddell

For reference, here's how Chet/Bari place in Pelton's all-time rankings (dating back to 2006):

Spoiler:

1)Luka Doncic - 6.1
2)Anthony Davis - 5.5
3)Kenneth Faried - 5.1
4)Dejuan Blair - 5.0
5)LaMelo Ball - 4.8
6)Zion Williamson - 4.7
7)Kevin Love - 4.6
8)Chet Holmgren - 4.4
9)Blake Griffin - 4.2
10)James Harden - 4.2
11)Kyrie Irving - 4.2
12)Alperen Sengun - 4.2
13)DeMarcus Cousins - 4.1
14)Steph Curry - 3.9
15)Kevin Durant - 3.7
16)Michael Beasley - 3.7
17)Ricky Rubio 3.7
18)Greg Oden - 3.6
19)Lonzo Ball - 3.6
20)Marcus Smart - 3.6
21)Nerlens Noel - 3.6
22)Tyrus Thomas - 3.6
23)Zhou Qi - 3.5
24)Tyrese Haliburton - 3.4
25)Dragan Bender - 3.4
26)Clint Capela - 3.4
27)Jabari Smith - 3.3
28)D'Angelo Russell - 3.3
29)Jusuf Nurkic - 3.3
30) Dante Exum - 3.3
31)Derrick Williams - 3.3
32)Gordon Hayward - 3.3
33)Greg Monroe - 3.3

I've sort of been in the camp that Chet would/will be the pick on draft night. I think he is still exactly what this FO looks for in a player, && the WARP projections seem to back that up. If he blows away his workout next week I would not be shocked in the slightest to see momentum swing back in his favor. Its going to be a very interesting two weeks.

Smith is a year younger and played in a tougher conference.

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[jonbob17]

I haven't been keeping up with the mock drafts any chance any of these guys are there at our 2nd rounders, or late first if we trade back in.
Braun
Branham
Josh Minott
Terry

[Def Swami]

I think it's a lose-lose situation for us.

We pick JS and Chet blows up, you know people are gonna be asking what our GMs were smoking when there were so many indications that he is going to be a star. Everyone followed him since high school, he save Team USA u9 etc etc

We pick Chet and JS leads his team and is known to be one of the best shooters in the league. People are gonna be asking what was in our minds when JS was the perfect fit for us. Especially in an era where shooting 3s is king.

This is exactly how I feel.

I feel like both Chet and Smith are going to suck, and Banchero is going to end up being great on the Rockets.

[RookieStar]

I think it's a lose-lose situation for us.

We pick JS and Chet blows up, you know people are gonna be asking what our GMs were smoking when there were so many indications that he is going to be a star. Everyone followed him since high school, he save Team USA u9 etc etc

We pick Chet and JS leads his team and is known to be one of the best shooters in the league. People are gonna be asking what was in our minds when JS was the perfect fit for us. Especially in an era where shooting 3s is king.

This is exactly how I feel.

I feel like both Chet and Smith are going to suck, and Banchero is going to end up being great on the Rockets.

Lol i have that feeling but replace Paolo's name with Ivey

[89Magicfan]

I think it's a lose-lose situation for us.

We pick JS and Chet blows up, you know people are gonna be asking what our GMs were smoking when there were so many indications that he is going to be a star. Everyone followed him since high school, he save Team USA u9 etc etc

We pick Chet and JS leads his team and is known to be one of the best shooters in the league. People are gonna be asking what was in our minds when JS was the perfect fit for us. Especially in an era where shooting 3s is king.

This is exactly how I feel.

I feel like both Chet and Smith are going to suck, and Banchero is going to end up being great on the Rockets.

Lol trade for Mitchell

[Knightro]

Give me Chet!

[RookieStar]

Give me Chet!

Are you all in on his bandwagon already?

[Knightro]

Give me Chet!

Are you all in on his bandwagon already?

I would pick him No. 1 overall, yes.

[Skybox]

Excellent…now we have a dozen threads to rehash same thoughts on the big 3

[RookieStar]

Give me Chet!

Are you all in on his bandwagon already?

I would pick him No. 1 overall, yes.

Right now Chet has a hair-thin lead over Jabari and a 10lbs less with amazing workout from Paolo for my choice.

I still have no clear decision and the workout( or lack of videos and smoke ) of JS's performance isn't helping. Lol

[fendilim]

Yeah, all indications points to Chet being the best player. While Jabari is the best fit.

I really do think this will boil down to Chet’s draft workout next week. If Chet can show his shooting compared to Jabari is at par and quite negligible, I think Chet will be the pick.

[basketballRob]

Jabari please.

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[tiderulz]

Yeah, all indications points to Chet being the best player. While Jabari is the best fit.

I really do think this will boil down to Chet’s draft workout next week. If Chet can show his shooting compared to Jabari is at par and quite negligible, I think Chet will be the pick.

do you see Chet as a #1 or #2 option on a winning team? I do not. I see him more as a Gobert type with better offensive skills, but with a constant injury risk unless he can add weight.

[basketballRob]

Yeah, all indications points to Chet being the best player. While Jabari is the best fit.

I really do think this will boil down to Chet’s draft workout next week. If Chet can show his shooting compared to Jabari is at par and quite negligible, I think Chet will be the pick.

do you see Chet as a #1 or #2 option on a winning team? I do not. I see him more as a Gobert type with better offensive skills, but with a constant injury risk unless he can add weight.

We really don't know what Chet will look like in the NBA.

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[tiderulz]

Yeah, all indications points to Chet being the best player. While Jabari is the best fit.

I really do think this will boil down to Chet’s draft workout next week. If Chet can show his shooting compared to Jabari is at par and quite negligible, I think Chet will be the pick.

do you see Chet as a #1 or #2 option on a winning team? I do not. I see him more as a Gobert type with better offensive skills, but with a constant injury risk unless he can add weight.

We really don't know what Chet will look like in the NBA.

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we dont know what anyone will look like in the NBA until they get there. just giving my opinion.

[jonbob17]

do you see Chet as a #1 or #2 option on a winning team? I do not. I see him more as a Gobert type with better offensive skills, but with a constant injury risk unless he can add weight.

We really don't know what Chet will look like in the NBA.

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we dont know what anyone will look like in the NBA until they get there. just giving my opinion.

You never know. The higher the pick the likelier the payoff.

Not too long ago a large contingent of vocal Magic fans wanted Nesmith as a surefire shooter. 31.8% career 3 point shooter.
Bouknight...gulp

we're going to be getting a good player this year regardless of who they take at 1