2021-2022 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Kobblehead]

I would love it if Morey just bought a couple of second rounders and just loaded up on guys like Juzang and Gillespie types and just dumped Milton/Joe/Korkmaz etc. I think we need an overhaul of the 6-15 guys.

[mjkvol]

I think I'm settling into the Liddell/Moore pathing unless Hardy/Branham/Eason fall. Collect your Grant Williams / Jae Crowder / PJ Tucker type playoff contributor and live to fight another day.

This is where I'm at as well. Love all the analysis here, and I get the 'draft for upside' 1st round strategy and believe that in most cases it is the way to go. We aren't in the 'most cases' category right now - if we keep the pick, we need a kid who can come in and offer us something we need that even Glenn would have to use as a rotation role player from day one. I like taking a kid like Liddell, who works hard and is as NBA ready as anyone who might be around at #23.

[Kobblehead]

I just think it's likely that in-house Paul Reed enters the rotation at PF before Liddell ever sees the court. And then you burned a 1st rounder on a college veteran F role player who can't guard on the perimeter.

I think we need to take the approach that Dr. Glenn isn't going to play whoever we draft this year anyway (he didn't really with Maxey in year 1, he doesn't even know Springer's name). And just draft the most skilled 19 year old on the board with scoring upside. Or draft a young defensive grinder with as much offensive upside as possible (someone like Minott maybe).

If we draft a 21-22 year old "nba ready" guy, I think it's a questionable use of our asset because the odds are, he's not playing anyway.

[Negrodamus]

PJ Tucker, selected second round:
Raptors, Israel, Ukraine, Greece, Italy, Germany. Then, at the age of 27, he finally took off with the Suns.

Jae Crowder:
sparse minutes with the Mavericks for 3 years, then at the age of 25, took off with the Celtics

Reggie Bullock:
Clippers, Suns, then finally at 26 he started to become a contributor in Detroit

Finney Smith:
Mavs the whole way, but first 3 seasons he was pretty useless


If you think Liddell has an upside of being a star or that Wendell Moore could turn into Brogdon, I'm all for your selection (and their stats do actually pass what I'm looking for). But if the aim is to grab a role player to immediately help Embiid, then the priority need to be shifted, imo. Really Grant Williams is the anomaly as one of these role players and he didn't even really take off until this year, his third year.

[Kobblehead]

Of all the 21+ year old dudes mocked in round 1, I like to ask myself if I would have drafted them after their freshman year.

Keegan Murray - nah
Tari Eason - maybe, as a defensive specialist
Ochai Agbaji - nah
E.J. Liddell - nah
Jalen Williams - maybe, as a defensive G with some offensive upside

[Negrodamus]

While I'm glad we have Embiid, obviously, if I were any of the other playoff teams at the end of the second round, I'd happily take Christian Koloko and watch him outpace most of the centers in this draft. Yea, he's 22, but his numbers are ridiculous and he's clearly a late bloomer from Africa. 43% on 2pt jumpers with 73% FT? He'll continue to stretch the floor while becoming a force on defense.

[Arsenal]

I'm not expecting anyone we pick to come in and be the answer right away. We need to sign a vet for that.

However a guy like Liddell or Eason is a better long-term fit for our roster, filling a crucial need, even if it takes them a couple years to break the rotation.

So you really need to think a guy like McGowans or Rollins has much more star equity to take them instead. And even so, you're looking at even more time before they crack the rotation.

[Negrodamus]

I'm not expecting anyone we pick to come in and be the answer right away. We need to sign a vet for that.

However a guy like Liddell or Eason is a better long-term fit for our roster, filling a crucial need, even if it takes them a couple years to break the rotation.

So you really need to think a guy like McGowans or Rollins has much more star equity to take them instead. And even so, you're looking at even more time before they crack the rotation.

I mean, it's pretty impossible to know if McGowans or Rollins will pan out. We're wrong constantly in regards to guys we love at the end of the first round. But my retort to your point is do you want to wait 3 years for a role player to pan out, or do you want the chance at a low-level star panning out in the same amount of time? Even if the latter is more unlikely, it's easier to cut ties and move on to another prospect or pick up a PJ Tucker in free agency.

This entire situation could blow up in two years (aging Harden, injury prone Embiid) and we'll end up with... Grant Williams? We did the older role playing pick in Thybulle and now we're looking to move his ass this offseason so we're not stuck with the decision of extending him or letting him leave for nothing.

[76ciology]

Kessler or Lidell.

- I find kessler to be very agile for his size.
- You probably can play some spurts of kessler-Embiid. If star align, maybe even high volume of minutes
-Kessler can anchor your defense with Maxey-Harden doing damage when Embiid is out.

[Negrodamus]

Kessler or Lidell.

I am a bit concerned about Kessler's tiny hands, but he did put up nasty production this year. I have zero faith that his shot is ever going to translate.

[76ciology]

Kessler or Lidell.

I am a bit concerned about Kessler's tiny hands, but he did put up nasty production this year. I have zero faith that his shot is ever going to translate.

I think he can possibly play a Capela type role for Harden, without Embiid.

I like Kessler a lot. I just knew who he was literally just around 30 mins ago lol

But his numbers and eye test checks out for me

[76ciology]

Third option behind Kessler and Lidell.

Jalen Williams or Kaloko (good find Negrodamus)

[76ciology]

If Magic drafts Jabari, I’d trade Reed or Bassey + 23rd pick for Bamba.

[Mik317]

Bamba is a FA ,no?

[Negrodamus]

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I'll give my ranking based on guys from 18 down based solely on statistics, no eye test. Give our 23rd pick a five pick variance.

Fit all my criteria:
(crickets)

- TyTy Washington (the only thing he's short a little is FTr, but I weigh that a little less with each passing year, could also be assisted less/take more shots at the basket/)

Fit most of my criteria:

Tier 1
- Ryan Rollins (just short of the OBPM to put in "all my criteria", otherwise fits all categories)

- Jalen Williams (just short on STL% which I can look past; would have liked it if he had a huge OBPM to counter his mediocre DBPM)

- Jaden Hardy (bad FTr, bad percentages, but very good STL%, AST%, scoring production)

- Wendell Moore (Good BPM, STL%, FTr, 3PAr, AST%, shooting % across the board; missing out on scoring volume, assist at the rim/3)

Tier 2
- EJ Liddell (Good BPM, FTr, USG%, PER, 3PAr, most shooting % across the board; missing out on STL%, assist at the rim/3)

- Justin Lewis (Higher DBPM to appease me, just missed STL%, is on the cusp of fitting most criteria, don't like his assisted baskets)


Fits a lot of my criteria:

- Andrew Nembhard (Terrible FTr, not enough scoring volume)

- Dalen Terry (misses on scoring volume by a lot, bad FT% for a guard, would like a higher FTr, assisted a lot from everywhere)

Still considering:

- Blake Wesley (he was atrocious this year, but was assisted on very little. Have to believe he'll improve at only 19)

- Bryce McGowans (scoring volume, but that's about it)

I gave Hardy a bump because he's playing grown men instead of obliterating mid majors to bump up his stock. Once again, this is not factoring in eye test or length/athleticism.

[Arsenal]

I'm not expecting anyone we pick to come in and be the answer right away. We need to sign a vet for that.

However a guy like Liddell or Eason is a better long-term fit for our roster, filling a crucial need, even if it takes them a couple years to break the rotation.

So you really need to think a guy like McGowans or Rollins has much more star equity to take them instead. And even so, you're looking at even more time before they crack the rotation.

I mean, it's pretty impossible to know if McGowans or Rollins will pan out. We're wrong constantly in regards to guys we love at the end of the first round. But my retort to your point is do you want to wait 3 years for a role player to pan out, or do you want the chance at a low-level star panning out in the same amount of time? Even if the latter is more unlikely, it's easier to cut ties and move on to another prospect or pick up a PJ Tucker in free agency.

This entire situation could blow up in two years (aging Harden, injury prone Embiid) and we'll end up with... Grant Williams? We did the older role playing pick in Thybulle and now we're looking to move his ass this offseason so we're not stuck with the decision of extending him or letting him leave for nothing.

As much as we complain, Matisse Thybulle was a good pick. And is unlikely to break the bank in his next contract either since he has no star equity.

Overall it's a false dichotomy to say the choice is between waiting 3 years for a role player or waiting 3 years for a (quasi)star. Only superstars move the needed once they're on a 2nd contract. If a player plateaus at quasi-star level (e.g. Wiggins, Simmons, Tobias etc.) then it's usually worse than if they plateau as a defined role player because they end up overpaid on their 2nd contract.

[Negrodamus]

I'm not expecting anyone we pick to come in and be the answer right away. We need to sign a vet for that.

However a guy like Liddell or Eason is a better long-term fit for our roster, filling a crucial need, even if it takes them a couple years to break the rotation.

So you really need to think a guy like McGowans or Rollins has much more star equity to take them instead. And even so, you're looking at even more time before they crack the rotation.

I mean, it's pretty impossible to know if McGowans or Rollins will pan out. We're wrong constantly in regards to guys we love at the end of the first round. But my retort to your point is do you want to wait 3 years for a role player to pan out, or do you want the chance at a low-level star panning out in the same amount of time? Even if the latter is more unlikely, it's easier to cut ties and move on to another prospect or pick up a PJ Tucker in free agency.

This entire situation could blow up in two years (aging Harden, injury prone Embiid) and we'll end up with... Grant Williams? We did the older role playing pick in Thybulle and now we're looking to move his ass this offseason so we're not stuck with the decision of extending him or letting him leave for nothing.

As much as we complain, Matisse Thybulle was a good pick. And is unlikely to break the bank in his next contract either since he has no star equity.

Overall it's a false dichotomy to say the choice is between waiting 3 years for a role player or waiting 3 years for a (quasi)star. Only superstars move the needed once they're on a 2nd contract. If a player plateaus at quasi-star level (e.g. Wiggins, Simmons, Tobias etc.) then it's usually worse than if they plateau as a defined role player because they end up overpaid on their 2nd contract.

I'll take the overpaid quasi star who is producing like a quasi star (like the two former first overall picks you mentioned, and Tobias Harris) than a guy who will bounce around the league and will finally see the light when he's on a vet minimum just trying to stay alive in the NBA. We can get that guy this offseason. We can't sign a quasi star, like our former 21st pick Tyrese Maxey, this offseason because we don't have the money.

Also, Andrew Wiggins, Khris Middleton, Kyle Kuzma, Pascal Siakim/Kyle Lowry, they all either won or went to the Finals without being superstars. I'm fine with trying to get just stars.

EDIT: And even if you look at the worst case scenario in this conversation, Tobias Harris, he was drafted by the Bucks and was used in a fairly consequential trade to add a veteran (JJ Redick after his Finals run in Orlando), was then traded from the Bucks to Pistons for pieces, then the Pistons used him as a cornerstone to make a trade for Blake Griffin (who was still thought to be not completely washed yet). Some of these moves panned out, some didn't, but at the end of the day, Tobias had a sizable amount of value bopping around the league before he was handed a fat contract by Elton Brand. Grant Williams isn't going to be traded for any star in the near future.

[Negrodamus]

The more I look into Blake Wesley, the more I'm seeing compelling parallels to Dejounte Murray.

[Kobblehead]

I've been a huge fan of Wesley/Terquavion as three and D tiny Bones Hyland types. Both have questionable skill level, despite their willingness to shoot, though.

[stormi]

I take Tyty if he's sitting there at 23.

He can sorta be like what Fultz is in Orlando right now with his crafiness and superb playmaking, and he's a better defender and I trust his fundamentals to be a good shooter down the line.