Your 2022 NBA Draft Prospect

[Manocad]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10037911-nba-exec-rips-shaedon-sharpes-high-draft-stock-show-me-where-the-5-star-s--t-is

Wish Troy Weaver said this

I doubt the guy that said it is the only NBA GM thinking it, which Weaver may be.

I'm not one of the people here who purports to not only know what Weaver is thinking but know more than Weaver. I assume that Weaver has a better take on draft picks and building an NBA team than I do so if he takes Sharpe, I'm fine with it. If he doesn't take Sharpe, I'm fine with it. No matter who he takes, I'm fine with it.

Even Johnny Davis?

Ok, you got me there.

The assumption there of course is one of Ivey, Murray, or Sharpe will be the pick.

[Jsindto]

I doubt the guy that said it is the only NBA GM thinking it, which Weaver may be.

I'm not one of the people here who purports to not only know what Weaver is thinking but know more than Weaver. I assume that Weaver has a better take on draft picks and building an NBA team than I do so if he takes Sharpe, I'm fine with it. If he doesn't take Sharpe, I'm fine with it. No matter who he takes, I'm fine with it.

Even Johnny Davis?

Ok, you got me there.

The assumption there of course is one of Ivey, Murray, or Sharpe will be the pick.

I think Mathurin is a possibility too. Vegas thinks Daniels too, but I don't think that's realistic unless they trade Grant for a top 10 pick and use that on him.

[whitehops]

two weeks to go! rumours/smokescreens are going to be flying around like crazy until draft night.

[MotownMadness]

Whoever's left of Murray or Ivey will be the pick

[zeebneeb]

Whoever's left of Murray or Ivey will be the pick

Honestly, at this point if the pick is anyone other then, in order;

Murray
Ivey
Sharpe

Most people will be kinda stunned. This is barring a trade of course which could change things.

[Spider156]

It’s Ivey or Murray. As much as we love involving Sharpe and Mathurin I think it’s definitely between those two players and that’s more than fine because both players are great. I’m very excited to see how we use our cap space.

[FloridaMan78]

It’s Ivey or Murray. As much as we love involving Sharpe and Mathurin I think it’s definitely between those two players and that’s more than fine because both players are great. I’m very excited to see how we use our cap space.

Yea my guess is Ivey or Murray.

Not super high on Murray, I think he’ll be solid, but that would mean Grant should be traded. I think we’ll get a decent player or mid round draft pick. I think there will be a good player that drops to 12-16.

I’m guessing a guard or center if we draft Murray. I’d be happy with any of Mark Williams, Johnathan Davis, Ty Ty Washington.

[ElectricMayhem]

If the Pistons can't get anything of value in a Grant trade, I don't see a problem with keeping Grant around for the year and having Murray play behind him and learn from him. There's value in that. There's also value in getting a good haul for Grant, but who knows if that is actually on the table. I get that losing Grant for nothing is not ideal, but losing him for a negligible part this year versus having him for another year to mentor a rookie? I'd take the latter IF those are the options.

As for whether we should pick Murray - I'm higher on Mathurin, but I also know I've done no scouting work and trust Weaver and his team more than myself.

[LSV]

This would be my pick for the draft and my moves for free agency:
- Nº5 - Shaedon Sharpe (his unpredictable future has me super intrigued)
- Sign Victor Oladipo for 2 years and 10M per year (the second with a player option to accept). Very important signing to give Sharpe time to settle in the league, and take the starting position.
- S&T with Phoenix for Ayton, for (can't do Grant because they can only get 18M) Kelly Olynyk+Cory Joseph (if he doesn't take his player option, would include Hamidou Diallo).
- If this previous point is not possible, sign Isaiah Hartenstein for between 5-8M per year and 3 seasons, and wait for next year's free agency.
- I choose to stay with Frank Jackson against Hamidou Diallo, because it is somewhat cheaper, and that Sharpe improves on Diallo.
- A contract of 8-10M per year, and 2-3 seasons, is negotiated with Marvin Bagley III.

The roster would look like this:
PG: Cade Cuningham - Killyan Hayes - Saben Lee
SG: Victor Oladipo - Shaedon Sharpe - Frank Jackson
SF: Saddiq Bey - Braxton Key/Isaiah Livers (in any order)
PF: Jerami Grant - Marvin Bagley III - Jamorco Picket (Dual)
C: Deandre Ayton - Isaiah Stewart - Luka Garza (Dual) or C: Isaiah Stewart - Isaiah Harstenstein - Luka Garza (Dual)

At the moment I would continue with Jerami Grant, and I would try to negotiate a reasonable extension for both parties, but if Portland continues to insist on him, it would not be traumatic to change him for their 7th pick.

[Manocad]

Even Johnny Davis?

Ok, you got me there.

The assumption there of course is one of Ivey, Murray, or Sharpe will be the pick.

I think Mathurin is a possibility too. Vegas thinks Daniels too, but I don't think that's realistic unless they trade Grant for a top 10 pick and use that on him.

You can throw the Vegas betting odds out the window at this point. The opening odds are set by what the Vegas experts think will happen but as soon as betting opens the changes in the odds indicate nothing more than where the money is being bet. It could be just a bunch of yahoos trying to make money on a long shot like Daniels, e.g. "You know what? I think Daniels is right there with Ivey, Murray and Mathurin talent-wise and he's +750. I'll throw $100 on that; why not?" Now let's say more than one person thinks that way so the odds on Daniels start rising (i.e. goes to +650, then +500, etc.) and people start thinking, "Hmm...maybe there's a chance..." And the reality may be that Daniels isn't in consideration by the Pistons in any way given who they know will be available at 5 in a worst case scenario.

[Jsindto]

Ok, you got me there.

The assumption there of course is one of Ivey, Murray, or Sharpe will be the pick.

I think Mathurin is a possibility too. Vegas thinks Daniels too, but I don't think that's realistic unless they trade Grant for a top 10 pick and use that on him.

You can throw the Vegas betting odds out the window at this point. The opening odds are set by what the Vegas experts think will happen but as soon as betting opens the changes in the odds indicate nothing more than where the money is being bet. It could be just a bunch of yahoos trying to make money on a long shot like Daniels, e.g. "You know what? I think Daniels is right there with Ivey, Murray and Mathurin talent-wise and he's +750. I'll throw $100 on that; why not?" Now let's say more than one person thinks that way so the odds on Daniels start rising (i.e. goes to +650, then +500, etc.) and people start thinking, "Hmm...maybe there's a chance..." And the reality may be that Daniels isn't in consideration by the Pistons in any way given who they know will be available at 5 in a worst case scenario.

I agree that the very early lines shouldn't be relied on, and maybe we're about a week away from the lines being much more reliable. But the lines have moved enough that now Keegan Murray is finally the true betting favorite. He's -120. Sharpe is +210 and Ivey is +250 (that's mostly because he's expected to go #4). But what's weird is that Daniels is still +600 and the next closest is Mathurin +2000. That just feels off on both. I actually like Daniels more than most, and if Weaver and the team just feel like Hayes ain't it, I think he's a very good pick.

I still feel like the pick will be 80% Murray, 15% Sharpe, or 5% Ivey. But maybe we're all underselling Daniels here.

[Manocad]

I think Mathurin is a possibility too. Vegas thinks Daniels too, but I don't think that's realistic unless they trade Grant for a top 10 pick and use that on him.

You can throw the Vegas betting odds out the window at this point. The opening odds are set by what the Vegas experts think will happen but as soon as betting opens the changes in the odds indicate nothing more than where the money is being bet. It could be just a bunch of yahoos trying to make money on a long shot like Daniels, e.g. "You know what? I think Daniels is right there with Ivey, Murray and Mathurin talent-wise and he's +750. I'll throw $100 on that; why not?" Now let's say more than one person thinks that way so the odds on Daniels start rising (i.e. goes to +650, then +500, etc.) and people start thinking, "Hmm...maybe there's a chance..." And the reality may be that Daniels isn't in consideration by the Pistons in any way given who they know will be available at 5 in a worst case scenario.

I agree that the very early lines shouldn't be relied on, and maybe we're about a week away from the lines being much more reliable. But the lines have moved enough that now Keegan Murray is finally the true betting favorite. He's -120. Sharpe is +210 and Ivey is +250 (that's mostly because he's expected to go #4). But what's weird is that Daniels is still +600 and the next closest is Mathurin +2000. That just feels off on both. I actually like Daniels more than most, and if Weaver and the team just feel like Hayes ain't it, I think he's a very good pick.

I still feel like the pick will be 80% Murray, 15% Sharpe, or 5% Ivey. But maybe we're all underselling Daniels here.

None of the Vegas lines should be relied on in this situation because as I've posted before, it's not like experts setting the Alabama vs Georgia odds where the only two factors are the two teams, and they can't hide how they've played. No one--for the most part--knows what each of these NBA teams is thinking and there are multiple teams in play relative to affecting who's even available at #5. The betting odds only indicate where the money is being bet. It's not like the odds on Murray getting better and better relative to him being the #5 pick means the Pistons are liking him more and more on a daily basis, or less and less and if the odds are dropping.

[rmfc]

It’s Ivey or Murray. As much as we love involving Sharpe and Mathurin I think it’s definitely between those two players and that’s more than fine because both players are great. I’m very excited to see how we use our cap space.

Yea my guess is Ivey or Murray.

Not super high on Murray, I think he’ll be solid, but that would mean Grant should be traded. I think we’ll get a decent player or mid round draft pick. I think there will be a good player that drops to 12-16.

I’m guessing a guard or center if we draft Murray. I’d be happy with any of Mark Williams, Johnathan Davis, Ty Ty Washington.

Bigs in the top 3, Murray to the Kings and Ivey to the Pistons is my guess.

[buzzkilloton]

You can throw the Vegas betting odds out the window at this point. The opening odds are set by what the Vegas experts think will happen but as soon as betting opens the changes in the odds indicate nothing more than where the money is being bet. It could be just a bunch of yahoos trying to make money on a long shot like Daniels, e.g. "You know what? I think Daniels is right there with Ivey, Murray and Mathurin talent-wise and he's +750. I'll throw $100 on that; why not?" Now let's say more than one person thinks that way so the odds on Daniels start rising (i.e. goes to +650, then +500, etc.) and people start thinking, "Hmm...maybe there's a chance..." And the reality may be that Daniels isn't in consideration by the Pistons in any way given who they know will be available at 5 in a worst case scenario.

I agree that the very early lines shouldn't be relied on, and maybe we're about a week away from the lines being much more reliable. But the lines have moved enough that now Keegan Murray is finally the true betting favorite. He's -120. Sharpe is +210 and Ivey is +250 (that's mostly because he's expected to go #4). But what's weird is that Daniels is still +600 and the next closest is Mathurin +2000. That just feels off on both. I actually like Daniels more than most, and if Weaver and the team just feel like Hayes ain't it, I think he's a very good pick.

I still feel like the pick will be 80% Murray, 15% Sharpe, or 5% Ivey. But maybe we're all underselling Daniels here.

None of the Vegas lines should be relied on in this situation because as I've posted before, it's not like experts setting the Alabama vs Georgia odds where the only two factors are the two teams, and they can't hide how they've played. No one--for the most part--knows what each of these NBA teams is thinking and there are multiple teams in play relative to affecting who's even available at #5. The betting odds only indicate where the money is being bet. It's not like the odds on Murray getting better and better relative to him being the #5 pick means the Pistons are liking him more and more on a daily basis, or less and less and if the odds are dropping.

Actually it does mean its more likely the closer it gets.. The sharps will hammer lines that are off. The Market makers goal is breakeven lines so the sharps cant profit they just lose on the juice that the sportsbooks charge. By time the day of event rolls around those odds are gonna be really really good.

The line battle is between the books and the sharps. Its not about joe the gambling addict. There is betting groups that put together huge money to try to exploit off lines.

[Manocad]

I agree that the very early lines shouldn't be relied on, and maybe we're about a week away from the lines being much more reliable. But the lines have moved enough that now Keegan Murray is finally the true betting favorite. He's -120. Sharpe is +210 and Ivey is +250 (that's mostly because he's expected to go #4). But what's weird is that Daniels is still +600 and the next closest is Mathurin +2000. That just feels off on both. I actually like Daniels more than most, and if Weaver and the team just feel like Hayes ain't it, I think he's a very good pick.

I still feel like the pick will be 80% Murray, 15% Sharpe, or 5% Ivey. But maybe we're all underselling Daniels here.

None of the Vegas lines should be relied on in this situation because as I've posted before, it's not like experts setting the Alabama vs Georgia odds where the only two factors are the two teams, and they can't hide how they've played. No one--for the most part--knows what each of these NBA teams is thinking and there are multiple teams in play relative to affecting who's even available at #5. The betting odds only indicate where the money is being bet. It's not like the odds on Murray getting better and better relative to him being the #5 pick means the Pistons are liking him more and more on a daily basis, or less and less and if the odds are dropping.

Actually it does mean its more likely the closer it gets.. The sharps will hammer lines that are off. The Market makers goal is breakeven lines so the sharps cant profit they just lose on the juice that the sportsbooks charge. By time the day of event rolls around thats odds are gonna be really rely good.

How’d that work out for ROY?

The betting odds are a reflection of where money is being bet, not what teams are planning on doing, period.

[buzzkilloton]

None of the Vegas lines should be relied on in this situation because as I've posted before, it's not like experts setting the Alabama vs Georgia odds where the only two factors are the two teams, and they can't hide how they've played. No one--for the most part--knows what each of these NBA teams is thinking and there are multiple teams in play relative to affecting who's even available at #5. The betting odds only indicate where the money is being bet. It's not like the odds on Murray getting better and better relative to him being the #5 pick means the Pistons are liking him more and more on a daily basis, or less and less and if the odds are dropping.

Actually it does mean its more likely the closer it gets.. The sharps will hammer lines that are off. The Market makers goal is breakeven lines so the sharps cant profit they just lose on the juice that the sportsbooks charge. By time the day of event rolls around thats odds are gonna be really rely good.

How’d that work out for ROY?

The betting odds are a reflection of where money is being bet, not what teams are planning on doing, period.

Dude it’s hilarious you’re telling me about this when ive literally gambled for a living since 2006.

Sharp betters will destroy off lines longterm. Ofc u can find examples of a line wrong it means nothing. Go read books about it or listen to warren sharp podcast.

I added a edit on the my past post before u quoted it the battle in gambling is between the betting groups and sportsbooks. It has nothing to so with casual betters cause casual betters always lose. The goal is make unbeatable lines.

[Manocad]

Actually it does mean its more likely the closer it gets.. The sharps will hammer lines that are off. The Market makers goal is breakeven lines so the sharps cant profit they just lose on the juice that the sportsbooks charge. By time the day of event rolls around thats odds are gonna be really rely good.

How’d that work out for ROY?

The betting odds are a reflection of where money is being bet, not what teams are planning on doing, period.

Dude it’s hilarious you’re telling me about this when ive literally gambled for a living since 2006 lol

Dude it’s hilarious that you’re arguing without presenting an argument.

I’ve been gambling since the ‘90’s so skip that card. If you’re seriously going to argue that the money being bet isn’t what’s moving the odds vs the possibility becoming more likely then you need to back out of the argument. If you believe the odds on Murray being the #5 pick changing day by day are a direct function of the Pistons’ draft preference, I.e. the likelihood of them taking him, you don’t know how betting works.

Like I said, how’d that work out for ROY? Mobley was the heavy betting favorite THE WHOLE TIME…and didn’t win. What does that tell you?

[buzzkilloton]

How’d that work out for ROY?

The betting odds are a reflection of where money is being bet, not what teams are planning on doing, period.

Dude it’s hilarious you’re telling me about this when ive literally gambled for a living since 2006 lol

Dude it’s hilarious that you’re arguing without presenting an argument.

I’ve been gambling since the ‘90’s so skip that card. If you’re seriously going to argue that the money being bet isn’t what’s moving the odds vs the possibility becoming more likely then you need to back out of the argument. If you believe the odds on Murray being the #5 pick changing day by day are a direct function of the Pistons’ draft preference, I.e. the likelihood of them taking him, you don’t know how betting works.

Like I said, how’d that work out for ROY? Mobley was the heavy betting favorite THE WHOLE TIME…and didn’t win. What does that tell you?

I didnt say betting wasnt moving odds. I said the odds are more correct the closer u get which u said wasnt the case. 100% closer to the event the odds are way more relevant.

Not sure why you keep bringing up one example with a roy like a underdog never hits anything. Nobody said the odds are what happens everytime not sure where u would get tbat.

[Kilo]

Zero interest in "Late bloomer" at #5.

[Manocad]

Dude it’s hilarious you’re telling me about this when ive literally gambled for a living since 2006 lol

Dude it’s hilarious that you’re arguing without presenting an argument.

I’ve been gambling since the ‘90’s so skip that card. If you’re seriously going to argue that the money being bet isn’t what’s moving the odds vs the possibility becoming more likely then you need to back out of the argument. If you believe the odds on Murray being the #5 pick changing day by day are a direct function of the Pistons’ draft preference, I.e. the likelihood of them taking him, you don’t know how betting works.

Like I said, how’d that work out for ROY? Mobley was the heavy betting favorite THE WHOLE TIME…and didn’t win. What does that tell you?

I didnt say betting wasnt moving odds. I said the odds are more correct the closer u get which u said wasnt the case. 100% closer to the event the odds are way more relevant.

Not sure why you keep bringing up one example with a roy like a underdog never hits anything. Nobody said the odds are what happens everytime not sure where u would get tbat.

You’re contradicting yourself. You’re agreeing that the money being bet is what’s moving the odds but then say the odds become more “correct” relative to the likelihood of the outcome as the odds move.

The odds moving are no reflection of what Weaver and the Pistons are thinking on a day to day basis, period. Thus if the betting odds show Murray as being the favorite that does NOT mean he’s the favored pick by Weaver/the Pistons in reality. That only means people THINK/bet he’s the pick. My ROY example proves that which is why I throw it out.