2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[Doctor MJ]

I was particularly disappointed in Jenkins which I know to some will feel unfair considering he lost his best player, but I thought he made some really questionable lineup choices against the Warriors.

I'd like to hear you elaborate on what you saw here if you would Chuck. Thanks!

[Texas Chuck]

I was particularly disappointed in Jenkins which I know to some will feel unfair considering he lost his best player, but I thought he made some really questionable lineup choices against the Warriors.

I'd like to hear you elaborate on what you saw here if you would Chuck. Thanks!

The single biggest thing was just leaving Brooks on the court for 40 minutes a night when he was absolutely refusing to play within the team offense and was shooting them right out of games. I understand the idea of trusting your guys and I understand you have to let Brooks do some of this--this undeserved confidence he has in his own offensive game is part of what makes him work defensively and in the mix, but you can't let him think I've got to replace Ja and it was clear he had decided that was the case. Then in the final game Jones had nothing either. And I know Jones is more of a defender/Steady Eddie offensive player. So where is Melton in all of this? I get maybe you don't trust his defense, but you are desperate to find some more efficient offense anywhere and Jenkins barely gave him run.

I also wondering where Kyle Anderson was for much of the series and the sporadic role for Clarke,

But mainly after Dillon Brooks' dumb suspension he welcomes him and let's this very mediocre offensive player try and play hero ball. Memphis was holding up really well defensively. Some smarter offense and they could(should?) have won that series.

[Doctor MJ]

I was particularly disappointed in Jenkins which I know to some will feel unfair considering he lost his best player, but I thought he made some really questionable lineup choices against the Warriors.

I'd like to hear you elaborate on what you saw here if you would Chuck. Thanks!

The single biggest thing was just leaving Brooks on the court for 40 minutes a night when he was absolutely refusing to play within the team offense and was shooting them right out of games. I understand the idea of trusting your guys and I understand you have to let Brooks do some of this--this undeserved confidence he has in his own offensive game is part of what makes him work defensively and in the mix, but you can't let him think I've got to replace Ja and it was clear he had decided that was the case. Then in the final game Jones had nothing either. And I know Jones is more of a defender/Steady Eddie offensive player. So where is Melton in all of this? I get maybe you don't trust his defense, but you are desperate to find some more efficient offense anywhere and Jenkins barely gave him run.

I also wondering where Kyle Anderson was for much of the series and the sporadic role for Clarke,

But mainly after Dillon Brooks' dumb suspension he welcomes him and let's this very mediocre offensive player try and play hero ball. Memphis was holding up really well defensively. Some smarter offense and they could(should?) have won that series.

Thanks Chuck!

Yeah, Brooks is maddening and I feel like with the emergence of Bane and the hope that JJJ can keep growing - to say nothing of Ja - the Grizz should strongly consider trading him in the off-season. I think it is worth asking whether allowing Brooks to be Brooks ended up costing the Grizz the series.

On the other side of things though, had someone said at the start of the year that the Grizz would be the 2nd best team in the regular season, and give the WCF champs their toughest series, all despite missing Ja repeatedly for large swaths of time during both the regular and post season, I think people would have called them crazy. Seems like a major accomplishment of player development.

ftr, I'll be considering Jenkins for a spot on my ballot. Not sure if he'll make the cut yet.

[dontcalltimeout]

Two carry jobs, two first round departures:
Part 1: An all-time great in the making

Nikola Jokic

He had one of the greatest floor-raising seasons of all time.
He broke analytics. He made defenses look silly.
He led the league in plays that make me violate the third commandment.

Yes, there is the transcendent passing and vision, but Nikola Jokic is also dominant scorer, and he has made himself into a good ("regular season") defender.



And after the break, the full story as I see it:

Spoiler:

Back in April, Ben Taylor posted the team records when MVP candidates played, their change in win pace when they didn't play, and their OnWins (which Doctor MJ created and counts the number of games where the player won his minutes). In Win% change, Jokic and Durant led all candidates with a 30% difference between when they played and when they didn't. In the games Jokic missed, the Nuggets played like a team that would win 17 games over an 82-game season. Jokic's OnWins, at 50, was second only to Tatum among the candidates Taylor looked at. Source: https://backpicks.com/2022/04/13/team-records-when-mvp-candidates-play-onwins-and-wowy/ This entire season is a kind of achievement for Jokic, and I hesitate to take anything away from him because of things that were out of his control. We all know the story, with Murray and MPJ out, it was all on the big man's back.

We know how good he was, but if you need another reminder... over the last two seasons, the Nuggets offensive rating with Jokic on the court is 119.6.



A few years ago you could have questioned whether Jokic would find the right balance between his passing and scoring. (The old question: should Nash have scored more?) This is no longer a question. Over the last two years, the only player with at least 1,400 half-court possessions and a higher PPP than Jokic is 2021 Steph Curry. If you expand that to at least 1,000 half-court possessions, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, and Zion Williamson enter the mix, all in 2021. To find someone with a higher PPP than Jokic in 2022, you have to go down to Deandre Ayton and Rudy Gobert, both with less than 800 half-court possessions in the season.



From bball-index: in 2022, Jokic was 99.4% percentile in overall shooting, 98% in finishing, 100% in playmaking, and 99.4% in box creation. See here: https://i.imgur.com/nAdMuc2.png

For POY, how do we count "doing more with less?" I personally don't see anything in Jokic's success that doesn't translate to a more talented situation. He touches the ball as much as the pound-the-ball creators, but holds it for half as long. He's moving the ball, he's throwing players open, he's making passes that we haven't seen before. So, to me, the question raised this season was not whether Jokic is the best offensive player in the league. We know that. The question now is how Jokic stands up to the players most of us consider the absolute standards: Jokic vs Nash, Jokic vs Magic, Jokic vs MJ or Bron.

Here's where it feels like we were robbed. We evaluate the best by how they problem solve against the toughest opponents. And it's difficult to take too much from a series in which the Nuggets were just completely outmatched. Aaron Gordon had one of the worst shooting series I think I've ever seen. I wish we could have seen a longer series and a better performance from the rest of the Denver team, because Jokic did seem to be figuring stuff out in the last three games.


I don't really have questions about his offense. Jokic has been a consistent playoff performer on that end.

But the defense. Denver's defense was a mess against Golden State. Sure, the final tally was a bit exaggerated because Poole and other Warriors got hot, but that was at least in part because of the looks they got. I don't think any center in the league can salvage the Nuggets perimeter defense, but there's no question that we have at least two series in the last two playoffs where Jokic's lack of mobility in space was exploited. In the 2021 and 2022 playoffs, Denver gave up 1.13 PPP on pick and rolls where Jokic was the big defender. That would be one of the worst marks in the league over a full season. Compare that to the regular seasons, where the team's mark was 0.81 PPP on the same type of play.

The Nuggets teams we've seen the last few years have not been great supporting casts. They haven't had defenders that can hold their own against quick guards and, outside of not-fully healthy MPJ in 2021, they haven't had any playoff-level offensive weapons. It's still a question how big a deal Jokic's defense with a more supportive cast. After all, we're currently seeing Golden State target a (admittedly hurt) Robert Williams, and I don't think that means he's a bad defender. Except for the most mobile of them, all bigs are in trouble in the playoffs. (Jokic would likely face similar, if less dramatic trouble against Phoenix, Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, Brooklyn, and Boston -- so roughly 46.6% of playoff teams )

How much to dock him for "huntability?" This is a question that is becoming louder and louder in the playoffs. (How much does a player's value drop when he is the source of an opposing offenses strategy? How often will this come up against the top 16 teams every year?) So, I see Jokic as a slightly negative defender in certain matchups and positive in others. He's never going to be the best rim protector but he has amazing hands.

TLDR: Jokic had one of the all-time great floor raising regular seasons. Though the year ended anticlimactically, Jokic grades out well in the available playoff stats ( -- he's 2nd in playoff AuPM, 2nd in playoff Raptor, and 2nd in bb-ref's playoff BPM). On offense: I have a hard time putting him out of the "all-time great" range. I don't think anyone can surpass Jokic for OPOY, in my book.

But: even adjusting for a weak supporting cast, it's likely that Jokic's defense is at risk in the playoffs. If we call his defense a strong negative (say a -1.0 or worse), he could drop tiers, but for now, I will keep him as a slight negative balanced out by his strong rebounding, turnover generation, and positioning.

Overall: other players may achieve more playoff success, but it's going to be difficult to be more impressive this year than Nikola Jokic.

[dontcalltimeout]

Two carry jobs, two first round departures:
Part 2: What a difference a year makes

Kevin Durant


What a difference a year makes. It seems like just the other day, we were all praising the name Kevin Durant. That was when he played 53 minutes in a game 7 against the Milwaukee Bucks, and though he didn't win, what he did was valiant. It's the kind of heroics that recalls to our dumb brains all those stories we are raised on, of heroes in sandals or in space. Is Kevin Durant the consensus best player in the world? This is where the nerds and pundits briefly met. I didn't go to many basketball games in 2021, but I was at game five of those Eastern Conference Semifinals. Durant only played 48 minutes that night, but I remember leaving the arena with a new appreciation for him.

This year saw more heroics from Durant; abandoned by two of his teammates at various points... well, essentially, it was a carry job. For the entire year, we didn't know what to make of the Nets. To some extent, we still don't.

More below:

Spoiler:

We know that Boston said "anybody but KD;" they roughed him up and showed bodies everywhere and goaded him into one of the worst shooting series of his career. I do think he forced the issue sometimes -- instead of making the right play, he would get itchy and barrel his way into an off-balance midranger. He was rushed and the Celtics got him out of his rhythm, but he still managed over ten off-the-dribble jumpers per game, with an eFG% on those shots of 36.0%. For comparison, Durant shot 53.5% on those in the regular season. So yeah, big drop-off.

The Nets did take some advantage of the overplay; the role players got hot and Durant did a solid job of dishing. In the regular season, the Nets averaged 7 points per game off of Durant's pass-out situations, per synergy. With the increased attention against Boston, Durant's pass-outs averaged 17.3 ppg. But with the good, the bad: over 50% more turnovers.

Here's the Durant paradox, then: he looks heroic against Milwaukee, but the team's offense underwhelms; he looks hapless against Boston's staunch defense, but the offense is better than Milwaukee's or Miami's against the same defense.

Yet... defense is where the Nets lost the battle this year, and I wasn't impressed with Durant there. KD was asked to play as a big and even a center at times, and he couldn't hold his own against Boston's physicality and size. Durant is a positionally good defender who isn't very disruptive. He's solid helping at the rim.



He can easily be part of a great defense, but he isn't going to erase too many mistakes (or even create advantages) on his own. I think he would be a slight positive if he was carrying less of a load. There's also the lineup problem: Durant pretty much has to play as a big now, and defense quickly becomes a real issue in that context. The Nets most used (by far) lineup this season without Harden (Irving/Curry/Brown/Durant/Drummond) gave up a 117.9 offensive rating.

Despite all the mitigating factors the simple fact is that Boston set the rules of engagement the entire series. It never felt to me like the Nets figured something out. So, who is this version of Durant?

In 2021, Durant's leading play-type was Spot-ups; in 2022, Isolations and Pick and Rolls were the top two. And not for the better, I think. More than that, Durant is looking to get to the rim less and less.



He's maybe the greatest midrange shot maker of all-time and his operation in that area is better than ever.



His rim pressure is down, perhaps his motor has slowed, but Durant is shooting as well as ever. Frankly, he looked good in the regular season. And do you have any doubt he could still light up PJ Tucker all game long?

So: Durant is still a guy that could be the best player on a championship team, but you don't want him playing helio role. (I would love to talk about Durant's value as an off-ball player here, but in Brooklyn, by necessity or choice, he has become the guy who creates with the ball in his hand.) I have been frustrated with what I have perceived as Durant's struggle to strike that balance between isolations and offensive system, between his own offense and creating for others.

What Boston did was not unique, just look back at some of those Thunder-Grizzlies series. Durant is craftier in his old age, but his physical vulnerabilities remain, and he's never going to pick a defense apart with his manipulation. Durant's last two seasons are a lesson in not overreacting to one series -- So who is the real Durant? He is both:

1) the lanky shooter who's an elite isolation scorer, who can score on anyone, but who thrives in the right mix of on-ball and off-ball play; and

2) the long-limbed dribbler who can cough up the ball if you crowd him, who can force up shots out of frustration, who will make the right play (most of the time) when the defense loads up on him... but just a tad slower than the great technicians of the game.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Hey have you guys heard of our lord and savior Stephen curry

[Colbinii]

Hey have you guys heard of our lord and savior Stephen curry

Moving into 6 all-time right ahead of Kobe

[MyUniBroDavis]

Hey have you guys heard of our lord and savior Stephen curry

Moving into 6 all-time right ahead of Kobe

Imma kill you

[MyUniBroDavis]

I wrote a bunch of paragraphs and then my phone died, so I’ll post it a bit later (prolly if the dubs win game 5 lol)

For 3/4 series the Warriors performed at a pretty top tier level of offense

Outside of the grizzlies series they’ve been ATG offensively given the competition

I think an argument for Curry would be based on valuing playoffs more, which I think is fair, and being low on jokic’s playoffs. Also just by how dominant the Warriors offense has been without that much talent

Saying Jokic wasn’t fantastic in the playoffs would be completely wrong. Otoh, in a wholistic sense in at least the first few games (I’d have to watch the last few, they might’ve switched something up) I think he was like a bottom tier defender so that might make up for it a little bit

[ardee]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

[TheGOATRises007]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

[ardee]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

Yeah it's a good point. I personally wouldn't vote Curry 1 no matter what, I think he was quite poor for parts of the RS and a huge Finals series can't remedy that, but if the board did vote him there it would remind me a lot of 2016 LeBron. In 2016 from what I recall even going into game 5 it seemed unthinkable that anyone but Curry finish 1 that year.

[weekend_warrior]

I will not hold the first round exit against Jokic, who played great and really didn't have the necessary support to go far in the POs. To me he's a valid candidate for POY. This is as long as there are no other candidates that accumulate more total "value" on a basketball court. I'm willing to extrapolate a little here to compensate for unlucky circumstances having a player eliminated earlier in the season, but in general I prefer to actually see that value unfold in reality. On top, I put more weight on the POs.

Jokic had an incredible RS and a really good PO 1st round. But he missed some RS-time as well and in total he played 74 RS + 5 PO games. To me that leaves the door open for players to surpass him by going really far in the POs while playing great.

Giannis had a realistic chance to make up for the RS gap but ultimately went out of the POs too early. He played the same number of games as Jokic and just wasn't the better player overall.

Tatum had a small chance to do so but isn't dominant enough in the actual games and I don't think he can make up for this anymore.

Curry I had at a small chance before the POs as well. The played less RS games (64) and was considerably less impressive than Jokic so the gap was big. However, Curry has played really well those last couple of series and has been killing it in the finals so far. He's played 5 more games than Jokic already and a bunch more that actually matter to me. There might be 3 more.
If he can keep up this level of play and get GSW over the top versus the Celtics, that would be very POY-worthy to me.

[eminence]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

Disagree on Jokic in the playoffs. He was a outright good defender in the RS. Vs the Warriors not so much.

[Doctor MJ]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Yes. I had Curry as the clear MVP early in the year and even with him cooling off, still had him Top 3. Not hard for him to grab the top spot for me.

[Doctor MJ]

I will not hold the first round exit against Jokic, who played great and really didn't have the necessary support to go far in the POs. To me he's a valid candidate for POY.

So, Jokic was my MVP and still had the top spot on my ballot last I ran through it again, thus I think I'm pretty much with you.

One thing I will say is that while he's made great strides on defense, I do see this as a playoff weakness relative to Curry at this point in Curry's career. So, while the top two spots on my OPOY ballot may remain what they were after the regular season (Jokic 1, Curry 2), that won't necessarily be enough to keep him ahead in my POY ballot.

[Doctor MJ]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

Yeah it's a good point. I personally wouldn't vote Curry 1 no matter what, I think he was quite poor for parts of the RS and a huge Finals series can't remedy that

I'm a broken record I know, but I'll point out that Curry's regular season +/- was absolutely huge. He's certainly less valuable when his shot isn't falling, but the floor of his value remains massive because of the gravitational impact.

[Outside]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

RS
34.5 min, 25.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 60.1 TS%

1st rd vs Denver
30.0 min, 28.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, 64.1 TS%

2nd rd vs Memphis
35.7 min, 26.0 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 0.7 stl, 56.8 TS%

WCF vs Dallas
34.8 min. 23.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 7.4 ast, 1.0 stl, 58.9 TS%

Finals vs Boston so far
37.0 min, 34.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.0 stl, 66.4 TS%

Overall PO so far
34.4 min, 27.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.3 stl, 61.2 TS%

I don't see a significant drop-off from his RS levels. There will be variation between series, and prior to the finals, I'd say variation as expected based on the quality of the defense -- Memphis outstanding (especially after Ja went out), Dallas very good, Denver poor. His performance in the finals against an excellent defense is an absurd outlier.

Vs Dallas, his scoring was down but his assists were up, as he was taking what the defense gave him when Dallas aggressively doubled him. His scoring is above his RS average in every other series. Plus his gravity has continued to be a significant benefit even in games he hasn't shot the ball well.

[Peregrine01]

I must say - excellent posts from dontcalltimeout. Comprehensive and very well balanced.

[eminence]

Does anyone think that if Curry plays at this level for 2-3 more games and the Warriors win, he could end the season at 1 in a fashion reminiscent of 2016 LeBron?

The parallels seem pretty inescapable to me.

Would be interesting.

He's been pretty dominant in the finals.

I suppose there's 1 key difference though: Jokic didn't really regress in the playoffs from his RS level this year. Curry clearly regressed in the playoffs then compared to his RS level.

RS
34.5 min, 25.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 60.1 TS%

1st rd vs Denver
30.0 min, 28.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, 64.1 TS%

2nd rd vs Memphis
35.7 min, 26.0 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 0.7 stl, 56.8 TS%

WCF vs Dallas
34.8 min. 23.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 7.4 ast, 1.0 stl, 58.9 TS%

Finals vs Boston so far
37.0 min, 34.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.0 stl, 66.4 TS%

Overall PO so far
34.4 min, 27.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.3 stl, 61.2 TS%

I don't see a significant drop-off from his RS levels. There will be variation between series, and prior to the finals, I'd say variation as expected based on the quality of the defense -- Memphis outstanding (especially after Ja went out), Dallas very good, Denver poor. His performance in the finals against an excellent defense is an absurd outlier.

Vs Dallas, his scoring was down but his assists were up, as he was taking what the defense gave him when Dallas aggressively doubled him. His scoring is above his RS average in every other series. Plus his gravity has continued to be a significant benefit even in games he hasn't shot the ball well.

I believe that was referring to Curry in 2016.