GSW / SAC – Deal around Kuminga and #4

The-Power · Post #1 » by **The-Power** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:53 pm

Just trying to get an idea what the community thinks about this deal in terms of value.

GSW out: Kuminga (+ X)
GSW in: #4 (+ X)

SAC out: #4 (+ X)
SAC in: Kuminga (+ X)

Why for GSW? They are not fully convinced that Kuminga can help this current core win more titles and like someone at #4 who they think can be a piece for the present and the future (e.g. Keegan Murray).

Why for SAC? They add a young player that has shown flashes of superstar upside and could potentially put people in the seats. They also shore up their forward rotation which is needed with their roster construction.

Is this close in value, does it make sense for the teams involved and what would have to be added to make this deal work?

GreekAlex · Post #2 » by **GreekAlex** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:58 pm

I was interested in this exact same scenario for Detroit at 5.

My belief is that Kuminga is likely better than the options at 5.

I just think that the pick in this scenario would have to go to a third team for a win now piece.

Godaddycurse · Post #3 » by **Godaddycurse** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:58 pm

Problem for this idea is Kings also want to win now..

LightTheBeam · Post #4 » by **LightTheBeam** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:06 pm

Tough decision. Kuminga has a lot of upside, but as curse points out it doesn't really help us win now.

I guess it would come down to evaluating Murray vs Kuminga.

Murray projecting as the better shooter/defender
Kuminga being younger and more explosive

I could see why GS would prefer Murray, but I think the Kings might for the very same reasons.

kb02 · Post #5 » by **kb02** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:06 pm

Depends on who's there at #4. If the Kings do not like who's there, I would probably do #4 + Holmes + #37 for Kuminga + Moody +28. Holmes would replace Looney, who I expect the Warriors to lose in FA. Main reason GSW would need to overpay a bit is because of the 1 less rookie contract year on Moody and Kuminga. The Kings buy into the upside for Kuminga and Moody, but with a much shorter time horizon to see if they're worth a second contract. My assumption is GSW would only do this if they want someone like Keegan Murray, who is probably a win now player for them. Or maybe Dyson Daniels.

wolves_89 · Post #6 » by **wolves_89** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:07 pm

In this draft, I'd rate Ivey as having a fair bit more value than Kuminga and Murray as being comparable (though the extra year on his rookie contract gives Murray a bit of a value advantage). If the Warriors want to trade Kuminga for a pick, #4 is probably too high a target.

Jay_Sizzle · Post #7 » by **Jay_Sizzle** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:10 pm

I think a realistic value on Kuminga would be a pick in the 8-15 range. He has great athletic talent, but seemed a little lost out there. He may someday become a super role player, but when I watch the kings, I think they need more top level talent. I don’t see a deal here.

The-Power · Post #8 » by **The-Power** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:24 pm

kb02 wrote:Depends on who's there at #4. If the Kings do not like who's there, I would probably do #4 + Holmes + #37 for Kuminga + Moody +28.

I doubt the Warriors are interested in moving Moody in a deal in which his value does not appear to be at least equivalent to last year (late lottery). They really like him and I expect him to play a relevant role next season. I would like to retain Looney and I think there is a chance, but if it's not possible, I think Holmes is a decent option (if we can even acquire him under the CBA). But does he still have the domestic issue hanging over him and is he prone to a bad attitude if he has inconsistent minutes and may even end up coming off the bench?

The-Power · Post #9 » by **The-Power** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:28 pm

GreekAlex wrote:I was interested in this exact same scenario for Detroit at 5.

My belief is that Kuminga is likely better than the options at 5.

I just think that the pick in this scenario would have to go to a third team for a win now piece.

That would obviously also work for GSW, provided their targeted player is still on the board. I also don't necessarily think the Warriors would want a win-now player instead of the pick. They look to build for the future in parallel and value having players on Rookie contracts. Would this be a straight-up trade or could other pieces be involved, too?

The-Power · Post #10 » by **The-Power** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:31 pm

RipPizzaGuy wrote:I could see why GS would prefer Murray, but I think the Kings might for the very same reasons.

Fair enough. I guess it depends on whether the Kings are in a rush. I also could see Kuminga being a positive contributor next season on a team with a simple role for him. It just takes a time for non-veteran or non-cerebral players to play well in the GSW system. It the Kings want to run a similar system, I fully understand the hesitation – but perhaps they aren't looking for an offense as sophisticated as GSW's offense (yet)?

Post #11 » by **gswhoops** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:35 pm

Jay_Sizzle wrote:I think a realistic value on Kuminga would be a pick in the 8-15 range. He has great athletic talent, but seemed a little lost out there. He may someday become a super role player, but when I watch the kings, I think they need more top level talent. I don’t see a deal here.

Kuminga was the #7 pick in a much stronger draft and had a good rookie year. How has his value dropped?

Post #12 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:47 pm

gswhoops wrote:
Jay_Sizzle wrote:I think a realistic value on Kuminga would be a pick in the 8-15 range. He has great athletic talent, but seemed a little lost out there. He may someday become a super role player, but when I watch the kings, I think they need more top level talent. I don’t see a deal here.

Kuminga was the #7 pick in a much stronger draft and had a good rookie year. How has his value dropped?

I never like to tell any fan their young player isn't as valuable as they think. That only works out poorly for me, so understand I'm not speaking to his value. Maybe it is #4 is this draft, I honestly have no idea how the Kings value Kuminga versus the prospects likely to be available.

But I do take issue that he had a good rookie year. He played less than 1200 minutes and the Warriors were considerably worse with him on the court than off. Now that means nothing to me in terms of his value. Rookies are almost always negative especially young inexperienced ones like Kuminga. But I would disagree that his season should be deemed good or that his play increased his value more than the year dropping it off decreased it. So yes I would say his value is slightly less than it was a year ago.

eminence · Post #13 » by **eminence** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:48 pm

I have GS wanting to keep the young guy who's been in the system for a year, think they should expect him to do more next season than a new rookie.

Post #14 » by **gswhoops** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:56 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
gswhoops wrote:
Jay_Sizzle wrote:I think a realistic value on Kuminga would be a pick in the 8-15 range. He has great athletic talent, but seemed a little lost out there. He may someday become a super role player, but when I watch the kings, I think they need more top level talent. I don’t see a deal here.

Kuminga was the #7 pick in a much stronger draft and had a good rookie year. How has his value dropped?

I never like to tell any fan their young player isn't as valuable as they think. That only works out poorly for me, so understand I'm not speaking to his value. Maybe it is #4 is this draft, I honestly have no idea how the Kings value Kuminga versus the prospects likely to be available.

But I do take issue that he had a good rookie year. He played less than 1200 minutes and the Warriors were considerably worse with him on the court than off. Now that means nothing to me in terms of his value. Rookies are almost always negative especially young inexperienced ones like Kuminga. But I would disagree that his season should be deemed good or that his play increased his value more than the year dropping it off decreased it. So yes I would say his value is slightly less than it was a year ago.

I don't think any of this analysis is unfair per se, but it seems to be an unrealistically harsh way to assess young players. Basically any rookie who doesn't immediately have a Scottie Barnes/Evan Mobley/LaMelo Ball-type rookie year loses value.

To me he answered the biggest question: does he look like a guy who belongs, did he show the abilities to be a high-level NBA player? I think the answer to that is yes. Now the questions for years 2 and 3 are: can he do it consistently, can he iron out the weaknesses and build on the strengths?

I also think you need to take into accout the relative strengths of each draft. Last year was simply a much stronger draft. Even if he's only worth the ~8th pick in a 2021 caliber draft, that equates to the 4th/5th pick in this year's draft in terms of prospect quality.

DroseReturnChi · Post #15 » by **DroseReturnChi** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:59 pm

RipPizzaGuy wrote:Tough decision. Kuminga has a lot of upside, but as curse points out it doesn't really help us win now.

I guess it would come down to evaluating Murray vs Kuminga.

Murray projecting as the better shooter/defender
Kuminga being younger and more explosive

I could see why GS would prefer Murray, but I think the Kings might for the very same reasons.

kuminga has 1 yr less and he didnt make rookie team??
the last thing kings want are project players they should trade for a prime all star at least beals level.

Post #16 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:07 pm

gswhoops wrote:[ but it seems to be an unrealistically harsh way to assess young players. Basically any rookie who doesn't immediately have a Scottie Barnes/Evan Mobley/LaMelo Ball-type rookie year loses value.

To me he answered the biggest question: does he look like a guy who belongs, did he show the abilities to be a high-level NBA player?

Yeah I don't mean to suggest every rookie who has a bad year loses value. Because most of them have bad years. As you ask, what matters is does he start to show the things he needs to show that lead us to think he's on a path to be really good player. Dirk was terrible his rookie year, but he had shown some flashes and had I been on RealGM that year, I would have come across as a major irrational homer as I was already all-in.

I just think we evaluate Kuminga's season a bit differently. And I freely acknowledge you have a better handle on it than me. As I started, I have no idea how to evaluate his value against the players from 4 down in this draft. I imagine its eye of the beholder. Some teams probably would take Kuminga still over all of them. Some almost certainly wouldn't.

I just personally didn't see enough for me to say his value increased. So yeah I'd deduct a little value losing a rookie year. But still clearly a very attractive asset. I don't think this thread is insulting or anything by any means.

Jay_Sizzle · Post #17 » by **Jay_Sizzle** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:13 pm

gswhoops wrote:
Jay_Sizzle wrote:I think a realistic value on Kuminga would be a pick in the 8-15 range. He has great athletic talent, but seemed a little lost out there. He may someday become a super role player, but when I watch the kings, I think they need more top level talent. I don’t see a deal here.

Kuminga was the #7 pick in a much stronger draft and had a good rookie year. How has his value dropped?

Well I live here in the Bay Area, so it’s not just me. Kuminga hasn’t been able to get on the court because he isn’t a 100% dialed in yet. He is not always in the right position on the court. I hate to say it, but he doesn’t look very smart out there. Kind of seems to be the topic of concern on talk radio as of late, that and what to do with Poole.

That being said — he has Ja Morant, Shawn Marion type hops. He can be an impact defender and rebounder if he dedicates himself. I don’t see him making a Giannis-like leap in development into a star, and that is what I am looking for at #4 if I am Sacramento.

azwfan · Post #18 » by **azwfan** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:15 pm

I'm okay dealing Kuminga for a draft pick. Not sure what draftee I would want though. I'm not terribly smitten with anyone at the top of the draft (even though i recognize some will end up being really good). The guys I do really like I like with the perspective of using the 28th pick in order to get them... not trading Kuminga to get.

I am certain Kuminga has the talent to be a star in the league. I'm not certain Kuminga has the work ethic or maturity for him to succeed in our system in the near future. Draymond has referenced some issues earlier in the season... but thats basically all the information I have on his professionalism / work ethic so its where my opinion leans.

My issue with trading him for a pick is moreso that I don't know what player I would want to target - and I'm not sure if that one has the work ethic / professionalism to be successful either. Might as well stick with the guy you know (as long as there aren't any serious red flags). The coaches would know that better than I.

Xman · Post #19 » by **Xman** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:27 pm

I doubt GS trade Moody or Kuminga. Both can contribute for a few years on the cheap.
Wiseman, on the other hand, is due to be paid after next year - so he might be on the block even at diminished value.

Ivey (projected #4) would be great with Moody in a couple of years (and Kuminga if they could keep him) - but giving up assets now for a backup does not make sense (true, a stud backup - but would be behind Curry/Klay/Poole).

vege · Post #20 » by **vege** » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:27 pm

Maybe the value is off, but what about a 3 teams including Detroit and Indiana?

Detroit Out: #5 / Cory Joseph
Detroit In: Jonathan Kuminga

Indiana Out: Miles Turner / Chris Duarte / #31 and a future 2nd
Indiana In: Cory Joseph / Kevon Looney / James Wiseman / #5

GSW Out: Kevon Looney / James Wiseman / Jonathan Kuminga
GSW In: Miles Turner / Chris Duarte / #31 and a future 2nd