Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 (Georgetown)

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Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 (Georgetown) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:53 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #7 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke

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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#2 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:33 pm

this is where the project gets really spicy as the somewhat obvious top 6 is done with

hope more people join cause it is much more harder now to get a good grasp here
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#3 » by jalengreen » Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:46 pm

thoughts on indiana vs arizona? i think indiana has the better top level talent (three HOFers in bellamy, zeke, mcginnis) while arizona has more depth of quality
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:08 pm

I would guess Wake Forest gets in soon because their top end talent is very high.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#5 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:13 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I would guess Wake Forest gets in soon because their top end talent is very high.


central high school has a slightly better top 2 players, what is wake forest depth like?

they have people like john collins (way too short career yet), muggsy bogues, teague, josh smith

central has people like al jefferson, monta ellis which doesnt seem much worse, maybe marc gasol if you cou t him

is close but i probably take central high school over wake forest in the head to head
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:39 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I would guess Wake Forest gets in soon because their top end talent is very high.


central high school has a slightly better top 2 players, what is wake forest depth like?

they have people like john collins (way too short career yet), muggsy bogues, teague, josh smith

central has people like al jefferson, monta ellis which doesnt seem much worse, maybe marc gasol if you cou t him

is close but i probably take central high school over wake forest in the head to head


Suspect you mean Josh Howard. They also have Rodney Rodgers, James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ish Smith, Frank Johnson, Darius Songaila.

With the strength of the top 2, WF's [somewhat limited] depth is good enough to put them in the discussion here (they're an absolute lock for the top 15, fair-to-decent top 10 case). They're unlikely to be my top pick here, and maybe not on any of my ballots; but they're in the discussion for sure.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#7 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:39 am

So I've been "massaging" the WS numbers we've been looking at, to produce a single score for a source. Yeah, I've been massaging to get results that "sort of look right", but that said it was guided by some principles/values, and obviously I cannot alter the actual inputs.

The formula is simply (A + B + C + D)/10, where A thru D are as follows:

A = Total WS * 2.05
B = Mean WS
C = Median WS
D = (Weighted Avg WS - 10) * (Total players + 10)

Mean and Median WS are little more than after-thoughts in the equation; they're just so noisy based on player distribution and sample size, they didn't seem of much value to me. Included them, but barely amount to anything to a source's total.

Total WS is a nice balance of depth and quality of players (hits the depth aspect MORE, though).

The weighted WS is important for reasons I alluded to in another thread: having a big WS total distributed among MANY small-time role players and scrubs is not as valuable as having it distributed among a few really really good/great players. Weighted WS captures that difference to a degree. I've chosen to accentuate the value slightly with the "minus 10" [a weighted WS of 40 is valued 1.5x more than 30 this way, for example].
But that needs to be factored against the total players; however a straight multiplication to total players ends up rewarding the sources with a billion nobodies. I've diluted that effect slightly with the "+ 10".

The resulting list of those we've looked at as follows....

1. UNC - 893.28
2. UCLA - 871.44
3. Kentucky - 700.61
4. Duke - 608.56
5. Kansas - 574.47
6. East Coast Zone - 486.31
7. Arizona - 414.89
8. Georgetown - 405.84
9. Michigan State - 403.59
10. Wake Forest - 393.43
11. Ohio State - 391.34
12. Indiana - 372.88

^^I'll stop there just to note the top of the list: based on this we got the top 3 and top 6 right, if not quite correct on the order of them. Possible we were sleeping on Duke a bit?? And/or overrating Kansas???

Note Michigan not in there [they're 14th15th], nor the East-Central Zone [17thedit: 14th (edited after discovering S.Kemp is claimed by this source)].
I've experimented with a few versions; any version that pushes the East-Central Zone into the top 8-10 also pushes Louisiana Tech into the ~top 12, ahead of sources like Georgetown, Michigan State, Ohio State [even though they have just 9 players ever; but one happens to be Karl Malone].
Arizona is basically always right there at 7th in multiple prior versions, fwiw, unless I give massive favoritism to the Weighted Avg WS.

Of course, all of this is based on WS only as the measuring metric [has a number of flaws/biases, though I'd hope they'd be diluted or evened out with simple volume of different player-types]. Not suggesting anyone base his rank on these scores.
The top 6 are quite distinct though, just as we'd thought.

I need to figure up the Weighted, etc, for Serbia......see where they fit in the mix by this score.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:13 am

fwiw.....

Serbia doesn't really compare to other candidates via WS measures:

Total Players - 24 (but 13 of them played 60 games or fewer [one guy played just a single game, 3 minute])
Total WS - 275.9
Mean WS - 11.5
Median WS - 0.7
Weighted Avg WS - 38.55

Their score by my above equation is dead-last of the 53 sources I've run thru it so far.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#9 » by falcolombardi » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:21 am

trex_8063 wrote:fwiw.....

Serbia doesn't really compare to other candidates via WS measures:

Total Players - 24 (but 13 of them played 60 games or fewer [one guy played just a single game, 3 minute])
Total WS - 275.9
Mean WS - 11.5
Median WS - 0.7
Weighted Avg WS - 38.55

Their score by my above equation is dead-last of the 53 sources I've run thru it so far.


what about spain by this? they dont have a jokic but got a ton of good and long careers
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:14 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:fwiw.....

Serbia doesn't really compare to other candidates via WS measures:

Total Players - 24 (but 13 of them played 60 games or fewer [one guy played just a single game, 3 minute])
Total WS - 275.9
Mean WS - 11.5
Median WS - 0.7
Weighted Avg WS - 38.55

Their score by my above equation is dead-last of the 53 sources I've run thru it so far.


what about spain by this? they dont have a jokic but got a ton of good and long careers


I count just 15 careers credited [or partially credited] to Spain. 18 NBA players listed on bbref as "born in" Spain, though three went to American colleges [two to non-Spanish parents, apparently just happened to be there at the time of their births]: Wally Szczerbiak, Wallace Bryant, and Santi Aldama all played college ball in the U.S.

I'm giving Spain "credit" for M.Gasol's 2013-14 season, and everything after. Credit for up to '13 I've given to the East-Central Zone [because he played two years of highschool ball in Tennessee]. That's a marginal change from what I'd stated earlier, fwiw [previously gave the E-CZ credit for up thru '14]; it brings the East-Central Zone's data down to 726.2 total WS, 55.86 Mean WS [Median the same, at 29.9], and actually elevates their Weighted Avg WS by a few hundredths to 86.61.
Their position via my "score" remains unchanged [17th].

Anyway, with the above player comments in mind, Spain has:

15 total players
339.9 total WS
Mean WS of 22.66
Median WS of 5.0
Weighted Avg WS of 57.52.

Their "score" ranks 49th of the 54 sources I've run [score of 191.25].

I should do France soon, too (Tony Parker, Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier, plus a few other decent role players).
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:52 am

OK, so the top three on the table in my WS-based scores are Arizona, Georgetown, and Michigan State [in that order, though all quite close].

Looking at those three, let's consider some other things.....
The "legacy/narrative points" on some of MSU's alum looks the most marvellous. I mean....
*Magic: 5 titles [9 finals appearances], 3 MVP's, along with Bird was largely responsible for reinvigorating the league. Even today, he's still basically a household name.
**Draymond Green: 3 [4?] titles (6 finals appearances), DPOY, his box-type is not exactly a darling of win shares, either (we know that his impact profile is typically beyond his box profile).

The other two universities don't really have personnel who can compare with that (Arizona not by a long shot).
MSU is somewhat near the top in total WS among those that remain, a very solid 45 weighted avg [on a very solid 52 players], a number of noteworthy players outside of the two mentioned above (Zach Randolph, Kevin Willis, Steve Smith, Johnny Green, Jaren Jackson Jr, Scott Skiles, Mo Peterson, and so on).

idk......I look at all that, and my gut tells me that's the one that I should go with for #1.

I like the names near the top for Georgetown so much better than those for Arizona (EDIT: I also note that [as far as my WS-based score is concerned] Georgetown's biggest star [Ewing] is not rated particularly favourable by Win Shares, and there is much to indicate he's a more valuable player than he is credited for based upon WS).
That said, Arizona's depth is near phenomenal at this stage: arguably the best left [Indiana, or maybe Michigan being the only ones close]. There are some NBA titles represented within their alum, too. So I think I will include them as well (though reserve the right to switch; Wake Forest looks remarkable too, so does Ohio State).

1. Michigan State
2. Georgetown
3. Arizona EDIT: Wake Forest (see later post)
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#12 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:12 am

arizona

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( low) (Iguodala, arenas)

notable: kerr (coaching bonus?) budinger, ayton (still not quite an star career yet) richard jefferson, sean elliot, bibby

vs

michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

this is interesting but i think michigan edge at the top makes it for me, (the mid-low-high rankings are very arbitrarily defined but they are just for helping me visualize it)
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#13 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:21 am

I'm going to throw out a school I don't think I've seen mentioned yet which is lsu. They have had Shaq, Pettit, Pistol Pete, Mahmoud and Ben Simmons. To me that is probably more impressive than a school like Arizona. Ga Tech is another one that might fly under the radar.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#14 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:29 am

michigan

total of nba players: 59 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) (glen rice, webber, tomjamovich)

notable: jalen rose, juwan howard, jamal crawford

vs

arizona

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( low) (Iguodala, arenas)

notable: kerr (coaching bonus?), ayton (still not quite an star career yet) richard jefferson, sean elliot, bibby

was curious about the other michigan and based on liking their top 3 more (and ayton/arenas both being too short of a career) i may take them over arizona to be completely honest
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#15 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:32 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:I'm going to throw out a school I don't think I've seen mentioned yet which is lsu. They have had Shaq, Pettit, Pistol Pete, Mahmoud and Ben Simmons. To me that is probably more impressive than a school like Arizona.


i think michigan (not the magic one, but the fab five one) is more impressive than arizona slightly too
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#16 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:34 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:I'm going to throw out a school I don't think I've seen mentioned yet which is lsu. They have had Shaq, Pettit, Pistol Pete, Mahmoud and Ben Simmons. To me that is probably more impressive than a school like Arizona.


i think michigan (not the magic one, but the fab five one) is more impressive than arizona slightly too


Ya, for me with something like this total number of guys drafted or who played a season or two in the nba is totally meaningless. What matters is the top 10-15 guys with added emphasis to the top 5. That's how I view it. Arizona is not impressive in terms of guys sent to the nba. I mean they might be top 20 but their overall talent is not that great.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#17 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:56 am

lousiana

total of nba players: 47 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (shaq, petit)

notable all star level players: 4 ( high) (shaq, petit, ben simmons*, maravich) *short career

notable: glen davis, abdul-rauf

vs

michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

shaq vs magic is a wash
petit>green imo since he was closer to a league best player in his own era
maravich vs randolph is tricky, maravich seems like he had questionable impact and zach had a nice peak in memphis

steve smith, skiles and willis vs simmons, glen davis and rauf, i actually prefer michigan here in notable players

since my instknct is to look at the top when is close i would go with lousiana by the smalles margin, may chsnge my thoughts later
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#18 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 4:19 am

lousiana

total of nba players: 47 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (shaq, petit)

notable all star level players: 4 ( mid) (shaq, petit, ben simmons*, maravich) *short career

notable: glen davis, abdul-rauf

vs

georgetown

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 2?-3?-4? (high) (ewing, mutombo, mourning, iverson?) this is tricky, only feel sure about ewing

notable all star level players: 4 (mid) (ewing, iverson, mutombo, mourning)

notable: otto porter, jeff green, hibbert (too short of a prine for me to call a star*)

i dont put too mich weight in total players as the difference is arbitrary

so i actually like georgetown top 4 over lousiana top 4 even if shaq is the best player here

shaq>ewing, petit=mutombo~, but iverson and mourning >> maravich and simmons (have doubts on maravich impact and simmons career is too short to weigh much for me)

i am not too impressed by lousiana notable players vs georgetown ones either

goergetown for me here
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#19 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 4:32 am

central highschool

total of nba players: 13 ( low)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (lebron, kobe) best top 2 of all

notable all star level players: 4 (mid) ( lebron, kobe, kemp*, marc gasol)

notable: monta ellis, al jefferson, travis outlaw, livingston

vs

arizona

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( mid) (Iguodala, arenas)

notable: kerr (coaching bonus?), ayton (still not quite an star career yet) richard jefferson, sean elliot, bibby

arizona has a wild edge in total players but central highschool actually has the 3 best ones and by far the best two

i actually dont thinl arizona players after the top 3 are much more impressive so i will take kobe and lebron over arizona 50 extra total players

this may seem a bit extreme and maybe it is, but i actually am unimpressed by arizona overall talent other than iggy and arenas (ayton is too young still to make a difference)
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Re: Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 

Post#20 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 12, 2022 4:36 am

for those confused i was surprised too, but shawn kemp actually didnt play basketball officially in college (per wikipedia) because of some elegibility to play issue) so i decided to count him as a indiana (central) high school alumni

marc gasol played 2 years of high school in memphis so i feel like counting him for both spain and central high school

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