Your 2022 NBA Draft Prospect

[buzzkilloton]

Dude it’s hilarious that you’re arguing without presenting an argument.

I’ve been gambling since the ‘90’s so skip that card. If you’re seriously going to argue that the money being bet isn’t what’s moving the odds vs the possibility becoming more likely then you need to back out of the argument. If you believe the odds on Murray being the #5 pick changing day by day are a direct function of the Pistons’ draft preference, I.e. the likelihood of them taking him, you don’t know how betting works.

Like I said, how’d that work out for ROY? Mobley was the heavy betting favorite THE WHOLE TIME…and didn’t win. What does that tell you?

I didnt say betting wasnt moving odds. I said the odds are more correct the closer u get which u said wasnt the case. 100% closer to the event the odds are way more relevant.

Not sure why you keep bringing up one example with a roy like a underdog never hits anything. Nobody said the odds are what happens everytime not sure where u would get tbat.

You’re contradicting yourself. You’re agreeing that the money being bet is what’s moving the odds but then say the odds become more “correct” relative to the likelihood of the outcome as the odds move.

The odds moving are no reflection of what Weaver and the Pistons are thinking on a day to day basis, period. Thus if the betting odds show Murray as being the favorite that does NOT mean he’s the favored pick by Weaver/the Pistons in reality. That only means people THINK/bet he’s the pick. My ROY example proves that which is why I throw it out.

Again the lines are made to be a equilibrium so only the house wins. If a line is off sharp money will hammer it making it equilibrium again. So naturally on draft day the lines are set up to be pretty damn close. The casual better dont move the lines cause they dont bet as big as the professional groups.

None of that means a surprise cant happen. A 1 in 1000 comes 1 in 1000 times.

[coolness]

nbadraft.net shook up their mock yesterday

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

1. Jabari 2. IVEY 3.BANCHERO 4. HOLMGREN

Interesting and, in my limited knowledge, defensible.

[Manocad]

I didnt say betting wasnt moving odds. I said the odds are more correct the closer u get which u said wasnt the case. 100% closer to the event the odds are way more relevant.

Not sure why you keep bringing up one example with a roy like a underdog never hits anything. Nobody said the odds are what happens everytime not sure where u would get tbat.

You’re contradicting yourself. You’re agreeing that the money being bet is what’s moving the odds but then say the odds become more “correct” relative to the likelihood of the outcome as the odds move.

The odds moving are no reflection of what Weaver and the Pistons are thinking on a day to day basis, period. Thus if the betting odds show Murray as being the favorite that does NOT mean he’s the favored pick by Weaver/the Pistons in reality. That only means people THINK/bet he’s the pick. My ROY example proves that which is why I throw it out.

Again the lines are made to be a equilibrium so only the house wins. If a line is off sharp money will hammer it making it equilibrium again. So naturally on draft day the lines are set up to be pretty damn close. The casual better dont move the lines cause they dont bet as big as the professional groups.

None of that means a surprise cant happen. A 1 in 1000 comes 1 in 1000 times.

Again, you’re arguing the effect of betting odds.

Give me an argument on how betting odds support what actually happens for NBA draft picks.

[buzzkilloton]

You’re contradicting yourself. You’re agreeing that the money being bet is what’s moving the odds but then say the odds become more “correct” relative to the likelihood of the outcome as the odds move.

The odds moving are no reflection of what Weaver and the Pistons are thinking on a day to day basis, period. Thus if the betting odds show Murray as being the favorite that does NOT mean he’s the favored pick by Weaver/the Pistons in reality. That only means people THINK/bet he’s the pick. My ROY example proves that which is why I throw it out.

Again the lines are made to be a equilibrium so only the house wins. If a line is off sharp money will hammer it making it equilibrium again. So naturally on draft day the lines are set up to be pretty damn close. The casual better dont move the lines cause they dont bet as big as the professional groups.

None of that means a surprise cant happen. A 1 in 1000 comes 1 in 1000 times.

Again, you’re arguing the effect of betting odds.

Give me an argument on how betting odds support what actually happens for NBA draft picks.

Because the oddsmakers are good and are trying to make unbeatable lines and have proven long term they can for 99% of betters. By time draft day comes around the odds are much better then say today. It doesnt mean no surprises can happen ofc.

The odds on drafts arent as on point as regular games yet though. Its not that its perfect its that its the best prediction tool available.

[kpt]

I am officially in the Murray camp at 5 IF we can get the 7 for grant. Then take sharpe or Matharurin in that order. Huge youth addition and long term upgrade then we could go a FA (Ayton Maybe) or preserve it til next year.

Cade/Killian
Sharpe/????
Bey/livers
Murray/Olynyk
Ayton/stewart

[Canadafan]

nbadraft.net shook up their mock yesterday

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

1. Jabari 2. IVEY 3.BANCHERO 4. HOLMGREN

Interesting and, in my limited knowledge, defensible.

That really sucks that we didn't get a top4 pick.

[Spider156]

nbadraft.net shook up their mock yesterday

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

1. Jabari 2. IVEY 3.BANCHERO 4. HOLMGREN

Interesting and, in my limited knowledge, defensible.

That really sucks that we didn't get a top4 pick.

Or lucky cuz 2/3 bigs will bust and it wont be Jabari. There’s always plenty of talent in the draft. We’ll never ever be able to tell who will be good as a rookie vs 10 year career vs 20 year career. It’ impossible and it’s usually health that determines a player’s future

[bstein14]

Rumor has it that OKC has inquired about trading back a few spots, reportedly wanting Ivey combined with not being sold on Chet I'd assume.

You know they love future draft assets, so if they think guys at 2/3/4/5 are close it makes a trade scenario fairly likely. They make trades pretty much every draft.

[Spider156]

Rumor has it that OKC has inquired about trading back a few spots, reportedly wanting Ivey combined with not being sold on Chet I'd assume.

You know they love future draft assets, so if they think guys at 2/3/4/5 are close it makes a trade scenario fairly likely. They make trades pretty much every draft.

Where did you hear these rumors?

[Manocad]

Again the lines are made to be a equilibrium so only the house wins. If a line is off sharp money will hammer it making it equilibrium again. So naturally on draft day the lines are set up to be pretty damn close. The casual better dont move the lines cause they dont bet as big as the professional groups.

None of that means a surprise cant happen. A 1 in 1000 comes 1 in 1000 times.

Again, you’re arguing the effect of betting odds.

Give me an argument on how betting odds support what actually happens for NBA draft picks.

Because the oddsmakers are good and are trying to make unbeatable lines and have proven long term they can for 99% of betters. By time draft day comes around the odds are much better then say today. It doesnt mean no surprises can happen ofc.

The odds on drafts arent as on point as regular games yet though. Its not that its perfect its that its the best prediction tool available.

You’re obviously stuck on your argument and that’s fine. The reality is that the money being bet is what changes the odds because Vegas wants even money being bet. They’re not trying to “win”; they make money off the juice.

[buzzkilloton]

Rumor has it that OKC has inquired about trading back a few spots, reportedly wanting Ivey combined with not being sold on Chet I'd assume.

You know they love future draft assets, so if they think guys at 2/3/4/5 are close it makes a trade scenario fairly likely. They make trades pretty much every draft.

Where did you hear these rumors?

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/draft-coverage/nba-mock-trade-thunder-move-back-for-potential-star-guard

"Thus far, the Oklahoma City Thunder have again done a solid job of letting any reliable information leak out about their upcoming draft, but there has been some unconfirmed rumors and reports. One of which is that OKC is eyeing electric Purdue guard Jaden Ivey."

Only thing I can find about it. Looks like pure BS if thats all it is. At best if there was truth to this its Presti sending out fake news which he is known for. It makes no sense with the Thunder roster for them to want Ivey. They also have heaps of draftpicks coming up why would they try to get more?

[Jsindto]

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From JEIII earlier today. So Sharpe has already has his full workout, and it wasn't just a solo workout. Group setting and solo.

[Pharaoh]

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From JEIII earlier today. So Sharpe has already has his full workout, and it wasn't just a solo workout. Group setting and solo.

Teams would be foolish to work Sharpe out solo and only solo.

Despite what we might think teams are not as stupid as they were 5, 10, 20 years ago.



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[MotownMadness]

Theres a small amount of smoke that OKC could take one of Sharpe or Ivey. If that causes one of the bigs to fall maybe Kings would drop a spot?

Something around Grant and #5 for #4

[buzzkilloton]

Theres a small amount of smoke that OKC could take one of Sharpe or Ivey. If that causes one of the bigs to fall maybe Kings would drop a spot?

Something around Grant and #5 for #4

Yeah no question. I think the Kings ask for Bey as they have in our past talks. If Grant I think like 90% of fans would do that for I'm guessing Paolo as the Kings likely just snap up Chet/Smith since they fit well with Sabonis unlike Paolo.

I think they would at least start off asking for Bey and 5. I think some would just flat out refuse trading Bey which I guess is fair but for me he is tradeable. I would at least workout a counter offer depending on whos there at 5. Like I'm pretty ok taking Ivey and not trading Bey(would Grant still). Say Ivey goes and Sharpes not on Weavers draft board I'd offer up Bey/5 for 4/likely bad salary/Kings next year 1st top 3 protected. Historically getting in these big trades with the Kings works out well.

[The Moose]

I'm hoping we are deciding between Ivey/Dyson at this point, really just not feeling Murray/Mathurin at 5. Sharpe is impossible to get a read on, so I'll leave that on Weaver

If the decision really is between Murray/Mathurin though, I hope we trade down and grab Duren or someone like Eason/Sochan

[DocRI]

Theres a small amount of smoke that OKC could take one of Sharpe or Ivey. If that causes one of the bigs to fall maybe Kings would drop a spot?

Something around Grant and #5 for #4

Two thoughts off that OKC / Sharpe rumor —

1) The easy passive route — if OKC is sold on Sharpe and HOU is truly sold on Ivey, it’s a dream come true for us. We sit tight at #5, let the guards go 2-3, and take whoever the Kings don’t between Chet and Paolo.

2) The active route — if Weaver is sold on A guy who’s on the board at #2, we offer to lower the protections on the pick we owe OKC to swap spots. They still get Sharpe at #5, so it’s win-win for them, and we get OUR guy (whomever Weaver deems that may be). We’re the only team that can offer OKC the chance to improve that future pick, so it’s an interesting card to play. The question is, what’s fair? I don’t think there’s any way we unprotect it, and even top 4 seems like a stretch, but we gotta make it worth their while. Right now the protections are 18-18-13-11-9; would 10-10-8-8-4 get it done? Keep in mind, OKC is still getting the guy they want in Sharpe, so improving the pick we send them and sending it sooner than later is found money for them.


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[The Moose]

Theres a small amount of smoke that OKC could take one of Sharpe or Ivey. If that causes one of the bigs to fall maybe Kings would drop a spot?

Something around Grant and #5 for #4

Two thoughts off that OKC / Sharpe rumor —

1) The easy passive route — if OKC is sold on Sharpe and HOU is truly sold on Ivey, it’s a dream come true for us. We sit tight at #5, let the guards go 2-3, and take whoever the Kings don’t between Chet and Paolo.

2) The active route — if Weaver is sold on A guy who’s on the board at #2, we offer to lower the protections on the pick we owe OKC to swap spots. They still get Sharpe at #5, so it’s win-win for them, and we get OUR guy (whomever Weaver deems that may be). We’re the only team that can offer OKC the chance to improve that future pick, so it’s an interesting card to play. The question is, what’s fair? I don’t think there’s any way we unprotect it, and even top 4 seems like a stretch, but we gotta make it worth their while. Right now the protections are 18-18-13-11-9; would 10-10-8-8-4 get it done? Keep in mind, OKC is still getting the guy they want in Sharpe, so improving the pick we send them and sending it sooner than later is found money for them.


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I think we would have to change the protections to at least something like top 7, maybe even just straight up top 4 protected using the Trae/Luka swap as a measuring stick

[Jsindto]

I can definitely see Ivey go top 4. I'd be flabbergasted if Sharpe does.

Let's say Ivey does, though. I'd have a hard time seeing SAC pass on whoever falls to 4. I think you'd have to do a Grant and #5 for #4 swap. And then it's a question of if Weaver values who is there much more than Murray.

If it's Paolo at #4, and Weaver likes him, but doesn't love him, you probably don't do that trade. If it's Chet at #4, and Weaver loves him, you probably do that trade. Vice versa of course. Maybe he likes Chet and loves Paolo.

Edit: and SAC likely only does that trade if they just like the player at #4. If they love him, they'll just take him regardless. So the Pistons would have to be lucky if Weaver is high on him and the Kings aren't.

[kpt]

If we draft or sign a 4/5 we must get rid of one as well. There is too much talent/potential there to add and not subtract. Not enough PT for us to utilize everyone.