Kevin Pelton's top 30 prospects (2022 draft)

[RookieStar]

I think Smith basically has the body he will carry over his career in the NBA. His BMI is so low, that one has to assume that nutrition and weight training are already major parts of his training.

I think JS too is fine with his body type. We dont need him to bulk up. Modern 4s nowadays dont really bang downlow

[JTG_92940618]

A bit of a side note but I just want to add this to the discussion. Anyone who thinks Chet is going to get eaten alive in the post should consider the following:

1. We will obviously try and put Wendell on beefy post players. Where we can't...
2. Post-ups are the worst offense type, so the opposition can go for it
3. Backing Chet down is great. Now shoot over his impossibly long arms, excellent shot block timing and technique
4. Don't hit him too hard, a skinny guy like him can go down easy and you can get called for an offensive foul
5. Good luck sealing a guy who fights for his life when he senses he's about to be posted

That's it. That's all I have to add.

[j_n]

I could see us winning 30 games next year. Particularly if Jabari/Paolo is the selection.

The only way i see us winning 30 games next year is because a lot of teams saw what we did last season and wanna get on the WebTank early.

We were injured a ton. Suggs should play better, Fultz will hopefully play a full season, Franz should improve, JI will hopefully be back and we’re adding the #1 pick. It’s not outrageous to think we’ll see an 8 game improvement if we’re not actively tanking next year.

30 games show be our floor if we don't tank, this team should improve significantly just from having Fultz starting and from trying to win games.

Any combination of internal improvement, a good rookie year for our #1, JI comeback and a good FA signing could make next season very interesting.

[Ralof]

A bit of a side note but I just want to add this to the discussion. Anyone who thinks Chet is going to get eaten alive in the post should consider the following:

1. We will obviously try and put Wendell on beefy post players. Where we can't...
2. Post-ups are the worst offense type, so the opposition can go for it
3. Backing Chet down is great. Now shoot over his impossibly long arms, excellent shot block timing and technique
4. Don't hit him too hard, a skinny guy like him can go down easy and you can get called for an offensive foul
5. Good luck sealing a guy who fights for his life when he senses he's about to be posted

all true,as long if you let him guard opposite forwards.
putting him guard any 7 footer,would be a crime(even cousins would abuse him)

chet has to show his feet are quick enough and his qi is good enough for nba,if shows that to me is basically a generational talent as defender.

(still,injuries has to take into the evaluation process,but that is beyond my knowledge)

[Skybox]

The only way i see us winning 30 games next year is because a lot of teams saw what we did last season and wanna get on the WebTank early.

We were injured a ton. Suggs should play better, Fultz will hopefully play a full season, Franz should improve, JI will hopefully be back and we’re adding the #1 pick. It’s not outrageous to think we’ll see an 8 game improvement if we’re not actively tanking next year.

30 games show be our floor if we don't tank, this team should improve significantly just from having Fultz starting and from trying to win games.

Any combination of internal improvement, a good rookie year for our #1, JI comeback and a good FA signing could make next season very interesting.

I agree...I'm aiming realistically for higher than 30...If not, I'd say it's a total tank job and we'll be seeing a lot of Cole running the offense. I'm shooting for a solid 40, with the growth coming largely from our existing young core, playing the right way and receiving support from vets that want to win, not fighting for their NBA break.

I really hope not - my opinion is not only due to the #1 overall pick.
-We had a LOT of missed games by pivotal starters (Fultz, Isaac), each of them, if healthy, potentially change the nature of our team on each end of the court. Basically, Isaac replacing Bamba in the front court takes us quite a bit further up the defensive rankings.
-We have a LOT of cap space (when few other teams do). If we just hang onto it for next summer, it's a crowded pool. If we focus our FA spending and roster filling on winners rather than G-league tryouts (which made sense last year), expect a boost.
-I'm not betting that Suggs becomes a knock-down shooter, but he is a great defender and a fierce competitor...I think he makes a leap just by learning. His injuries may have been an issue, but I think the game slows down for him next year and his efficiency jumps and turnovers lessen. His problems really look like rookie type uncertainty/adjustment stuff. I see Marcus Smart, so we need a scoring PG if it's to work at a high level. I think Fultz can score 18ppg if our front court and bench shooting improves (Jabari, Harris, vet FA's).
-Cole's no dummy...he'll fight for his minutes and, if the message is efficiency or sit, I think he can improve. His nature is still hero ball but I think he can be better at it, especially as a sixth man. If the Coach and FO are aligned in their vision, and willing to sit ANYBODY who slips in their priorities, we can make progress.
...it largely depends on the FO's goals, I really hope they try to win. Not an all-in short-sighted move like Lavine, but supporting our young guys' growth with solid, heady, 2-way vets who've "been there". I really don't want to hear about next year's draft for a long while.

[pepe1991]

What's the point of guessing record when you don't know team yet?

Magic were dreadful against teams with positive record last year and 10 out of 14 teams they faced on East, had positive record.
So you probably don't even make playin from 10th spot without 40-43 wins.

[jonbob17]

Well the hypothesis that the Magic modeling is close to the same as Pelton's WAR is officially over.

[thelead]

Well the hypothesis that the Magic modeling is close to the same as Pelton's WAR is officially over.

Possibly because Matt Lloyd is no longer here

[fendilim]

Well the hypothesis that the Magic modeling is close to the same as Pelton's WAR is officially over.

Possibly because Matt Lloyd is no longer here

Still believe it plays a role.

1 year out of 4 years? If im not mistaken

[jonbob17]

Well the hypothesis that the Magic modeling is close to the same as Pelton's WAR is officially over.

Possibly because Matt Lloyd is no longer here

Still believe it plays a role.

1 year out of 4 years? If im not mistaken

I’d say last year was off too. Paulo was 11 this year though

[fendilim]

Possibly because Matt Lloyd is no longer here

Still believe it plays a role.

1 year out of 4 years? If im not mistaken

I’d say last year was off too. Paulo was 11 this year though

Sans the international players last year, it exactly happened the way it was ranked.

My bad. Its actually 1 out of 6 years (cause WeHam started with Isaac). But if you want to consider past year, 2 out of 6 years. Still significant.

[jonbob17]

Still believe it plays a role.

1 year out of 4 years? If im not mistaken

I’d say last year was off too. Paulo was 11 this year though

Sans the international players last year, it exactly happened the way it was ranked.

My bad. Its actually 1 out of 6 years (cause WeHam started with Isaac). But if you want to consider past year, 2 out of 6 years. Still significant.

Yah it seems like they use a model to predict production. I guess the Pelton one is the only one we have access to, and probably our(fans) best predictor. I know I watch it pretty closely, i really though Paolo would be out based on Pelton's, and I like Paolo.

[fendilim]

I’d say last year was off too. Paulo was 11 this year though

Sans the international players last year, it exactly happened the way it was ranked.

My bad. Its actually 1 out of 6 years (cause WeHam started with Isaac). But if you want to consider past year, 2 out of 6 years. Still significant.

Yah it seems like they use a model to predict production. I guess the Pelton one is the only one we have access to, and probably our(fans) best predictor. I know I watch it pretty closely, i really though Paolo would be out based on Pelton's, and I like Paolo.

yeah. Maybe they use some sort of advance metrics almost close to it. Remmeber they got an exclusive contract with an advanced statistics company.