Top Pro Talent Source of All-Time: #7 (Georgetown)

[falcolombardi]

central highschool

total of nba players: 13 ( low)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (lebron, kobe) best top 2 of all

notable all star level players: 4 (mid) ( lebron, kobe, kemp*, marc gasol)

notable: monta ellis, al jefferson, travis outlaw, livingston

vs

michigan

total of nba players: 51 ( High)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (magic)

notable all star level players: 3 (mid) (magic, green,randolph)

notable: kevin willis, skiles, steve smith (borderline all star seasons?)

i like central high school top 4 a lot more than michigan

lebron>magic, kobe >> dray, kemp > randolph, marc>steve smith,

i think monta, livingston, outlaw, al jefferson >> kevin willis scott skiles

michigan has a ton more players, but i dont like using raw total as the main tie breaker

top > total when it comes to it for me

so central high school > michigan for me

[jalengreen]

to me indiana is a team a bit underrated by win shares

indiana has

isiah thomas, 43rd on PC 100, 81 win shares
walt bellamy, 99th on PC 100, 130 win shares

arizona has

jason terry, unranked on PC 100, 102 win shares
andre iguodala, unranked on PC 100, 100 win shares

i think in terms of legacy the difference between isiah/bellamy and terry/iguodala is probably greater than win shares would suggest.

or maybe indiana isnt underrated and it's moreso just arizona being overrated

i'm leaning georgetown as my #1 - ewing (29) mutombo (58) mourning (64) iverson (66) all in the top 70 of the PC 100 which is fairly remarkable at this stage. of course legacy-wise the counterargument might be that none of those legends have a ring outside of mourning in '06 (as a bench player past his prime) which looks particularly unimpressive compared to MSU. theres also not a *ton* of depth - you got jeff green, sleepy floyd, gre gmonroe, roy hibbert, reggie williams, otto porter jr... it's not great. but the top is ridiculous..

i think 1. georgetown.. and then the teams i think i'm looking at to fill the rest of my ballot:

michigan state, arizona, indiana, wake forest, east central, ohio state. don't think i'm considering anyone else.

among those teams, my rough thinking is that arizona would be towards the bottom.

[falcolombardi]

central highschool

total of nba players: 13 ( low)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (lebron, kobe) best top 2 of all

notable all star level players: 4 (mid) ( lebron, kobe, kemp*, marc gasol)

notable: monta ellis, al jefferson, travis outlaw, livingston

vs

lousiana

total of nba players: 47 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (shaq, petit)

notable all star level players: 4 ( mid) (shaq, petit, ben simmons*, maravich) *short career

notable: glen davis, abdul-rauf

i am once again mpre impressed with central high school

lebron ~ shaq, kobe>petit, kemp > maravich (i have doubts on maravich as a "real" star) marc* > simmons

after that east coast next notable players (livingston, ellis, outlaw, jefferson) beat lousiana ones for me

lousiana of course has a big depth edge in total players

this one is closer than vs michigan but is a similat comparision

i value top talent edge > total players edge

so central high school > lousiana for me

[falcolombardi]

my final ranking would be georgetown vs central

lebron, kobe, kemp, marc* vs ewing, mutombo,mourning, iverson

with marc having some points off for only two years in HS this one is the closest top 4 but is still a central hich school edge

but is close enough this time and georgetown has good enough deptg after 4 than by the smallest margin

i go with georgetown over central high school

[falcolombardi]

1- georgetown
2- central high school
3- lousiana

hm: michigan, michigan

considered wake forest but i dont think they had a chance yet, also gonna look into the other arizona next, maybe florida, spain, serbia, etc

[jalengreen]

Okay, I wanted to add another interpretable and necessary way to evaluate these schools along with win shares: accolades, specifically All-NBA teams and All-Stars.



All-NBA indicates the number of All-NBA players they've had while All-NBA Sel. indicates the total number of All-NBA selections those players have accrued.

The teams at the top have already been selected but are there for the sake of comparison.

Plain-text version in spoiler if someone prefers that:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

+----------------+---------+----------+---------+---------+-----------+--------------+---------------+
| College        | Players | Total WS | Mean WS | All-NBA | All-Stars | All-NBA Sel. | All-Star Sel. |
+----------------+---------+----------+---------+---------+-----------+--------------+---------------+
| UNC            | 99      | 2185     | 22.1    | 8       | 13        | 25           | 65            |
| UCLA           | 99      | 2085     | 21.1    | 8       | 18        | 36           | 72            |
| Kentucky       | 125     | 1854     | 14.8    | 11      | 16        | 19           | 43            |
| Duke           | 91      | 1562     | 17.2    | 5       | 11        | 12           | 31            |
| Kansas         | 81      | 1337     | 16.5    | 5       | 8         | 21           | 45            |
| Arizona        | 62      | 974      | 15.7    | 1       | 3         | 3            | 6             |
| Ohio State     | 50      | 965      | 19.3    | 4       | 7         | 22           | 33            |
| Indiana        | 68      | 950      | 14.0    | 3       | 7         | 8            | 28            |
| Michigan State | 52      | 900      | 17.3    | 4       | 6         | 14           | 24            |
| Michigan       | 62      | 898      | 14.5    | 3       | 8         | 8            | 18            |
| UConn          | 39      | 829      | 21.3    | 3       | 6         | 4            | 22            |
| Georgetown     | 49      | 820      | 16.7    | 4       | 6         | 19           | 40            |
| Georgia Tech   | 41      | 798      | 19.5    | 3       | 4         | 7            | 18            |
| Wake Forest    | 33      | 788      | 23.9    | 2       | 5         | 26           | 30            |
| Notre Dame     | 60      | 769      | 12.8    | 1       | 5         | 2            | 15            |
| Minnesota      | 50      | 751      | 15.0    | 4       | 4         | 4            | 19            |
| Texas          | 37      | 747      | 20.2    | 3       | 4         | 20           | 27            |
| USC            | 46      | 712      | 15.5    | 4       | 6         | 16           | 23            |
| Villanova      | 52      | 710      | 13.7    | 2       | 2         | 5            | 16            |
| Houston        | 38      | 708      | 18.6    | 4       | 4         | 24           | 38            |
| Illinois       | 46      | 696      | 15.1    | 2       | 6         | 4            | 19            |
| Marquette      | 43      | 672      | 15.6    | 3       | 5         | 13           | 26            |
| LSU            | 50      | 670      | 13.4    | 5       | 5         | 32           | 36            |
+----------------+---------+----------+---------+---------+-----------+--------------+---------------+


I think this shows how rare Arizona is as a school. They've contributed more win shares than any school outside of the "Big Five" ... and those players have accumulated just six total All-Star selections. Six. It speaks to their remarkable depth but also their remarkable lack of particularly impressive talent.

LSU has been mentioned recently and they actually have the 2nd most total All-NBA selections behind UCLA, thanks to Shaquille O'Neal (14), Bob Pettit (11), Pete Maravich (4), Frankie Bryan (2), and Ben Simmons (1).

I don't believe Houston has been mentioned yet - they're led by a very formidable big three of Clyde Drexler, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Elvin Hayes. There's a steep drop-off in talent after that group, but those are three players on the PC Top 100 and one in the top 9. Certainly notable.

We've mentioned Wake Forest - only two All-NBA players in their history but those two (Tim Duncan, Chris Paul) have combined for more than double the cumulative All-NBA selections of a prestigious school like Duke.

Ohio State ought garner some attention soon as well - 22 All-NBA selections and the 7th most cumulative win shares (among colleges). Their ranks are led by the likes of John Havlicek, Jerry Lucas, Neil Johnston, and Arnie Risen - all Hall of Famers.

We've certainly talked about Georgetown and their four Hall of Fame alum in Dikembe Mutombo, Allen Iverson, Alonzo Mourning, and Patrick Ewing, helping the school accumulate a total of 19 All-NBA selections and 40 All-Star selections - nine more than Duke while having just over half the number of players.

Texas is an interesting thought with Kevin Durant piling in 10 of their 20 total All-NBA selections (LaMarcus Aldridge and Slater Martin adding in five apiece to account for the other 10 selections). Similarly, how about USC? Bill Sharman (7), DeMar DeRozan (3), Gus Williams (2), and Paul Westphal (4) combine for 16 total All-NBA selections.

And there's also Michigan State, up there with the best of the remaining schools in terms of win shares and also standing strong in All-NBA selections (14) thanks to Magic Johnson (10), Draymond Green (2), Zach Randolph (1), and Kevin Willis (1).

Other schools that may somewhat stand out include, along with all of their All-Stars:

- Indiana (Dick Van Arsdale, George McGinnis, Isiah Thomas, Jon McGlocklin, Tom Van Arsdale, Victor Oladipo, Walt Bellamy)
- Michigan (Bob Harrison, Campy Russell, Cazzie Russell, Chris Webber, Glen Rice, Juwan Howard, Rickey Green, and Rudy Tomjanovich)
- UConn (Andre Drummond, Caron Butler, Clifford Robinson, Kemba Walker, Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton)
- Georgia Tech (Chris Bosh, Kenny Anderson, Mark Price, Stephon Marbury)
- Marquette (Doc Rivers, Don Kojis, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Maurice Lucas)

[jalengreen]

As for where East Central falls into my above analysis:

Excluding KG/Gasol (I chose to consider them East Coast and Spain respectively) and including the likes of:

LeBron, Kobe, Kemp, Jefferson, Ellis, Livingston, Graboski, Curry, Miles, Bazley, Outlaw, Bender (thanks to trex/falco for these names)

I have them at 733 win shares. That's right between Texas and USC. However, they also have 18 total All-NBA selections ... from LeBron alone. And another 18 from Kobe and Kemp. And then one from Jefferson. That's 37 total selections, right behind East Coast's 41 and right ahead of UCLA's 36.

[jalengreen]

Alright, I guess I have to actually submit rankings at some point.

Earlier in the project, I tended to favor depth & quantity of players over just the top-level talent. That was my reasoning in ranking Kentucky over top-tier talent sources like Kansas and East Coast. Now, I look at talent sources like East Central and Georgetown and think that I *have* to put them over Arizona. I want to make sure I'm not suddenly changing my criteria midway through the project, though, and favoring the top-heavy schools over a very deep college like Arizona may seem hypocritical. I think my justification would be that Kentucky's depth was a depth of quality a step higher than any of the remaining schools can claim to have. Kentucky leads all colleges with 11 total All-NBA players ... not selections, unique players who were named to an All-NBA team. That's depth of stars while perhaps lacking all-time greats, versus a school like Arizona having depth of higher level NBA role players while lacking stars. I guess that's how I tell myself that I'm maintaining consistency here.

The question is ... where the hell does Arizona go? You could make a case for them at #7 if you lean heavily towards the "total win shares" approach (cumulative career value of their players, no consideration for superstar talent). If you care more about star talent, they can fall below ... well, the margins are so tight at this point that I think you could make a case for them to fall out of the top 15. I'll worry about that later ... for now I'm fairly confident they don't belong on my ballot. Earlier I compared them to Indiana and thought that I favored Indiana more and might end up putting them on my ballot - I think I still favor Indiana, but now I don't think either of them belong on my ballot.

1. East Central

Earlier, I considered the question of comparing Michigan State's top level talent to Georgetown's.

Michigan State gives you Magic Johnson and Draymond Green at the top.

Georgetown gives you Patrick Ewing, Allen Iverson, Dikembe Mutombo, and Alonzo Mourning.

Magic clearly leads the pack, but the Hoyas boast four arguably top 70 players - that's spectacular in its own right. On the other hand, you're not quite getting the championship pedigree of the Spartans' alumni. The Hoyas' big four combines for a whopping zero titles as starters in the NBA, while the Michigan State leading two guys combine for **EIGHT** and may very well be nine in about a week.

East Central arguably gives you both, though - you get potentially the GOAT along with a fringe top 10 player in Kobe Bryant, the two of which combine for nine NBA titles. There's still an argument to be made for the other two schools because of the inherent lack of depth from high school regions in this project, but this feels like a reasonable spot to throw them in. I could easily put them at #2 or #3 though - again, the margins are thin now.

2. Georgetown

Ewing, Iverson, Mutombo, Mourning is an insane group of four players to get at this stage of the project. Jeff Green, Sleepy Floyd, Greg Monroe, Reggie Williams, Roy Hibbert, and Otto Porter Jr. give you some NBA quality guys to work with as well. They lack a Magic or LeBron, but the depth of all-time greats is enough for me.

... and #3 was the hardest spot for me

I mainly considered Ohio State, Michigan State, Houston, Wake Forest, and ... ****, should I think about LSU as well? I mostly thought about the Duncan/CP3 duo before, but how about Shaq/Pettit with a sprinkle of Pistol Pete? Now that I think about, I was definitely overlooking LSU (ignore my team logos please - we're a football school ), and I can't put Wake Forest over them.

But I think I have to favor Houston over LSU - namey because I like Hakeem/Pettit/Hayes versus Shaq/Pettit/Maravich due to Maravich being the worst of the bunch, and I think that matters most here because none of them have notable depth. Then the crux of the argument becomes Ohio State vs Michigan State and the winner of that comparison versus Houston. I do see the case for LSU though - their depth does outweigh Houston's.

Super tough call between tOSU and MSU, but I think I go with Michigan State ... Magic as the best player is an advantage over Hondo (as great as he was) and I think Jaren Jackson Jr. serves as a sort of "active tiebreaker" in that I think he'll accomplish more in the future than any active Buckeye. Which leaves me with Michigan State vs Houston.

Say you call Magic and Shaq a wash... I think my top 5 players end up being Magic/Hakeem > Drexler > Hayes > Draymond.

It's a tough call, Michigan State has better depth IMO while Houston clearly wins at the top. I think I lean towards having that extra true all-time great but I could easily flip-flop here... tough call, this is where I begin to wish we had some more voters.

3. Houston

HM: Michigan State, Ohio State, LSU

[trex_8063]

for those confused i was surprised too, but shawn kemp actually didnt play basketball officially in college (per wikipedia) because of some elegibility to play issue) so i decided to count him as a indiana (central) high school alumni

marc gasol played 2 years of high school in memphis so i feel like counting him for both spain and central high school

Nice catch on Shawn Kemp.
I'd previously asked if my list of players from the East-Central Zone was missing anyone. Indeed [per Wikipedia], he was recruited by Kentucky, but didn't meet academic standards [SAT score] to actually play for the team in actual competition, enrolled there anyway in the hopes of later meeting standards to play; but then was accused of stealing by the coach's son and kicked off the team.

Subsequently enrolled in Trinity Valley Community College where he was for one semester [never playing there], and then entering the NBA draft. So he is indeed a product of that highschool zone.

That changes their data profile a bit:

Total players - 14
Total WS - 815.7
Mean WS - 58.26
Median WS - 35.05
Weighted Avg WS - 86.91

These changes alters their score [from my formula above], and moves them up to 14th [bumping Michigan to 15th].


I've decided I'm not content with Arizona as my 3rd ballot, even with their awesome score thru my formula. The top two for Wake Forest are just so enormous in an all-time sense.......I weight the cumulative value of those two careers as above and beyond the top 6-8 that came out of Arizona. Certainly the depth of quality players beyond that trounces what Wake Forest has to offer beyond their top 2; so idk. But for now I'm waffling to Wake Forest for my 3rd ballot.

Although Wake Forest's top two trounce the top two Georgetown has to offer, it's not by near as much as with Arizona: Patrick Ewing plus whichever of Deke/AI/Zo you feel is #2 is a lot better than Iggy and whichever of Arenas/Bibby/Terry you think is best.

And then of course, Georgetown would have the remainder of two of Deke/AI/Zo as the next two best, whereas the next two for Wake Forest are probably Muggsy Bogues and Josh Howard......no contest there. The extended depth obviously goes to Georgetown as well. So I'm pretty comfortable keeping Georgetown ahead of WF.

Will edit above (though I may waffle back in the other direction in a later thread; idk, very close).

[trex_8063]

.

.

Point totals thru post #29:

Georgetown - 7 pts
East-Central Zone - 5 pts
Michigan State - 3 pts (surprised they're not getting more love here)
Wake Forest - 1 pt
Houston - 1 pt
*"Louisiana" - 1 pt (falco, I assume you mean LSU?? Please specify, as one could make a dark horse case for Louisiana Tech [based on Karl Malone, Paul Millsap, and PJ Brown])

As it's close, I'll leave this one open a few more hours to see if anything changes (via change of heart of the three of us, or the exciting prospect of a fourth voter!).

[falcolombardi]

.

.

Point totals thru post #29:

Georgetown - 7 pts
East-Central Zone - 5 pts
Michigan State - 3 pts (surprised they're not getting more love here)
Wake Forest - 1 pt
Houston - 1 pt
*"Louisiana" - 1 pt (falco, I assume you mean LSU?? Please specify, as one could make a dark horse case for Louisiana Tech [based on Karl Malone, Paul Millsap, and PJ Brown])

As it's close, I'll leave this one open a few more hours to see if anything changes (via change of heart of the three of us, or the exciting prospect of a fourth voter!).

yeah LSU

btw i was actually surprised how solid the "other michigan" actually was with webber, tomjamovich amd a bunch of solid players

never thought about houston but they have a interesting case too

[giordunk]

We have to be getting into Serbia/Spain category by now right? Actual basketball development programs, instead of just one and dones. I'd say Arizona and Michigan State are kind of the last two. I think about.

Also does Liga ACB count for Spain? Because then you also get Luka Doncic.

[falcolombardi]

We have to be getting into Serbia/Spain category by now right? Actual basketball development programs, instead of just one and dones. I'd say Arizona and Michigan State are kind of the last two. I think about.

Also does Liga ACB count for Spain? Because then you also get Luka Doncic.

i plan on including luka for spain

i think you touch a interesting point here, many colleges only having the players for 1 single season vs high schools or academies in europe that develop them for multiple years

are we maybr over cresiting the likes of kentucky and duke here for getting gifted 1-year rentals of player that could easily go straight to nba for the most part?

if the 1 and done rule didnt exist players like davis or towns may have just gone straigh to pros for example

i think is not a big issue going forward cause the modern powerhouse recruiters of the 1 and done era (duke, kentucky) are already in and the next schools are heavily from the "4 years" era

but it may be somethingh we didnt consider thoroughly?

[jalengreen]

im not focused that much on development here. we have no idea when or where a player truly developed. it's possible that a player was unimpressive entering the NBA and truly made strides in the league itself, or maybe in the g-league. it's also possible that a player made their huge development leap in college. i don't think it's realistic to be able to do that analysis

are UNC and UCLA the best talent developers? who knows. we'd need to compare their high school recruiting status in order to even start to consider that (i.e. were the nba players they're producing already top of their class entering college?).

[jalengreen]

LSU v. Wake Forest v. Houston

Wake: 788 total WS, 2 All-NBA players, 26 All-NBA selections
Houston: 708 total WS, 4 All-NBA players, 24 All-NBA selections
LSU: 670 total WS, 5 All-NBA players, 32 All-NBA selections

Players on PC Top 100:

Wake: Duncan (5), Paul (23)
Houston: Olajuwon (9), Drexler (38), Hayes (59)
LSU: O'Neal (8), Pettit (25)

Best of the rest:

Wake: Muggsy Bogues, Jeff Teague, Rodney Rogers, Josh Howard, John Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, James Johnson
Houston: Bo Outlaw, Otis Birdsong, Don Chaney, Damon Jones, Dwight Jones, Greg Anderson
LSU: Pete Maravich, Brandon Bass, Ben Simmons, Frankie Bryan, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Stromile Swift

In terms of the "best of the rest", it's LSU > Wake > Houston to me while in regards to Top 100 talent, I'd go Houston > Wake=LSU.

I dunno, you can make an argument for any of these. I'm considering switching... but I think I'll stay put with Houston for now.

[falcolombardi]

LSU v. Wake Forest v. Houston

Wake: 788 total WS, 2 All-NBA players, 26 All-NBA selections
Houston: 708 total WS, 4 All-NBA players, 24 All-NBA selections
LSU: 670 total WS, 5 All-NBA players, 32 All-NBA selections

Players on PC Top 100:

Wake: Duncan (5), Paul (23)
Houston: Olajuwon (9), Drexler (38), Hayes (59)
LSU: O'Neal (8), Pettit (25)

Best of the rest:

Wake: Muggsy Bogues, Jeff Teague, Rodney Rogers, Josh Howard, John Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, James Johnson
Houston: Bo Outlaw, Otis Birdsong, Don Chaney, Damon Jones, Dwight Jones, Greg Anderson
LSU: Pete Maravich, Brandon Bass, Ben Simmons, Frankie Bryan, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Stromile Swift

In terms of the "best of the rest", it's LSU > Wake > Houston to me while in regards to Top 100 talent, I'd go Houston > Wake=LSU.

I dunno, you can make an argument for any of these. I'm considering switching... but I think I'll stay put with Houston for now.

my doubts on maravich as a impact player(based on a multitude of weak results and other posters assesments of him) and the underwhelming added value of simmons career so far (essentially 3, maybe 4 good years and only 3 playoffs) makes me actually reconsider LSU

wake forest has a comparable top 2 and a bunch of nice careers....but i think i stay with lousiana for now

houston is really interesting that is a legit big 3 that beats wake forest and lousiana big 2's and their depth after thst may beat wake forest

compared to lousiana....is tricky, i have no issue with hayes>maravich based on what i know about both (although maybe maravich wins in influence factors?) and drexler-petit are comparable (maybe petit was slightly more dominant in his era but it was a somewhay weaker one)

since i am low on simmons overall career to this point i think hoouston players after top 3 seem pretty comparable

i wouldnt hate a "houston>lousiana" tbh and then there are both michigans still and central high school that has the best top players

spain with luka, serbia with jokic (how do we rank non nba legends like bodiroga?) marquette with wade and butler. tons of comparable teams right now

[falcolombardi]

i thinl now that there are not teams with huge depth of high end talent left (think dukes and kentuckys) teams with all time greats and 2 or more stars are probably gonna take priority over teams without stars but 30-40 unremarkable nba player