I had this discussion in another thread where I argued that 2013 LeBron gets underrated because of the context of the situation he faced. 2013 LeBron was facing one of the toughest defensive playoffs ever for a superstar. Going against young Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Kawhi who were all hungry athletic defensive stoppers. Then he had to go against Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, and Tim Duncan, the top 3 defensive rim protectors in the league. The #1, #3, and #6 defenses in the league. There has never been a wing player who to go against a tougher defensive slate. Even his 1st round against Milwaukee was no joke as he had to face Mbah a Moute and Peak Larry Sanders. He did all of that while playing with a hobbled Dwyane Wade who had to get his knees drained during the finals.
Then to top it off LeBron was a legit DPOY candidate in 2013. His finals defensive performance was underrated. He completely shut down Tony Parker when he guarded him. Everyone knows that LeBron scored 37 Points in Game 7 and hit the game clinching shot. What's forgotten is that LeBron was guarding Tony Parker for the whole 2nd half. Do you know what Tony Parker's stats was for the 2nd half? 0 Points, 1 Assists, 2 Turnovers, 0 Rebounds. Completely taken out of the picture by LeBron. He was scared to attack LeBron. This is peak Tony Parker who finished 6th in MVP voting.
colts18 wrote:2016 vs 2013 can't be compared in a straight manner. Context is very important.
2016 was the start of the pace and space era. 2013 was in the middle of a balanced era. 2016 Warriors was a much smaller team. The Spurs were a legimately all-time great defense team while the Warriors were merely a good defensive team especially when Bogut was not playing.
In 2013, LeBron was guarded by a 21 year old Kawhi Leonard. 2016 LeBron was guarded by a 32 year old Andre Iguodala. I believe that version of Kawhi was harder to score on.
The Spurs were a much bigger team. Duncan played 36 MPG while Splitter played 15 MPG. Bogut played a total of 60 minutes in the series (9 MPG). The Warriors had a few more minutes of Ezeli and Speights as bigs. Tim Duncan averaged a Career High 3.2 Blocks per 36 minutes in 2013. Duncan made All-Defense 1st team that year over Marc Gasol (DPOY). He was still a legitimate threat as a Rim protector. The Warriors best rim protector was Draymond Green was Shorter, Smaller, and slower than LeBron.
With Duncan on the court, LeBron averaged 29 Points per 100 with a 45 eFG%. When Duncan was off the court, LeBron averaged 45 Points per 100 on 61 eFG%. 2016 LeBron didn't have to contend with Duncan manning the paint.
The 2016 Cavs had better spacing than the 2013 Heat too. The 2013 Heat averaged 22 3PA/game while the 2016 Cavs averaged 29 3PA/game. In the playoffs, the 2016 Cavs had 30 3PA on 41 3P% while the 2013 Heat were 20 3PA on 38 3P%. The spacing in 2016 was another level. Especially when you focus on the star players.
You read those stats correctly. Neither Wade nor Bosh made a 3 pointer in the finals. Wade didn't even attempt a 3 pointer all finals. The gap in spacing from LeBron's "star" players was wide.
The other series LeBron played in were tougher also. He played a Bulls team with Jimmy Butler and Noah+Gibson in the paint. Then he played Paul George with Roy Hibbert protecting the paint. In 2016, LeBron played the Hawks with Kent Bazemore and Millsap/Horford in the paint. Then he played the Raptors with DeMarre Carroll with Biyombo/Patterson in the paint. He played 3 legitimate DPOY centers (Duncan, Noah, and Hibbert) and 3 Small Forwards who could be argued as All-Defense team members (Butler, George, and Kawhi). You can't compare the difficulty of 2013 with 2016
I've already talked about this plenty. If you're just judging based on performance, especially in the post-season/finals, then it's close. But in context both in terms of team composition, opposition faced, and skillset I think it's 2013 quite clearly.
I had this discussion in another thread where I argued that 2013 LeBron gets underrated because of the context of the situation he faced. 2013 LeBron was facing one of the toughest defensive playoffs ever for a superstar. Going against young Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Kawhi who were all hungry athletic defensive stoppers. Then he had to go against Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, and Tim Duncan, the top 3 defensive rim protectors in the league. The #1, #3, and #6 defenses in the league. There has never been a wing player who to go against a tougher defensive slate. Even his 1st round against Milwaukee was no joke as he had to face Mbah a Moute and Peak Larry Sanders. He did all of that while playing with a hobbled Dwyane Wade who had to get his knees drained during the finals.
Then to top it off LeBron was a legit DPOY candidate in 2013. His finals defensive performance was underrated. He completely shut down Tony Parker when he guarded him. Everyone knows that LeBron scored 37 Points in Game 7 and hit the game clinching shot. What's forgotten is that LeBron was guarding Tony Parker for the whole 2nd half. Do you know what Tony Parker's stats was for the 2nd half? 0 Points, 1 Assists, 2 Turnovers, 0 Rebounds. Completely taken out of the picture by LeBron. He was scared to attack LeBron. This is peak Tony Parker who finished 6th in MVP voting.
colts18 wrote:2016 vs 2013 can't be compared in a straight manner. Context is very important.
2016 was the start of the pace and space era. 2013 was in the middle of a balanced era. 2016 Warriors was a much smaller team. The Spurs were a legimately all-time great defense team while the Warriors were merely a good defensive team especially when Bogut was not playing.
In 2013, LeBron was guarded by a 21 year old Kawhi Leonard. 2016 LeBron was guarded by a 32 year old Andre Iguodala. I believe that version of Kawhi was harder to score on.
The Spurs were a much bigger team. Duncan played 36 MPG while Splitter played 15 MPG. Bogut played a total of 60 minutes in the series (9 MPG). The Warriors had a few more minutes of Ezeli and Speights as bigs. Tim Duncan averaged a Career High 3.2 Blocks per 36 minutes in 2013. Duncan made All-Defense 1st team that year over Marc Gasol (DPOY). He was still a legitimate threat as a Rim protector. The Warriors best rim protector was Draymond Green was Shorter, Smaller, and slower than LeBron.
With Duncan on the court, LeBron averaged 29 Points per 100 with a 45 eFG%. When Duncan was off the court, LeBron averaged 45 Points per 100 on 61 eFG%. 2016 LeBron didn't have to contend with Duncan manning the paint.
The 2016 Cavs had better spacing than the 2013 Heat too. The 2013 Heat averaged 22 3PA/game while the 2016 Cavs averaged 29 3PA/game. In the playoffs, the 2016 Cavs had 30 3PA on 41 3P% while the 2013 Heat were 20 3PA on 38 3P%. The spacing in 2016 was another level. Especially when you focus on the star players.
You read those stats correctly. Neither Wade nor Bosh made a 3 pointer in the finals. Wade didn't even attempt a 3 pointer all finals. The gap in spacing from LeBron's "star" players was wide.
The other series LeBron played in were tougher also. He played a Bulls team with Jimmy Butler and Noah+Gibson in the paint. Then he played Paul George with Roy Hibbert protecting the paint. In 2016, LeBron played the Hawks with Kent Bazemore and Millsap/Horford in the paint. Then he played the Raptors with DeMarre Carroll with Biyombo/Patterson in the paint. He played 3 legitimate DPOY centers (Duncan, Noah, and Hibbert) and 3 Small Forwards who could be argued as All-Defense team members (Butler, George, and Kawhi). You can't compare the difficulty of 2013 with 2016
I don’t think we needed a whole other thread for this lol
I mean I’ll regurgitate my main points for now and I guess make a more detailed response later on
I think lebron, in general at least, was a more impressive playmaker in 2016 than 2013. While it is true he had more spacing, it wasn’t as if they were in a constant 5 out like they were in the 2017 run, nor was 2013 a 3 out 2 in alignment. Beyond that I do think there’s evidence THT at the refs were swallowing their whistle for bron in that second stunt cavs run, but particularly in than playoff run, more than usual. Might be remembering wrong but it definately felt as if there were some times he’d drive into a packed paint and not dish it off early enough like giannis would today when there was a guy open, not nearly to the same extent, but I would want to look through his half court possessions to be sure.
Now, I think the issue comes down to
2016 bron, post all star break led an ATG offense, and during the first three rounds of the playoffs while he was on the court the cavs offense was more effective than the Warriors with both dray and Curry on the court that year over the RS. How much of this is down to him, vs other players being hot given their three point shooting is debatable of course
What we do know is over the first three rounds the cavs offense were historically good with lebron the court (per nba.com 121.5 off rtg, vs 102.5 off rtg off the floor).
This was consistent in every series as well.
Defensively you get an interesting pattern during that ECF run where they’re elite in all aspects with bron on the court, but with lebron off the court they suck except for in the raptors series where they are outlier good with him off the court bringing it down for that.
There are things working against bron in 2016, having a more on ball role and not having as much off ball opportunities within the offense, although I do think bron was great at making reads off help defense for example cutting when the help comes high vs from the baseline on drives, and I do think his off ball movement was better in 2016 than 2013 even though he had more of an on ball role then, in terms of making reads in the moment vs following the offense, and I think his passing was a bit better, more high risk which shows but more high value
At the end of the day I think the argument he played better defenses would be a lot stronger if the performances on the offensive end were comparable, but while I agree with that (I think other things might have been equalizers, him not getting calls to an absurd degree in comparison, which couldn’t have been just from spacing because of his ft rate going back up the year they went all in in that regard) his offense was easier in 2016 and the defenses he faced weren’t as good
Writing away the defenses bron faced as if the hawks weren’t the #2 defense in the league or that the Warriors weren’t a dominant defense when they played their minutes (and if they had a normal rotation/didn’t have the luxury to not play starters as much I think rank top 3?) and that their small ball lineups have kind of consistently been dominant defensively when locked in for years beyond isn’t fair either
I would agree he played against stronger defenses in the 2013 run sure, and that the spacing he had in 2016 was much better. I’d have to look into the fouls and missed shots to see if they were swallowing their whistle although it’s an outlier rate where he was still scoring in the paint.
Otoh, this isn’t a situation where he was a 8/10 vs these defenses in 2013 and an 8.5/10 against these tougher matchups in 2016 either, he did clearly have struggle at times in the halfcourt against both the bulls and the Spurs in terms of creating his own shot
In the 2013 playoffs lebron went against tougher defensive competition isn’t mutually exclusive with in the 2016 playoffs lebron was offensively more impressive
His 2013 defense vs San Antonio being a talking point here I feel doesn’t make sense since his defense against the Warriors was almost definately more impactful, albeit in a different role
Performance wise I’d wager 2016 takes it handily, taking it into context definately makes it closer but I don’t really think it closes the gap.
I’d have to watch both again to be sure but i do feel 2016 bron was better at picking his shots/drive and kicking it earlier/reading the D. It’s obv impossible to say if that’s true or not although he himself said when he was 27 (so his 2012 season) he hadn’t scratched the surface of what he was capable of. Whether or not you want to take his word for it is whatever, but playoffs especially I think iq>athleticism in general,
Well 2013’s regular season was clearly better imo, that was Lebron’s 2nd or 3rd best regular season really. His playoffs were still great even if they were a bit below expectations. I have to take 2013 given his defensive motor was much better from start to finish, and despite the narratives 16 Lebron didn’t win the finals all by himself. Both finals he started out poor but finished strong, so i’d rather not get into which series was closer. I mean if you’re making the case for 2016, it’s basically based on the finals. After 82 games and 3 rounds of the playoffs I don’t think they’re comparable.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: 2016 bron, post all star break led an ATG offense, and during the first three rounds of the playoffs while he was on the court the cavs offense was more effective than the Warriors with both dray and Curry on the court that year over the RS. How much of this is down to him, vs other players being hot given their three point shooting is debatable of course
I don't know why people tend to use "post all star break", instead of using the whole regular season. Lebron led a better offense and all around much better team in the regular season, not really a debatable point. If Wade plays more games they possibly break 70+ wins which is very rare territory.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:What we do know is over the first three rounds the cavs offense were historically good with lebron the court (per nba.com 121.5 off rtg, vs 102.5 off rtg off the floor).
The Hawks may have been top 2 in defense but the other 2 were not top 10.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:This was consistent in every series as well.
Consistent yes, but doesn't seem to stand out against what 13 lebron did through 3 rounds.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:At the end of the day I think the argument he played better defenses would be a lot stronger if the performances on the offensive end were comparable, but while I agree with that (I think other things might have been equalizers, him not getting calls to an absurd degree in comparison, which couldn’t have been just from spacing because of his ft rate going back up the year they went all in in that regard) his offense was easier in 2016 and the defenses he faced weren’t as good
Writing away the defenses bron faced as if the hawks weren’t the #2 defense in the league or that the Warriors weren’t a dominant defense when they played their minutes (and if they had a normal rotation/didn’t have the luxury to not play starters as much I think rank top 3?) and that their small ball lineups have kind of consistently been dominant defensively when locked in for years beyond isn’t fair either
I would agree he played against stronger defenses in the 2013 run sure, and that the spacing he had in 2016 was much better. I’d have to look into the fouls and missed shots to see if they were swallowing their whistle although it’s an outlier rate where he was still scoring in the paint.
I mean you are really looking at this the wrong way imo.
I'd argue the Pacers were better defensively than the Warriors or at least comparable, and Lebron crushed them despite having his secondary ball handler playing like garbage on offense, while simultaneously having to deal with 2 bigs beating them up down low because Bosh was too weak to handle Hibert, and Birdman could only play limited minutes. All while playing against an elite wing defender in George. I don't see 2016 Lebron even making the finals, not with that kind of matchup. Wade wasn't reliable on offense the way Kyrie was, and on top had to deal with big men who could score and Hibbert was arguably the best rim protector in the league. Didn't matter, Lebron still dealt with them.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:In the 2013 playoffs lebron went against tougher defensive competition isn’t mutually exclusive with in the 2016 playoffs lebron was offensively more impressive
His 2013 defense vs San Antonio being a talking point here I feel doesn’t make sense since his defense against the Warriors was almost definately more impactful, albeit in a different role
That was one series, and it wasn't noticeably better on defense than Lebron's 2013 series.
Also since that series in discussion, Wade was trash in 4/7 games really. You think 2016 easily wins that series? I doubt it. Wade did come up when it mattered, but it's really not apples to apples. Kyrie was clearly better offensively through those playoffs. Furthermore, I don't buy that Lebron had the stamina to play 2013 level defense all the way through the whole season.
What's really the argument aside from Lebron went to crazy levels in the last 3 games of the finals? If you weight that heavily fine, but it seems a bit questionable to just ignore such a large chunk of the season.
No-more-rings wrote:I don't know why people tend to use "post all star break", instead of using the whole regular season. Lebron led a better offense and all around much better team in the regular season, not really a debatable point. If Wade plays more games they possibly break 70+ wins which is very rare territory.
Lebron clearly went into a different mode post all star break, and does so later in the season. From the 2016 RAPM thread:
Spoiler:
SideshowBob wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:Thoughts: Part of me is concerned by how much we see even the top players RPM change. Not that Curry wasn't a worthy MVP, but it's possible that how he looked in the first half of the season (like the GOAT offensive player) is simply not sustainable. How much does that matter? I'm not sure. Even half a season of GOAT-like play seems really really impressive. To what extent is LeBron just lucky to peak at the right time and to what extent is it deliberate? My memory might be failing me , but I think it's a trend to see LeBron's RPM and RAPM numbers to go up at near the end of the season as he gets into "playoff mode". Kawhi, went from GOAT perimeter defender to merely all time great, but I'm not sure what that's about since I didn't watch him that closely at the end of the season. Might just be a weird math thing.
What do y'all think? Any conclusions we can draw from this? I know math-wise there are more things that go into a player's RPM change on any given date beyond their performances.
This is the 4th straight season this has happened - and it has always coincided with him turning up his play. In 2013 he ramped up his offense around late January (more selective/smarter shooting, better sense of how to attack defenses) and dialed up defensive effort following the all star break. In 2014 we observed him improving his defensive effort from February-onwards. In 2015 we noted that Cavs played at ~11 SRS +11 Offense level from Jan-April (Lebron returns + Moz/Shump/Smith). This season around March he started dialing it up (box-score stats were also below career-averages up to that point but then shot up to match career averages by the end of the RS) plus we noted him leading historic offense vs. EC while he clearly played smartly (30-40% off ball/screening/movement, healthy balance of high/low-post creation, solid spot-up shooting, smart defensive adjustments/switches and execution + best/2nd best rebounding of his PS career). I think its deliberate.
The cavs offense was pretty much equal to the heat offense when bron was on the floor per nba.com, with the cavs slightly worse in defense in that span (a gap of -0.2 for offense and 0.7 on defense). The offense post all star break with bron on the court was equal to the heats during their win streak. (Defense was the gap in that regard).
It’s different if it’s just a random stretch where he gets hot but he was ramping it up offensively.
We tend to reward players for team performance with them on the floor and dub it impact that extends beyond the box score. I’m not against that necessarily, and we can see if it fits or not by a deep dive. We can see it’s not purely a fluke because there was an extended period of time the cavs become an ATG+ offense with lebron on the floor when he went into post all star break mode
So is the fact that 2016 bron during his ECF run led an offense that was the best offense of all time up to that point, that was bottom of the league without him not something he gets points for?
I mean you are really looking at this the wrong way imo. I'd argue the Pacers were better defensively than the Warriors or at least comparable, and Lebron crushed them despite having his secondary ball handler playing like garbage on offense, while simultaneously having to deal with 2 bigs beating them up down low because Bosh was too weak to handle Hibert, and Birdman could only play limited minutes. All while playing against an elite wing defender in George. I don't see 2016 Lebron even making the finals, not with that kind of matchup. Wade wasn't reliable on offense the way Kyrie was, and on top had to deal with big men who could score and Hibbert was arguably the best rim protector in the league. Didn't matter, Lebron still dealt with them.
Comparing their ECF, I think it’s unfair to say 2016 bron doesn’t make it as if he struggled in the ECF.
Offensively 1 was akin to getting 100/100 on an easy test while the other was more similar to getting 96/100 on a harder test
I’m not going to say he was less impressive in the pacers series than the raptors series, but discounting the raptors series doesnt make sense.
He was certainly more dominant against the raptors, but the defense of the pacers was much better. Which evens it out.
26-8.5-7 on 66TS and 2 turnovers (in 36 minutes because every games a blowout), with elite D, with the offense being GOAT tier while he’s on the floor, isn’t a performance that really can be knocked in terms of his level of play. You can say it’s not as impressive as the pacers one, but that’s different
To be clear, this isn’t me saying “oh the raptors series is waaaay better”, or saying that the pacers series isn’t more impressive but if we’re gonna go series by series, you can’t say you would Fail a difficult exam if you get 100% on an easier one.
That was one series, and it wasn't noticeably better on defense than Lebron's 2013 series.
Also since that series in discussion, Wade was trash in 4/7 games really. You think 2016 easily wins that series? I doubt it. Wade did come up when it mattered, but it's really not apples to apples. Kyrie was clearly better offensively through those playoffs. Furthermore, I don't buy that Lebron had the stamina to play 2013 level defense all the way through the whole season.
What's really the argument aside from Lebron went to crazy levels in the last 3 games of the finals? If you weight that heavily fine, but it seems a bit questionable to just ignore such a large chunk of the season.
Are you trying to say 2016 finals bron wasn’t substantially better than 2013 finals bron?
I’d have to watch through both again defensively, but I’m fairly sure that they weren’t in the same tier defensively. Lebrons activity that series was absurd, and it felt like when he was under the rim the Warriors always made some type of mistake.
There actually isn’t any evidence that 2013 bron is a better defender than 2016 bron either. I believe that pretty much everything points to 2016 brons defense being better.
From home court loss
Spoiler:
[quote="homecourtloss"]I can agree with everything here though I think Wade’s injuries hampered his 2013 playoff run. LeBron was otherworldly good without Wade on court in 2013 and otherworldly good with Wade on court in 2012.
You’re right about the 2017 defense, and I agree with the 2017 offense being peak LeBron. In that playoff run, he only had two games below 54% eFG, and only 6 games below 60% eFG while having 6 games above 65% eFG which is absolutely wild.
About the 2016 defense: he did turn it up to extreme levels in the playoffs (i.e., all-time great wing defense), but also all the signs were there in the regular season, too.
LeBron, 2016 was not only top 50% in all play type tracking but at worst was top 27% in post up defense. Yes, there may not be many possessions in certain play types so there’s less meaning there, but every other player falls short somewhere. I haven’t seen a single player in the tracking area who is top 30% in all areas and very very few who are top 50% minimum in each.
Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler Top 3% in defending hand offs Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll Top 15% in defending off of screens Top 7% in defending in ISO Top 27% in post up defense Top 13% in spot up defense
Compare these numbers with these:
Kawhi, 2016—DPOY on a GOATy defensive team and maybe co-#1 option with LMA
Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler Top 22% in defending hand offs Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll Bottom 31% in defending off of screens Top 17% in defending in ISO Top 29% in post up defense Top 25% in spot up defense
Draymond, 2016—2nd in DPOY voting on a GOAT team and not the #1 option on offense
Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler Bottom 43% in defending hand offs Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll Top 2% in defending off of screens Top 15% in defending in ISO Top 11% in post up defense Top 34% in spot up defense
Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)
I have a synergy subscription, the percentiles are weird (they might be in comparison to scoring rather than everyone else’s defense)
12-13 RS 1.004pp spot up 0.811pp isolation 0.970pp off screen 0.444pp post up 0.914pp handoffs 0.563pp roll man
There’s more to it that synergy defensive stats, and luck adjusted DRAPM does have his 2013 defense way higher than raw does (neither higher than 2016 still).
At the very least the idea that they aren’t comparable on that end doesn’t seem true.
As for the argument for lebron in 2016 I think is pretty simple. I’ve already said my thoughts on his offense vs 2013s offense as for why I take 2016 brons offence, I felt he was smarter, his off ball movement was more effective in the sense it was more him creating something and making good reads than following a play at times (which isn’t to say that he wasn’t great at that in Miami too), I felt he missed less passing windows and this led to more high value assists and more turnovers, which based off of team results I think was worth it
Defensively I value 2016 bron in the playoffs more than 2013 bron in the playoffs, and the regular season gap is at best overstated, since while intuitively I also agree 2013 RS defense lebron>2016 RS defense lebron, and I don’t think synergy data is ever definitive even if I do think it’s valuable, tracking data as well (less valuable), and I don’t think the impact data is definitive as well. (We don’t have tracking for 2013 Tbf)
I do think that we can say that 2016 lebrons defense by pretty much every metric as a whole does grade out better than 2013 lebrons. While it’s by varying amounts, some measures it’s a moderate amount while others there’s a significant gap. I think his defense stepped up even more in the playoffs.
In the playoffs he faced weaker competition sure.
But in the first three rounds he (in my opinion) played elite defense, while his offense was great and the offense while he was on the floor was ATG+++ while it dropped to bottom 5 with him off the floor. A lot of this was hot shooting but it was consistent with his post all star boost as well, and there wasn’t a series where there was an outlier that might overstate his impact when looking at it as a whole.
I think he got more high value assists overall than in previous years and his off ball movement created opportunities when the offense stagnated a bit more (he was a better cutter) even if he was good at that in Miami.
Meanwhile in the finals I think his offense as a whole at least at the start might not have been at that level but his defense especially over the last 3-4 games was on a different level than he’s reached, including the Spurs series
I don’t really value the RS that much at all for players with championship aspirations, I think taking it into context is fine and contextually them winning a few more games has absolutely no value, and I generally value the later rounds more that earlier ones (although another way to say that is the competitive ones of that season vs the less comeptetice ones, a first round competitive series moves me based on circumstance).
I think 2016 playoff bron was better on both ends, defensively I’m fairly confident in that, I think if you broke it down you might even see a gap. but I’ll watch again to be sure, offensively it’s a case of, sure 2013 bron faced more difficult defenses but he Indians was the only time he faced a great defense and consistently dominated them.
I’m fairly sure that his defense in the Warriors series absolutely blows the 2013 Spurs series out of the water
I think 2017 Bron is peak Bron, mainly because of the Playoffs. Obviously he was better in the RS in 2013, but the Playoffs gap he has in 2017 is larger than the RS gap for me.
To apply the same logic to 2016, you have to ask if he was good enough in the 2016 Playoffs to make the same justification. The Finals were legendary obviously, but until the back half of the Raptors series it didn't seem like he needed to go past 3rd gear against the East. This might have something to do with the fact that his team was blowing out all comers and he really didn't NEED to go God mode yet.
Overall he was clearly better in the RS in 2013 and clearly better in the PS in 2016.
I understand the 2013 defenses he faced were nothing to sneeze at, but 2016 LeBron demolished the Warriors who weren't a joke on that end either.
Ughh I can't choose. Will need to come back to this.
2013 - he played in much tougher environment defensively in the playoffs and he still delivered. People forget that James outside of two games struggled a lot in 2016 finals as well (not to the same degree as in 2013 finals of course).
RS edge crushes any potential postseason advantage to me.
I think I will buck the trend and agree with you here, I think this is 2016.
The synergy stats on defense you posted are revealing, and on offense for me it is pretty simple: I think he was just more confident in 2016-18 in his own ability against elite defenses. There was a certain tentativeness in the 2013 Finals that he simply did not have in him 2016 onward. I remember the narrative that series was that he was too much in his own head, and going into game 6 a lot of talk was that we were watching a repeat of 2011.
Come game 6 of course he ended up saying **** it and had the huge 4th quarter + OT and it looked like he got back there mentally for the big game 7. But 3 years later, he was always locked in. There were no more question marks and as incredible as he was in game 5, by that point no one was even more surprised.
It's not something concrete and it sounds a bit Skip Baylessy, but just having been there for both and remembering how each year went, I'd just trust 2016 Bron more when the Playoffs start to get me a ring, all other things being equal (and I'm tempted to say this for all 3 of 2016-18 over 2012-14).
70sFan wrote:2013 - he played in much tougher environment defensively in the playoffs and he still delivered. People forget that James outside of two games struggled a lot in 2016 finals as well (not to the same degree as in 2013 finals of course).
RS edge crushes any potential postseason advantage to me.
He had a few games where he struggled but I feel his defensive impact more than makes up for the missed shots in game 7, and it was more he was passive than shooting his team out of games in the first few anyways
Game 7s was a defensive game, and while I agree that he struggled with his offense relatively, I don’t think it was a bad offensive game since his passing was so good, especially in the second half, at least considering the circumstances that no one was creating anything
As a whole, I’d say his defensive performance definately makes up for it, I think the point of “value” blocks and steals are important. Every single one of his blocks were basically “auto” buckets, Curry in transition, a crazy one off a cut, block by James, and both of his steals were in transition as like the last line of defense (easy buckets if he doesn’t get them, although maybe you argue TT gets there but I doubt it). That’s basically 10 points he saved on defense through that alone, and that’s not counting his general great rotations his great team defense him quarterbacking they team blowing up actions etc etc.
I think he was more too passive than struggling in the first few games, I don’t know if that equates to bad offense, but I think he only had one game where he was ineffecient without DPOY level defense, given that the whistle wasn’t in his side
He was great in game 3, while games 5 and 6 are his best playoff games ever along with G6 ECF 2012
In game 1 and 4, he was passive, but not necessarily ineffecient. I’m not too impressed with his assists in terms of high value assists that I think he gave more of in the first three rounds, but in game 1 4 of his misses were him missing a shot and missing the putback over and over again, which of course like 5 misses in one possession you make possible doesn’t make sense to be treated as 5 misses.
In game 1 taking those out (so in the first set he got the offensive board a bunch of times and then it led to a jump ball which he won, in the second he missed both putback attempts) he comes to relatively effecient overall despite being a bit too passive
In game 4, a good amount of his points were garbage time ones, as was 1 turnover, but I do think his passing and offensive rebounding both made up for it, and I think his defense was pretty solid as well.
On a game by game basis I do think his passivity was an issue in a few of the earlier games.
However, while I do agree offensively it’s, 1 great game, 2 fantastic games, 3 okay games and 1 poor one, when you consider his defense was absolutely fantastic in games 4-7, particularly 5-7 where it was probably otherworldly in that regard
Analyzing game 4 from the perspective of how impactful was he would be very interesting. His tracking data still looks the same as his other three games, or at least improved relative to g1-3, and I know rim tracking data is a bit more respected and i don’t think it includes blocks. (Based on me going to >10 feet lebron 4thQ last game and saying he was scores 1/1 times inside, so it didn’t count block by james!)
Intuitively I don’t think his defense was quite as impactful that game as in the next few ones, although the Warriors were only good offensively that game because they were hot from 3 + fts at the end, they shot about the same inside the arc as they did in the last three games
I think game 2 was the only game you can look at and say he was objectively really bad. In game 1, he was more passive than bad, whether or not that means the same thing I think is fair, in game 7 his defense more than makes up for his offensive shortcomings in a game that was a defensive grind anyway, and in game 4, he was passive offensively in a similar way and careless with the ball, but did other things to make up for it and I’m really curious to see what an analysis on his defense would look like
70sFan wrote:2013 - he played in much tougher environment defensively in the playoffs and he still delivered. People forget that James outside of two games struggled a lot in 2016 finals as well (not to the same degree as in 2013 finals of course).
RS edge crushes any potential postseason advantage to me.
He had a few games where he struggled but I feel his defensive impact more than makes up for the missed shots in game 7, and it was more he was passive than shooting his team out of games in the first few anyways
Game 7s was a defensive game, and while I agree that he struggled with his offense relatively, I don’t think it was a bad offensive game since his passing was so good, especially in the second half, at least considering the circumstances that no one was creating anything
As a whole, I’d say his defensive performance definately makes up for it, I think the point of “value” blocks and steals are important. Every single one of his blocks were basically “auto” buckets, Curry in transition, a crazy one off a cut, block by James, and both of his steals were in transition as like the last line of defense (easy buckets if he doesn’t get them, although maybe you argue TT gets there but I doubt it). That’s basically 10 points he saved on defense through that alone, and that’s not counting his general great rotations his great team defense him quarterbacking they team blowing up actions etc etc.
I think he was more too passive than struggling in the first few games, I don’t know if that equates to bad offense, but I think he only had one game where he was ineffecient without DPOY level defense, given that the whistle wasn’t in his side
He was great in game 3, while games 5 and 6 are his best playoff games ever along with G6 ECF 2012
In game 1 and 4, he was passive, but not necessarily ineffecient. I’m not too impressed with his assists in terms of high value assists that I think he gave more of in the first three rounds, but in game 1 4 of his misses were him missing a shot and missing the putback over and over again, which of course like 5 misses in one possession you make possible doesn’t make sense to be treated as 5 misses.
In game 1 taking those out (so in the first set he got the offensive board a bunch of times and then it led to a jump ball which he won, in the second he missed both putback attempts) he comes to relatively effecient overall despite being a bit too passive
In game 4, a good amount of his points were garbage time ones, as was 1 turnover, but I do think his passing and offensive rebounding both made up for it, and I think his defense was pretty solid as well.
On a game by game basis I do think his passivity was an issue in a few of the earlier games.
However, while I do agree offensively it’s, 1 great game, 2 fantastic games, 3 okay games and 1 poor one, when you consider his defense was absolutely fantastic in games 4-7, particularly 5-7 where it was probably otherworldly in that regard
Analyzing game 4 from the perspective of how impactful was he would be very interesting. His tracking data still looks the same as his other three games, or at least improved relative to g1-3, and I know rim tracking data is a bit more respected and i don’t think it includes blocks. (Based on me going to >10 feet lebron 4thQ last game and saying he was scores 1/1 times inside, so it didn’t count block by james!)
Intuitively I don’t think his defense was quite as impactful that game as in the next few ones, although the Warriors were only good offensively that game because they were hot from 3 + fts at the end, they shot about the same inside the arc as they did in the last three games
I think game 2 was the only game you can look at and say he was objectively really bad. In game 1, he was more passive than bad, whether or not that means the same thing I think is fair, in game 7 his defense more than makes up for his offensive shortcomings in a game that was a defensive grind anyway, and in game 4, he was passive offensively in a similar way and careless with the ball, but did other things to make up for it and I’m really curious to see what an analysis on his defense would look like
Is there any reason not to do the same thing with 2013 finals though? His defense was consistently great, he created a ton of shots for his teammates as well and he still had a few big games.
I am not trying to say that 2016 finals isn't amazing or that 2013 finals are just as good, but I think people overstate how much more resilient James became in 2016. Spurs defense was better suited to defend James than Warriors. James was better suited to defend Warriors than Spurs. James had better supporting cast in 2016 with Wade struggling. Yet all people who have 2016 over 2013 base it on finals comparisons, like the rest of the season doesn't matter.
Considering people write off 2010 as being one of Lebron's better years due to a few bad games against Boston (possibly due to his elbow), I don't see why on the contrary you couldn't pick 2016 on the basis of his best few games being better than his best games in 2013.
Heck the team offensive results were spectacular in 16 and was the continuation of arguably the most impressive 3 year PS offensive stretch depending on the context applied. People always argue that box-score stats undersell Magic's offensive impact greatly and well I don't see why the same couldn't be the case for 2016 Lebron based on the team offensive results.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:So is the fact that 2016 bron during his ECF run led an offense that was the best offense of all time up to that point, that was bottom of the league without him not something he gets points for?
But in the first three rounds he (in my opinion) played elite defense, while his offense was great and the offense while he was on the floor was ATG+++ while it dropped to bottom 5 with him off the floor. A lot of this was hot shooting but it was consistent with his post all star boost as well, and there wasn’t a series where there was an outlier that might overstate his impact when looking at it as a whole.
It was all hot shooting. I don't understand the guys here posting about "the all-time best postseason offenses". No it's not. You can't compare stats in the juiced pace and space era vs. any other team in history. All of those stats were because of insane 3 point shooting. It's like people saying Kirk Cousins is a historically great QB because he threw for 5,000 yards while not adjusting for the fact everyone's stats are inflated in this era.
The ECF run that you guys are citing had the Cavs shooting 33 3PA/game on 43.4 3P%. Of course they were going to post historical Offensive numbers with that kind of shooting. The 2013 Heat shot 19.8 3PA/game on 35.6 3P%. Outside of LeBron, the 2016 Cavs shot 45.1 3P% while the 2013 Heat shot 34.9 3P%. The 2017 Cavs who were also "historical". Same story. 34 3PA/game on 42 3P% in the 2017 playoffs. Has nothing to do with LeBron and everything to do with his Supporting cast unless you somehow think 2013 LeBron couldn't playmake like 2016 which is untrue.
I wonder if the Heat would have benefited more from LeBron's slimmer physique vs the bulkier physique he took to in Miami. There would be different pros and cons, but I really wonder what would have been more beneficial...
70sFan wrote:2013 - he played in much tougher environment defensively in the playoffs and he still delivered. People forget that James outside of two games struggled a lot in 2016 finals as well (not to the same degree as in 2013 finals of course).
RS edge crushes any potential postseason advantage to me.
He had a few games where he struggled but I feel his defensive impact more than makes up for the missed shots in game 7, and it was more he was passive than shooting his team out of games in the first few anyways
Game 7s was a defensive game, and while I agree that he struggled with his offense relatively, I don’t think it was a bad offensive game since his passing was so good, especially in the second half, at least considering the circumstances that no one was creating anything
As a whole, I’d say his defensive performance definately makes up for it, I think the point of “value” blocks and steals are important. Every single one of his blocks were basically “auto” buckets, Curry in transition, a crazy one off a cut, block by James, and both of his steals were in transition as like the last line of defense (easy buckets if he doesn’t get them, although maybe you argue TT gets there but I doubt it). That’s basically 10 points he saved on defense through that alone, and that’s not counting his general great rotations his great team defense him quarterbacking they team blowing up actions etc etc.
I think he was more too passive than struggling in the first few games, I don’t know if that equates to bad offense, but I think he only had one game where he was ineffecient without DPOY level defense, given that the whistle wasn’t in his side
He was great in game 3, while games 5 and 6 are his best playoff games ever along with G6 ECF 2012
In game 1 and 4, he was passive, but not necessarily ineffecient. I’m not too impressed with his assists in terms of high value assists that I think he gave more of in the first three rounds, but in game 1 4 of his misses were him missing a shot and missing the putback over and over again, which of course like 5 misses in one possession you make possible doesn’t make sense to be treated as 5 misses.
In game 1 taking those out (so in the first set he got the offensive board a bunch of times and then it led to a jump ball which he won, in the second he missed both putback attempts) he comes to relatively effecient overall despite being a bit too passive
In game 4, a good amount of his points were garbage time ones, as was 1 turnover, but I do think his passing and offensive rebounding both made up for it, and I think his defense was pretty solid as well.
On a game by game basis I do think his passivity was an issue in a few of the earlier games.
However, while I do agree offensively it’s, 1 great game, 2 fantastic games, 3 okay games and 1 poor one, when you consider his defense was absolutely fantastic in games 4-7, particularly 5-7 where it was probably otherworldly in that regard
Analyzing game 4 from the perspective of how impactful was he would be very interesting. His tracking data still looks the same as his other three games, or at least improved relative to g1-3, and I know rim tracking data is a bit more respected and i don’t think it includes blocks. (Based on me going to >10 feet lebron 4thQ last game and saying he was scores 1/1 times inside, so it didn’t count block by james!)
Intuitively I don’t think his defense was quite as impactful that game as in the next few ones, although the Warriors were only good offensively that game because they were hot from 3 + fts at the end, they shot about the same inside the arc as they did in the last three games
I think game 2 was the only game you can look at and say he was objectively really bad. In game 1, he was more passive than bad, whether or not that means the same thing I think is fair, in game 7 his defense more than makes up for his offensive shortcomings in a game that was a defensive grind anyway, and in game 4, he was passive offensively in a similar way and careless with the ball, but did other things to make up for it and I’m really curious to see what an analysis on his defense would look like
Is there any reason not to do the same thing with 2013 finals though? His defense was consistently great, he created a ton of shots for his teammates as well and he still had a few big games.
I am not trying to say that 2016 finals isn't amazing or that 2013 finals are just as good, but I think people overstate how much more resilient James became in 2016. Spurs defense was better suited to defend James than Warriors. James was better suited to defend Warriors than Spurs. James had better supporting cast in 2016 with Wade struggling. Yet all people who have 2016 over 2013 base it on finals comparisons, like the rest of the season doesn't matter.
This is the what-if key to me about '13. If Wade was healthy that year, I wonder if the unanimous consensus as to James' best year then becomes '13. As it is, it was a bumpier road, and therefore, casts a shadow on the question of whether it was his absolute peak or not.
That said, what '16 also has going in its favour is narrative, and very strongly so: winning it for Cleveland, coming back down 3-1 in the Finals, beating the first-ever unanimous MVP, taking down the winningest RS team in history... highlighting that year quite a bit for people, and rightfully so. Should it highlight it more than '13, considering all of the context I've listed, and probably more?
I'm not sure this is a question that will ever be fully settled upon.
If we bring up Wade's injuries in the playoffs brining down Lebron's postseason run relative to expectations, I would also think we should bring up Kyrie's injury in the regular season brining down Lebron's regular season run relative to expectations.
I think that season is sort of underrated in his career, his numbers weren't as eye popping but his defense was really great on what was a pretty bad defensive roster and offensively he had to deal with a pretty underwhelming cast for the first half the season yet they still managed to win 56 of the 76 games he played in (1-5 without).
Lets say hypothetically that Kyrie comes back 15 games sooner and is stronger as a whole and the team wins 62-63 games, suddenly that RS looks a lot better and people consider it among his peak seasons.
LookToShoot wrote:Melo is the only player that makes the Rockets watchable for the basketball purists. Otherwise it would just be three point shots and pick n roll.
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Considering people write off 2010 as being one of Lebrob's better years due to a few bad games against Boston (possibly due to his elbow), I don't see why on the contrary you couldn't pick 2016 on the basis of his best few games being better than his best games in 2013.
Heck the team offensive results were spectacular in 16 and was the continuation of arguably the most impressive 3 year PS offensive stretch depending on the context applied. People always argue that box-score stats undersell Magic's offensive impact greatly and well I don't see why the same couldn't be the case for 2016 Lebron based on the team offensive results.
I fundamentally disagree with how people evaluate 2010 as well based off the end of the Boston series. The Cavs screwed him by signing a megawashed Shaq but it seems to me that his skillset improved compared to 2009 (even though his D may have been slightly worse). His best passing season until later in his career, and a better jumpshooter/more scoring variety.
The caveat I will throw in is that his performance against the Celtics in the latter half of the series is one of the great mysteries of Lebron's career to me. I understand why he struggled in the 2011 finals and to a lesser extent 2013 in the playoffs, I don't have a good explanation for his performance against a Boston team that it seemed he had figured out at that point. I know about the whole Delonte West thing and honestly maybe it's true, idk, but either way that to me is by far the most inexplicable of all of Lebron's postseason performances.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: He had a few games where he struggled but I feel his defensive impact more than makes up for the missed shots in game 7, and it was more he was passive than shooting his team out of games in the first few anyways
Game 7s was a defensive game, and while I agree that he struggled with his offense relatively, I don’t think it was a bad offensive game since his passing was so good, especially in the second half, at least considering the circumstances that no one was creating anything
As a whole, I’d say his defensive performance definately makes up for it, I think the point of “value” blocks and steals are important. Every single one of his blocks were basically “auto” buckets, Curry in transition, a crazy one off a cut, block by James, and both of his steals were in transition as like the last line of defense (easy buckets if he doesn’t get them, although maybe you argue TT gets there but I doubt it). That’s basically 10 points he saved on defense through that alone, and that’s not counting his general great rotations his great team defense him quarterbacking they team blowing up actions etc etc.
I think he was more too passive than struggling in the first few games, I don’t know if that equates to bad offense, but I think he only had one game where he was ineffecient without DPOY level defense, given that the whistle wasn’t in his side
He was great in game 3, while games 5 and 6 are his best playoff games ever along with G6 ECF 2012
In game 1 and 4, he was passive, but not necessarily ineffecient. I’m not too impressed with his assists in terms of high value assists that I think he gave more of in the first three rounds, but in game 1 4 of his misses were him missing a shot and missing the putback over and over again, which of course like 5 misses in one possession you make possible doesn’t make sense to be treated as 5 misses.
In game 1 taking those out (so in the first set he got the offensive board a bunch of times and then it led to a jump ball which he won, in the second he missed both putback attempts) he comes to relatively effecient overall despite being a bit too passive
In game 4, a good amount of his points were garbage time ones, as was 1 turnover, but I do think his passing and offensive rebounding both made up for it, and I think his defense was pretty solid as well.
On a game by game basis I do think his passivity was an issue in a few of the earlier games.
However, while I do agree offensively it’s, 1 great game, 2 fantastic games, 3 okay games and 1 poor one, when you consider his defense was absolutely fantastic in games 4-7, particularly 5-7 where it was probably otherworldly in that regard
Analyzing game 4 from the perspective of how impactful was he would be very interesting. His tracking data still looks the same as his other three games, or at least improved relative to g1-3, and I know rim tracking data is a bit more respected and i don’t think it includes blocks. (Based on me going to >10 feet lebron 4thQ last game and saying he was scores 1/1 times inside, so it didn’t count block by james!)
Intuitively I don’t think his defense was quite as impactful that game as in the next few ones, although the Warriors were only good offensively that game because they were hot from 3 + fts at the end, they shot about the same inside the arc as they did in the last three games
I think game 2 was the only game you can look at and say he was objectively really bad. In game 1, he was more passive than bad, whether or not that means the same thing I think is fair, in game 7 his defense more than makes up for his offensive shortcomings in a game that was a defensive grind anyway, and in game 4, he was passive offensively in a similar way and careless with the ball, but did other things to make up for it and I’m really curious to see what an analysis on his defense would look like
Is there any reason not to do the same thing with 2013 finals though? His defense was consistently great, he created a ton of shots for his teammates as well and he still had a few big games.
I am not trying to say that 2016 finals isn't amazing or that 2013 finals are just as good, but I think people overstate how much more resilient James became in 2016. Spurs defense was better suited to defend James than Warriors. James was better suited to defend Warriors than Spurs. James had better supporting cast in 2016 with Wade struggling. Yet all people who have 2016 over 2013 base it on finals comparisons, like the rest of the season doesn't matter.
This is the what-if key to me about '13. If Wade was healthy that year, I wonder if the unanimous consensus as to James' best year then becomes '13. As it is, it was a bumpier road, and therefore, casts a shadow on the question of whether it was his absolute peak or not.
That said, what '16 also has going in its favour is narrative, and very strongly so: winning it for Cleveland, coming back down 3-1 in the Finals, beating the first-ever unanimous MVP, taking down the winningest RS team in history... highlighting that year quite a bit for people, and rightfully so. Should it highlight it more than '13, considering all of the context I've listed, and probably more?
I'm not sure this is a question that will ever be fully settled upon.
I already said this in the Lebron thread, if Wade doesn't get injured and they roll through the playoffs as a 70 win juggernaut, this would almost certainly be seen as Lebron's best season which is one of the reasons why I feel quite confident picking 2013 Lebron.
The way I look at it is, if I had to pick one version of Lebron to play with any random team any random time in NBA history run 1000 times, which version would I pick? The answer for me is quite clearly 2013.
