Larry_Russell wrote:hugepatsfan wrote:I'd like to see us start next year with a rotation of:
Smart / White
Brown / Pritchard
Tatum / ???
Horford / G Williams
R Williams / Theis
I'm not opposed to making bigger moves with the starting 5, but ultimately I just think we're best to run it back. Like 85% of the time everything seems to be clicking and running like a well oiled machine. Key is consistency. I feel like in tight situations they revert back to some bad habits. But for the overwhelming majority of the second half of the year it's been the good habits. I feel like they need a training camp and start to next year to further commit those good habits to memory and block out the bad. So I'd prefer to run it back and see if that happens, then re-evaluate at the deadline next year if we need big picture changes. And I extend that beyond the starting 5 to White/Grant on the bench as well. It's really the top 7 I'm cool with running it back on.
The "???" should be the best perimeter player we can get with the MLE or TPE. I listed him at SF because that's the smoothest presentation but really it can be any player at PG/SG/SF because of lineup versatility and how Ime staggers Tatum's and Brown's rest to always have one on the floor. Those would be the 10 guys I want playing nightly in the regular season. Then come playoff time, Theis and Pritchard drop out. You run with extended minutes for the 5 starters and the 3 best bench players (White, Grant, TPE/MLE acquisition).
I left Nesmith off the top 10 because he's proven 0 so far but I'm all for bringing him back as a 3rd unit guy, though I acknowledge that if ownership signs off on the TPE they might need to dump Nesmith to offset some of the cost). Guys will get hurt and there will be opportunities for him to get some minutes and you can see what he does with them. But can't go into next year with championship aspirations and trusting him to be a key piece, IMO.
For this season, Pritchard is the 8th man vs 9th which means we need some run out of him and while a nice player, I just don't think he's up to par for a playoff rotation. His weaknesses are too prevalent and his strengths are too subdued. He's a nice find as a regular season rotation guy and there's value in that. You would like to run a longer regular season rotation to keep guys fresher and injuries always happen to where you need guys who can step in. I'm also not opposed to moving on from Theis for a better backup 5. But I feel like the cost-benefit analysis will push against it. You're talking a guy who will project to play 15 minutes in the regular season and then fall out of the playoff rotation. And on a 2 year deal he's a negative value contract. I just don't see a move there being worth it. And as I said with Pritchard above, he's fine in his role as a 9th man. I don't see it worth the money/draft picks to improve on Pritchard/Theis as 9th/10th players.
The key to the offseason though is that "???" spot. We NEED to get one more playoff rotation perimeter player. It doesn't have to be an all star, not even close. I think the most important skill set to prioritize with that player is 3 point shooting. I feel like we very much need a shooter we trust to play up to 20 minutes in a big playoff game. Our spacing looks tough at times. Smart/White isn't enough shooting where you feel great about them playing together, especially with Rob out there as a non-shooter too. Tatum and Brown still struggle in traffic some so you'd like a guy who can keep defenses more honest and less able to collapse in on them. With a switch everything scheme, need someone who won't be a TOTAL liability out there, but we have to find a way to get some shooting in this spot for roe significant minutes. It will be huge in tying our lineups together for who plays with who.
It boils down to, like you posted, a playoff proven forward. Ideally I want a big forward who can give me PF minutes if needed as well.
And you cannot discount the need for a real contributor at backup center. Theis doesnt really give anything, and if Rob is hampered, we need a legit guy back there to fill in.
So my two targets are that.
Forward options in free agency with MLE
Ingles
Anderson
Warren
Prince
Center options in free agency with MLE
Nurkic
Ibaka
Bryant
TPE fits
Robinson
Powell
McDermott
Richardson
Kuzma
Hart
Oubre
Covington
Should be lots of options out there
I agree with running it back forthe most part, and with this line upexcept:
I have Pritchard as the 3rd point guard, and Theis as the 5th big. I think Nesmith is going to improve enough over this offseason to claim the backup SG spot behind Brown. I have the same top needs as you listed. We really need a backup vet SF behind Tatum and another big that would move Theis to 5th big. We can fill out the 3rd team with guys they want to keep around from the current squad, stashed draft picks, or whatever. So I have it as:
Smart, White, Pritchard
Brown, Nesmith, ???
Tatum, ???, ???
Horford, G. Williams, ???
R. Williams, ???, Theis
Our problem is we have a big TPE, but to use it we have to have:
1) a trade partner that want to move a player for salary reasons, and for future picks. We can't sign a FA with it. And hopefully our future picks are going to be late in the draft, because of our record.
2) the player has to be signed already, to at least a 1 year deal. A sign and trade would hard cap us and that just wouldn't work with the salary we already.
Terrance Ross (6'6), Kelly Oubre (6'7), Josh Richardson (6'5), Larry Nance JR. (6'7), Nerlens Noel (6'10), Justin Holiday (6'6), Rudy Gay (6'8), Kevin Knox (6'7), Jeff Green (6'8), and other I'm sure fit in the TPE, are only signed for 1 year, or are in an option year. None would hard cap us, and all are under 13 mil a season. Most are much less. All fit the size we would be looking for as a big forward. I know some on the list are bad on defense, but they would only be playing limited minutes behind the starters unless a game is missed for an injury or rest. I would like to see Rudy Gay (6,184,500) off the bench behind Tatum, and Nerlens Noel (9,240,000) behind Timelord. Gay and Noel combined make less than 15.5 mil, which fits in our Fournier's 17 mil TPE, or we could use Tristan Thompson's TPE of 9.7 mill for Noel, and the Hernangomez TPE of 6.9 mil for Gay.
Smart, White, Pritchard
Brown, Nesmith, Stauskas or FA
Tatum, Gay, Hauser or FA
Horford, G. Williams, 2022 2nd round pick or FA
R. Williams, Noel, Theis