97, 98, 99, 03, 04, 05 Shaq

[ceiling raiser]

In general, I think there is a tendency to view Shaq’s career as follows:

• Gets the Magic to the Finals over Jordan, loses to the 96 Bulls the next year
• Threepeat
• Ring as sidekick to Wade
• Journeyman

But realistically these six seasons are among the most important of Shaq’s prime years.

Exactly how good was Shaq these six years in your opinion in terms of ranking, and could those versions of Shaq have won on the 00-02 Lakers teams in peak Shaq’s place?

[70sFan]

I think 1998 was as close as it gets for three peat Shaq. He missed a lot of RS games, but it was arguably his best offensive season from per possession standpoint.

1999 was basically his peak level on offense, but his defensive effort was on all-time low level and it hurt Lakers overall.

2003 wasn't with perfect health either, but he was basically as good as in 2002 when he played.

1997 isn't the strongest season for him and he struggled in the playoffs. 2004 was clearly below his prime standards on both ends of the floor and I think 2005 is clearly overrated when people talk about his "robbed" MVP.

[Dutchball97]

Prior informed RAPM has the 2000 season on a tier of its own among Shaq's seasons (+8.5). The second tier seasons are 99, 98 and 04 (+7.5). Especially 2004 is a surprise since his offensive load was significantly reduced so his PER, WS/48 and BPM took quite a dive but his defensive impact seems pretty high and he was also still the most efficient scorer in the league, he did everything else like rebounding and passing as well as ever too, he just took less shots. This is definitely a bit of a lesson to me as to how BPM can suddenly downgrade a season dramatically with the only big change being about 4-7 FGA and 6-8 PPG less than the seasons before it without a big decrease in minutes played. I've definitely got to check other players where BPM might be underrating these seasons too much due to a decrease in scoring value. I think especially for seasons before 1997 where we don't have +- based stats this might be useful to look into deeper.

I got off track there but the next tier (around +6.5) is 03, 01, 02 and 05. 06 is around +5, while 97 is just over +4. Anything after 06 isn't comparable to before and we don't have the info for seasons before 97. By the looks of it it's pretty likely Shaq would've still got the 3-peat with any of the seasons you mentioned in the place of 00-02.

[JordansBulls]

1998 and 1999 he got swept despite having a loaded team.