RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 - 1990-91 Michael Jordan

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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#21 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:58 pm

I'm not qualified for this project. But it is interesting to me that there has been zero mention of Russell. Which makes me worried that peak is once again being connected mostly to offensive numbers. But Russell absolutely belongs in any discussions of greatest peak. His impact data if we had it, would almost certainly be the best we'd ever seen at least based on how far ahead the Celtics defense was of the league as a whole.

I hope he and other elite defenders start to get some traction sooner than later and this doesn't just become about the offensive stars.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#22 » by falcolombardi » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:00 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I'm not qualified for this project. But it is interesting to me that there has been zero mention of Russell. Which makes me worried that peak is once again being connected mostly to offensive numbers. But Russell absolutely belongs in any discussions of greatest peak. His impact data if we had it, would almost certainly be the best we'd ever seen at least based on how far ahead the Celtics defense was of the league as a whole.

I hope he and other elite defenders start to get some traction sooner than later and this doesn't just become about the offensive stars.


i actually dont feel completely qualified either but i am gonna be voting the picks i feel more confident on and the pkayers i feel more knowledgeable and sure about
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#23 » by Proxy » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:20 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I'm not qualified for this project. But it is interesting to me that there has been zero mention of Russell. Which makes me worried that peak is once again being connected mostly to offensive numbers. But Russell absolutely belongs in any discussions of greatest peak. His impact data if we had it, would almost certainly be the best we'd ever seen at least based on how far ahead the Celtics defense was of the league as a whole.

I hope he and other elite defenders start to get some traction sooner than later and this doesn't just become about the offensive stars.
I was strongly considering him for #3 and he will possibly be my #4. I think the Celtics dominance is even more impressive when you look at their team ratings using an actual relative scale like TS+(ex: being +5 per 100 possessions has different value in each era and it has more in lower scoring environments like the 60s than it does now), w/ a team level pace adjustment than the more commonly used method using absolutes, as well as looking at the SRS ranges of the era.

To have their type of outlier dominance in a league with SRS ranges being lower where it is harder to create separation is incredible.

https://www.backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SRS-Ranges.png

(Note that they do supress their own numbers because of how badly they dragged down league averages and they don't play themselves so maybe it's worth adjusting for that because how many times they played other teams and calculating league averages without them)

I also do hope this list does not devolve into slanting too much towards offense despite tons of evidence showing individual offense and defense were closer in value the further you go back.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#24 » by TheGOATRises007 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:55 pm

1. Michael Jordan 1991

It's basically a flawless season. Jordan's offensive and defensive peak fusing at once. I consider it his physical peak too.

31.6 PER, 60% TS, 8.7% TOV at 32.9% USG, .321 WS/48, 12.0 BPM, 10.8 VORP, 125 ORTG, 102 DRTG, 43-7-8 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the RS.

41-11-9 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the playoffs. 127 ORTG and 101 DRTG in the playoffs. 32% PER, 60% TS and 9% TOV at +32.7% USG rate with a 14.6 BPM. There's probably more metrics, but I don't have access to some of them.

I would say it's the most efficient offensive season of all-time considering the scoring efficiency, turnover economy and playmaking prowess in the season.

There's not much difference from this season compared to the prior one, except for defensive metrics grading out a bit better.

From sansterre's top 100 post on the '91 Bulls:

Usage: 33.7% -> 32.9%
TS%: 60.6% -> 60.5%
ScoreVal: 2.5 -> 2.8
PlayVal: 1.4 -> 1.2
OBPM: +9.1 -> +8.9
DBPM (BP): +1.6 -> +2.8
VORP: +10.6 -> +10.8

1991 Jordan: 36.4 points on +10.2% shooting, 7.7 Reb, 13.3 Ast, 4.2 TO, 3.3 Stl, 1.6 Blk in the finals

Arguably has the best series of his career in the finals as well. I'll try and add more.

HM: 90 Jordan


2. 2009 LeBron James

I've gone back and forth on LeBron's peak, but I see no argument at all against it being 2009 at this point. Even if you consider his shooting to be an outlier in the playoffs, I don't subscribe to the argument, because there's a fairly good sample size either way and his jumper was good in the RS too. Peaks are somewhat 'outliers' anyways.

Colts18 pretty much laid out all of the incredible metrics he posted that season:

colts18 wrote:

Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61


From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6

3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9

2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4

1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2

2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent :o ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0. :o

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8



Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.


Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)

3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)



LeBron's turnover economy was incredible in the playoffs as well. By far his best season in that regard.

I suppose I don't put him 1st, because while I'm 100% positive this is his best season, I'm not sure if his offensive/defensive peak are in this season. It's definitely his physical peak.

I don't think it's his offensive peak arguably and not his defensive peak arguably, but it has the best combination of both IMO, so that's why I've put it as LeBron's peak. The fact that most people have 2013/2016 as his peak is even further proof of him not having a consensus peak(even though I think 2009 has the best argument).

Either way, it's splitting hairs over the best peak.

HM: 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 2016 LeBron, 2017 LeBron, 93 Jordan, 91 Jordan

3: 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

By far his best season. Most dominant paint presence in NBA history. Monstrous +22.9 on-off in the playoffs that season. 10.9 + on-off in the RS. Arguably had the best finals performance of all-time vs the Pacers.

I suppose I'm a bit lower on Shaq's defense than most. I think he's a small positive or even neutral on that end, whereas I think LeBron and Jordan grade out as clear positives. Pretty much the main difference in him slotting down to 3rd.

I'll try and add more. I'm swamped on time.

HM: 03 Duncan, 67 Wilt, 77 Kareem, 17 Curry, 64 Russell, 94 Hakeem.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#25 » by Purch » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:05 pm

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:1. Michael Jordan 1991

It's basically a flawless season. Jordan's offensive and defensive peak fusing at once. I consider it his physical peak too.

31.6 PER, 60% TS, 8.7% TOV at 32.9% USG, .321 WS/48, 12.0 BPM, 10.8 VORP, 125 ORTG, 102 DRTG, 43-7-8 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the RS.

41-11-9 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the playoffs. 127 ORTG and 101 DRTG in the playoffs. 32% PER, 60% TS and 9% TOV at +32.7% USG rate with a 14.6 BPM. There's probably more metrics, but I don't have access to some of them.

I would say it's the most efficient offensive season of all-time considering the scoring efficiency, turnover economy and playmaking prowess in the season.

There's not much difference from this season compared to the prior one, except for defensive metrics grading out a bit better.

From sansterre's top 100 post on the '91 Bulls:

Usage: 33.7% -> 32.9%
TS%: 60.6% -> 60.5%
ScoreVal: 2.5 -> 2.8
PlayVal: 1.4 -> 1.2
OBPM: +9.1 -> +8.9
DBPM (BP): +1.6 -> +2.8
VORP: +10.6 -> +10.8

1991 Jordan: 36.4 points on +10.2% shooting, 7.7 Reb, 13.3 Ast, 4.2 TO, 3.3 Stl, 1.6 Blk in the finals

Arguably has the best series of his career in the finals as well. I'll try and add more.

HM: 90 Jordan


2. 2009 LeBron James

I've gone back and forth on LeBron's peak, but I see no argument at all against it being 2009 at this point. Even if you consider his shooting to be an outlier in the playoffs, I don't subscribe to the argument, because there's a fairly good sample size either way and his jumper was good in the RS too. Peaks are somewhat 'outliers' anyways.

Colts18 pretty much laid out all of the incredible metrics he posted that season:

colts18 wrote:

Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61


From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6

3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9

2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4

1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2

2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent :o ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0. :o

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8



Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.


Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)

3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)



LeBron's turnover economy was incredible in the playoffs as well. By far his best season in that regard.

I suppose I don't put him 1st, because while I'm 100% positive this is his best season, I'm not sure if his offensive/defensive peak are in this season. It's definitely his physical peak.

I don't think it's his offensive peak arguably and not his defensive peak arguably, but it has the best combination of both IMO, so that's why I've put it as LeBron's peak. The fact that most people have 2013/2016 as his peak is even further proof of him not having a consensus peak(even though I think 2009 has the best argument).

Either way, it's splitting hairs over the best peak.

HM: 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq

3: 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

By far his best season. Most dominant paint presence in NBA history. Monstrous +22.9 on-off in the playoffs that season. 10.9 + on-off in the RS. Arguably had the best finals performance of all-time vs the Pacers.

I suppose I'm a bit lower on Shaq's defense than most. I think he's a small positive or even neutral on that end, whereas I think LeBron and Jordan grade out as clear positives. Pretty much the main difference in him slotting down to 3rd.

I'll try and add more. I'm swamped on time.

HM: 03 Duncan, 67 Wilt, 77 Kareem, 17 Curry, 64 Russell


I'm curious based on your Hm's, do you not think that highly of Hakeem's peak, especially when considering his defensive impact?
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#26 » by 90sAllDecade » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:08 pm

These are fluid and subject to change with new info during the project, but as it stands:

1. 91 Jordan - The highest combined two-way impacting peak. LeBron is very close and I can see arguments for both, Jordan had much better talent around him and faced slightly better competition than LeBron but their closeness statistically is tipped to MJ IMO due to winning it all and pre major no hand-checking rule/three-point higher volume eras which would have enhanced Jordan even more.

2. 09 LeBron - I prefer this LeBron right now since he didn't have prime Wade, Bosh, or Spoelstra who is regarded already as an all-time great coach. No super team and he was the entire hub for his team offensively and defensively. Winning 66 RS games, but when they faced a real defensive team in the postseason in Orlando they lost with HCA, but a very impressive peak all time.

3. 94 Hakeem - A pretty much perfect peak season winning MVP, DPOY, Finals MVP, an NBA championship, and was third in the league in scoring as a center, no other player including the two above has achieved that feat in one year. I may also be underselling him here when digging deeper into team support, defense, and competition. He was also the hub of the team serving as both the offensive and defensive anchors, no all-star or HOF teammates, he also destroyed a HOF center in his prime in Ewing both offensively and defensively with clutch play to close it out.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#27 » by TheGOATRises007 » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:08 pm

Purch wrote:
Eddy_JukeZ wrote:1. Michael Jordan 1991

It's basically a flawless season. Jordan's offensive and defensive peak fusing at once. I consider it his physical peak too.

31.6 PER, 60% TS, 8.7% TOV at 32.9% USG, .321 WS/48, 12.0 BPM, 10.8 VORP, 125 ORTG, 102 DRTG, 43-7-8 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the RS.

41-11-9 per 100 possessions at 7% rTS in the playoffs. 127 ORTG and 101 DRTG in the playoffs. 32% PER, 60% TS and 9% TOV at +32.7% USG rate with a 14.6 BPM. There's probably more metrics, but I don't have access to some of them.

I would say it's the most efficient offensive season of all-time considering the scoring efficiency, turnover economy and playmaking prowess in the season.

There's not much difference from this season compared to the prior one, except for defensive metrics grading out a bit better.

From sansterre's top 100 post on the '91 Bulls:

Usage: 33.7% -> 32.9%
TS%: 60.6% -> 60.5%
ScoreVal: 2.5 -> 2.8
PlayVal: 1.4 -> 1.2
OBPM: +9.1 -> +8.9
DBPM (BP): +1.6 -> +2.8
VORP: +10.6 -> +10.8

1991 Jordan: 36.4 points on +10.2% shooting, 7.7 Reb, 13.3 Ast, 4.2 TO, 3.3 Stl, 1.6 Blk in the finals

Arguably has the best series of his career in the finals as well. I'll try and add more.

HM: 90 Jordan


2. 2009 LeBron James

I've gone back and forth on LeBron's peak, but I see no argument at all against it being 2009 at this point. Even if you consider his shooting to be an outlier in the playoffs, I don't subscribe to the argument, because there's a fairly good sample size either way and his jumper was good in the RS too. Peaks are somewhat 'outliers' anyways.

Colts18 pretty much laid out all of the incredible metrics he posted that season:

colts18 wrote:

Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61


From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6

3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS% :o :o :o

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9

2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4

1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2

2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent :o ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0. :o

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8



Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.


Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)

3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)



LeBron's turnover economy was incredible in the playoffs as well. By far his best season in that regard.

I suppose I don't put him 1st, because while I'm 100% positive this is his best season, I'm not sure if his offensive/defensive peak are in this season. It's definitely his physical peak.

I don't think it's his offensive peak arguably and not his defensive peak arguably, but it has the best combination of both IMO, so that's why I've put it as LeBron's peak. The fact that most people have 2013/2016 as his peak is even further proof of him not having a consensus peak(even though I think 2009 has the best argument).

Either way, it's splitting hairs over the best peak.

HM: 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq

3: 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

By far his best season. Most dominant paint presence in NBA history. Monstrous +22.9 on-off in the playoffs that season. 10.9 + on-off in the RS. Arguably had the best finals performance of all-time vs the Pacers.

I suppose I'm a bit lower on Shaq's defense than most. I think he's a small positive or even neutral on that end, whereas I think LeBron and Jordan grade out as clear positives. Pretty much the main difference in him slotting down to 3rd.

I'll try and add more. I'm swamped on time.

HM: 03 Duncan, 67 Wilt, 77 Kareem, 17 Curry, 64 Russell


I'm curious based on your Hm's, do you not think that highly of Hakeem's peak, especially when considering his defensive impact?


I've gone back and forth on Hakeem in my all-time rankings, but I admit I forgot him for a second. He'd definitely make it in the honorable mentions. I'll edit him in.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#28 » by LA Bird » Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:27 am

Vote from E-Balla via PM because he can't post on this board:

E-Balla wrote:1. 2003 Tim Duncan - I'll be voting not for for I think is the best player, instead I will be voting for who I think had the best seasons. I figure it'd make it much easier to have everyone graded on what they did, not what I think they'd be able to do. With that said the argument for Duncan over Shaq, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, etc. falls into 3 different categories.

Competition/Cast:
Spoiler:
2003 Duncan has individual player competition like non other. In 2003 there's zero argument that anyone was better than Duncan but what's also forgotten about 2003 is how many other players that could make this list peaked in 2003. The fact that Duncan was the clear best player in the league with so many other top 40ish (and a duo of top 10ish) peaks makes his body of work more impressive.

Shaquille O'Neal who is going to be getting 1st place votes for his play in 2000 and 2001 was still in his prime and close to his 2000 and 2001 level of play in 03. On it's own I think it would be a top 10 season here. In terms of his statistical performance his play was in line with his play during the threepeat. I'm not the biggest BPM fan but his highest postseason BPM ever came in 03. He also had his highest rTS% for any season he scored over 20 ppg in 2003. Looking at the advanced +/- numbers Shaq was 3rd in NPI RAPM and RAPM, and 2003 was in the middle of a stretch where Shaq was consistently top 3 in RAPM from 2001-2005.

Kevin Garnett also will be seeing votes in the top 10 for 2004 and 2003. He's the other player along with Duncan and Shaq filling out the top 3 in RAPM and having an amazing peak.

On the lower end of stars that were amazing in 2003 specifically we have the two SGs that will be looking to be voted in along with Jerry West, Stephen Curry, and D. Wade when we get into the teens/twenties, 2003 T-Mac (clearly his best season) and 2003 Kobe (arguably his best season).

Also did I forget to mention peak Jason Kidd (expect him towards the end of the list) and 2003 Dirk (leading a +7 offense for the 2nd year in a row)?

Duncan being above all these guys without much of a doubt is a testament to exactly how great he was. The other guys getting votes at this spot (91 MJ, 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq) didn't have 2nd best players as good as any of the top 5 players in 2003. I think 2013 KD and 91 Magic are closer to 2003 Dirk than 2003 KG.

Duncan also has the worst supporting cast of any champion getting a look this early. I don't think I need to do much convincing of that. The Spurs had a +9.1 net rating with Duncan on the court and a -5.6 without him. In the playoffs from 2001-2003 Duncan has the highest APM ever (Duncan and KG are the only players with top 50 APM peaks on both sides of the ball), highest raw on/off ever (+27.4), and if you look at Duncan's DAPM he's 2nd all time to Dikembe for his peak. By RAPM Duncan is right under LeBron, Shaq, and KG as the best 5 year peak ever (it's harder to go by single year with RAPM).

Looking at PIPM (probably the best all in one statistic for gauging impact - y'all know I'm not a big all in one fan but I know others respect it) 2003 Tim Duncan is 4th in PIPM Wins Added. 2016 Draymond, 2004 KG, and 2009 LeBron are the only players better. All 3 of those players famously didn't win a ring. For champions 2003 Duncan is #1 all time. 2000 Shaq is 2nd, 2013 LeBron is 3rd, 2016 LeBron is 4th, and 1991 MJ is 5th. Duncan also rates #1 all time in postseason AuPM per game. Now I don't think it's a coincidence these well respected all in one stats single out a top 3 similar to most of the top 3s I see in this thread (Bron, MJ, Shaq in some order) but including Duncan. He's not generally seen as on the same tier as these guys, maybe he should be.


Postseason Performance:
Spoiler:
Duncan definitely has the most impressive postseason here. Even without the quad double being officially counted.

Duncan probably had the best defensive postseason ever (excluding Bill Russell). The Spurs had a -8.0 rDRTG in the playoffs that year led by Duncan. Duncan averaged 3.3 bpg that postseason and honestly probably directly affected at least another 2-3 plays a night (and he had 2 infamously unrecognized blocks). He was everywhere. For example I rewatched game 6 of the WCSF recently and Duncan had 2 blocks and 10 defensive rebounds on the box score, but he forced another 3 missed shots (2 jumpers, 1 at the rim) and 1 turnover.

In their first series against a great team they faced the defending 3 time champion Lakers. The Lakers were 50-32 so many think they fell off that year, but that's after a 26-25 start. They ended the season 24-7 and lost to the Spurs because of Duncan's defensive disruptiveness and his 28/12/5 on 57 TS% with only 2 TOVs a night. He followed that up with 28/17/6 with 3 TOVs a night on 60 TS% against the Mavs in the WCF. In the Finals Duncan broke the Finals block per game record with 32 blocks in 6 games (should've been at least 34). Overall he averaged 24/17/5 with 5 BPG against the Nets.

People might say his competition on a team level wasn't as strong as others but I think that's underrating the Lakers a lot. They're still a solid championship level squad in 03. Other than Rick Fox's injury I don't think they were weaker than the 02 Lakers. If anything with Devean George improving they were a bit better. The Mavs were down 2-1 with a healthy Dirk but I don't know how y'all would judge that as comp. Personally I see it as proof the Spurs probably would've still beat them at full strength but it's arguable. The Spurs also swept the Lakers in the regular season in 03 and from 99-04 they were 23-25 against LA overall so it's not like he wasn't used to beating LA.


Underrated Offense?:

Spoiler:
I think offensively is where many think Tim falls short. In 2002 when the team was healthy the Spurs had a +4.4 offense. In 2001 they had a +3.6 offense. In 06 they had a +4.8 offense when healthy. In 07 they had a +4.1 offense. Duncan was able to be the key cog in a decent offense while also being the best defensive player in the league through most of his prime. In 03 he happened to have little help on the offensive end, but he still led a +2.0 offense (+2.6 in the playoffs).

For 3 year peaks when compared to Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Karl Malone, and Shaq in the postseason Duncan has the 2nd lowest scoring volume to KG but ranks 1st in scoring efficiency and 2nd to Hakeem in box creation (as provided by Elgee/TB).

In terms of adjusted scoring in 03 Duncan averaged 23.7 points per 75 on +4.5 rTS% (equal to 25.6 points per 75 on 61.1 TS% adjusted to 2022). He might've not been the highest volume scorer but his 25.5 AST% in the 03 run is higher than Giannis' in 2021 to compare it to the 2nd best PF season ever.


Overall I'm expecting to be the only Duncan vote for now, but I think he deserves serious consideration if we're talking the greatest single seasons of all time. He might or might not be better than Shaq, Jordan, and LeBron, but he certainly played like he was.

2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

The MDE. The clear best offensive player in the game and arguably top 5 defensively. The greatest part of this year was his consistency. He was only under 20 points 7 times that regular season, under 45% from the field 7 times, and the icing on the cake of this season was a 38/17 finals series (he averaged that while missing 9.5 FTs a game and having a game where he was 17/39 on FTs).

3. 2001 Shaq - When it comes to "perfect" seasons (seasons in which players were clearly the best player on the floor in almost every game played - let's say 90%) Hakeem, Jordan, Lebron, Wilt, etc. have them and usually I place them over a year like 2001 but on second thought maybe that was wrong. Shaq was half assing it this year. Defensively the Lakers ranked 21st and Shaq's on/off wasn't too hot on that end. There's no getting past that when discussing this season. Beyond that he was still the clear best offensive player in the league leading the Lakers to a +5.4 offense and when needed he became professional and absolutely obliterated teams now that he had another superstar in Kobe Bryant next to him.

At the end of the season Shaq decided to turn it on and averaged 34/13/4 on 63 TS% (122 ORTG) while going 9-1 (their one loss was by 1 point against the Knicks where Shaq had 31 points on 13 shots in 38 minutes while his team had 47 combined points on 30% shooting). Then in the playoffs they turned into the GOAT team next to the 2017 Warriors having a +21 net rating and going 15-1. In their one loss Shaq had 44 points, 20 rebounds (6 offensive), and 5 assists on 17/28 shooting against the DPOY and IMO the GOAT modern era defender. Overall Shaq had 20/10 in all but one of his last 33 games of the season (he had 19/14 against San Antonio in game 2). If 2000 Shaq is the most dominant season ever 2001 once Shaq gave a damn is what that same player would look like on a stacked team like the ones most of these guys we're mentioning outside of Duncan, Shaq, and Hakeem had.

4. 1991 Michael Jordan

No weaknesses, no downsides. Just an absolutely perfect season.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#29 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:07 am

I am somebody who is very big on metrics, however I think several players have had severe warping impacts on the game.

Shaquille O'Neal (2001) - Faced consistent double teams internally, destroyed some of the best defensive big men in league history, and gave dozens of seven footers with big bodies eight digit contracts for over a decade. At the peak of his powers Shaq faced off against David Robinson in the WCF and Dikembe Mutombo in the Finals and crushed both. Following the 01 Finals the league eliminated the illegal defense guidelines, allowing players to double/front off-ball.

Bill Russell (1964) - Honestly, if you have Bill Russell in your top five, I think you have to either have his peak years extremely high, or have him as the best player in the league every year of his career. I think both are acceptable approaches, however I am in bucket one. By 1964 Bill Russell had mastered the game defensively, and with Cousy retiring, the Celtics changed their pace -- and had the best DRtg in league history en route to winning a title.

Stephen Curry (2017) - Trapped all over the court. Teams were so terrified of him getting the ball anywhere in the half court, that they allowed one of the top five scorers of all-time in Kevin Durant to face single mismatched defenders constantly, and left possibly the second best shooter in league history wide open time after time. What happens when you don't sell out? Look at the first four games of the 2022 Finals.

Several other players had monster peaks, and all are acceptable choices. Jordan, LeBron, Kareem, Bird, Hakeem, Walton and others come to mind. But these three players are kind of on an island, to me.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#30 » by trelos6 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:11 am

1. ‘91 Jordan. 32 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% with elite D.

2. ‘13 Lebron. 28.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% with elite D. Was a terrific passer and shot the 3 ball very well.

3. ‘16 Curry. 31.9 pp75 on +12.8 rTS%. With the “Curry gravity” making life easier for his teammates.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#31 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:18 am

Haven't seen any mentions of Walton so far, which is interesting.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#32 » by TheGOATRises007 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:18 am

trelos6 wrote:1. ‘91 Jordan. 32 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% with elite D.

2. ‘13 Lebron. 28.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% with elite D.

3. ‘16 Curry. 31.9 pp75 on +12.8 rTS%.


Don't you find Curry's playoffs disappointing compared to his RS level?

Jordan and LeBron those years didn't suffer a dip like Curry did in the 16 playoffs.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#33 » by homecourtloss » Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:42 am

1. 2009 LeBron James. Nothing new here, but would like to point out that a 66 win, 8+ SRS team almost always wins titles (2016 Spurs, 2016 Warriors, 2009 Cavs the only exceptions). To get to this level with the supporting cast he had is remarkable. And then to exceed that level in the post season adds to it. Some of those BPM numbers from extraordinary two-way play and scoring+offense creation+turnover economy is incredible to back and look at. It’s the the most polished version of James, but the most impactful. 2012 James played a complete season though I don’t think his top level was as good as 2013 or what he did in the 2016 playoffs.
(2013 James)
(2016 James)

2. 1977 Kareem. This is peak offensive Kareem who was still impactful defensively. The efficacy of his scoring offense with such little variance from game to game probably makes it the most reliable scoring offense of any peak. If only that 1977 team had a semblance of a decent supporting cast, this season would be remembered differently,
(1974 Kareem)
(1972 Kareem)

3. 1991 Jordan. Contention for GOAT season. Jordan’s playmaking abilities and offensive awareness grew while his athleticism remained. TOV economy was incredible
(1990 Jordan)
(1989 Jordan)

4. 2000 Shaq
5. 1967 Wilt
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#34 » by eminence » Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:33 am

homecourtloss wrote:66 win, 8+ SRS team almost always wins titles (2016 Spurs, 2016 Warriors, 2009 Cavs the only exceptions)


Not super relevant to the thread, but I'd like to give Reds first squad the '47 Capitols a shout, who went 49-11 and +8.99 SRS in the opening BAA season
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#35 » by JordansBulls » Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:48 am

1. 1991 MJ - All around great season, all nba first team and defense, led in scoring beat the 2x defending champion, beat the guy who finished 2nd in MVP voting on an all time great team for a franchise that never won before and drafted him and was the only allstar on the squad.

2. 1971 Kareem - 2nd year in the league won league mvp, finals mvp for a franchise that never won before and drafted him.

3. 1994 Hakeem - MVP, DPOY the same year, won title for franchise that never won before and that drafted him and didn't switch teams to win.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#36 » by Blazers-1977 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:38 am

1. 1990-91 MJ: MJ still had all the athleticism from the 1980s version of himself and was almost as skilled offensively as he was in his 2nd 3 peat and add it all together you probably have the GOAT Offensive Peak. What separated him out in 1991 from his other 3 peat years are he was a better defender in 91 than he was in 92 and 93 and the Bulls didnt really struggle in any playoff series in 91 unlike 92 and 93

2. 1999-00 Shaq: This was Shaq at the peak of his powers offensively and defensively imo and unlike in 2001 and 2002, Kobe has not developed into a Super Star yet which made Shaq have to carry more of the load than he did in 01 and 02 which is why I would say 2000 was the peak of his career.

3. 1970-71 Kareem: I feel that he peaked offensively with the Bucks and imo getting swept in 1977 puts that season below this season
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#37 » by ardee » Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:53 am

1. 2017 LeBron James

Honestly I think you could pick probably argue like 5 other seasons as LeBron's peak, it just shows you how great he is. I do think the best he ever played was the 2018 Playoffs but the hand injury in the Finals plus the weaker defense in the RS makes me go 2017 by default.

The RS isn't what makes his case here, but he still had probably his best RS since 2014. 26.4/8.6/8.7, 55% from the field, and actually shot 36% from 3. He missed 8 games and the team had a PD of 5.25 with him vs -16 without him. They lost all 8 games he missed, 6 of them by double digits. Using rough SRS calculations, they were basically a 5.4 SRS team with him and a -15 SRS team without him. So he was still having ridiculous impact in the RS.

The Playoffs tho... I mean, good grief. His averages were 32.8/9.1/7.8 on 64.9% TS. 56.5% from the field and 41.1% from 3. These are basically his vaunted 2013 efficiency numbers but in the Playoffs. These box score numbers translated to stupendous impact as seen by the Cavs putting together the BEST Playoff offense of all time. Yes, a 120.3 ORtg is the greatest of all time. +13.2 relative to the defenses he was facing.

His On/Off increases to a +30.7 per 100 possessions in the Playoffs, +19.9 on offense. So with him off the floor they were a 104.1 ORtg team, even with Kyrie and Love, 28th in the league. With him playing they were 124, so greatest of all time. it's a simple calculation, best ever with him, almost worst in the league without. Now THAT'S impact.

He reached an offensive level in 2017 and 2018 no one else ever has, and as a result his total impact cannot be matched this year because he still clearly also had it on defense. It shows up in both box score and impact numbers. He scored 30 or more on 50% or more from the field in 14/18 games. People claim he played weak competition, but his best series came against the GOAT 2017 Warriors: 34/12/10 on 63% TS.

This might not look like the most "perfect" season in that he didn't win the title or MVP, but in terms of sheer impact and goodness I can't pick against this year from LeBron.

HM: 2009, 2013, 2016 LeBron

2. 1991 Michael Jordan

Enough has been said about this season from him. I think it's a pick 'em between this and 1990, the latter has the case of him being better from 3, but his 3 was fine in the 1991 Playoffs so it was there when it counted.

I think his first 3 games against the Lakers in the Finals are probably the 2nd best ever 3 game stretch anyone has ever had after LeBron's last 3 games against the Warriors in 2016.

If you want to pick the most "perfect" season start to finish it's probably this, but I believe that in terms of sheer impact LeBron was better.

HM: 1990 Jordan

3. 2000 Shaq

This is difficult for me, not having Wilt in the top 3. But I've been doing some re-evaluating and I don't think I can deny Shaq's impact was higher at their respective bests.

Just stupidly dominant, and on both ends. This was the one year Shaq really tried on both ends all year and the results were spectacular. He won the scoring title, was second in rebounds and third in blocks. Almost a unanimous MVP and 2nd in DPoY. 19, 16 and 11 game winning streaks.

His effort in the Playoffs was mammoth, he was +22.9 On/Off and clearly did everything he could to get that team to a title, against a veritable murderer's row of opponents (played 4 of the other top 7 SRS teams somehow), and in the most important series he was often triple teamed by Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace and the 7'3 300 lb Sabonis.

HM: 2001 Shaq
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#38 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:09 am

LA Bird wrote:Vote from E-Balla via PM because he can't post on this board:

E-Balla wrote:1. 2003 Tim Duncan - I'll be voting not for for I think is the best player, instead I will be voting for who I think had the best seasons. I figure it'd make it much easier to have everyone graded on what they did, not what I think they'd be able to do. With that said the argument for Duncan over Shaq, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, etc. falls into 3 different categories.

Competition/Cast:
Spoiler:
2003 Duncan has individual player competition like non other. In 2003 there's zero argument that anyone was better than Duncan but what's also forgotten about 2003 is how many other players that could make this list peaked in 2003. The fact that Duncan was the clear best player in the league with so many other top 40ish (and a duo of top 10ish) peaks makes his body of work more impressive.

Shaquille O'Neal who is going to be getting 1st place votes for his play in 2000 and 2001 was still in his prime and close to his 2000 and 2001 level of play in 03. On it's own I think it would be a top 10 season here. In terms of his statistical performance his play was in line with his play during the threepeat. I'm not the biggest BPM fan but his highest postseason BPM ever came in 03. He also had his highest rTS% for any season he scored over 20 ppg in 2003. Looking at the advanced +/- numbers Shaq was 3rd in NPI RAPM and RAPM, and 2003 was in the middle of a stretch where Shaq was consistently top 3 in RAPM from 2001-2005.

Kevin Garnett also will be seeing votes in the top 10 for 2004 and 2003. He's the other player along with Duncan and Shaq filling out the top 3 in RAPM and having an amazing peak.

On the lower end of stars that were amazing in 2003 specifically we have the two SGs that will be looking to be voted in along with Jerry West, Stephen Curry, and D. Wade when we get into the teens/twenties, 2003 T-Mac (clearly his best season) and 2003 Kobe (arguably his best season).

Also did I forget to mention peak Jason Kidd (expect him towards the end of the list) and 2003 Dirk (leading a +7 offense for the 2nd year in a row)?

Duncan being above all these guys without much of a doubt is a testament to exactly how great he was. The other guys getting votes at this spot (91 MJ, 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq) didn't have 2nd best players as good as any of the top 5 players in 2003. I think 2013 KD and 91 Magic are closer to 2003 Dirk than 2003 KG.

Duncan also has the worst supporting cast of any champion getting a look this early. I don't think I need to do much convincing of that. The Spurs had a +9.1 net rating with Duncan on the court and a -5.6 without him. In the playoffs from 2001-2003 Duncan has the highest APM ever (Duncan and KG are the only players with top 50 APM peaks on both sides of the ball), highest raw on/off ever (+27.4), and if you look at Duncan's DAPM he's 2nd all time to Dikembe for his peak. By RAPM Duncan is right under LeBron, Shaq, and KG as the best 5 year peak ever (it's harder to go by single year with RAPM).

Looking at PIPM (probably the best all in one statistic for gauging impact - y'all know I'm not a big all in one fan but I know others respect it) 2003 Tim Duncan is 4th in PIPM Wins Added. 2016 Draymond, 2004 KG, and 2009 LeBron are the only players better. All 3 of those players famously didn't win a ring. For champions 2003 Duncan is #1 all time. 2000 Shaq is 2nd, 2013 LeBron is 3rd, 2016 LeBron is 4th, and 1991 MJ is 5th. Duncan also rates #1 all time in postseason AuPM per game. Now I don't think it's a coincidence these well respected all in one stats single out a top 3 similar to most of the top 3s I see in this thread (Bron, MJ, Shaq in some order) but including Duncan. He's not generally seen as on the same tier as these guys, maybe he should be.


Postseason Performance:
Spoiler:
Duncan definitely has the most impressive postseason here. Even without the quad double being officially counted.

Duncan probably had the best defensive postseason ever (excluding Bill Russell). The Spurs had a -8.0 rDRTG in the playoffs that year led by Duncan. Duncan averaged 3.3 bpg that postseason and honestly probably directly affected at least another 2-3 plays a night (and he had 2 infamously unrecognized blocks). He was everywhere. For example I rewatched game 6 of the WCSF recently and Duncan had 2 blocks and 10 defensive rebounds on the box score, but he forced another 3 missed shots (2 jumpers, 1 at the rim) and 1 turnover.

In their first series against a great team they faced the defending 3 time champion Lakers. The Lakers were 50-32 so many think they fell off that year, but that's after a 26-25 start. They ended the season 24-7 and lost to the Spurs because of Duncan's defensive disruptiveness and his 28/12/5 on 57 TS% with only 2 TOVs a night. He followed that up with 28/17/6 with 3 TOVs a night on 60 TS% against the Mavs in the WCF. In the Finals Duncan broke the Finals block per game record with 32 blocks in 6 games (should've been at least 34). Overall he averaged 24/17/5 with 5 BPG against the Nets.

People might say his competition on a team level wasn't as strong as others but I think that's underrating the Lakers a lot. They're still a solid championship level squad in 03. Other than Rick Fox's injury I don't think they were weaker than the 02 Lakers. If anything with Devean George improving they were a bit better. The Mavs were down 2-1 with a healthy Dirk but I don't know how y'all would judge that as comp. Personally I see it as proof the Spurs probably would've still beat them at full strength but it's arguable. The Spurs also swept the Lakers in the regular season in 03 and from 99-04 they were 23-25 against LA overall so it's not like he wasn't used to beating LA.


Underrated Offense?:

Spoiler:
I think offensively is where many think Tim falls short. In 2002 when the team was healthy the Spurs had a +4.4 offense. In 2001 they had a +3.6 offense. In 06 they had a +4.8 offense when healthy. In 07 they had a +4.1 offense. Duncan was able to be the key cog in a decent offense while also being the best defensive player in the league through most of his prime. In 03 he happened to have little help on the offensive end, but he still led a +2.0 offense (+2.6 in the playoffs).

For 3 year peaks when compared to Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Karl Malone, and Shaq in the postseason Duncan has the 2nd lowest scoring volume to KG but ranks 1st in scoring efficiency and 2nd to Hakeem in box creation (as provided by Elgee/TB).

In terms of adjusted scoring in 03 Duncan averaged 23.7 points per 75 on +4.5 rTS% (equal to 25.6 points per 75 on 61.1 TS% adjusted to 2022). He might've not been the highest volume scorer but his 25.5 AST% in the 03 run is higher than Giannis' in 2021 to compare it to the 2nd best PF season ever.


Overall I'm expecting to be the only Duncan vote for now, but I think he deserves serious consideration if we're talking the greatest single seasons of all time. He might or might not be better than Shaq, Jordan, and LeBron, but he certainly played like he was.

2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

The MDE. The clear best offensive player in the game and arguably top 5 defensively. The greatest part of this year was his consistency. He was only under 20 points 7 times that regular season, under 45% from the field 7 times, and the icing on the cake of this season was a 38/17 finals series (he averaged that while missing 9.5 FTs a game and having a game where he was 17/39 on FTs).

3. 2001 Shaq - When it comes to "perfect" seasons (seasons in which players were clearly the best player on the floor in almost every game played - let's say 90%) Hakeem, Jordan, Lebron, Wilt, etc. have them and usually I place them over a year like 2001 but on second thought maybe that was wrong. Shaq was half assing it this year. Defensively the Lakers ranked 21st and Shaq's on/off wasn't too hot on that end. There's no getting past that when discussing this season. Beyond that he was still the clear best offensive player in the league leading the Lakers to a +5.4 offense and when needed he became professional and absolutely obliterated teams now that he had another superstar in Kobe Bryant next to him.

At the end of the season Shaq decided to turn it on and averaged 34/13/4 on 63 TS% (122 ORTG) while going 9-1 (their one loss was by 1 point against the Knicks where Shaq had 31 points on 13 shots in 38 minutes while his team had 47 combined points on 30% shooting). Then in the playoffs they turned into the GOAT team next to the 2017 Warriors having a +21 net rating and going 15-1. In their one loss Shaq had 44 points, 20 rebounds (6 offensive), and 5 assists on 17/28 shooting against the DPOY and IMO the GOAT modern era defender. Overall Shaq had 20/10 in all but one of his last 33 games of the season (he had 19/14 against San Antonio in game 2). If 2000 Shaq is the most dominant season ever 2001 once Shaq gave a damn is what that same player would look like on a stacked team like the ones most of these guys we're mentioning outside of Duncan, Shaq, and Hakeem had.

4. 1991 Michael Jordan

No weaknesses, no downsides. Just an absolutely perfect season.


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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#39 » by 2klegend » Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:37 am

1. Jordan '91 - MJ by this time is the MOST complete player by far. His REG season average and playoff avg are almost identical. That is very hard to do when he had to play all 82 games and carried that offensive load in the playoff. His opponents, while from a SRS perspective were not that great. But he defeated against the likes of Ewing's Knick (swept), Barkley's Sixer (4-1), the mighty 2x defending champ Pistons (swept), and MVP Magic (4-1). He had total domination and control of every series. There was no period in any series where you can question Jordan playing out of control and thus was force to put stat in order to secure win. That's IMPRESSIVE.

2. Lebron '12 - While many argued '09 should be his peak due to his crazy playoff stat. I don't. '09 is an outliner in my book, the same as '88 Hakeem. '09 Lebron beat nobody. Chaucey 'Pistons? Joe Johnson Hawks? Come on . He got smack by Dwight's Magics because his team got exposed, largely due to him demanding the ball all the times. Thus it was easy for him to rack up insane stat because the Magics series were never under his control. He literally put up empty stat in a losing effort against a team that aren't even good to begin with. Magic lost 4-1 to Kobe's Lakers. People argue ''12 or '13 as his true peak which I agree. Lebron by this time is a much complete player. '12 he wanted "revenge" and for the first time he actually played alpha to Wade. They also beat a very impressive KD, Westbrook, Harden OKC juggernaut in a very convincing matter, similar to how '91 Jordan Bulls beat everyone, regardless of how other teams compete. '13 is a good case but he got "lucky" that Pop made a mistake at the last second of Game 6; otherwise we wouldn't be sitting here debating whether '12 vs '13 as his true peak. I favored '12 for simple fact that Lebron was in total control of his destiny.

3. '00 Shaq - Okay that guy is a beast. Shaq was on a mission that year. Nothing will stop him. He is just unstoppable in the regular and playoff. For the first time, '00 Shaq came very close to being the DPOY worthy with his 13.6reb and 3.0bpg. That type of contribution deserved DPOY. But it's the fact Shaq increased his output in the post season and his determination to anchor the middle frighteen opposing teams. Not to mention his level of competitions were all +3.0 SRS type team.
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Re: RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 

Post#40 » by trelos6 » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:22 am

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:
trelos6 wrote:1. ‘91 Jordan. 32 pp75 on +7.1 rTS% with elite D.

2. ‘13 Lebron. 28.1 pp75 on +10.5 rTS% with elite D.

3. ‘16 Curry. 31.9 pp75 on +12.8 rTS%.


Don't you find Curry's playoffs disappointing compared to his RS level?

Jordan and LeBron those years didn't suffer a dip like Curry did in the 16 playoffs.



Curry was injured. You can see in 2017 his impact (albeit with KD on the team now). ‘16 he was not 100% and still very good in the playoffs.

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