Who do you want us to take at #1?

[magician4ever]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

You could make the same “pictures” argument for pre-NBA Jokic, Doncic, KD and Giannis. Players that are the first of their kind are met with much trepidation by job-fearing GMs. Not to say there should be supreme confidence Chet will be an incredible player, but he has the tools, IQ, and motor to be special. Fortunately our FO will be going off much more than pictures and eye tests. Whether our pick is Chet or not, I trust them to make the best call they can make with the information they have.

Jokic and Giannis were never in contention for the #1 pick, there was a reason Giannis was always considered a reach at the time and Jokic was a 2nd round pick. Question marks are more acceptable the further you get from the #1 pick.

Durant was less frail than Chet and was always a wing not a big.

Luka had been dominating in Europe as a kid.

Jokic and Giannis not being #1 picks wasn’t a parameter of your thought experiment lol. Doncic did dominate, but again you’re deviating from the parameters you set in your thought experiment. Durant may have had a little more weight on him than Chet, but by pictures, they have the same, narrow shoulder build wiry frame.

And btw — Giannis was never considered a reach lol. Several teams tried to trade up to get him. That has been documented.

All I’m saying is that many players who have changed the league did so in a way never seen before in the league.

Even though Chet is historically skinny, he uses his BBIQ to leverage it to gain advantage. His motor is high and doesn’t back down from the physicality his frame would suggest he’d back away from.

[Bigmagicfan82]

KD couldn’t lift the bar at the combine, and yet was around 20 pounds heavier than Chet.

Chet has noticeably narrower shoulders than any example brought up in terms of ‘skinny’ comparisons.

In all fairness Chet didn't even participate in the combine so we don't know if he could lift his own weight either.

[ogmagicfan]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

So many questions? I can only think of 1... and that's his weight. If he was 220 right now.... he could be a consensus #1 pick right now.

Jabari is the one out of the top 3 that has "so many questions to answer"

Chet isn't 220, or close so that point is moot. He doesnt have the frame to support a considerable weight gain.

Let alone his suspect numbers against ranked competition and when playing bigger players. I can't help but look at Chet's numbers/advanced numbers less favorably than presented.

The difference btwn Chet's weaknesses & Jabari is the biggest question mark for Chet is something that isn't teachable. It's nice that he's aggressive and doesn't shy from contact, but it doesn't matter how much a player doesn't shy away from contact if they still don't possess the strength to initiate legitimate contact and make plays instead of being thrown around like a rag doll.

Jabari to me has the best chance to be a star, and his weaknesses are usually overstated when look more deeply into. He scored a considerable amount of his baskets off the dribble, his finishing was college average, and his passing ability was as good if not slightly better than Chet's. While being on the worse team out of the 3 and being the youngest.

Unquestionably Jabari & Paolo are better offensive prospects than Chet, so if you believe Chet's defense will be so transcendent that we can't miss, then he's your pick.

Me personally, I'm tired of drafting defensive players first who offensively need work to their game. Jabari is far more polished in every sense, and defensively has all-NBA potential as well, and if anything is the better perimeter defender than Chet.

Considering the league is going more into 3's his ability to defend the perimeter and help on switches will be key. The Warriors & Celtics had games where half of each teams shots were from 3.

[Bigmagicfan82]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

So many questions? I can only think of 1... and that's his weight. If he was 220 right now.... he could be a consensus #1 pick right now.

Jabari is the one out of the top 3 that has "so many questions to answer"

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

[tiderulz]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

So many questions? I can only think of 1... and that's his weight. If he was 220 right now.... he could be a consensus #1 pick right now.

Jabari is the one out of the top 3 that has "so many questions to answer"

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

[RookieStar]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

We can also play that game when we show pictures of AD and KD. Guys all stick and bones.. you could even say that guy vouldnt even bench 160lbs or soemthing.

except, KD was 20 lbs heavier than Chet, AD 25 lbs heavier. and KD played wing, not post. and both were a year younger.

Thats the thing.. i really dont know Chets weight right now and i think majority as well. I mean that 195lbs was done last year before the ncaa season if im right? ( correct me if im wrong ) you would think he is more than 200lbs im the combine like when kd was weighed.

[Bigmagicfan82]

So many questions? I can only think of 1... and that's his weight. If he was 220 right now.... he could be a consensus #1 pick right now.

Jabari is the one out of the top 3 that has "so many questions to answer"

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Agreed but that is still a big question mark. We need a guy that can score. How many time are we going to draft a person that is great on defense, with question marks on their offense, and then just hope for the best?

[pepe1991]

Smith took 150 shots more to score 120 points more than Chet.

Being "better scorer" in this case just means being willing to throw ball in air more times. If you want scorer, draft Banchero. He scored more than Jabari, by also, just throwing more balls in air.

[ruffian253]

Chet at the beginning of the season wasn't the same assertive Chet towards the latter part of the season. Obviously, offensively, the zags were Drew Timme's team in addition to the balance attack that the Zags employ, which has produced the top offensive efficiency team the last 5 years and the #1 seaded team over the last few years. So basing Chets numbers purely on his offensive numbers against top 25 teams doesn't tell the whole story as Zags play these teams at the beginning of the season. Found this on reddit (FIBA highlights) and you can see his high level potential/ceiling from these highlights.

Watch on YouTube

;feature=youtu.be

[tiderulz]

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Agreed but that is still a big question mark. We need a guy that can score. How many time are we going to draft a person that is great on defense, with question marks on their offense, and then just hope for the best?

totally agree. i do not see him as someone that will be a #1 or #2 option on offense. if he can stay healthy, he will be a good 2-way player, very good to great on defense and solid on offense. Rudy Gobert with offense. if he is chosen, im not going to hate it, just not sure he should be the pick. I go back and forth amongst a few players and still dont have anyone locked in for the pick.

[Nyce_1]

• Auburn’s Jabari Smith, who worked out and met with the Magic (No. 1) and Thunder (No. 2) during the predraft process, is a virtual lock to go in the top two in the draft. He remains a favorite to go No. 1.

https://theathletic.com/3373269/2022/06/20/nets-kyrie-irving-nba-news/

[MagicFan101]

As much as I appreciate the idea that you want to draft a player with an elite skill set, I just think the the #1 pick should be an all-or-nothing pick. Orlando should be swinging for the generational rare elite talent that can’t be compared to anyone outright. People vying for Jabari should have wanted the #2 or #3.

Orlando already has a bunch of one way B+ guys that aren’t primary options and franchise cornerstones. Is everyone 100% sure Jabari is more than that? The gamble is whether or not Chet is that player moreso than Jabari. That answer isn’t going to come from college stats.

I personally don’t think bigs can be THAT player in todays nba. I’m just coming around to the idea that Chet has the better mentality, upside, and overall game compared to Smith. Worst case is Orlando misses on smith and finds another stretch 4 that can hit 3’s at a high clip. So what? There’s no Holmgren out there that replaces his weird two-way skill set. Orlando needs to swing for the fences if they think Chet has the highest upside and more diverse play style.

I’m ok with either Jabari or Chet. I just think that Chet is the kind of player you will regret taking more than Jabari if he pans out. Jabari doesn’t seem like a primary option with all the information we have.

I get it and I agree with you … to a degree.

If Chet hits, he could be what? KG - KD hybrid? That’s probably a bad comp but how do you build a profile for someone so rare and special when they reach their potential? However, if he busts it will be equally spectacular in the legendary status (Darko and Bennett territory).

Jabari meanwhile is a Rashard Lewis who plays defense. A bigger Kris Middleton? A better Kris Middleton? That’s not KG - KD but you’re getting a rock solid all-star for many years to come.

It’s hard. It’s very hard.

[Skybox]

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Agreed but that is still a big question mark. We need a guy that can score. How many time are we going to draft a person that is great on defense, with question marks on their offense, and then just hope for the best?

totally agree. i do not see him as someone that will be a #1 or #2 option on offense. if he can stay healthy, he will be a good 2-way player, very good to great on defense and solid on offense. Rudy Gobert with offense. if he is chosen, im not going to hate it, just not sure he should be the pick. I go back and forth amongst a few players and still dont have anyone locked in for the pick.

I agree. I think Chet will be impactful, like Mobley, but not a star-particularly on offense. We really need a 22ppg guy, bonus if he stretches the floor and plays D. I feel like Jabari can be the "designated scorer" for this team. When I was in college, there was this cocky soccer player who broke school records for scoring, but there was another kid at midfield who did all the work, transitioning from defense to offense. The first kid was a deadeye shot, and was in the right spot to finish and, in true soccer fashion, took the big victory lap and the pile-on from his teammates, and got all the girls. I always felt like the midfielder was the best guy on the team, despite the scorer's headline-grabbing optics. Later, I really grasped that BOTH were elite at their jobs...That's how I see Franz & Jabari's trajectory.

[tiderulz]

As much as I appreciate the idea that you want to draft a player with an elite skill set, I just think the the #1 pick should be an all-or-nothing pick. Orlando should be swinging for the generational rare elite talent that can’t be compared to anyone outright. People vying for Jabari should have wanted the #2 or #3.

Orlando already has a bunch of one way B+ guys that aren’t primary options and franchise cornerstones. Is everyone 100% sure Jabari is more than that? The gamble is whether or not Chet is that player moreso than Jabari. That answer isn’t going to come from college stats.

I personally don’t think bigs can be THAT player in todays nba. I’m just coming around to the idea that Chet has the better mentality, upside, and overall game compared to Smith. Worst case is Orlando misses on smith and finds another stretch 4 that can hit 3’s at a high clip. So what? There’s no Holmgren out there that replaces his weird two-way skill set. Orlando needs to swing for the fences if they think Chet has the highest upside and more diverse play style.

I’m ok with either Jabari or Chet. I just think that Chet is the kind of player you will regret taking more than Jabari if he pans out. Jabari doesn’t seem like a primary option with all the information we have.

I get it and I agree with you … to a degree.

If Chet hits, he could be what? KG - KD hybrid? That’s probably a bad comp but how do you build a profile for someone so rare and special when they reach their potential? However, if he busts it will be equally spectacular in the legendary status (Darko and Bennett territory).

Jabari meanwhile is a Rashard Lewis who plays defense. A bigger Kris Middleton? A better Kris Middleton? That’s not KG - KD but you’re getting a rock solid all-star for many years to come.

It’s hard. It’s very hard.

not sure thats fair as Lewis was a good defender.

[bigdogdylan5]

As much as I appreciate the idea that you want to draft a player with an elite skill set, I just think the the #1 pick should be an all-or-nothing pick. Orlando should be swinging for the generational rare elite talent that can’t be compared to anyone outright. People vying for Jabari should have wanted the #2 or #3.

Orlando already has a bunch of one way B+ guys that aren’t primary options and franchise cornerstones. Is everyone 100% sure Jabari is more than that? The gamble is whether or not Chet is that player moreso than Jabari. That answer isn’t going to come from college stats.

I personally don’t think bigs can be THAT player in todays nba. I’m just coming around to the idea that Chet has the better mentality, upside, and overall game compared to Smith. Worst case is Orlando misses on smith and finds another stretch 4 that can hit 3’s at a high clip. So what? There’s no Holmgren out there that replaces his weird two-way skill set. Orlando needs to swing for the fences if they think Chet has the highest upside and more diverse play style.

I’m ok with either Jabari or Chet. I just think that Chet is the kind of player you will regret taking more than Jabari if he pans out. Jabari doesn’t seem like a primary option with all the information we have.

I get it and I agree with you … to a degree.

If Chet hits, he could be what? KG - KD hybrid? That’s probably a bad comp but how do you build a profile for someone so rare and special when they reach their potential? However, if he busts it will be equally spectacular in the legendary status (Darko and Bennett territory).

Jabari meanwhile is a Rashard Lewis who plays defense. A bigger Kris Middleton? A better Kris Middleton? That’s not KG - KD but you’re getting a rock solid all-star for many years to come.

It’s hard. It’s very hard.

Exactly this! I am becoming mistrustful of anyone who thinks this is a clear choice between one of these 3. I am sure we will all look back and play some monday morning QB if we dont pick the best guy but damn people should respect how hard this is. Your projecting really young individuals.

[yoyojw17]

So many questions? I can only think of 1... and that's his weight. If he was 220 right now.... he could be a consensus #1 pick right now.

Jabari is the one out of the top 3 that has "so many questions to answer"

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Good point. and that to me mean that he can still hang his hat on one of his most important talents.

Inflated stats... well... if his stats were easily attainable ... more people would be doing it. One of the things i've also heard is that he actually played a lot into system... and took back seats to let others take advantage of matchups in some of those cases. So... yes... especially when you take only 4 shots in a game.... and you miss or make 1 extra shot there is a huge difference in percentages. And if you want to look specifically at against NBA draft talent (C)... he was not that bad

Tournament

Arkansas (Jaylin Willliams) - 11pnt 14 reb 2 blk 5/9 FGa 1-3 3pa
Memphis (Duren) - 9pnt 9 reb 4 blk 4/7 FGa 0-3 3pa
Duke (Mark Williams) - 16 pnts 7 reb 3 blk 8/13 FGa 0/3 3pa

Yup... 3pa ... wasn't the greatest... but everything else looks pretty legit from the 2 pointer... and these are against players that are considered physically impressive in comparison to chet. So... i think it's hard to just say... he does not play well against better talent.

Plus to start off his career... he probably won't be playing against C's... and let alone the handful of C's that are imposing on ANYONE in the league.... Jokic and Embiid.

WCJ is 270lb if no one noticed.

Remember... this team was tops in defense for a portion of the year with WCJ and Mo... and though i love mo... his BBIQ and effort is now where near what Chet provides.

[tiderulz]

I would say he has more questions then just weight. His stats against ranked opponents was not good. He struggled against bigger centers. That calls into question how inflated are his stats because of the conference he played in and the competition that he played against.

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Good point. and that to me mean that he can still hang his hat on one of his most important talents.

Inflated stats... well... if his stats were easily attainable ... more people would be doing it. One of the things i've also heard is that he actually played a lot into system... and took back seats to let others take advantage of matchups in some of those cases. So... yes... especially when you take only 4 shots in a game.... and you miss or make 1 extra shot there is a huge difference in percentages. And if you want to look specifically at against NBA draft talent (C)... he was not that bad

Tournament

Arkansas (Jaylin Willliams) - 11pnt 14 reb 2 blk 5/9 FGa 1-3 3pa
Memphis (Duren) - 9pnt 9 reb 4 blk 4/7 FGa 0-3 3pa
Duke (Mark Williams) - 16 pnts 7 reb 3 blk 8/13 FGa 0/3 3pa

Yup... 3pa ... wasn't the greatest... but everything else looks pretty legit from the 2 pointer... and these are against players that are considered physically impressive in comparison to chet. So... i think it's hard to just say... he does not play well against better talent.

Plus to start off his career... he probably won't be playing against C's... and let alone the handful of C's that are imposing on ANYONE in the league.... Jokic and Embiid.

WCJ is 270lb if no one noticed.

Remember... this team was tops in defense for a portion of the year with WCJ and Mo... and though i love mo... his BBIQ and effort is now where near what Chet provides.

what it points out that could be an issue. with his battling NBA caliber big men, it saps his strength which is affecting his 3 point shot.

[Bigmagicfan82]

As much as I appreciate the idea that you want to draft a player with an elite skill set, I just think the the #1 pick should be an all-or-nothing pick. Orlando should be swinging for the generational rare elite talent that can’t be compared to anyone outright. People vying for Jabari should have wanted the #2 or #3.

Orlando already has a bunch of one way B+ guys that aren’t primary options and franchise cornerstones. Is everyone 100% sure Jabari is more than that? The gamble is whether or not Chet is that player moreso than Jabari. That answer isn’t going to come from college stats.

I personally don’t think bigs can be THAT player in todays nba. I’m just coming around to the idea that Chet has the better mentality, upside, and overall game compared to Smith. Worst case is Orlando misses on smith and finds another stretch 4 that can hit 3’s at a high clip. So what? There’s no Holmgren out there that replaces his weird two-way skill set. Orlando needs to swing for the fences if they think Chet has the highest upside and more diverse play style.

I’m ok with either Jabari or Chet. I just think that Chet is the kind of player you will regret taking more than Jabari if he pans out. Jabari doesn’t seem like a primary option with all the information we have.

I get it and I agree with you … to a degree.

If Chet hits, he could be what? KG - KD hybrid? That’s probably a bad comp but how do you build a profile for someone so rare and special when they reach their potential? However, if he busts it will be equally spectacular in the legendary status (Darko and Bennett territory).

Jabari meanwhile is a Rashard Lewis who plays defense. A bigger Kris Middleton? A better Kris Middleton? That’s not KG - KD but you’re getting a rock solid all-star for many years to come.

It’s hard. It’s very hard.

I think that is Smith's floor. If Smith's pans out I think he can be a 6'10 version of Jason Tatum. Which would be outstanding. I don't hate Chet but he has wayyyyy to many questions.

[Xatticus]

Let's do a thought exercise about Chet.

Pretend nobody on earth has ever heard of Chet. Now imagine somebody from the future shows up and shows a picture of Gonzaga Chet and tells everybody that this guy was a bust. How many people's first reaction would be 'No sh*t, just look at him'?

Every single NBA prospect in history has and will have a chance of being a bust, but I will never understand being so dead set on betting the farm on a guy whose reason for being a bust can be explained in a single image.

I just do not understand such confidence in a guy that has so many questions to answer.

That's a wonderful demonstration of prejudice.

Just for a moment consider all of the NBA greats that you would preclude from consideration from drafting simply because they do not look like what you want them to look like.

The goal isn't to draft someone that looks like a basketball player. The goal is to draft the best basketball player.

[yoyojw17]

as someone who has pointed that out before, i will say, it was only his offensive numbers that dipped vs ranked opponents. he was still a very good on defense.

Good point. and that to me mean that he can still hang his hat on one of his most important talents.

Inflated stats... well... if his stats were easily attainable ... more people would be doing it. One of the things i've also heard is that he actually played a lot into system... and took back seats to let others take advantage of matchups in some of those cases. So... yes... especially when you take only 4 shots in a game.... and you miss or make 1 extra shot there is a huge difference in percentages. And if you want to look specifically at against NBA draft talent (C)... he was not that bad

Tournament

Arkansas (Jaylin Willliams) - 11pnt 14 reb 2 blk 5/9 FGa 1-3 3pa
Memphis (Duren) - 9pnt 9 reb 4 blk 4/7 FGa 0-3 3pa
Duke (Mark Williams) - 16 pnts 7 reb 3 blk 8/13 FGa 0/3 3pa

Yup... 3pa ... wasn't the greatest... but everything else looks pretty legit from the 2 pointer... and these are against players that are considered physically impressive in comparison to chet. So... i think it's hard to just say... he does not play well against better talent.

Plus to start off his career... he probably won't be playing against C's... and let alone the handful of C's that are imposing on ANYONE in the league.... Jokic and Embiid.

WCJ is 270lb if no one noticed.

Remember... this team was tops in defense for a portion of the year with WCJ and Mo... and though i love mo... his BBIQ and effort is now where near what Chet provides.

what it points out that could be an issue. with his battling NBA caliber big men, it saps his strength which is affecting his 3 point shot.

possibly for sure.

but the mere fact that his defense was still elite... and scoring around the rim... I'm perfectly fine with sticking with his possible projection.

If i'm picking... i'm going chet and getting him a place above a mcdonald's. lol. But... all the talents i want out of him and his position are there... plus more.

The thing is... when a player of that height and length... 25 lb difference is still going to be str8 skinny. haha KD does not look 240lb once you add it across his entire body. If chet can make it to 225-230 lb within the next 2-3 seasons... he will be worth the pick.