Most surprising RAPM results

[Bad Gatorade]

Who are they players whose RAPM results you find hardest to reconcile?

When answering this thread, I'd like to bear in mind that RAPM is not a player ranking, and so things like, "this stat says Alex Caruso is better than ___!!! Therefore it sucks!!!" It's entire possible for role player X to have a higher RAPM than superstar Y, and we should all know this by now.

However...

Which results seem extraordinarily high/low, even considering the caveats of RAPM?

A couple of results I find surprising are just how low Kobe's DRAPM often seems in larger samples (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-R9RXLp6eYuRcptQIQVTBIkLrxvrTCfLh_WB2P-DBwE/edit#gid=0, for example). My impression was that his defensive effort was a bit temperamental (it felt better in, say, 2008-10 than the surrounding seasons) but in these large samples, sometimes his defensive metrics look horrible. I remember thinking his defence was overrated, but I thought he'd get better results than the James Hardens of the world.

Another one - in the latest 5 year RAPM sample from nbashotcharts.com, Steven Adams is 12th in offence (whilst literally changing teams twice and having huge roster turnover in OKC). I thought he'd be a positive offensive player, but I didn't think he'd be this high.

Another one is that Kevin Durant's RAPM seems highly inconsistent depending on what samples, time frames, even by who is running RAPM, but he seems to generally be a raw +/- machine, and obviously a great player. Perhaps there's a lot of collinearity because he so consistently seems to be on teams with other great offensive players?

Which results surprise you?

I repeat - this is not a thread to say RAPM sucks because your favourite superstar ranks beneath a really, really good role player. I'd prefer this thread be populated by those that employ RAPM in their analysis, or are at least interested in the process behind it, rather than RAPM detractors.

[falcolombardi]

Who are they players whose RAPM results you find hardest to reconcile?

When answering this thread, I'd like to bear in mind that RAPM is not a player ranking, and so things like, "this stat says Alex Caruso is better than ___!!! Therefore it sucks!!!" It's entire possible for role player X to have a higher RAPM than superstar Y, and we should all know this by now.

However...

Which results seem extraordinarily high/low, even considering the caveats of RAPM?

A couple of results I find surprising are just how low Kobe's DRAPM often seems in larger samples (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-R9RXLp6eYuRcptQIQVTBIkLrxvrTCfLh_WB2P-DBwE/edit#gid=0, for example). My impression was that his defensive effort was a bit temperamental (it felt better in, say, 2008-10 than the surrounding seasons) but in these large samples, sometimes his defensive metrics look horrible. I remember thinking his defence was overrated, but I thought he'd get better results than the James Hardens of the world.

Another one - in the latest 5 year RAPM sample from nbashotcharts.com, Steven Adams is 12th in offence (whilst literally changing teams twice and having huge roster turnover in OKC). I thought he'd be a positive offensive player, but I didn't think he'd be this high.

Another one is that Kevin Durant's RAPM seems highly inconsistent depending on what samples, time frames, even by who is running RAPM, but he seems to generally be a raw +/- machine, and obviously a great player. Perhaps there's a lot of collinearity because he so consistently seems to be on teams with other great offensive players?

Which results surprise you?

I repeat - this is not a thread to say RAPM sucks because your favourite superstar ranks beneath a really, really good role player. I'd prefer this thread be populated by those that employ RAPM in their analysis, or are at least interested in the process behind it, rather than RAPM detractors.

Adams is one of the few players to have 5 offensive rebounds a game seasons in the modern era and did it twice

He is the dennis rodman of offensive rebounding for this era and rodmsn also had impressive offensive rapm numbers

[giberish]

Kobe's defense isn't really a surprise. Even during his early years when he supposedly deserved his defensive accolades, he was a poor off-ball defender who frequently gave limited defensive effort during the regular season (that was the main way he stepped up his game in the playoffs - better defensive effort). He generally rated near league-average on D during his extended prime, but if the sample includes his very early years and/or his last few years when he was worse on D then it makes sense.

Adams does surprise me. Especially with the NO season where he was quite ineffective as part of the sample (though I think it was more of a defensive disaster where everyone was concerned about his offensive fit with Zion).

[LAL1947]

5-year RAPM sample as of June 2022 ranks Patrick Beverly higher than Anthony Davis, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker and Domantas Sabonis.

[Jaivl]

5-year RAPM sample as of June 20200 ranks Patrick Beverly higher than Anthony Davis, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker and Domantas Sabonis.

When answering this thread, I'd like to bear in mind that RAPM is not a player ranking, and so things like, "this stat says Alex Caruso is better than ___!!! Therefore it sucks!!!" It's entire possible for role player X to have a higher RAPM than superstar Y, and we should all know this by now.

Nice.

I've always been kind of surprised by how good Holiday's DRAPM looked in past years, even when he was a primarily offensive star in Philly.

[70sFan]

I'm surprised how good Sabonis looks defensively by that metrics. I always felt he was impactful defender within limited role, but this puts his defense to another perspective. Yao Ming having negative ORAPM also is a bit surprising, though maybe it's caused by data sample.

[Colbinii]

5-year RAPM sample as of June 2022 ranks Patrick Beverly higher than Anthony Davis, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker and Domantas Sabonis.

To be fair to Beverley, he has had a monster impact every stop of his career. His teams are, on average, 4-5 points/100 better with him on than off while over the past 5 seasons his teams outscore opponents a whopping 6 points/100 when he is on the court.

He is a super impact player in a low minute situation (Only 6.1k minutes over the 5-year sample).

There has only been one instance where his team is better without him than him with (2015).

[jasonxxx102]

Not surprised at all by Kobe's low ranking. His actual defense was much worse than the perception and accolades seem to show.

[Morb]

Ye, and Bruce Bowen sucks on defense?

Sent from my Nokia 5.1 Plus using RealGM mobile app

[tsherkin]

I'm surprised how good Sabonis looks defensively by that metrics. I always felt he was impactful defender within limited role, but this puts his defense to another perspective. Yao Ming having negative ORAPM also is a bit surprising, though maybe it's caused by data sample.

That turnover rate, though, you know? Decent but not incredible offensive rebounding coupled to unimpressive passing with a chunk of turnovers for teams that were average to awful on offense outside of his 5-game finale in 2011. They barely missed a beat without him in 2010, offensively speaking (although that's not fair, due to significant roster turnover).

Hard to tell, though. He was certainly an efficient scorer, but what he contributed to team offensive value can't have been that awesome. It was mostly "throw it into Yao for a quick shot of one flavor or another" and not a lot of anything else happening when he got the ball, so it shouldn't surprise THAT much that he doesn't look amazing in terms of team efficacy. Outside of 06 and 07, he has a < 2.0 OBPM (b-ref). Good WOWYR, rocked a couple of >= +5 AuPM seasons, something like 1.5 ScoreVal at his peak.

But yeah, seeing a negative ORAPM and a very heartily-positive DRAPM was not what I expected from Yao, particularly since ElGee has him at like 2 - 3.6 scaled APM and 1.3 - 1.9 OBPM.

[Dutchball97]

Who are they players whose RAPM results you find hardest to reconcile?

When answering this thread, I'd like to bear in mind that RAPM is not a player ranking, and so things like, "this stat says Alex Caruso is better than ___!!! Therefore it sucks!!!" It's entire possible for role player X to have a higher RAPM than superstar Y, and we should all know this by now.

However...

Which results seem extraordinarily high/low, even considering the caveats of RAPM?

A couple of results I find surprising are just how low Kobe's DRAPM often seems in larger samples (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-R9RXLp6eYuRcptQIQVTBIkLrxvrTCfLh_WB2P-DBwE/edit#gid=0, for example). My impression was that his defensive effort was a bit temperamental (it felt better in, say, 2008-10 than the surrounding seasons) but in these large samples, sometimes his defensive metrics look horrible. I remember thinking his defence was overrated, but I thought he'd get better results than the James Hardens of the world.

Another one - in the latest 5 year RAPM sample from nbashotcharts.com, Steven Adams is 12th in offence (whilst literally changing teams twice and having huge roster turnover in OKC). I thought he'd be a positive offensive player, but I didn't think he'd be this high.

Another one is that Kevin Durant's RAPM seems highly inconsistent depending on what samples, time frames, even by who is running RAPM, but he seems to generally be a raw +/- machine, and obviously a great player. Perhaps there's a lot of collinearity because he so consistently seems to be on teams with other great offensive players?

Which results surprise you?

I repeat - this is not a thread to say RAPM sucks because your favourite superstar ranks beneath a really, really good role player. I'd prefer this thread be populated by those that employ RAPM in their analysis, or are at least interested in the process behind it, rather than RAPM detractors.

Adams is one of the few players to have 5 offensive rebounds a game seasons in the modern era and did it twice

He is the dennis rodman of offensive rebounding for this era and rodmsn also had impressive offensive rapm numbers

Maybe it's also helped by Adams being a good screener? I don't have exact numbers but he's generally regarded as being proficient at setting screens, which doesn't show up in the boxscore but is nontheless a valuable skill.

[70sFan]

Who are they players whose RAPM results you find hardest to reconcile?

When answering this thread, I'd like to bear in mind that RAPM is not a player ranking, and so things like, "this stat says Alex Caruso is better than ___!!! Therefore it sucks!!!" It's entire possible for role player X to have a higher RAPM than superstar Y, and we should all know this by now.

However...

Which results seem extraordinarily high/low, even considering the caveats of RAPM?

A couple of results I find surprising are just how low Kobe's DRAPM often seems in larger samples (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-R9RXLp6eYuRcptQIQVTBIkLrxvrTCfLh_WB2P-DBwE/edit#gid=0, for example). My impression was that his defensive effort was a bit temperamental (it felt better in, say, 2008-10 than the surrounding seasons) but in these large samples, sometimes his defensive metrics look horrible. I remember thinking his defence was overrated, but I thought he'd get better results than the James Hardens of the world.

Another one - in the latest 5 year RAPM sample from nbashotcharts.com, Steven Adams is 12th in offence (whilst literally changing teams twice and having huge roster turnover in OKC). I thought he'd be a positive offensive player, but I didn't think he'd be this high.

Another one is that Kevin Durant's RAPM seems highly inconsistent depending on what samples, time frames, even by who is running RAPM, but he seems to generally be a raw +/- machine, and obviously a great player. Perhaps there's a lot of collinearity because he so consistently seems to be on teams with other great offensive players?

Which results surprise you?

I repeat - this is not a thread to say RAPM sucks because your favourite superstar ranks beneath a really, really good role player. I'd prefer this thread be populated by those that employ RAPM in their analysis, or are at least interested in the process behind it, rather than RAPM detractors.

Adams is one of the few players to have 5 offensive rebounds a game seasons in the modern era and did it twice

He is the dennis rodman of offensive rebounding for this era and rodmsn also had impressive offensive rapm numbers

Maybe it's also helped by Adams being a good screener? I don't have exact numbers but he's generally regarded as being proficient at setting screens, which doesn't show up in the boxscore but is nontheless a valuable skill.

Adams reminds me a lot of Wes Unseld with the way he plays. He's not as good passer as Unseld, but he's still very good and his screen setting ability is a real deal.

[sp6r=underrated]

The biggest one by far is the Malone-Stockton-Sloan era Jazz. I just can't intellectually square it at all.

1. If the data is right that Stockton looks like a top 10 player all time, everyone was misallocating credit to Malone that belonged to Stockton. That can happen but is it really tenable that the Jazz reached their highest peak by far when he was downgraded in minutes/role and that everyone missed what was happening. People noticed that Nash was the driving force behind Amar'e.
2. Maybe Sloan was the problem. But how do you explain the Jazz doing so well after Malone and Stockton leaving?
3. Maybe everyone is as good as their reps: Malone, Stockton, Sloan. The Jazz performance can be explained by Stockton-Malone's peak being totally misaligned and the supporting cast getting way better as the 90s moves along. But that seems too cute by half.

I just have a hard time understanding it and we are not talking about an insignificant amount of time. These guys played together for a decade and a half

[falcolombardi]

The biggest one by far is the Malone-Stockton-Sloan era Jazz. I just can't intellectually square it at all.

1. If the data is right that Stockton looks like a top 10 player all time, everyone was misallocating credit to Malone that belonged to Stockton. That can happen but is it really tenable that the Jazz reached their highest peak by far when he was downgraded in minutes/role and that everyone missed what was happening. People noticed that Nash was the driving force behind Amar'e.
2. Maybe Sloan was the problem. But how do you explain the Jazz doing so well after Malone and Stockton leaving?
3. Maybe everyone is as good as their reps: Malone, Stockton, Sloan. The Jazz performance can be explained by Stockton-Malone's peak being totally misaligned and the supporting cast getting way better as the 90s moves along. But that seems too cute by half.

I just have a hard time understanding it and we are not talking about an insignificant amount of time. These guys played together for a decade and a half

There is a lot of players whose raw impact metrics profiles are way better than the consensus on them, even the pc board consensus

Paul, stockton, ginobili, draymond,etc

[sp6r=underrated]

The biggest one by far is the Malone-Stockton-Sloan era Jazz. I just can't intellectually square it at all.

1. If the data is right that Stockton looks like a top 10 player all time, everyone was misallocating credit to Malone that belonged to Stockton. That can happen but is it really tenable that the Jazz reached their highest peak by far when he was downgraded in minutes/role and that everyone missed what was happening. People noticed that Nash was the driving force behind Amar'e.
2. Maybe Sloan was the problem. But how do you explain the Jazz doing so well after Malone and Stockton leaving?
3. Maybe everyone is as good as their reps: Malone, Stockton, Sloan. The Jazz performance can be explained by Stockton-Malone's peak being totally misaligned and the supporting cast getting way better as the 90s moves along. But that seems too cute by half.

I just have a hard time understanding it and we are not talking about an insignificant amount of time. These guys played together for a decade and a half

There is a lot of players whose raw impact metrics profiles are way better than the consensus on them, even the pc board consensus

Paul, stockton, ginobili, draymond,etc

At least with Paul, Manu, Dray you can point to a clear relationship between expanded role ==> greater team success. And each of those guys has an issue. Manu is durability. His body gives out so there is a natural downgrade. Paul's body wears out and there are questions about his long-term impact on team chemistry. But in the cases of all three their team tends to get better when they take on a bigger role despite their flaws. Not saying you have to agree with the on/off data (I think on/off data is overused by some) or board consensus (I don't always agree with the consensus) but the cases you highlighted seem different than what is happening with Stockton.

Stockton looks like he has a massive impact on the team. But the team gets considerably better as his importance fades on the roster (minutes, role). And everyone seemed to think at the time the other guy was better. Than both of those guys leave and everyone predicts them to collapse and they very quickly recover.

I don't have an answer to it but it is fascinating.

If Malone, Stockton, Sloan are all as great as their reps why the Jazz achieve so little during their very long primes. Given their longevity and health you expect a dynasty, instead they didn't come close.
If Sloan was overrated, how did the Jazz quickly turn things around so fast after they left? Maybe they got a massive influx of talent (AK47, Deron, Boozer, Milsap) but that paints a picture of him being quite good at talent development.
If Malone was overrated, why did the Jazz reach their clear peak (and this isn't arguable) when he was at his most prominent. Maybe the supporting cast really did get massively better.
If Stockton was overrated how do we explain the on/off data and similar players looking so good. If he's as good as his stats indicate why was the offense so mediocre when he was prominent.

I don't have an answer for it, but I do know a good Coach, 2 ATGs who had extremely long & healthy primes should have achieved a more than what happened.

So I find them fascinating

[Doctor MJ]

First name that comes to mind is Baron Davis.

Davis is a guy with major tendencies toward low shooting efficiency with high shooting volume as a point guard. Between that, the way he bounced around from team to team without buzz, and his weight issues, it was easy to conclude that he had likely been overrated during his prime.

Now, as I say that, Davis did show clear signs of being able to raise his play in the playoffs by means of a clear way in which this happens: He put more energy into to getting to the cup rather than settling for jumpers. That was enough to believe that his playoff successes weren't just flukes, and that's no small thing, but the perception of his meh impact in the regular season baseline still cast something of a dim light on how impressive we should find anything he did.

And then I saw the RAPM (along with other such data), and ever since then I've generally looked at Davis as a guy whose impact I might not grasp that well. Certainly, he was strong and effective on defense, but the data seems to indicate that he's considerably more valuable offensively even when he's chucking than I'd expect.

[Doctor MJ]

The biggest one by far is the Malone-Stockton-Sloan era Jazz. I just can't intellectually square it at all.

1. If the data is right that Stockton looks like a top 10 player all time, everyone was misallocating credit to Malone that belonged to Stockton. That can happen but is it really tenable that the Jazz reached their highest peak by far when he was downgraded in minutes/role and that everyone missed what was happening. People noticed that Nash was the driving force behind Amar'e.
2. Maybe Sloan was the problem. But how do you explain the Jazz doing so well after Malone and Stockton leaving?
3. Maybe everyone is as good as their reps: Malone, Stockton, Sloan. The Jazz performance can be explained by Stockton-Malone's peak being totally misaligned and the supporting cast getting way better as the 90s moves along. But that seems too cute by half.

I just have a hard time understanding it and we are not talking about an insignificant amount of time. These guys played together for a decade and a half

Have you seen the data that goes back to '93-94? We only have the raw regular season +/- so that's what I'll use, but continue through until Stockton retires, in the order we got the data:

'02-03: Ostertag 289, Harpring 264, Stockton 243, Cheaney 198, Malone 173
'01-02: Kirilenko 348, Russell 174, Stockton 166, Padgett 66, Ostertag 64, Malone 51
'00-01: Stockton 562, Malone 380
'99-00: Russell 521, Stockton 516, Malone 481
'98-99: Malone 354, Hornacek 334, Ostertag 319, Russell 312, Stockton 303
'97-98: Malone 585, Stockton 498, Hornacek 464
'96-97: Hornacek 775, Malone 767, Russell 681, Stockton 658
'95-96: Stockton 673, Malone 659, Hornacek 501
'94-95: Malone 690, Stockton 621, Hornacek 573
'93-94: Malone 513, Stockton 396, Spencer 249

Back when we first saw that later data, which consistently favors Stockton over Malone, the question was whether that meant that:

a) Stockton was more valuable than Malone all along, and it's just that pretty much everyone who saw them play together for years was wrong in their assessment that Malone was the one who should be the MVP candidate.

or

b) Stockton's conservative style of play, along with conservation of minutes, allowed his impact to decay more gracefully than a volume scorer like Malone.

or

c) y'know, noise.

To me, the data that's come out since has painted a pretty clear picture that (b) is more likely than (a).

While new older data will eventually come to our attention, and that data could tell a very different story, for now, I don't actually see Stockton's +/- data as evidence that he should be seen as a much greater player than he's generally categorized as. All-time great, but not his team's MVP, and generally seen as someone more in that Top 5-10 range in the league rather than something more.

[colts18]

The biggest one by far is the Malone-Stockton-Sloan era Jazz. I just can't intellectually square it at all.

1. If the data is right that Stockton looks like a top 10 player all time, everyone was misallocating credit to Malone that belonged to Stockton. That can happen but is it really tenable that the Jazz reached their highest peak by far when he was downgraded in minutes/role and that everyone missed what was happening. People noticed that Nash was the driving force behind Amar'e.
2. Maybe Sloan was the problem. But how do you explain the Jazz doing so well after Malone and Stockton leaving?
3. Maybe everyone is as good as their reps: Malone, Stockton, Sloan. The Jazz performance can be explained by Stockton-Malone's peak being totally misaligned and the supporting cast getting way better as the 90s moves along. But that seems too cute by half.

I just have a hard time understanding it and we are not talking about an insignificant amount of time. These guys played together for a decade and a half

Why didn't the Jazz win a title? Answer: Bad Luck. Answer #2: Bad Supporting Casts. Answer #3: Extremely tough opposition in the West.

The Jazz lost 5 Series deciding Game 5/7's by the slimmest of margins. If they get the 1996 Game 7 victory, they are looked as a different team.

1990 Game 5 vs Suns: Lose by 2 on a Kevin Johnson GW with 1 second
1993 Game 5 vs Sonics: Lose by 8
1995 Game 5 vs Rockets: Lose by 4 after leading by 7 entering the 4th
1996 Game 7 vs Sonics: Lose by 4
2001 Game 5 vs Mavs: Lose by 1 after leading by 14 entering the 4th

#2 reason: The competition was tough

Spoiler:

Part 2 on why the Jazz didn't win a title.

Long story short: the competition was stiff. This is how the Jazz fared in the playoffs in the 90s.

In 1990, they lost to Phoenix.
Suns 54-28, 7.08 SRS (1st)

If they beat Phoenix, they would have to beat the following teams to win a title:
Showtime Lakers- 63-19, 6.74 SRS (2nd)
Blazers- 59-23, 6.48 SRS (3rd)
Bad Boys Pistons- 59-23, 5.48 SRS (4th)

No one ever beat the top 4 teams in the league to win a title.

1991:
Beat Suns 55-27, 6.49 SRS (4th)
Lose to Blazers 63-19, 8.41 SRS (2nd)

Lakers 58-24, 6.73 SRS (3rd)
Bulls 61-21, 8.57 SRS (1st)

Top 4 teams again.

1992:
Beat Clippers 45-37, 1.10 SRS
Beat Sonics 47-35, 1.86 SRS (11th)
Lose to Blazers 57-25, 6.94 SRS (2nd)

Bulls 67-15, 10.07 SRS (1st)

Beat 2 unimpressive teams before losing to the 2nd best team. If they won that, they would have to face a really tough Bulls team

1993:
Lose to Sonics 55-27, 6.66 (1st)

Rockets 55-27, 3.57 SRS (6th)
Suns 62-20, 6.27 SRS (3rd)
Bulls 57-25, 6.19 SRS (4th)

They lose to the best team in the league. They would still need to beat 4 55+ win teams if they wanted to win a title. No one has ever done that except Hakeem

1994:
Beat Spurs 55-27, 5.05 SRS (3rd)
Beat Nuggets 42-40, 1.54 SRS (16th)
Lose to Rockets 58-24, 4.19 SRS (6th)

Knicks 57-25, 6.48 SRS (2nd)

The Jazz beat a really good Spurs team in the 1st round. They catch a lucky break when the Nuggets upset the 63 win Sonics. They end up losing to the championship Rockets. If they win that they would have a battle vs the Pat Riley Knicks.

1995
Lose to Rockets 47-35, 2.32 SRS (11th)

Suns 59-23, 3.86 SRS (6th)
Spurs 62-20, 5.90 SRS (4th)
Magic 57-25 6.44 SRS (3rd)

They lose to a Rockets team that was mediocre in the regular. Their regular season numbers are deceiving as they upped their game in the postseason. Even if they beat the Rockets, they would need to beat 3 teams averaging 60 wins to win a title. Props to Hakeem for winning the toughest championship in history.

1996
Beat Blazers 44-38 2.21 SRS (11th)
Beat Spurs 59-23, 5.98 SRS (4th)
Lose to Sonics 64-18, 7.40 SRS (2nd)

Bulls 72-10, 11.80 SRS (1st)

The Jazz performed as expected. They beat a really good David Robinson Spurs team. Then they lost in 7 to the Sonics. If they won, they would had to face the best team in history.

1997:
Beat the Clippers 36-46, -2.66 SRS (20th)
Beat the Lakers 56-26, 3.66 SRS (8th)
Beat the Rockets 57-25, 3.85 SRS (7th)
Lose to the Bulls 69-13, 10.70 SRS (1st)

The Jazz handled their business in the Western conference playoffs. They had an 11-3 record before facing the legendary Chicago Bulls. The Jazz lost in 6 games in a series where they were only outscored by a mere 4 points. They did just as well as they were expected to do.

1998:
Beat the Rockets 41-41, -1.23 SRS (19th)
Beat the Spurs 56-26, 3.30 SRS (9th)
Beat the Lakers 61-21, 6.88 SRS (2nd)
Lose to the Bulls 62-20, 7.24 SRS (1st)

The Jazz beat the 2nd best team in the playoffs. Then they lost to the best team, the Jordan Bulls in another close series

1999:
Beat the Kings 27-23, -0.89 SRS (17th)
Lose to the Blazers 35-15, 5.67 SRS (2nd)

Spurs 37-13, 7.12 SRS (1st)
Knicks 27-23, 1.45 SRS (13th)

They lose to the 2nd best team in the league. Even if they win, they would have go through the Twin Towers Duncan/Robinson Spurs. If they happened to make it to the finals, they would have an easy opponent in the 8 seed Knicks.

Recap:
-The Jazz lost to 10 opponents who averaged 59 wins and a 6.66 SRS (better than the 2020 Lakers).
-If the Jazz beat their opponent during the 8 years they lost before the finals, they would have face an average 2 more teams each year with an average record of 60-22, 6.43 SRS (same SRS as the 2019 Warriors).

How do you expect them to beat teams as good as the championship LeBron Lakers, then beat a team as good as the 2019 Warriors in the WCF, then beat another team as good as the KD/Curry Warriors in the finals? That's a near impossible task.

Reason #3: Their supporting cast was bad

Spoiler:

Why did the Jazz not win a title? If you look at the drafting history of the Utah Jazz you will find the aswer. Their drafting track record was so bad that I had to write a long post pointing out the incompetence of the Jazz. I analyzed Utah's draft record from the time they draft they drafted Karl Malone in 1985 to 2000. I will post these players VORP's from 1987-2001, the last relevant season of Stockton/Malone. What did they contribute to the Jazz? You will be surprised just how bad it was.

1986
Dell Curry- 15th Pick

Wait, Dell Curry played for the Jazz? You might not remember that. It's ok but he had a brief one-year stint as a rookie with the Jazz before being traded. Curry, 40% career 3 point shooter, would have been the perfect fit with Malone/Stockton. He got traded for Darryl Dawkins and Melvin Turpin. Dawkins is a big name and Turpin was the 6th pick a few years earlier. That sounds like a great haul until you look at closer. Dawkins played just 4 games with the Jazz before being traded to the Bad Boys Pistons. He played a total of 16 games with the Pistons before his NBA career ended. Turpin was an all-time bust. He played 1 year with the Jazz (-1.6 BPM, 14 PER) and one more season with the Bullets before his career ended.

Curry's VORP with the Jazz: -0.2
Dawkins/Turpin VORP: 0.0
Verdict: The Jazz got nothing out of that pick

1987
Jose Ortiz- 15th pick

Who? He played just 2 years with the Jazz (-6.4 BPM, 9 PER) before his career was over. A huge bust

VORP with the Jazz: -0.4


1988
Eric Leckner-17th pick

Leckner was an awful player. He was traded after 2 years (-4.5 BPM, 11 PER with Jazz) in the Jeff Malone trade. His career -5.3 BPM is the 3rd worst in history (min. 5,000 MP). #2 worst, Greg Foster, was a starter during the Jazz finals years.

VORP with the Jazz: -1.0 VORP
Jeff Malone VORP: -0.6 VORP

1989
Blue Edwards- 21st pick

Finally, our first player who started. He plays 3 years for the Jazz as their starting Small Forward averaging 10-7-2. He has an 11 PER, -1.4 BPM in that span. He is traded alongside for Eric Murdock and a 1st round pick for Jay Humphries and Larry Krystowiak. I will get to that trade later.

VORP with the Jazz: 0.9 (Positive!)

1990
No 1st round pick

1991
Eric Murdock

A good player. A career 2.0 BPM and 17 PER. In his 3rd season he averaged 15-7 with 2.4 steals and a 4.0 BPM, 17th in the league. Great player right? The only problem is NONE of that happened with the Jazz. He plays 1 non-descript season as a backup before being traded to Milwaukee in the trade mentioned above. Krystowiak plays 1 season (-2.5 BPM) with the Jazz. Humphries plays 3 seasons (-2.3 BPM) with the Jazz before being traded to Boston. He plays 6 games in Boston before his career is over.

Murdock's VORP: 0.2
Krystowiak/Humphries VORP: -0.5

1992
No 1st round pick

No pick because of the trade mentioned above. To recap, the Jazz traded 3 1st round picks (Edwards, Murdock, and 92 pick) for nothing. This what the Jazz GM said about the trade:

"I think this is another step to take advantage of the abilities of (John Stockton and Karl Malone) in their prime," said General Manager Tim Howells. "We have two or three years to get some things done. And it's a move, hopefully, to prolong their careers."

Little does he know that Stockton/Malone would last another decade and the players he traded for were useless parts.


1993
Luther Wright- 18th pick

Plays 15 games his rookie year. Finishes the season with 19 Total points, 10 rebounds, 0 assists, 6 turnovers, on 35 FG%. His PER is -0.4. How do you have a negative PER? He was so bad that the Jazz cut him after the season and he never played in the NBA again.

VORP: -0.2

1994
No First round pick

If you are keeping count that is 9 straight drafts without a contribution to the Jazz

1995
Greg Ostertag-28th pick

The first player the Jazz draft that is "decent". He is a starter on the 97 Jazz. In 98, he goes to the bench for Adam keefe. A career 13 PER and -0.6 BPM.

VORP from 95-01: 3.1

1996
Martin Müürsepp- 25th pick

Who? He gets traded to Miami on draft night for a 2000 1st round pick. Lasts only 2 seasons in the NBA

VORP: 0 (never played for the Jazz)

1997
Jacque Vaughn- 27th pick

Remember that list I mentioned of the worst players post merger? His career -3.1 BPM is 61st worst. He plays 4 years with the Jazz as the 3rd string PG.

VORP: -0.7

1998
Nazr Muhammed-28th pick

Traded on draft night for a 1999 1st round pick. The Jazz could have used him.

VORP: 0

1999:
Quincy Lewis- 19th pick

Picked up in the Nazr Muhammed trade. He plays 3 awful years in Utah before leaving.

VORP in 2000 and 2001: -1.0

1999:
Andrei Kirilenko-24th pick

NICE! A great draft pick. Only one problem. He stays in Europe for 2 more years and doesn't come into the NBA until 2002 when Stockton and Malone are 39 and 38 years old. He doesn't have his all-star season until AFTER Stockton/Malone leave.

VORP: 0

1999:
Scott Padgett- 28th pick

Another bench player who doesn't have much of a career. He has a -3.8 BPM, 10 PER in the 2000 and 2001 season. Another negative contribution

VORP in 2000-01: -0.3

2000:
DeShawn Stevenson-23rd pick

He has a long career but doesn't contribute much to the Stockton/Malone Jazz. He has a -7.7 BPM, 4 PER in his rookie year.

VORP in 2001: -0.4


These 11 1st round picks contributed a total of 0.0 VORP to the Jazz. The players who they were traded for contributed even less for the Jazz, -1.1 VORP. For 15 years of drafting, they have a NEGATIVE VORP to show for their 1st round picks. That's Sacramento Kings level of drafting bad. They don't have much to show for their 2nd round picks either. They got 3 years of Shandon Anderson on the bench and they got Bryon Russell, a solid role player (1.0 BPM, 10 VORP). Nothing else after that.

Free agency:

Did the Jazz sign a relevant free agent during Stockton/Malone's career? No. The best free agent they signed up to 1995 was 34 years old Tom Chambers. They did sign Tim Legler who only played 3 games with the Jazz before being waived. He led the NBA in 3 point shooting (52%) a few years later so he could have been a contributor the Jazz. After that, they signed a few bench pieces like 34-year-old Antoine Carr, Greg "2nd worst BPM ever" Foster, Howard Eisley.

Trades:

Did the Jazz make any trades that would help out their squad? None until the Hornacek trade.

The Jazz had Adrian Dantley in 1986 coming off a 30 PPG season. They traded him and did not receive much in return (4.9 BPM).

Dantley for

Kelly Tripucka (averages 9.1 PPG in Utah, -0.7 BPM, 0.9 VORP)
Kent Benson (0.0 VORP in 1 season with Jazz)

Both players do absolutely nothing in Utah. Tripucka goes from 20 PPG in Detroit to 9 PPG in Utah then leaves Utah and goes back to 22 PPG? Benson is traded in the Curry trade mentioned above.

Tripucka gets traded for

Mike Brown (5 seasons in Utah averaging 6-5. -3.1 BPM, -2.0 VORP)

Mike Brown gets traded for

Felton Spencer (-3.5 BPM, -1.7 VORP)

Felton Spencer plays just 19 MPG on the 19 win expansion TWolves. He goes to Utah and that jumps up 28 MPG (30 MPG in the playoffs). Spencer is the starter for Utah for 3 years. You remember the list I mentioned earlier about the worst BPM's since the merger? Spencer is featured prominently on that list. He has the 16th worst career BPM. And this guy was a starter for the Jazz for 3 years of the Stockton/Malone/Hornacek prime lol. Spencer gets traded for 2 players who don't play for the Jazz and the pick that ends up being Kirilenko, too bad he came in late for Stockton/Malone.

If you are keeping score at home, that's a -2.8 VORP for the players that the Jazz received for all-star Adrian Dantley. They could have used him in the 1988-1990 seasons.

I mentioned the Jeff Malone trade earlier. The Jazz traded their starting SG, Bob Hansen, 1st round pick Eric Leckner, and a 1990 1st round pick for Jeff Malone. Jeff Malone has a negative BPM every season for the Jazz.

Thurl Bailey for Tyrone Corbin

Bailey had a solid run for the Jazz in the 80's. Corbin ends up playing 3 years for the Jazz averaging 10-6-2, 13 PER, 0.2 BPM, 3.6 VORP.

Tyrone Corbin gets traded for Adam Keefe

Adam Keefe plays 6 years in Utah mostly as a backup. He averages 5-4, 13 PER, -0.6 BPM, 2.6 VORP.

Jeff Malone and 1st round pick for Jeff Hornacek

Finally a great move for Utah. Hornacek plays 7 years in Utah averaging 14 PPG, 3.6 BPM, 20.7 VORP. It's no coincidence that the Jazz take a leap to the next level with Hornacek.


Other relevant moves:

In 1991, the Jazz signed undrafted free agent David Benoit. He averages 11-7 in college at Alabama. Can't even finish on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team All-SEC. He goes undrafted and plays 1 year Europe before the Jazz sign him. He starts 2 games as a rookie, but somehow is thrusted into the starting lineup in the playoffs. He plays 5 years with the Jazz, all of them as a playoff starter, averaging 12 PER, -0.8 BPM, 0.4 VORP. In the playoffs he has a 49 TS%, 10 PER, -1.6 BPM.

Remember how I said Felton Spencer was the Jazz 3 year starter from 94-96 and was the 16th worst player? Well, in 1995, Spencer got injured mid season. You would think that's a good thing. Wrong. Somehow the Jazz got even worse. The Jazz signed James Donaldson as his replacement. In 1993, Donaldson played just 6 games as a 35 year old. The next season he plays in Europe. Then the next year the Jazz sign 37 year old James Donaldson midseason. He averages 2.6 PPG, 2.5 Reb, 8 PER, -1.5 BPM playing 40 games as the starter. In the playoffs he averages 2.8 PPG, 1.8 Reb, 9 PER, -0.5 BPM in 15 MPG as the starter playing against Hakeem Olajuwon. After that, he never played another game in the NBA.

This is an old analysis I did comparing Stockton/Malone's supporting cast from 88-94 to other great players. SPOILER: They compared awfully.


88-94 (Doesn't include Stockton/Malone):
# of players with 1+ VORP: 7
2+ VORP: 0
2+ BPM (Min. 1000 MP): 0 (best BPM is Mark Eaton 0.6)

90-96 Spurs (Robinson):
1+ VORP: 22
2+ VORP: 11
2+ BPM: 2

98-04 Lakers (Shaq and Kobe):
1+ VORP: 15
2+ VORP: 6
2+ BPM: 7

87-93 Bulls (MJ and Pippen):
1+ VORP: 9
2+ VORP: 4
2+ BPM: 2

80-86 Lakers (Magic and Kareem):
1+ VORP: 19
2+ VORP: 6
2+ BPM: 2


01-07 Spurs (Duncan):
1+ VORP: 37
2+ VORP: 13
2+ BPM: 20


The Jazz had 0 2+ VORP players in that span while the other franchises averaged 8 of them. The Jazz supporting cast was significantly behind the other teams.


Recap:
-The Jazz had a historically bad drafting run in the 15 years after Stockton/Malone
-They signed no free agents of significance because they were stuck in small market Utah. The best free agent they ever signed was 34 year old Tom Chambers
-Most of their trades sucked. They got negative trade value for All-star Adrian Dantley
-The Jazz made 1 good move during the Stockton/Malone era. The Jeff Hornacek trade. There is a reason why their best playoff runs happen from 1995-1999.
-The Jazz's playoff struggles from 1988-1994 can be explained by all of the above factors and the fact that their best supporting players during that run were Mark Eaton, Tyrone Corbin, and David Benoit.

I'll respond to the point later about who is to blame between Stockton/Malone/Sloan and the Jazz puzzling offensive ratings. Hint: He is 7' 4" and his last name rhymes Beaten.

[sp6r=underrated]

Why didn't the Jazz win a title? Answer: Bad Luck. Answer #2: Bad Supporting Casts. Answer #3: Extremely tough opposition in the West

Who said I was simply talking about winning a title? 7 years when ATGs are in the middle of their prime and they look like a fringe title contender at best save 1 season.

SRS Rank
1988: 9
1989: 7
1990: 5
1991: 8
1992: 3
1993: 10
1994: 7


It took them 7 years to even become a championship level squad based on RS data. The performance during the years below are fine and I agree the ball bounces their way slightly differently (better FT shooting in 97/refs not screwing up shot clock in 1998) they win a title
1995: 2
1996: 3
1997: 2
1998: 5
1999: 3

But on the whole taking 7 years to enter the championship level zone when you have ATGs, who are complimentary, never get hurt ever, with a good coach, is highly, highly unusual. I don't think I can find another similar example.

And if it was a bad supporting cast as you contend.
Why were the Jazz okay before Stockton/Malone started getting going (86/87)?
Why was management, which was fair stable in Utah, able to retool so quickly after they left?

Not saying it isn't impossible the Jazz 3-12 were just catasthrophically bad 3-12 from 88-94 but I'll need to see more.

[falcolombardi]

Why didn't the Jazz win a title? Answer: Bad Luck. Answer #2: Bad Supporting Casts. Answer #3: Extremely tough opposition in the West

Who said I was simply talking about winning a title? 7 years when ATGs are in the middle of their prime and they look like a fringe title contender at best save 1 season.

SRS Rank
1988: 9
1989: 7
1990: 5
1991: 8
1992: 3
1993: 10
1994: 7


It took them 7 years to even become a championship level squad based on RS data. The performance during the years below are fine and I agree the ball bounces their way slightly differently (better FT shooting in 97/refs not screwing up shot clock in 1998) they win a title
1995: 2
1996: 3
1997: 2
1998: 5
1999: 3

But on the whole taking 7 years to enter the championship level zone when you have ATGs, who are complimentary, never get hurt ever, with a good coach, is highly, highly unusual. I don't think I can find another similar example.

And if it was a bad supporting cast as you contend.
Why were the Jazz okay before Stockton/Malone started getting going (86/87)?
Why was management, which was fair stable in Utah, able to retool so quickly after they left?

Not saying it isn't impossible the Jazz 3-12 were just catasthrophically bad 3-12 from 88-94 but I'll need to see more.

From 1990 to 1995 they lose to most top team they face (90 suns, 92 blazers, 93 sonics, 94 and 95 rockets) and only beat the robinson spurs who are a bit overwhelmed by playoffs themselves eith their robinson absolute dependance. And the 91 suns

Against not spurs top teams they went 1-6 suggesting they were a level below the actual contenders

In 96 they make a big leap even if they still lost to a elite seattle team (than they outscored) is it a coincidence this was the year they got stock and malone good help?

From 96-98 the last grasps of their star duo primes + talented players alongside them they finally start beating strong teams like the 97 rockets

I cannot help but imagine that if they had hornacek earlier they may have gone for a ring in the earlier 90's during stockton and malone peaks