Bradley Beal - Part IV

[Rafael122]

At the end of the day its not our money, so I don't really care if we offer him the max or not lol. Folks get too much into players pockets. This was always going to happen, I care more about how Shep can adjust or will he adjust.

[lastemp3ror]

At the end of the day its not our money, so I don't really care if we offer him the max or not lol. Folks get too much into players pockets. This was always going to happen, I care more about how Shep can adjust or will he adjust.

The money aspect affects what the team could or couldn't do in the future. So there is a relevant reason why we care what Beal gets.

If we are ultimately going to say X decision doesn't or shouldn't affect me, then we shouldn't really care about anything the Wizards do. As almost all of the decisions, we discuss on these forums have a financial aspect to the team and the players involved in them (trades, draft picks, free agency moves).

[Rafael122]

At the end of the day its not our money, so I don't really care if we offer him the max or not lol. Folks get too much into players pockets. This was always going to happen, I care more about how Shep can adjust or will he adjust.

The money aspect affects what the team could or couldn't do in the future. So there is a relevant reason why we care what Beal gets.

If we are ultimately going to say X decision doesn't or shouldn't affect me, then we shouldn't really care about anything the Wizards do. As almost all of the decisions, we discuss on these forums have a financial aspect to the team and the players involved in them (trades, draft picks, free agency moves).

If a player wants to get his money, go get it. It's like I said, its up to Shep to adjust b/c this was always going to happen.

[nate33]

At the end of the day its not our money, so I don't really care if we offer him the max or not lol. Folks get too much into players pockets. This was always going to happen, I care more about how Shep can adjust or will he adjust.

His contract size dictates his trade value and the ability to move him. Not caring about what players makes is what results in the John Wall situation where we have to sacrifice assets just to get him off the books.

[BigA]

At the end of the day its not our money, so I don't really care if we offer him the max or not lol. Folks get too much into players pockets. This was always going to happen, I care more about how Shep can adjust or will he adjust.

His contract size dictates his trade value and the ability to move him. Not caring about what players makes is what results in the John Wall situation where we have to sacrifice assets just to get him off the books.

And that's what's going to happen this time as well. I'm expecting perhaps the worst contract in the NBA the day it's signed. Assets will need to be attached to move it. Maybe in 2 years or less. Hope I'm wrong, but I've seen this movie too many times.

[closg00]

Woj reports that the Suns are now looking to do a sign-and-trade deal for Ayton as opposed to letting him walk away as a free agent: “They’re very motivated to find a sign-and-trade, get some assets back for him,” Woj said. “They do not value Deandre Ayton at a max contract.”

Refreshing and honest. Ted to Brad, "How much do you want"?

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Mayo says that Brad is genuinely undecided and that Tatum's run to the NBA Finals... and seeing Otto/GP2/Chiozza win with GSW has been eye opening.

[80sballboy]

Other than money, Brad's wife is pregnant with their third child. Not sure they want to move three young kids, but I guess it's possible. Did he tell Tommy and that's why they took Davis or is this just another attention ploy? Or is he pissed that the team did very little in the draft to help the team during the draft and that he doesn't want to play point guard even if he's going to make the super-max?

Read on Twitter

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[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Other than money, Brad's wife is pregnant with their third child. Not sure they want to move three young kids, but I guess it's possible. Did he tell Tommy and that's why they took Davis or is this just another attention ploy? Or is he pissed that the team did very little in the draft to help the team during the draft and that he doesn't want to play point guard even if he's going to make the super-max?

Read on Twitter

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Just Beal passive aggressively threatening the organization to cater to him more through his mouth piece. Beal wants us to sell the farm to build around him, an inadequate player to make that investment. There's no ifs, ands, or butts. I hope Mayo is right, I'm so tired of this dance. Again don't even care if we get compensation at this point, just want to be done with this marriage of convenience. No hard feelings, just time for the franchise and him to part ways.

[Halcyon]

I feel like Beal just wants to be officially wooed by other front offices to feel the love, and turn around to re-sign a max deal.

[Tyrone Messby]

I feel like Beal just wants to be officially wooed by other front offices to feel the love, and turn around to re-sign a max deal.

Exactly. He's a woman. Please LET him walk. This is the type of run around LeBron would do and Beal isn't 1/5th the talent he is.

[MagicBagley18]

As someone who has some interest in what brad does I think many of you have nailed it on the head....beal loves this attention and Mayo knows this is probably the most attention he’s had on him in regards to a somewhat big nba story. That headline will get clicks, quoted, and ran with.

I’m sure brad is a little unsure of his decision because he’s being recruited hard so there’s some truth to it but at the end of the day he’ll be back in dc imo. Some fans will be happy others won’t be but having his name out there until July 1 or whenever until it’s settled isn’t the worst for him.

[tleikheen]

Beal is not leading the Wizards into a relevant team that will become a threat to get past the 1st round and further. What Beal will do and probably do is be a key contributor to a team looking to get deep into the playoffs (Miami ,Philadelphia,Portland)

Wizards need to move on and get a young PG that is already producing ( Miami Herro (22 y o) 20.7 ppg , 4.0 apg / Portland Simons (23 y o) 17.3 ppg , 3.9 apg / Philadelphia Maxey (21 y o) 17.5 ppg , 4.3 apg ) These young PG's fit the timeline of the rest of the Wizards players.

PG) Herro,Simons,Maxey
SG) Kispert
SF) Kuzma
PF) Hachimura
C) Porzingus
6th) Avidja
7th) Gafford
8th) Davis
9th) KCP

[JWizmentality]

Trade to Portland for Simmons or Miami for Herro. KP did like a mock trade sending Brad to Portland. Maybe it was a foreshadowing

[Jay81]

Other than money, Brad's wife is pregnant with their third child. Not sure they want to move three young kids, but I guess it's possible. Did he tell Tommy and that's why they took Davis or is this just another attention ploy? Or is he pissed that the team did very little in the draft to help the team during the draft and that he doesn't want to play point guard even if he's going to make the super-max?

Read on Twitter

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I think us taking a trash and slash instead of EJ Lidell was the final straw

[FAH1223]

I feel like Beal just wants to be officially wooed by other front offices to feel the love, and turn around to re-sign a max deal.

On the pod, Mayo says he isn’t going to be doing the song and dance of free agent meetings.

[nate33]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[miller31time]

It’s like this franchise is constantly seeing what it can do to its few fans to make them officially jump ship?

“Would you leave if we traded Chris Webber?”

“No? How about drafting Oleksiy Pecherov with a first round pick? Would you leave us then?”

“Really?! Umm….how about we give a non-All-Star coming off a major injury the LARGEST contract in NBA HISTORY? You won’t seriously still be a fan of our team then, would you?”

[awolfinwater]

Can someone help me understand the math and this $248 number that is getting thrown around?

I calculate 250 based on the below assuming 122 million salary cap and 8 percent raises.

Projected salary cap: $122mm
2022 - 23: 122*.35 = 42.7
2023 - 24: 42.7 * 1.08 = 46.116
2024 - 25: 46.116 * 1.08 = 49.805
2025 - 26: 49.805 * 1.08 = 53.79
2026 - 27: 53.79 * 1.08 = 58.093

42.7 + 46.116 + 49.805 + 53.79 + 58.093 = $250.5 million.

I'm trying to think about how this contract will look over the years with the new TV contract expected to triple to 75 billion. Based on that new contract, I read that a proposed salary cap for 2025 - 26 could be 175 million.

If we take the above salary expectation of 53.79 million for 2025 - 26, then Beal's contract would be ~31% of the cap. Still outrageous but more palatable than John Wall and Russell Westbrook salaries of ~39% of the 2022 - 23 salary cap year.

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