2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[eminence]

I'd still lean towards Tatum as the top of the Celtics defensive pile, though not on a per-minute basis.

[dontcalltimeout]

Okay, voting has started, so let me throw in a post that I have been drafting in my head for at least the last month. This is probably my last big post, since I'm running out of time. Yes, this might have a tinge of homerism, but it is also fueled by scrutinizing every second of Miami's post-season.

The Case for Jimmy G. Buckets in Your Top Five.

Let's start with a bird's eye view of Jimmy Butler as a player who has unlocked the ability to elevate his game and explode when his team most needs it.

Game Score is a crude stat measuring box score production, but entertain a simple filtering analysis. In the last five playoffs, 22 players have had a game with a Game Score of at least 35. Here's the players who did it most frequently:

8 - Lebron James
7 - Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo
5 - Kevin Durant
3 - Mitchell, Murray, Curry, Leonard, Harden

What about if we only look at Game Scores of at least 40? That leaves us with only 12 players:

5 - Jimmy Butler
3 - LeBron James
1 - Antetokounmpo, Durant, Harden, Lillard, Tatum, Davis, Mitchel, Murray, Jokic, Paul.

In the 2020 finals, with Dragic and Adebayo both going down with injury and no creation left around him, Butler delivered some epic performances, taking an elite playoff defense to six games. I believe that Butler accessed a new level in the 2022 playoffs because of what he learned in 2020. Not just the ability to ramp up his own creation and playmaking when the team is out of options, but essentially the ability to redline in the games that matter most.

Down 3-2 to a Boston defense that had shut down all their options, I truly doubted whether Miami had a chance to even make games competitive, but I was confident in one thing: Jimmy Butler will give everything on the court. You might say, well he sucked in games four and five of that series (due to injury). However... A 40+ point game, on 70% or better TS% is among the most impactful things a player can do in the playoffs. When you pair that with top-tier wing defense, we're talking about performances that are in the most elite of the elite. I am arguing that we should value a player's ability to access his highest level of play, and expend maximum energy, basically on call, over steadier kinds of consistency that don't dramatically improve your team's chances of winning must-win games against a more talented opponent.

What about a broader view? Even averaging out the jaw-dropping games with the duds where he was hobbled, this was a special playoff run.

Look at some of these playoff stats:
Playoff Raptor --- First place at +12.0 (also first in playoff Wins Above Replacement)
Playoff AuPM --- Fourth place at +5.7 (third in AuPM per game)
Net On/Off --- +13.6 (ahead of Tatum, Embiid, Curry, and Doncic)

His scoring was elite; he averaged 28.6 pts/75 on +5.9 rTS%. The only player with a better combination of points and efficiency was Jokic. Butler was more efficient than Curry, Doncic, Embiid, Brown, Tatum, Harden, Antetokounmpo, Morant, Durant, Mitchell, and DeRozan.

And the effort stats are there too. Jimmy had more offensive rebounds than anybody save Looney, Wiggins, and RW3. He averaged more deflections per game than anybody except for Jokic and Delon Wright (both of whom played only 5 games). He had eight more And-1s than anybody else in the playoffs.

But perhaps Butler's most impressive trait is his ball protection, which is truly at all-time outlier levels. When you look at NBA history, a usage of 29.1% and turnover rate of 6.1% is basically unheard of. MJ never did it, Kawhi never did it, Kobe never did it; Chris Paul, the ball protection king, only got close once -- in 2016 when he played four games before getting injured. And against Boston, the best defense he faced, Butler's ball control was at its best -- he had only 8 turnovers for the entire 7-game series.

...........................................................................................................................................................

What about the narrative, context, and putting everything in perspective?

Start here: the heroic performances weren't supposed to be needed.

After a finals run in 2020 that saw Jimmy Butler transform into the Miami Heat's point guard, leading scorer, and personal Jesus, the plan was to put together a roster that didn't require such carrying. This Miami Heat team that cobbled together enough lineups from cast-offs and undrafted players to nab the number one seed in the East, should not have become the Jimmy Butler show. They got Kyle Lowry so that Butler wouldn't have to do everything. They saw Bam Adebayo continue to improve. They groomed Tyler Herro to be a consistent source of offense. They hoped Victor Oladipo would recover more quickly. They thought they had one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league.

Following last year's devastating first-round series, the talk among Heat fans and beat writers was that this is the year the reigns were passed over to the Adebayo/Herro core. Fans debated who the best player on the team was, and argued over "Whose team is it?" This was supposed to be the year the torch was passed because we doubted whether Butler still had it in him.

Let's be honest, when you have a certain distance, nobody cares that the 2021 playoffs were seven months removed from a finals series in which Butler offered up his body and soul at the altar of Larry O'Brien. (And, come on: I've seen LeBron get cramps in the playoffs, but I've never seen that. We know the image. It's iconic.) So, regardless of the hits to physical and mental capacity that result from a return that quick, the 2021 beatdown drained Miami of its aura. 2022 comes a mere year-and-a-half after those finals, with everyone wondering what this Miami team will look like and who this Jimmy Butler will be.

Now -- Jimmy Butler is 32 years old. He's on the back end of his career. His regular season stats make him look closer to All-NBA third team, not first team. He missed too much time to even get consideration. That will disqualify him for those who weigh the regular season heavily. But consider this: Miami was a team built for the playoffs. All the key players missed a lot of time, but the sentiment throughout was focused on what Kyle Lowry called the "Real Season." Butler is in many ways the driving force of that ethos; all that matters is 16 wins. It's not like we have questions whether Butler can have a big impact, this is a guy with three top ten finishes in RAPM (both 3-year and 5-year), including two top five finishes in DRAPM! Should we judge Butler on the 82 games that aren't even his focus anymore?

When the playoffs finally arrive, and everything that could go wrong, will go wrong. The best shooting team in the league can't shoot anymore. The point guard, who steadies the offense, pushes the pace, is out or else a hollow shell of himself. One of the best movement shooters of the past few years is unplayable. The 6th man of the year, a dependable source of offense in the regular season is completely taken out by opposing strategies, and then by injury. One of only two dependable big men on the team is 37 years old, and though he's tough as nails, every game he seemed to accrue new nagging injuries until they finally wear him down.

I truly believe Jimmy Butler is not the kind of guy who wants to go out there and take 20 or 30 shots. We have seen him, both in 2020 and in 2022, become a facilitator when his teammates have it going, feed Bam when he has the advantage, look for shooters to get them in rhythm. He is happy to take only five shots, if it's what the team needs. And he does all this by taking nothing off the table, playing elite defense and doing all the little stuff to help his team win. Perhaps what I'm building towards is that Butler is the poster child for Shiftability, which Cody Houdek defines as:

"how well a player can increase or decrease their offensive role within a team context while retaining their creation/scoring efficacy. In other words, can a typical third option take the reins of an offense as the first option through increased assists, efficiency, and/or scoring? Can a first option shift down to a role as a second or third option in a more off-ball role?"

Jimmy Butler has proven that he can shift up or down, that he can fit in or do everything, that he can carry a team deep into the playoffs with little help. This year, he did it with all the indicators of an all-time playoff run. You might think Playoff Jimmy looks too different from Regular Jimmy for you to reward it, that it might be a fluke, but what if it isn't? What if Jimmy Butler is a guy who hits another level in the playoffs, who is has consistently been more than you expect, who can look like the best player on the court against anybody in the world?

[eminence]

^^^That's a strong post for Jimmy and very well may get him my #5 slot.

[Texas Chuck]

My god, that hits me right in my Wooden heart.

I was about to tell you to not be so hard on yourself, then realized you mean John.

[The-Power]

For the 6MOY ballot, any thoughts on P.J. Washington's case?

[Texas Chuck]

Offensive Player of the Year

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pleased to see another poster recognizing that Giannis is an absolutely elite offensive player. I've never really understood why his lack of jump shooting has so many refusing to acknowledge this.

[Outside]

Offensive Player of the Year

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pleased to see another poster recognizing that Giannis is an absolutely elite offensive player. I've never really understood why his lack of jump shooting has so many refusing to acknowledge this.

Here's my problem -- I have Giannis as the most impactful two-way player in the league. I'll likely have him on my ballot for DPOY. In the rundown of my thoughts for OPOY, I was leaning toward Luka for the third spot but openly wondered if Giannis is being sold short there, and I'm considering having Giannis in the third spot instead. But if I have him in the top three in both OPOY and DPOY, does that mean I should have him first in POY, when I currently have him third?

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

[Texas Chuck]

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

I see zero issues with it. As you say there isn't a linear difference in value as you slide down. And as good as Luka is offensively, I'm just not sold yet that his season this year was truly elite. I think he was much better than the +/- crowd paints him. Like I strongly disagree that its an insult to Jayson Tatum that Luka is mentioned as level of player as I was told here just because Tatum's raw on/off is much stronger than Luka's.

But I'd definitely have Giannis ahead of Luka offensively in terms of impact this year. And probably Embiid. And maybe Trae though I'm generally philosophically opposed to rewarding guys/teams for great offensive performance where defense is intentionally sacrificed to achieve those results. It;s one of the reasons I'm way lower on LiMelo Ball than most and one of the reasons I'm not quite as high on Nash as many. Luka obviously wasn't a good defender this year, but it was clearly established you could play defense at a pretty high level with him.

[Doctor MJ]

Offensive Player of the Year

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pleased to see another poster recognizing that Giannis is an absolutely elite offensive player. I've never really understood why his lack of jump shooting has so many refusing to acknowledge this.

Here's my problem -- I have Giannis as the most impactful two-way player in the league. I'll likely have him on my ballot for DPOY. In the rundown of my thoughts for OPOY, I was leaning toward Luka for the third spot but openly wondered if Giannis is being sold short there, and I'm considering having Giannis in the third spot instead. But if I have him in the top three in both OPOY and DPOY, does that mean I should have him first in POY, when I currently have him third?

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

So, logically of course there's nothing wrong either siding with the 3rd & 3rd guy instead of guys ahead of him on one side, or siding in the other direction.

What you seem to be feeling though is that you think Giannis is actually the best player but you don't think he's the most deserving of POY. Maybe that's not what you're feeling, but it's a pretty understandable one if it is the case.

Something I've talked about all year is that the Bucks performed in the regular season well below what they'd done in the past, and well below what we'll expect them to in the playoffs - which I think held true given the scare they gave Boston despite missing Middleton. To me we have a pretty clear case of a guy and a team saving themselves for the post-season just a bit, in a way they didn't used to, and it's not just reasonable that it could hurt his MVP case, but in fact quite correct that it should and does.

Regardless of how folks feel about that, the really interesting wrinkle for us now is how to reconcile that with the post-season.

The way Giannis was playing in the time we saw him in the playoffs, it was very easy to imagine him leading his team to another chip, and that making all talk about not being more dominant in the regular season moot.

Instead his team lost in the second round, which means that Giannis' year consists of 1) a great regular season by normal standards, but a soft one for Giannis, 2) a series victory against a really, really weak playoff team, and 3) a loss to an excellent team who would come even closer to losing in the next series before getting beaten decisively in the next.

It doesn't add up to what you'd hope for a Giannis year, despite the fact that when he's fully turned on he's the most terrifying man in the game across the entire length of the court.

All this leaves a lot of room for interpretation, and it makes us have debates inside our own head as to what the most correct/enlightened/worthy interpretation actually is.

[falcolombardi]

I thought about voting here but i honestly dont know what to do with a lot of categories

Jokic/curry is tricky as hell for poy, only thingh i know is that giannis doesnt have a case vs jokic so he is 2nd at best. Luka, butler, tatum and embiid all compete for top 5

Let me do some precendent cases

2009-2010: lebron has historical regular seasons while kobe wins the championships. Lebron wins poy

2016 curry has historical regular season but subpar playoffs (1.5 series missed, 1 great series 1 bad series = bad playoffs for a mvp) lebron has strong regular season amd fantastic playoffs

2020= giannis has near historical regular season, lebron has the better playoffs

The pattern is that playoffs win tiebreakers over regular season, even in 2009 lebron was the best postseason player (2010 is arguably the exception to the pattern, it probably would go for kobe if voted for again)
The issue? Jokic and curry dont fit neatly into neither pattern, jokic is somewhere between 2009 lebron (poy) and 2016 curry (not poy)

He has the goat tier regular season and strong playoffs play, but unlike lebron he doesnt have 3 series of goat tier play under his belt

He played better on average than 2016 curry but only played 5 games to curry 18 and curry oklahoma series is actually comparable to jokic play vs warriors so there is that. I dont reward players who only play 1 series for not struggling in further rounds they didnt play

Honestly this is a unusual situation because jokic was likely a better player than curry this year overall somethingh we cannot say for kobe over lebron in 2010

I am leaning on voting for the highest level player over the season which is jokic but it sucks curry great year and ring wont get a poy because he coincided with a historical peak season

Dpoy is really tricky

draymond imo was not as dominant as other years in the playoffs and missed too much regular season, gobert is maybe the best defender in the world but is hard to give the award to a player in a meddlin defense even if he is the best defender

Hotford surprised me a ton amd giannis blew my mind in the post season but had a weak defense team in reg season. I probably would go gobert to reward the full body of work

executive is an award i have zero idea about but i guess bringing back horford was a move that made boston into a contender against all expectations, warriors wiggins mpve and trusting poole paid off handsomely and may deserve delayed praise and i am a huge fan of sixers salvaging the simmons saga even if it didnt work as well as expected at the end

Coy is probably between kerr, jenkins and monty for me the former won a ring and got everythingh they could get of pmayers like wiggs poole and looney, jenkins grizzlies surprised us all as out of nowhere contenders and he gets some credit for their young talent flourishing. Monty gets a 3rd place nod for the impressive regular seaso

[falcolombardi]

Opoy is easily jokic, no discussion at all for me. What he did with denver roster is somethingh i think had not been done since 2009 lebron, goat tier "flooraising" offense season

[Dutchball97]

6MOY is such a mess that at this rate Love is going to win with just the single vote lol.

[AussieBuck]

Offensive Player of the Year

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pleased to see another poster recognizing that Giannis is an absolutely elite offensive player. I've never really understood why his lack of jump shooting has so many refusing to acknowledge this.

Here's my problem -- I have Giannis as the most impactful two-way player in the league. I'll likely have him on my ballot for DPOY. In the rundown of my thoughts for OPOY, I was leaning toward Luka for the third spot but openly wondered if Giannis is being sold short there, and I'm considering having Giannis in the third spot instead. But if I have him in the top three in both OPOY and DPOY, does that mean I should have him first in POY, when I currently have him third?

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

This post in a nutshell is why Giannis gets reverse engineered on this board so much. If you allow the idea that he's one of the best on both ends to really sink in it leads to having to rate him higher than is comfortable for whatever individual reason.

[The-Power]

This post in a nutshell is why Giannis gets reverse engineered on this board so much. If you allow the idea that he's one of the best on both ends to really sink in it leads to having to rate him higher than is comfortable for whatever individual reason.

I think people are generally comfortable with having Giannis as the best player in the league, or at least they would agree that he has an argument. But as a matter of fact, we do not see Giannis having statistical outlier impact. Close to best in the league? Yes, but not far removed at all from the rest of the top tier. So it's only natural to wonder where he ranks on both sides of the court separately if the overall result is elite but not transcendent impact.

[dontcalltimeout]

Here's my problem -- I have Giannis as the most impactful two-way player in the league. I'll likely have him on my ballot for DPOY. In the rundown of my thoughts for OPOY, I was leaning toward Luka for the third spot but openly wondered if Giannis is being sold short there, and I'm considering having Giannis in the third spot instead. But if I have him in the top three in both OPOY and DPOY, does that mean I should have him first in POY, when I currently have him third?

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

I've been thinking about similar things with Giannis, Tatum, and couple other guys. What does it mean to be a top three player on offense? How good do the OPOY guys have to be to surpass the two-way guys?

Of course, "who is the better player" is not the be-all and end-all of your POY voting, but it's probably a consideration for many.

I have been turning to 3-year RAPM studies to try to contextualize what rankings might mean. Not by looking at where ~ individual ~ players land, but by getting more familiar with the distribution of elite impact on offense and defense. Hopefully, this is helpful to people.

I looked at seven periods of 3-year rapm via nbashotcharts (the 13-14 season to the 2021-22 season), scaled them, and estimated the per game impact estimates using pbpstats possessions.

Below you can see what the distribution of per game offensive impact and per game defensive impact looks like, but here's the gist

Spoiler:

On offense: +3.75 per game looks like it's a good differentiator. It's essentially top five in most years. Your top three guys are in the range of +4.25 and up. If you're +5.0ish on just offense, there's a good chance there's no one better than you.

In today's game, defense is way more compressed. The best marks here are +3.5 instead of +6.0. If a guy hits +2.5 or more in defensive impact per game, that's worthy of the DPOY ballot. Top five guys start at +2.1ish.

So I think of it this way:

- If Giannis is top 3 in both offense and defense, that very likely means he's in the range of +6.75 in per game impact. Maybe we can be more conservative, say it's a down year for defense, and Giannis gets into the top with an impact closer to +2.25, and he's overall +6.50 or something.

- In terms of "pure" player evaluation, Jokic and Curry have to be pretty special to surpass that. Anything north of +6.0 usually means you're on the top of the mountain.

- It's possible that we're having three really special seasons, and it's possible that Jokic and Curry are having all-time offense seasons. But this puts them in position of needing to be upwards of +5.5 on offense alone to match Antetokounmpo (they're likely not better than top 50 on defense). And I should note here that in the seven 3-yr periods I looked at, only three marks are above +5.5 on offense (including only one at +6.0).

- If I think Jokic and Curry are in the same range as Giannis but not having a once-in-a-decade seasons, it's possible that the valuation for Giannis should be closer to +3.0 on offense. (Between +3.75 and +2.75 is still solidly top ten most years, and a +5.5 value is POY worthy territory.) When I first started this project a few months ago, I thought it was close (closer to Jokic) but likely that Giannis was the best player in the world.

- A question I have is: how have people concluded that Jokic and Curry rate as defenders? In May, I had them at slight negatives, but looking at this distribution +0.00 is the break point for top 50%, and do they seem like bottom 50% defenders? [For the record, top 70% starts at +0.30 and the top 100 or so guys start at +0.50.] If I ultimately find them to be positives on defense, this whole thing gets much closer and Jokic probably edges Giannis out for me.

[Outside]

Here's my problem -- I have Giannis as the most impactful two-way player in the league. I'll likely have him on my ballot for DPOY. In the rundown of my thoughts for OPOY, I was leaning toward Luka for the third spot but openly wondered if Giannis is being sold short there, and I'm considering having Giannis in the third spot instead. But if I have him in the top three in both OPOY and DPOY, does that mean I should have him first in POY, when I currently have him third?

I can rationalize that by saying the offensive gap between Jokic/Curry at the top and Giannis in third is so large that even being that much better defensively doesn't close the gap, and I do think that's a valid argument, but dayum, it makes my head hurt.

These guys are really, really good.

I've been thinking about similar things with Giannis, Tatum, and couple other guys. What does it mean to be a top three player on offense? How good do the OPOY guys have to be to surpass the two-way guys?

Of course, "who is the better player" is not the be-all and end-all of your POY voting, but it's probably a consideration for many.

I have been turning to 3-year RAPM studies to try to contextualize what rankings might mean. Not by looking at where ~ individual ~ players land, but by getting more familiar with the distribution of elite impact on offense and defense. Hopefully, this is helpful to people.

I looked at seven periods of 3-year rapm via nbashotcharts (the 13-14 season to the 2021-22 season), scaled them, and estimated the per game impact estimates using pbpstats possessions.

Below you can see what the distribution of per game offensive impact and per game defensive impact looks like, but here's the gist

Spoiler:

On offense: +3.75 per game looks like it's a good differentiator. It's essentially top five in most years. Your top three guys are in the range of +4.25 and up. If you're +5.0ish on just offense, there's a good chance there's no one better than you.

In today's game, defense is way more compressed. The best marks here are +3.5 instead of +6.0. If a guy hits +2.5 or more in defensive impact per game, that's worthy of the DPOY ballot. Top five guys start at +2.1ish.

So I think of it this way:

- If Giannis is top 3 in both offense and defense, that very likely means he's in the range of +6.75 in per game impact. Maybe we can be more conservative, say it's a down year for defense, and Giannis gets into the top with an impact closer to +2.25, and he's overall +6.50 or something.

- In terms of "pure" player evaluation, Jokic and Curry have to be pretty special to surpass that. Anything north of +6.0 usually means you're on the top of the mountain.

- It's possible that we're having three really special seasons, and it's possible that Jokic and Curry are having all-time offense seasons. But this puts them in position of needing to be upwards of +5.5 on offense alone to match Antetokounmpo (they're likely not better than top 50 on defense). And I should note here that in the seven 3-yr periods I looked at, only three marks are above +5.5 on offense (including only one at +6.0).

- If I think Jokic and Curry are in the same range as Giannis but not having a once-in-a-decade seasons, it's possible that the valuation for Giannis should be closer to +3.0 on offense. (Between +3.75 and +2.75 is still solidly top ten most years, and a +5.5 value is POY worthy territory.) When I first started this project a few months ago, I thought it was close (closer to Jokic) but likely that Giannis was the best player in the world.

- A question I have is: how have people concluded that Jokic and Curry rate as defenders? In May, I had them at slight negatives, but looking at this distribution +0.00 is the break point for top 50%, and do they seem like bottom 50% defenders? [For the record, top 70% starts at +0.30 and the top 100 or so guys start at +0.50.] If I ultimately find them to be positives on defense, this whole thing gets much closer and Jokic probably edges Giannis out for me.

I appreciate your take on this. This type of study is informative, though the usual caveats apply:

-- It's a multi-year study, which is best for RAPM, but we're evaluating a single season. A player may be having a somewhat down year, but prior year performance would inflate his numbers, or the reverse could occur, where they're better this season but the numbers would be lower due to prior seasons. Curry in particular seems susceptible to this, he missed most of 2019-20 and the team was mediocre last season, plus he has shown noticeable defensive improvement over recent seasons which would make his D-RAPM trend up but be lower in the three-season sample than they would be if using this season alone.

-- We have to avoid using RAPM as a straight-up ranking system, which is hard to do, considering human nature. Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Embiid, Luka, Tatum, Butler -- they are such different players with different roles and styles, which means their impact will be expressed in RAPM in different ways. It's really tough to parse.

Still, this approach is useful and can be a factor added to the mix, though I'll give a single-year impact metric like LEBRON or EPM more weight.

I was a bit dramatic in my post about Giannis that generated this side discussion. I'm pretty comfortable saying that Giannis can be in top three in my DPOY, top three in my OPOY, and still wind up third in my POY. The gap offensively between Jokic/Curry and everyone else is sizeable in my view. I was just pointing out the conundrum for discussion.

Again, thanks for your post.

[dontcalltimeout]

I appreciate your take on this. This type of study is informative, though the usual caveats apply:

-- It's a multi-year study, which is best for RAPM, but we're evaluating a single season. A player may be having a somewhat down year, but prior year performance would inflate his numbers, or the reverse could occur, where they're better this season but the numbers would be lower due to prior seasons. Curry in particular seems susceptible to this, he missed most of 2019-20 and the team was mediocre last season, plus he has shown noticeable defensive improvement over recent seasons which would make his D-RAPM trend up but be lower in the three-season sample than they would be if using this season alone.

-- We have to avoid using RAPM as a straight-up ranking system, which is hard to do, considering human nature. Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Embiid, Luka, Tatum, Butler -- they are such different players with different roles and styles, which means their impact will be expressed in RAPM in different ways. It's really tough to parse.

Thanks! Appreciate the response. To be clear: I'm not tying any of the RAPM results to a particular player or using it to rank anyone. I'm trying to get a sense of the spread so I know what kinds of values are actually feasible.

I think you're suggesting the 3-yr studies flatten out the outliers? I've come to think that 3-years is optimal though: enough data that the regression gets more comfortable with outlier values (whereas it forces them to zero more in single year), but it's not so long as the 5-year which really groups together longer stretches and loses short peaks.

I haven't done this with prior-informed single-year studies because they're hard to find for recent years, but I wouldn't guess that there would be a big difference.

Still, this approach is useful and can be a factor added to the mix, though I'll give a single-year impact metric like LEBRON or EPM more weight.

Definitely agree that hybrid metrics are better for single-year comparisons, but I do find myself having to curve down. I think the box-score component leads to some outlier values that don't feel realistic, like +5.0 defensive value or +9 or more overall.

I was a bit dramatic in my post about Giannis that generated this side discussion. I'm pretty comfortable saying that Giannis can be in top three in my DPOY, top three in my OPOY, and still wind up third in my POY. The gap offensively between Jokic/Curry and everyone else is sizeable in my view. I was just pointing out the conundrum for discussion.

Again, thanks for your post.

Completely understand, by the way, and I appreciate you pointing out the conundrum. It's something that I had been thinking about for a while so it was a good opportunity for me to tangibly hash out some thoughts. Hopefully you don't feel like I'm trying to convince you or disagree with you specifically, so much as I'm trying to work things through out loud.

[Doctor MJ]

6MOY is such a mess that at this rate Love is going to win with just the single vote lol.

Really hope that doesn't happen - nothing against Love, but it would be a bummer to me if we started getting so few votes for the minor awards that I'd have to consider abandoning them as meaningful.

[The-Power]

Since 6MOY has been so difficult to determine for me, I thought I'd just look up 15 candidates and see how they fare in various metrics (RAPM, EPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR) and I added the minutes (RS+PS). Here's how they rank compared to each other (sorry for the poor formatting):

–––––––––––– RAPM, EPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR | Minutes
Grant Williams: 14th, 14th, 15th, 13th | 2nd
Gary Payton II: 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st | 15th
Tyler Herro: 7th, 11th, 12th, 11th | 1st
Pat Connaughton: 15th, 15th, 12th, 9th | 6th
Kevin Love: 11th, 2nd, 3rd, 4th | 14th
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 5th | 7th
P.J. Washington: 4th, 9th, 9th, 15th | 13th
Cameron Johnson: 10th, 6th, 7th, 2nd | 5th
Tyus Jones: 9th, 7th, 6th, 7th | 12th
DeAnthony Melton: 8th, 3rd, 5th, 6th | 11th
Jordan Clarkson: 1st, 4th, 4th, 3rd | 4th
Jaden McDaniels: 13th, 13th, 14th, 12th | 9th
Terance Mann: 6th, 9th, 10th, 10th | 3rd
Luke Kennard: 5th, 8th, 11th, 7th | 10th
Devin Vassell: 12th, 12th, 8th, 14th | 8th

Some thoughts on the best candidates (good chance that 3 of the 4 end up on my ballot):
– Gary Payton II has played clearly the fewest minutes but he's the king of impact and mixed stats. He may have done enough to warrant votes (I think he has), especially since he made an impact in the playoffs as well.
– Bogdan Bogdanovic had an excellent season with top-5 rankings in all categories and despite the first round exit (where he held up reasonably well) played solid minutes; he looks like a good candidate.
– Jordan Clarkson has fared much better in those metrics than I thought. Not a big fan of his but he seemed to have really helped the Jazz, and he played a ton of minutes this year.
– Cameron Johnson grades out fairly well by these metrics and played a lot of minutes. Not as good in the playoffs but not terrible either, at least on offense.

Love has fared well overall but is hurt by limited minutes. Herro has played a ton of minutes but his impact has been questionable and he topped it off with terrible playoffs. Grant Williams looked like a key piece in the playoffs until the Finals, but overall doesn't come out as impressive by those numbers at all. The Memphis duo has been really solid but overall not quite good enough to warrant consideration, I'd say.

Perhaps it helps someone else, too. If you need specific numbers or overall league rankings (for RAPM or EPM) just let me know, I have them in my spreadsheet.

[Doctor MJ]

I thought about voting here but i honestly dont know what to do with a lot of categories

Jokic/curry is tricky as hell for poy, only thingh i know is that giannis doesnt have a case vs jokic so he is 2nd at best. Luka, butler, tatum and embiid all compete for top 5

Let me do some precendent cases

2009-2010: lebron has historical regular seasons while kobe wins the championships. Lebron wins poy

2016 curry has historical regular season but subpar playoffs (1.5 series missed, 1 great series 1 bad series = bad playoffs for a mvp) lebron has strong regular season amd fantastic playoffs

2020= giannis has near historical regular season, lebron has the better playoffs

The pattern is that playoffs win tiebreakers over regular season, even in 2009 lebron was the best postseason player (2010 is arguably the exception to the pattern, it probably would go for kobe if voted for again)
The issue? Jokic and curry dont fit neatly into neither pattern, jokic is somewhere between 2009 lebron (poy) and 2016 curry (not poy)

He has the goat tier regular season and strong playoffs play, but unlike lebron he doesnt have 3 series of goat tier play under his belt

He played better on average than 2016 curry but only played 5 games to curry 18 and curry oklahoma series is actually comparable to jokic play vs warriors so there is that. I dont reward players who only play 1 series for not struggling in further rounds they didnt play

Honestly this is a unusual situation because jokic was likely a better player than curry this year overall somethingh we cannot say for kobe over lebron in 2010

I am leaning on voting for the highest level player over the season which is jokic but it sucks curry great year and ring wont get a poy because he coincided with a historical peak season

So I'm going to urge caution when looking to use prior years as precedent. I want people to make sure they have their head around the criteria I've laid out, and to try to understand what drove the perspectives of others, but in the end, your perspective is fundamentally as valid as any who came before.

ftr, in those years, while I sided with some of the playoff heroes ('16 LeBron, '20 LeBron), I also sided with some guys who had the lead after the regular season ('10 LeBron, '19 Giannis). I'm happy to elaborate on any of that, but I think that's enough to show that at least for me, the formulation is a bit more complicated than one might infer.

Also, I'm glad you recognize the peril of calling a guy who played only 1 round a better playoff performer than someone who played 4 and struggled in the last one, though I certainly don't advocate for eliminating guys from consideration simply because they lacked the teammates to advance further.

Dpoy is really tricky

draymond imo was not as dominant as other years in the playoffs and missed too much regular season, gobert is maybe the best defender in the world but is hard to give the award to a player in a meddlin defense even if he is the best defender

Hotford surprised me a ton amd giannis blew my mind in the post season but had a weak defense team in reg season. I probably would go gobert to reward the full body of work

Yup, sure is tricky this year.

executive is an award i have zero idea about but i guess bringing back horford was a move that made boston into a contender against all expectations, warriors wiggins mpve and trusting poole paid off handsomely and may deserve delayed praise and i am a huge fan of sixers salvaging the simmons saga even if it didnt work as well as expected at the end

Sounds like you have ideas.

Coy is probably between kerr, jenkins and monty for me the former won a ring and got everythingh they could get of pmayers like wiggs poole and looney, jenkins grizzlies surprised us all as out of nowhere contenders and he gets some credit for their young talent flourishing. Monty gets a 3rd place nod for the impressive regular seaso

So one thing I'll say here:

While the distinction between "82 game vs 16 game" players is something we talk about with players and it's a real thing, I think the truth is that it's a bigger thing with coaches based on their approach.

Are you trying to create the best way for your players to play together based on their skillsets to face a typical team that isn't specifically prepared for you?

or

Are you trying to train a team so that when you get to a playoff series, you can try different approaches to counter your opponent while still having your players function?

In any given case I think it's right to push back on the notion that a particular coach is "only an 82 game coach", but we've seen a number of series in recent years where the team that ends up losing felt like the better regular season team and they lost the series because they didn't adapt adroitly to the playoff opponent in front of them.

The poster coach for this is Doc Rivers. Coach Bud during the playoff disappointments of Giannis' MVP years earned this reputation as well - but I do think he's an example of someone who has turned the steering wheel with time, just not in the ultra-agile way that coaches like Lue/Nurse/Spo personify.

I was disturbed by what I saw from Phoenix in the Dallas series not so much because the Mavs gradually got the better of them, but because it really felt like Monty wasn't really looking to make significant adjustments. Maybe the Mavs' falling apart in Game 5 - and thus making it so that the Suns never went down a break until the final game - lulled Monty into the trap of thinking that the Suns were going to win simply because they were the more complete team, but however it happened, way I'm feeling right now is that it really hurts how I'm seeing him as a complete-package coach.