jman3134 wrote:I like both Davis and Ivey a lot in this draft. Davis is a more refined offensive weapon at this point, but I think Ivey has the burst to play much better in space, which is what the next level is all about. Davis received unprecedented defensive attention from what I saw on film. I think he is going to be one of the gems of this class as well, though I view Ivey as a better prospect. Both are towards the top of this class imo.
100% eye test: for Chet, I understand why he is an elite prospect, but I don't believe that he will develop close to his upside case. To do so, he will need to continue developing his handle and establish himself as a 40%+ 3pt shooter right out of the gate. Defensively, I think he will be decent from a help perspective, but I don't see him adding enough weight to not be somewhat of a liability 1 on 1. He is one of the more difficult calls, but I lean towards him not reaching the upside case.
Banchero I don't like as an NBA prospect in the top 10. He peaked early on his physical development. He is a solid midrange shooter, but just average from 3. He doesn't have much in the way of defense. He has a good handle and decent fluidity for his size. Could he continue to develop? Sure. But, he will need to specialize from beyond the arc to make up for his complete liability on the defensive end. Maybe if an NBA team uses him as a small ball center and then surrounds him with some lengthy wings to rim protect he can reach his potential. That could be a situational win. He certainly rebounds well enough and has the physicality. But, more likely than not, I think he will not live up to expectations.
Jabari Smith I am very high on in terms of his shot making and general scoring ability. I think he is a perfect fit in the modern NBA.
Keegan Murray I have expressed in other threads that I do not see as an elite level prospect from his college tape, but I admit that I might be missing something from a personality composition standpoint.
Mathurin is absolutely one of my favorite prospects in this class as well. I'm not completely sold on the shooting, but I think he is a good overall scorer with solid explosiveness, which will translate. He is in my upper tier of this class.
AJ Griffin I like a lot more than consensus at this point. I think the age and shot making portend big things to come. Obviously, he is still a work in progress, but I think he is still young enough to develop certain areas of his game and emerge towards the top of this class, injuries permitting. Obviously, you have to discount the injury history and take a look at his medical though.
Also, I really like Malaki Branham's shot making. I wouldn't put him in my top top tier, but he is up there.
Mark Williams impact on the defensive end is going to translate considerably and he is going to be a big win for someone. In the second round, Christian Koloko should actually have a great impact as well with the ability to switch out on the perimeter. These nimble footed bigs should be big wins in this class.
Jeremy Sochan is one of my favorite players in this draft from a defensive standpoint as well. I think he will provide some unique switchable presence on the floor. Offensively, I think he has a lot of work to do, but should be a very rich man's PJ Tucker. Winning player.
There are a bunch of players I believe are mis-valued in the 2nd round this year according to what the mocks say now. Gui Santos, Christian Koloko, Ryan Rollins, Dominick Barlow, Gabriele Procida, Jean Montero, and Kenny Lofton I believe are elite value.
I'm light on my G League Ignite tapework and Tari Eason so I'm going to abstain from making any general statements. Analytics and tools obviously look good on Eason, but IQ looks a bit all over the place from what I've seen. I'm not sure where to put him at this point.
My tiers from a prospect's standpoint (weighing likelihood of hitting + where I think they'll end up):
Jabari Smith
Jaden Ivey
Chet (with the most upside, but not reaching it)
Mathurin
Griffin (injuries being a big risk)
Davis
Branham
Sochan
Mark Williams
Duren
Agbaji
Banchero
Keegan
Gui Santos (see upside for more but shooting)
Dalen Terry (see upside for a lot more but shooting)
Koloko
Jalen Williams
Barlow
Ivey has really high bust potential to me while having high upside potential too. I expect to see him drafted ahead of Davis but they should be considered pretty close, much closer than they are being mocked broadly. The reaction BBIQ Davis has lets him be a good defender, it lets him enter the midrange with a live dribble, I don't see this in Ivey, I don't think he thinks or reacts fast enough. I would personally choose a isolation+D wing over a straight line speed demon in the modern NBA.
Chet to me is the guy Magic should take, try build your offense through him. I think he will surprise a bit with his midrange shooting in the NBA. If you can make him a key cog in an offense like Draymond but with better shooting then you have your #1 guy.
I'm very high on Smith too. Chet and him are top 2 and I can't split them. Banchero I think is going to be like a Tobias Harris level player, decent and can do a lot of everything but limited to a 4 on defense that can't cover much outside of the 4.
I like Sochan too and expect him to go top 10. Like Lofton too, he will be good value.