2021-2022 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Monix]

If they're going to make the pick, IMO you have to use it for someone with a chance to help this year. I have zero interest in a mediocre 1-dimensional scorer. I'm looking at a guy that could play a role on O and have a clue/chance on D.

My board for them at #23 is Dalen Terry, Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Williams, Jake Laravia, Christian Braun

[Negrodamus]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

[ankle420breaker]

Such a glorious day. Rumors, trades, prospecting, watching a new class get ushered in. Hoops holiday.

I take off work every draft day. Brisket on the smoker, cold afternoon beer, and basketball. All day.

Sent from my SM-S901U using RealGM mobile app

[Jailblazers7]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

I think a guy like Moore could as well. Being an immediate contributor on a playoff team usually means you’ve gotta be able to shoot, defend, and have high processing speed. Not many players hit those marks (especially the processing speed one).

[Iverson Armband]

Such a glorious day. Rumors, trades, prospecting, watching a new class get ushered in. Hoops holiday.

I take off work every draft day. Brisket on the smoker, cold afternoon beer, and basketball. All day.

Sent from my SM-S901U using RealGM mobile app

I always take the day after off to get caught up on all the movement, always helps that it’s a Friday too. But I hear ya, enjoy!

[ankle420breaker]

Such a glorious day. Rumors, trades, prospecting, watching a new class get ushered in. Hoops holiday.

I take off work every draft day. Brisket on the smoker, cold afternoon beer, and basketball. All day.

Sent from my SM-S901U using RealGM mobile app

I always take the day after off to get caught up on all the movement, always helps that it’s a Friday too. But I hear ya, enjoy!

Strong play. You as well. Cheers Brother!!

Sent from my SM-S901U using RealGM mobile app

[Negrodamus]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

I think a guy like Moore could as well. Being an immediate contributor on a playoff team usually means you’ve gotta be able to shoot, defend, and have high processing speed. Not many players hit those marks (especially the processing speed one).

Possibly. He does have the length and presumed shooting capability to make it work. The reason I separate Tari from someone like Wendell is because Tari has an absurd STL%, BLK%, super high defensive effort, switchable across 1-4 with some ability to play 5. Him purely as a role player could have a massive effect on a series, particularly if that 80% FT is real (end of game scenarios).

Wendell is more 1-3 but more of an all around guy. Not much in the way of rebounding. Doesn't have the athleticism of Tari. I could see him needing a year to get acclimated to defensive assignments and having the equity to play with the ball in his hands.

Either way, if Tari OR Wendell play out of their minds during the regular season, Doc will just say:

Read on Twitter

[Monix]

also like Alondes Williams, Julien Champagnie & Ron Harper Jr if they buy a late 2nd or as UDFA/2-Way guys

[Madd Squabbles]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

You believe Dalen Terry would get COOKED!?! I don't see that.

[Madd Squabbles]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

I think a guy like Moore could as well. Being an immediate contributor on a playoff team usually means you’ve gotta be able to shoot, defend, and have high processing speed. Not many players hit those marks (especially the processing speed one).

Possibly. He does have the length and presumed shooting capability to make it work. The reason I separate Tari from someone like Wendell is because Tari has an absurd STL%, BLK%, super high defensive effort, switchable across 1-4 with some ability to play 5. Him purely as a role player could have a massive effect on a series, particularly if that 80% FT is real (end of game scenarios).

Wendell is more 1-3 but more of an all around guy. Not much in the way of rebounding. Doesn't have the athleticism of Tari. I could see him needing a year to get acclimated to defensive assignments and having the equity to play with the ball in his hands.

Either way, if Tari OR Wendell play out of their minds during the regular season, Doc will just say:

Read on Twitter

Would be surprised to see Eason get by the Rockets but if he does he could slide all the way to the Sixers.

[Negrodamus]

There's only one player in this draft that is within reach of us that could be played in any capacity in the playoffs during his rookie year, and that player is Tari Eason. The rest would get absolutely cooked out there.

You believe Dalen Terry would get COOKED!?! I don't see that.

Dalen Terry is a beanpole. He wouldn't stand a chance against Jimmy Butler or DeMar DeRozan. If he's not able to guard those guys, then what are we playing him for? His fantastic shooting?

He can be a good role player down the line, but he'd get killed his rookie season in the playoffs.

[Kobblehead]

I think they'd trade Cole and clear the decks for Jalen Suggs to be their Holiday-ish defensive PG. Suggs and Holmgren's built-in chemistry is one of the main reasons they would pass on Jabari.

I actually think cole would be perfect for their giant team, while there’s not much need for suggs. You dont need that much defense at guards when you have that much size at 3-4-5.

They’d then need stars who can gravitate the defense to the perimeter that will make it tough for the defense to defend lobs to their giants.

I could be wrong hahaha

Anyway i have a feeling i’d watch a lot of magic games in the future. They have 3 of my guys. Fultz, wagner and chet. My brother is actually a magic fan and i gave him my two Fultz jerseys lol. Told him about wagner last year. Then im selling him chet. He likes Jabari though but i think he’s confused right now hahahah

Yeah, great call on Franz Wagner btw. You were totally right about him.

[Kobblehead]

I want size and skill, above all else, tonight.

Trade Up:
Malaki Branham (19) - 6'5" 180

Pick at #23:
Bryce McGowens (19) - 6'7" 179
Matteo Spagnolo (19) - 6'5" 195
Max Christie (19) - 6'6" 190
Wendell Moore (20) - 6'5" 216

Buy a 2nd rounder:
Johnny Juzang (21) - 6'6" 210

[Negrodamus]

Just a recap of 2 drafts ago from my statistical eval:

Fill all:
Onyeka Okongwu
Devin Vassell
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyler Bey
Devon Dotson
Paul Reed
Skylar Mays
Killian Tillie
Malachi Flynn
Payton Pritchard
Mason Jones


Notes:

-Anthony Edwards is pretty dreadful as the top pick.

-Wiseman kinda fills most, but also it's impossible to evaluate 3 games, so I just left him out.

-Josh Green feels like a guy who will reach the "Fill all" section as his game grows based on all other aspects of his game. The OBPM being sub 4 feels lower than his ability based on the eye test. Tyrell Terry too.

-Tre Jones and CJ Elleby just off with a .52 TS%; Bane and Trevelin Queen just off with a sub .2 FTr; Cassius Winston and Ty-Shon Alexander with a 1.9 DBPM; Xavier Tillman with a sub 70% FT but jeez, he blows out every other category.

-Sam Merrill and Markus Howard just miss because of their STL% but have some of the higher OBPM in this draft. Kaleb Wesson also just misses because of STL%.

I'll add more if I have time later. Obviously I like a lot of prospects that just miss the list and eye test is still quite important, but it's nice to filter the options down when you have later picks in the draft.

and the year before that:

I'm kinda bored, so here is a big board broken down by prospects that fill all of my statistical prerequisites for their position, fill almost all, fill some, or missing too many. I'm leaving out international.

Fill all:
Ja Morant
Coby White
Jaxson Hayes
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Tyler Herro
Chuma Okeke
Terence Davis
Shamorie Ponds
Tremont Waters
Dedric Lawson

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1860201&start=980

I'd ignore most of the higher end picks like Ja Morant, Okongwu, and Vassell. I feel there is a different set of standards for those guys. I'm also completely clueless on how to rate big men. I suppose Jaxson Hayes has had his moments. Dedric Lawson is in Korea, I think. Killian Tillie is injury prone and in the G-League. One takeaway should probably be athleticism is more important than I've given it in the past. Then again, that would have disqualified someone like Jokic from consideration.

I also think height is a disqualifier for me. Tremont Waters, Ponds, Dotson are too small/thin to be of interest (sorry Kennedy Chandler).

I've been looking more towards a scoring element and less about drawing fouls. I think FTr should be reserved for top ten selections to ensure you are getting superstar level talent.


The overarching evaluation is derived from looking into similar trends in the stats of all stars. The first year I did it, here were the all stars:

Wings that played in the BPM era (according to Sports Reference) in college and made it to one of the past two All Star games:

Kyrie Irving - OBPM: 9.8, DBPM: 5.0, STL%: 3.0, AST%: 29.8
Kawhi Leonard - OBPM: 5.3, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 2.7, AST%: 16.0
Bradley Beal - OBPM: 5.4, DBPM: 2.9, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 12.7
Ben Simmons - OBPM: 7.0, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 27.4
Damian Lillard -OBPM: 9.1, DBPM: 0.7, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 27.1
Klay Thompson -OBPM: 6.8, DBPM: 3.0, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 25.0
Victor Oladipo - OBPM: 8.9, DBPM: 6.2, STL%: 4.6, AST%: 15.2
Khris Middleton - OBPM: 4.3, DBPM: 1.9, STL%: 2.1, AST%: 20.0
D'Angelo Russell - OBPM: 8.6, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 30.1
Kemba Walker -OBPM: 9.2, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 28.0
Devin Booker -OBPM: 6.1, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 1.3, AST%: 10.9
Jayson Tatum - OBPM: 4.6, DBPM: 3.2, STL%: 2.3, AST%: 12.2
Jimmy Butler - OBPM: 7.2, DBPM: 2.2, STL%: 2.4, AST%: 13.2
Donovan Mitchell - OBPM: 5.7, DBPM: 5.5, STL%: 3.7, AST%: 16.0
Brandon Ingram- OBPM: 6.0, DBPM: 2.0, STL%: 1.9, AST%: 11.4
Trae Young - OBPM: 9.7, DBPM: 1.3, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 48.6

DBPM, aside from a few anomalies is 2+. STL% is generally 2.2+, AST% is at least 10+, OBPM is at least 5+

[Negrodamus]

Let me also add a qualifier:

These guys aren't machines. And the ones that do make it require mental fortitude that is unmeasurable from YouTube videos. The expectation of every draft is to hit on that probably 16%-20% (10-15ish prospect) that stick around the league. I'm just trying to narrow down the field to prospects that have a better shot at stardom. Some guys that fall short of these stats will make it and most guys with these stats will fall on their face.

[76ciology]

I think they'd trade Cole and clear the decks for Jalen Suggs to be their Holiday-ish defensive PG. Suggs and Holmgren's built-in chemistry is one of the main reasons they would pass on Jabari.

I actually think cole would be perfect for their giant team, while there’s not much need for suggs. You dont need that much defense at guards when you have that much size at 3-4-5.

They’d then need stars who can gravitate the defense to the perimeter that will make it tough for the defense to defend lobs to their giants.

I could be wrong hahaha

Anyway i have a feeling i’d watch a lot of magic games in the future. They have 3 of my guys. Fultz, wagner and chet. My brother is actually a magic fan and i gave him my two Fultz jerseys lol. Told him about wagner last year. Then im selling him chet. He likes Jabari though but i think he’s confused right now hahahah

Yeah, great call on Franz Wagner btw. You were totally right about him.

Change of mind. I dont like Banchero

[mjkvol]

Okay, which teams 'won' the draft?

Just a quick perusal shows me that HOU, DET, SA, NO, and GS (as usual) really improved themselves and were smart (and lucky) all night.
The Rockets, getting Smith and Eason is a grand slam. The Pistons are going to be must-see TV. The Spurs might have the greatest upside among all their picks, and those kids couldn't be in a better place.

I'm also going to call the Sixers winners. A week ago they didn't even have a pick, and they walked away with a rock solid young third guard, only having to give up a guy who was trade bait or a release candidate.

[Kobblehead]

1. Timberwolves

Draft Haul:
1. Matteo Spagnolo (19), 6'6" 195 - Elite shooting talent. Some dribble game, as well. One of the most skilled players in this class and will definitely be among the biggest steals when it's all said and done.
2. Wendell Moore (20), 6'5" 216 - Powerful and skilled. Moore has a low maintenance personality and the offensive skill to be a major asset at either the SG or SF position.
3. Josh Minott (20), 6'8" 205 - Elite defensive F. Of all the defensive grinders in this class, he may have the best offensive upside.
4. Walker Kessler (20), 7'1" 245 - Possible the best shotblocker we've ever seen. The perfect guy to play behind (and occasionally alongside) Towns.

2. Spurs

Draft Haul:
1. Malaki Branham (19), 6'5" 180 - Easily the best player in this draft. Will be the #1 or #2 scoring option for the Spurs on their next Finals run and teams will be kicking themselves.
2. Jeremy Sochan (19), 6'9" 230 - Big bodied defensive grinder. Will have some work to do before he can even tread water on offense, however. He's a flamboyant, weird bastard so we'll see if he wears out his welcome with Pop.
3. Blake Wesley (19), 6'5" 181 - Pesky, athletic, defensive guard with a willing trigger from three. Will remind people of Bones Hyland. Will need to improve his skill level because he's a little under-par.

3. Hornets

Draft Haul:
1. Bryce McGowens (19), 6'7" 179 - Top 10 talent that fell to the 2nd round for no apparent reason. McGowens is going to make the whole league look foolish when he develops into a franchise player for the Hornets.
2. Mark Williams (20), 7'0" 243 - Mark Williams is everything you want in a C. He blocks shots, he rebounds, and he's become a good positional free throw shooter.

[mjkvol]

1. Timberwolves

Draft Haul:
1. Matteo Spagnolo (19), 6'6" 195 - Elite shooting talent. Some dribble game, as well. One of the most skilled players in this class and will definitely be among the biggest steals when it's all said and done.
2. Wendell Moore (20), 6'5" 216 - Powerful and skilled. Moore has a low maintenance personality and the offensive skill to be a major asset at either the SG or SF position.
3. Josh Minott (20), 6'8" 205 - Elite defensive F. Of all the defensive grinders in this class, he may have the best offensive upside.
4. Walker Kessler (20), 7'1" 245 - Possible the best shotblocker we've ever seen. The perfect guy to play behind (and occasionally alongside) Towns.

Forgot MIN, meant to include them. Killer class with a kid who can help immediately (Moore), a rim protector that can play with Towns, and some huge developmental talent.

[Kobblehead]

Yeah, and with Taureen Prince and his 17 mpg becoming a free agent, there's some potential for either Moore or Minott to get on the court in year 1. Wendell would probably get the nod because of his experience and trusted skill level. They'll probably groom Josh as the eventual Jaden McDaniels replacement.