imagump1313 wrote:G R E Y wrote:imagump1313 wrote:
As I have said before. I like Ayton but not instead of Poeltl. I honestly don't think he is that much better than Poeltl overall and I dont think Jakob would command a max deal like Ayton does.
Well in order to secure Ayton, Jakob may be the price. What we have to ask ourselves is not so much where each player is right now, but where he'll be in years three of four from now, and how much higher are their ceilings.
Jakob's defense is excellent. His O has limitations built in, and even with being a non-3s shooting big, his FTs are ever woeful for reasons that seem destined to remain a mystery.
The main difference is that however much better Jakob may get, the fact remains that we must work around certain limitations to his O whereas we can work with Ayton's broader O skill set.
I think Ayon has more to his game to show and I think we're great at being able to do it. Ayton would always be a third or fourth option on the Suns because their stars are in the back court and they eat first. He'd be featured more with us and we could use more of his skills.
Jakob will be looking for a pay raise on his next contract, and given whatever growth evaluators think he'll make or not, how much is that worth versus a maxed Ayton with more of his game yet to grow? He's already averaging more in points and rebounds, can take and make 3s (36.8% this season) and makes FTs at 75%. That's the starting point.
Ayton is only 23 and when this next contract ends will be around the age where Jakob is now as well.
There are a lot of positives in using current known assets to acquire higher ceiling ones, players who to us may be more worth the max risk because of how we could further develop and utilize them.
The single hesitation I have is Ayton's not really getting on with Monty who is a great person, easy going. Can we rein in Ayton's video gaming (he reportedly lost sleep during the POs to it yikes) and is he coachable or would he chafe under Pop's more direct approach? Again, if he feels wanted and is given a bigger role, we have to be sure that he'd want the bigger responsibility and step up to the challenge.
Perhaps like with Derrick we are looking to maximize other assets whose ceilings are more or less known and whose games are better suited on more fleshed out teams while we get younger potentially bigger stars in the making.
If the character fits, I think it's a good risk, but have no idea what we are looking to do with our cap space, just that it's been very important for us to preserve it. We have lots of options, and even keeping Jakob to re-sign him is one of them.
I still don't like it. The only way we were going to have a chance to be a contender somewhat soon was to keep Poeltl and maximize his game. He is the perfect mix of good enough and cheap enough at his position, even with a new contract.
Then we could have spent the big money elsewhere and possibly got lucky enough to be really good. Signing Ayton takes a giant chunk of that flexibility away to the point where we wont be able to afford adding 2 other big pieces even if we had an opportunity.
We are going to have to overspend somewhere to be good again, or get super lucky in the draft.
Well it's an interesting discussion in terms of team building. We're assuming Jakob's contract will be cheap again, but cheap is also relative to output. You're right that we can and have maximized his game, but if we're pretty much reached or are near to reaching the top level where he's at, how much is it worth to us in terms of living with glaring limitations? The FTs are a more serious issue the further in the POs we get.
But Jakob is a type of player than can be more useful to teams built in specific ways. Cs of his mold that don't shoot 3s, like Looney or Williams on the Cs or Gobert, are surrounded by 3s shooting players, and these teams take way more 3s than we do, and in the case of GSW built their system around burgeoning, now elite all-time level shooters from 3. We do exploit the paint more instead, but there are some teams we are pushed away from the paint by, like the Grizz or at times Jazz or at times 76ers because their bigs dominate down low.
We were better at 25th in 3s attempts per game this season (compared to last the previous two), and we have a more traditional C (who has no post moves, mind you) and that combination has been exploited time and again in the playoffs -- see Gobert on the example of a team that takes a ton of 3s, or the Bulls on the other end (last in 3s attempts) whose 2s-dominant O also got exposed.
There are other styles of play which serve as a contrast and a study: Bucks won with an elite-level talent in Alphabet (who sucks from 3 but can make them and has improved his poor FTs) who split playing time 60/40 at the PF/C, but even he was surrounded by multiple release valve 3s shooters, including Portis, the other C who also hits 3s. Even Lopez has gone from not taking any to being able to make some.
Nuggets have an elite-level C around whom their system functions. Yes they haven't won it all but they were severely hampered missing two other significant players who each are release valves around Jokic, each of whom are shot creators and take 3s. So does Jokic.
Grizz are a modern young team filled with players up and down the roster who take 3s, save for that grizzled old veteran Adams (he's 28 lol).
So now we ask: do we surround a non-3s shooter with elite 3s at a higher volume or should we go after the younger bigger C who already has a broader skill set and higher ceiling? Is that not worth paying more for? And especially given the new tv deal that's coming up which is expected to raise the cap? (And if the question is then posed that we can absorb a bigger contract for Jakob, then, again, how much more is it worth for us to pay given his O ceiling?)
The other related increased timeline is DJ. We have now heard his name in trade rumours two summers in a row. There's a SA Express article out today which outlines that in two years DJ will be eligible for a max contract whose first digit starts with a "4".
Is it any wonder we keep drafting guards? lol
I really like DJ and very much appreciate his role on our team (weirdo hiccups of 'I work too hard to be losing' posts notwithstanding), but man oh man do I not want any part of DJ on a LaVine-like contract. If we're not willing to pay LaVine that now, and if in two years we're not contenders, why would we dish that money out on DJ?
The contenders thing then becomes an issue. We're closer to it with Ayton than with Jakob given the make-up of our team and style of play. We don't have enough good distance shooters and we don't have a boring 40 3s attempts per game style of play to both justify a bigger O role for Jakob or pay him far more for a largely similar role to the one he plays now.
Plus for all the 'Why don't the Spurs tank for a top pick!' cloud yellers, well there's more than one way to acquire said talent - we have positioned ourselves right now to acquire just such a talent! Ok he is not on the Jokic/Giannis/Embiid level, but then again we're not paying him that at a max either. Assuming we were to land him, the END of his increasing contract would still be lower than what DJ's next contract would START at, AND Ayton would be finishing his contract at the age DJ would be getting his next one.
All of which is a confusing way to say that Ayton's age aligns better with the younger core group we are developing. If we happen to hit a sweet spot and be contenders in two years and think it's worth it to extend DJ for a chance to put all our chips in, fine.
But we certainly get there faster with more talent that opens up opportunities to play more varied styles rather than work around known limitations that can actually either be actively exploited at the most crucial times.
I'm not even against re-signing Jakob if we strike out on Ayton, or trading him at some point for other talent. It doesn't have to be Ayton. But when the opportunity presents itself for a talent upgrade - and we're in the talent upgrade phase of our rebuild - and we have positioned ourselves with the cap space to do so, you have to go for it.
Really like Jakob, but we'll be paying more for a player whose ceiling is also pretty much known, much like with Derrick. The only IF for me with Ayton is his coachability like I said before, but I think he'll give more if he's given a bigger role - a sign of appreciation to reciprocate.
And with DJ's next contract on the horizon with us getting more talent and balance to the roster, well time will tell whether our best option is to re-sign him to a ridiculous contract (sorry, still don't see him as the best player on a contender, and that's where that money should go, even if I understand the concept of using our own money for our own FAs) or to trade him for a collection of talent and assets that betters our club.
Either way, we have some options now. Signing Ayton IS that opportunity to expedite improving our team. One of them anyway. And I don't think it would hamper us because we're still loaded with small contracts, short contracts, and talent in DJ (and whoever else we identify) all of which can be consolidated to bolster the roster and the assets cupboard.
p.s. In our 50th Anniversary season (and coming off 26th in the league in attendance, rare for us), I think we ought to make a little noise where we can, expedite with some good cap use ie/Ayton without sacrificing rebuild development; just bring up the gear a bit without skipping steps.
