Post#18 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:24 am
My vote:
Player of the Year
1. Steph Curry (GSW)
2. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
3. Jayson Tatum (BOS)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
5. Jimmy Butler (MIA)
HM. Joel Embiid (PHI)
HM. Luka Doncic (DAL)
HM. Jaylen Brown (BOS)
HM. Draymond Green (GSW)
HM. Andrew Wiggins (GSW)
In the end, picking Curry isn't a tough choice for me here, but it has to be understood that I was coming from a perspective where Curry was one of my Top 3 MVP candidates (along with Jokic & Tatum), so he didn't have to run up that high of a hill.
Through the year I kept pointing to Curry's +/- data, both relative to the league and relative to teammates, and saying "I know he's not been shooting his best after the hot start, but the impact is still there." I also said at the time that I didn't think Curry could maintain this kind of an impact in a playoff series if he didn't have some exceptional games - in the end, if you're getting beat by massively committing to stopping Curry under the theory that if you didn't he would kill, might as well dare him to kill you. But kill playoff opponents he did.
And then there's the defense where I just can't emphasize enough that in the modern NBA, there is no hiding a bad defender. If your playoff opponent decides to attack Player X, then there's a direct linkage between that player's effectiveness and your DRtg. If they aren't able to kill you with that approach, then that defender is fundamentally a solid defender. And that's how Curry held up the entire time despite teams over-attacking him to tire him out so that his offense might not kill them (Ha!).
I love, love, love Jokic, I think he's done tremendous work on his body, I know his teammates are weak on defense (and offense) right now, and I know the Warriors were a great offense...but man, I really was hoping we wouldn't see the Nuggets have yet another series with a 120+ DRtg. With it happening again, I have still have confidence issues when I look at Jokic as the man to lead you to the chip. I want to see enough evidence that this doesn't weigh on me as a significant concern...but I'm still waiting on that.
I spent a lot of time comparing Tatum & Giannis' seasons and consider it to be possibly the most frustrating player comparison of this season. Fundamentally: I think Giannis is the better player, but I think Tatum had the more accomplished season from October to June. So for anyone looking at me putting Tatum above Giannis and thinking I'm overthinking this, well, just no that I fully expect this vote of mine to not age well to those who look at it later.
Even putting Tatum over Giannis for the regular season goes against the general MVP conversation, but there I think things are pretty clear. Simply put, Tatum played significantly more in the regular season, in part because he and his team took the regular season more seriously than the Bucks did...and the Bucks holding a bit back also led to a pretty major drop in offensive performance (that I do not think can be justified based on things like the absence of Brook).
Then we get to the question of what it takes for a playoff performance to flip two guys on my list. In general, there's no rule that I actually feel comfortable laying out for "what it takes", but I will say that when the two teams actually plays each other in the playoffs, the team that wins is the one with the guy on it who had the regular season edge, and that player had an outstanding series.
Here's where I'll remind that in Game 6, when the Bucks had a chance to clinch the series at home, Tatum went for 46 points on huge efficiency while playing more than anyone else on either team and with a massive +/- (+21) ten points higher than anyone else in the game.
With the way the Warriors series left people seeing Tatum, I think people need to remember is a hell of a player who had a hell of a season.
For the 5th spot, this was Embiid's at the end of the regular season and I was really reluctant to put Butler over him but read some good cases. While my estimation of Embiid's performance this year didn't really drop due to the playoffs, the fact is that Butler just seemed the more remarkable player when push came to shove.
Now as I say this, there are the matter of Embiid's injuries plural, which he came back from and played through. It really can't help but be the case that those injuries hurt his POY candidacy and above I didn't mean to imply that it didn't matter at all...but I still felt fine thinking of Embiid primarily through the lens of him being a (slightly overrated) MVP candidate, and going forward, while he needs to watch what he says about his teammates, I can't help but admire that he came back and managed to help his team win a couple a games against the Heat.
The 7th and final serious contender for a spot here is Luka, who continues to feel like a tornado that might destroy all the buildings in the metaphorical town that is the NBA. You just see the offensive approach involved and realize that if Luka and his teammates can just get some percentage better, that'll be all she wrote. Of course, that's literally true ("some percentage") of all teams, but with Doncic, it feels like it could happen *right now* basically whenever I watch him.
I generally do 5 honorable mentions for POY to get to 10 names, but I'll say that I reserve the right to wiggle room in the back 5. I'm not necessarily taking a stand that these guys are the 8th through 10th best of the season, but they seem the most worthy of mention.
First, Brown. In some ways he's a way to shout out another Celtic on a team that had tremendous success this year as a unit. While a number of Celtics had great years, Brown remains the 2nd most valuable Celtic across the season and I don't think it's that close. Additionally, while I feel a need to defend Tatum because of the negativity going his way after the finals, I'm glad that the feeling toward Brown is more positive, because he deserves it. He's not a player without weaknesses, but this is a guy who is a force no matter the match-up.
And finally, shout outs to Curry's two most valuable teammates this year: Green & Wiggins. Green is a guy whose impact at this point can't remotely be captured by why he physically does on the court - the Warrior defense this year was elite despite missing him for a major chunk of the season because of the culture that he's been leading on this team for years resonating with a new generation - and yet still he always seems to be the quickest brain on the court and seems to be able to use his non-superstar-prospect body to be just perfect for almost any situation. Wiggins is a guy who took a major leap forward with the Warriors, and particularly these playoffs showed what he was capable of like we only ever imagined before.
Offensive Player of the Year
1. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
2. Steph Curry (GSW)
3. Luka Doncic (DAL)
HM. Kevin Durant (BRK)
HM. Trae Young (ATL)
I was never able to get to a point where it was clear to me who to pick between Jokic & Curry here and ended up sticking with the order I had them after the regular season.
Jokic is an in-moment genius the likes we rarely come across. A rival with Draymond for the fastest brain in the game, but with an outside-of-the-box creative element that goes beyond mere proficiency. Jokic is the type of offensive player that just makes the game look different that it does when everyone else is playing. Add to that what an exceptional shooter and scorer he's become, he really does have a case for the Offensive GOAT right now...but I would really would like to see him carry it all the way through the 4 rounds of the playoff gauntlet before I actually feel comfortable saying that.
In the other corner, we've got Steph. Quite possibly, when all is said and done, the most influential player of the 21st century, and the most influential since George Mikan. The scale of his influence doesn't mean he's the most valuable player (though perception of the latter will in time influence the former), but we just got to see what something like the Final Form of the Kerr offense looks like. Not as deadly as it was in the KD years of course, but this is showing how strong this approach can be even with a drop off in teammate talent.
For years people have gotten the impression that Kerr's approach is more fragile than hero ball, but the reality was always that when run with a team that's mastered it, it's fundamentally anti-fragile because more than anything else it's built to train players to be able to rapidly change approaches on a possession level, and read & react within the possession itself. The confusion came because it a scheme alone cannot ensure the players are able to execute to perfection 100% of the time. So then people saw the team trip, and went with a bit of a broadly cynical interpretation about what it said about the unorthodox team. I've long pushed back against this, and now I'm a broken record so I don't want to belabor the point.
But suffice to say that there's absolutely a case for Curry being the more proven resilient offensive force in the playoffs as of this moment, and that makes me feel uneasy even keeping Jokic ahead of him.
For the 3rd spot, I saw Luka as a fairly straight forward choice. To me his season-long achievement is quite a ways back from the Top 2, but I can't honestly say I see anyone else who struck me as a more effective offensive player when all is said and done.
Honorable mention is often a place to put the names you seriously considered, but in this case I had to scour around the NBA to think of others most bringing up.
Mentioning KD always seems pretty reasonable. While I think it's important not to overstate the achievement of a player on a team losing in a sleep, my god did Boston have to put a ton of pressure onto KD with just the right defensive personnel to keep the Nets from an even higher ORtg. KD's no joke.
Went with Trae for my last HM. He was on my ballot at the end of the regular season and while the disappointment against Miami really hurts, he's still looked damn good against every other playoff or play-in team he's faced. Young is an incredible offensive player.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Draymond Green (GSW)
2. Marcus Smart (BOS)
3. Jayson Tatum (BOS)
HM. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
HM. Rudy Gobert (UTA)
Wow, toughest award of the year for me, and one I kept rethinking as I circled around making this post longer than I original thought I would.
The top spot wasn't the hard part. For me, that's definitely Dray.
Simply put, I've felt like Green was the best defender in the world in general since he first took the basketball world by storm in '14-15, and I don't see any reason to change my mind now. He's the smartest defensive player, and I think the most effective defensive leader, in the game by a significant margin.
If you're wondering how his missed time in the regular season factors in for me: Easy to overlook win you have enough playoff success that year. This gets into the realm of philosophy. I'm always trying to think about how the year will get looked back upon by those with distance that isn't trapped in the moment, and while there are things that I think they should remember that they won't...there's other stuff that I largely just accept. The reality is that a player who is awesome in the regular season until an injury who then comes back and is similarly awesome helping lead his team to the championship is going to get his achievement analyzed in terms of what he was able to do on the court rather than by the fraction of the year he was there.
Okay, the rest of the ballot is the blood bath.
I alluded to it above but I feel like I'm going to look ridiculous not having Giannis higher than I do...but it's important to me when analyzing the year's achievement to look beyond "Player A is still the best though, right?". I believe Giannis reached a different level in the playoffs and it's very impressive what he did, but his playoff rise means he's rising from some other level in the regular season, and that means we have a question of how much you have to do in the playoffs to make that all that matters. I feel like I needed more to justify this, and so Giannis remains on the outside looking in here.
Of course, I made the choice to fill the last two spots on my ballot with Celtics. It would have been very voter-y to spread the love picking one guy from the Celtics and then having Giannis or Gobert for the other spot, but in the end, I went with the Boston D Party? (How do y'all feel about that name? Pun-credential is impeccable, but, eh, probably not...)
Here I think I need to start out by talking about the Celtics as a defensive collective that figured something out together this year and became the best defense in the league over the back half of the year. The coach deserves a lot of credit, and the roster is stocked with defensive talent no doubt...but they had to learn some things to get where they got, and I don't think you get that without the guy everyone else on the roster pointed to as the leader of the defense, and the one who should be considered for DPOY...Marcus Smart.
With Smart I see someone who is about as good at his individual defensive job as I can expect a guy to be, who has proven able to stand up to match-ups (like Giannis) I would not expect a guard to be able to handle, and who is constantly adding value through communication by being the guy who knows what's going on before (most) anyone else. Further, there's the matter of the fact that Smart taking on the role of the previous weak point of the defense (point guard) is central to how this all works. All of this makes me inclined to accept the team suggestion that Smart deserves the most consideration, but there is someone else on the roster who seems likely to have contributed the most total on-court defensive value this year, and that is Tatum.
Tatum's been mostly an after thought because everyone's been so quick to marvel at Robert Williams - and understandably so, he's the one on the roster I'd be looking to build my defense around going forward, but I just think his missed time resulted in him not having much of a case over these other two. But nobody plays more for the Celtics, and there's no question that the Celtics want him out there in order to achieve their best defense in general. Plus, I mean, the stuff we saw from him in defending Durant was incredibly impressive.
Before I leave the East Coast, I will also shout out Al Horford. To be perfectly honest, if it were Horford that the Celtics had said was their DPOY, I'd have a hard time not singling him out the way that I'm singling out Smart. As impressive as he was though, it's easy to forget that Horford is not at his physical peak anymore, and didn't look anything like a top tier defender when he left the Celtics. I have considerably more confidence that Smart would be an outstanding defender on any team anywhere.
Okay, finally Gobert. I went back and forth putting him on my ballot. The question ends up having a lot to do with what you see the purpose of DPOY for. As I tend to emphasize, to me it's about achievement this season. Others can have a bit different priorities (so long as they are focused on what they saw the player do this season), but when it comes to achievement we get this question:
If the player who is best at X isn't in a situation where he's successfully able to lead effective X, is he having the greatest achievement at X?
Consider this question:
When was the last time Gobert had a playoff series where his on-court DRtg was better than what the average regular season opponent managed against the team he's playing?
Answer: 2019.
It's not just that the Jazz have stopped being elite on defense, it's that despite the fact that the Jazz remain a better than average regular season defense these past 3 seasons, in the playoffs they haven't been even when we ignore the time Gobert is on the bench.
Now, folks can come to their own conclusions about whether being on a consistently below average playoff defense is enough to preclude the player in question from being seen as the DPOY, but what feels inescapable to me is this:
At this point, the rest of the NBA knows how best to mitigate for Gobert's defensive influence, they attack it confidently, and they largely succeed by league-average standards when they do so. That opponent success does not mean that Gobert's defensive achievement has reduced to nothing, but it takes a toll.
Also, for context, when I use that word "mitigate", this is also the word I've used for describing what I see happen to Artis Gilmore over his career. While there was never a time where he wasn't valuable on defense, it really seems to me that over time opponents found a way to function against him that in effect reduced his defensive impact from mega-DPOY level, to something much more mild.
I fear that this is happening with Gobert in a way I just don't with other major established defensive stars at this time.
Rookie of the Year
1. Evan Mobley (CLE)
2. Scottie Barnes (TOR)
3. Cade Cunningham (DET)
HM. Herb Jones (NOP)
HM. Franz Wagner (ORL)
This was Mobley vs Barnes for me. In the end, if this were a situation where I let most time played break the time, my pick would be Barnes...but there's never been a time this season where I've changed my mind about which player impresses me more. It's close enough I've debated it a good deal, and with Scottie being an atraditional defender, it's possible I underrate what he's doing out there...but I find the defensive instincts of Mobley to be stunning for a one & done rookie big.
Despite the fact that I've had Cade in the 3rd spot basically the whole time, I'll tell you that I very seriously considered Herb. Were I to give a Most Valuable Rookie award, I may well put Herb in the top spot, but as I've discussed, there's more that I feel I need to consider when discussing ROY.
The reason why leagues have awards for non-elite players (ROY, MIP, 6MOY) is to direct attention somewhere, where that attention may end up really benefitting the league down the road. As such, when we look at rookies and we compare one guy in a star primacy role and another in a clearly auxiliary role, I think it's wise to effectively curve their grades based on the difficulty of the role they are in.
If you don't do that, then you run the risk of giving the ROY to someone like Landry Fields, who simply landed in the perfect spot as a rookie, and would in time prove to not really be someone who could stick in the NBA...as is often the case for 2nd Rounders after all.
So, this gives someone like Cade a leg up over like Herb for me. It doesn't mean I'll never have an Herb first, but it would generally be do to the Cade actually seeming like something of a flop as a rookie. And while Cade started slow, and I don't think he was more impressive than Mobley or Barnes, I still think he looked pretty dang good as a rookie.
Shout out to Franz for the 5th spot. Fun to see what next year brings for his team.
Most Improved Player
1. Darius Garland (CLE)
2. Desmond Bane (MEM)
3. Jordan Poole (GSW)
HM. Ja Morant (MEM)
HM. Tyrese Maxey (PHI)
I've been really loving Garland, aka Sleeve Nash, all season, which should come as no surprise if you know my long-time Nash obsession. I don't feel like there's that much to say here other than: Garland is an incredible offensive player, and I could see him getting OPOY attention in the future.
Bane is actually someone I've been thinking about more recently. While teammate Ja is clearly the outlier as a physical specimen - and one of the most fun players to watch move ever - I think Bane basically has to be seen as the MVP of the Grizz this year, and that's really something for a man who didn't start last year. His raw +/- numbers make him look like an absolute monster as well...but there are indicators that there's some luck involved in this, and I'm not prepared to argue based on basketball merits that he really is THAT good. If I were, he'd be my MIP over Garland. As is, I'm only comfortable with him at #2.
I'm going with Poole in the 3rd spot, and it's something that in the end isn't about specific statistical improvement. Bottom line is: This year Poole became the 3rd Splash Brother hitting more 3's this year than in the rest of his NBA career combined before hand. This is a really, really big deal.
Shout out to Maxey who really looks like the 76ers' perimeter future now.
6th Man of the Year
1. Gary Payton II (GSW)
2. Jordan Clarkson (UTA)
3. Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL)
HM. Tyler Herro (MIA)
HM. Otto Porter (GSW)
Alright you bastards, you got me. I was not expecting to have Payton even on my ballot, but now with all said and done, after good arguments brought up on his behalf, I'm joining the bandwagon.
In the end, one of the objective things that sold me here are his WS/48 numbers, which led the NBA Champion Warriors in both the regular and post-season. Those numbers on their own would have made Payton a candidate here, but I can't deny that Payton popped on the screen for me like very few others and his presence in the NBA Finals felt like something more than just "a bench player". His year felt special - more special than the other guys mentioned - and I'll give it to him.
Other two slots going to obvious 6MOY candidates who were fundamentally solid, and then the first HM goes to another such guy with a rougher playoffs.
Finals HM goes to Porter, who like I said before, I expected to be my 6MOY candidate from the Warriors.
It's going to be interesting how well the Warriors are able to keep this depth going forward. Back during their first run, their supporting cast gradually hollowed out, which is what I think you have to expect is the norm in the age of a salary cap. Can they keep the important pieces together this time? For how long?
Coach of the Year
1. Steve Kerr (GSW)
2. Ime Udoka (BOS)
3. Taylor Jenkins (MEM)
HM. Erik Spoelstra (MIA)
HM. Jason Kidd (DAL)
This is Kerr for me very easily. He's been building something completely different from the rest of the league the entire time he's been coaching, now we see how it truly pays off. Kerr's doing this was a major advantage with his loyal core of Steph/Klay/Dray of course, but everyone knew those guys existed prior to this year and yet by and large, said everyone was not expecting the supporting cast to look as sharp as it did.
Udoka had one hell of a rookie year as a coach. Worthy of COY in his own right.
Giving the 3rd slot to Jenkins, who coached the surprise 2nd best team of the regular season, and then seemed to give the eventual champs their toughest fight despite having their star player injured midway through the series. While I do think the Celtics too were better than the Grizz when all was said and done this year, very impressive how far Memphis has come.
Spoelstra ends up just missing my ballot. Full respect to him as one of the best coaches in the game, and another year from him that was quite impressive.
Executive of the Year
1. Brad Stevens (BOS)
2. David Griffin (NOH)
3. Masai Ujiri (TOR)
HM. Arturas Karnisovas (CHI)
HM. Daryl Morey (PHI)
Going in reverse order this time:
There were plenty of good moves made this year, but no moves that in and of themselves made me think, "That's it, that's your EOY right there!" Morey makes my list as an HM, and he made a move that seemed like it might end up being perceived like this...but at least to this point, it's really not clear whether Morey's fixation on ol' Beardy was wise. At the very least though, he got rid of BS.
My other HM is someone who topped my EOY list early in the year, and the key thing here is his DeRozan acquisition. When I'm against a move - like acquiring DeRozan - and I end up concluding that I was way wrong and the GM was way right, I tend to want to shout praise in their direction. The thing is though, in the end, the season basically ended up like I expected it would - with the Bulls going out, offering not too much of a challenge, in the first round. This time of result doesn't feel like EOY worth stuff to me. I think you should be aiming hire even if you're a small market, and Chicago ain't no small market. Nevertheless, I've always liked the Lonzo & Caruso moves, and DeRozan & Lavine worked quite harmoniously together. Pretty good work from Arturas all things considered.
Masai gets my 3rd spot for continuing to do things that impress me which don't have any obvious Bull-like ceiling. I'm typically careful about giving a GM too much EOY love for a guy they just drafted, and that is limiting Masai here too, but I think he deserves praise for drafting Barnes when most would not have. His signing of Trent was good as well.
I'm really shocked that Griffin ends up #2 on my ballot. I was someone far lower on Griffin than most on these ballots back when he was with the Cavs and LeBron simply decided to sign with his team. I'm also someone who lambasted Griffin for letting Lonzo go, and was among those who thought Griffin was on the verge of being fired - and that that would be a justifiable thing.
While I still think letting Lonzo go was a mistake, the Pelicans came to life this year through a number of Griffin's moves. His new coaching hire, Willie Green, looks great so far. His draft picks of Jones & Alvarado worked remarkably well. His trade for McCollum & Nance now seems like what the 76ers should have taken to get rid of Simmons. While I'm still a bit skeptical of Griffin, I cannot deny that he had a year that deserves serious consideration for EOY.
But in the end, I'm going to side with Stevens. When I look to evaluate EOY candidates, one of the things I'm always thinking about is how much the GM's moves would give me confidence to hire him. If a guy made a move that turned out great, but I don't think he could have known how well it would turn out - like, say, drafting a superstar in the 2nd round - I try not to be carried away.
The thing about Stevens this year is he made moves where it really seems clear he knew what he was doing. He effectively fires himself as a coach, and brings in a smart, former player with an ethos that allows him to actually call out his players. He gets rid of the 3rd all-star point guard acquisition the Celtics got since drafting Marcus Smart, just gives Smart the job, and it works great. His biggest player acquisition was a player (Horford), the team had previously let walk (looks like we know how coach Stevens felt about that now). Even a small move like White was targeted, and very effective.
Part of me feels absurd giving Stevens more RealGM award love when we already perhaps gave him too much as a coach, but he's given me a lot of confidence in his GMing abilities this year.
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