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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1821 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 17, 2023 10:49 pm

payitforward wrote:Deni is 22 not 23. OTOH, Kuzma is 28 not 27.


Yeah I had Deni and Butler inverted, as Butler turns 23 this month.

The average age of an NBA player is 26.1.
The average of the current Washington Wizards players is 25.4.
...

The process has just started. But, for the moment, we are not a very young team overall. E.g.:

The average age of the current New York Knicks players is 24.05.
The average age of the current Cleveland Cavaliers players is 23.73.
The average age of the current Indiana Pacers players is 24.1.


Right, young with a few veteran role-players salted in. I like that mix for teaching young players. Instead of loading up on raw projects and prospects and hoping eventually they figure it out, while battling each other for PT. You want vets who know their role and can teach young pups to be ready. Wright, Gallo, Gill, Muscala, all know their role and execute well even off the bench. I think a player like Bilal can soak up lessons from each of them.

Though I'm expecting Gill to be cut, which is too bad since he is a good example for the rest of the roster. Though maybe it comes down to a training camp battle between Gill and Cooks.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1822 » by payitforward » Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:13 am

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:...The average age of an NBA player is 26.1.
The average of the current Washington Wizards players is 25.4.
...

The process has just started. But, for the moment, we are not a very young team overall. E.g.:

The average age of the current New York Knicks players is 24.05.
The average age of the current Cleveland Cavaliers players is 23.73.
The average age of the current Indiana Pacers players is 24.1.


Right, young with a few veteran role-players salted in. I like that mix for teaching young players. Instead of loading up on raw projects and prospects and hoping eventually they figure it out, while battling each other for PT. You want vets who know their role and can teach young pups to be ready. Wright, Gallo, Gill, Muscala, all know their role and execute well even off the bench. I think a player like Bilal can soak up lessons from each of them.

Though I'm expecting Gill to be cut, which is too bad since he is a good example for the rest of the roster. Though maybe it comes down to a training camp battle between Gill and Cooks.

Somehow I didn't finish my thought.
We are not all that young overall, yet despite Cleveland's younger average age, the team only has one guy under 22, while we have 4 -- 5 if you count Vukcevic.

It's a metric of how early in the process we are.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1823 » by AFM » Fri Aug 18, 2023 2:21 am

payitforward wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:...The average age of an NBA player is 26.1.
The average of the current Washington Wizards players is 25.4.
...

The process has just started. But, for the moment, we are not a very young team overall. E.g.:

The average age of the current New York Knicks players is 24.05.
The average age of the current Cleveland Cavaliers players is 23.73.
The average age of the current Indiana Pacers players is 24.1.


Right, young with a few veteran role-players salted in. I like that mix for teaching young players. Instead of loading up on raw projects and prospects and hoping eventually they figure it out, while battling each other for PT. You want vets who know their role and can teach young pups to be ready. Wright, Gallo, Gill, Muscala, all know their role and execute well even off the bench. I think a player like Bilal can soak up lessons from each of them.

Though I'm expecting Gill to be cut, which is too bad since he is a good example for the rest of the roster. Though maybe it comes down to a training camp battle between Gill and Cooks.

Somehow I didn't finish my thought.
We are not all that young overall, yet despite Cleveland's younger average age, the team only has one guy under 22, while we have 4 -- 5 if you count Vukcevic.

It's a metric of how early in the process we are.


Now weight them by expected minutes played by age :D
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1824 » by nate33 » Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:02 am

Among our top 6 rotation players, we are equal or younger than NY at every position:

PG Jones(27) - Brunson(27) (in 2 weeks)
SG Poole(24) - Hart(28)
SF Avdija(22) - Barrett(23)
PF Kuzma(28) - Randle(28)
C Gafford(24) - Robinson(25)
6th man Kispert(24) - Quickley(24)

We have a higher average age because we have a handful of low-minute vets over 30 (Gallo is 35, Muscala 32, Wright 31 and Gill is 30). New York has no vets in their twilight pulling up their average age. The only guy on NY older than Randle is Fournier (30).
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1825 » by doclinkin » Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:39 am

payitforward wrote:Somehow I didn't finish my thought.
We are not all that young overall, yet despite Cleveland's younger average age, the team only has one guy under 22, while we have 4 -- 5 if you count Vukcevic.

It's a metric of how early in the process we are.


Which is why I don't expect the young pups to get heavy minutes early in the season. Most coaches allow players to earn their way into the rotation. So far Wes has done the same. If the FO directs him to play the young pups early then maybe they get unearned minutes, but generally coaches coach to win. Otherwise how do they learn?

Our probable starting 5 is built around developing players with 2 in their prime.

PG Jones 27
2G Poole 24
F3 Deni 22 or Kispert 24
F4 Kuzma 28
C Gafford 24

bringing veteran relief off the bench:

PG Wright 31 or Shamet 26
2G (Kispert or Shamet)
F3 (Kispert or Deni)
F4 Gallinari 35 (or Deni)
C Muscala 32

Depending on the situation at starting 3, and back-up 2, there's room in the rotation for a young player to seize minutes. If Kispert is the first sub at guard it opens up play time for Bilal in the 3 spot. I expect despite his youth the team will give him every chance to solidify a role in the rotation early.

At 4, Gallo is returning from an injury, will need load management, I expect Deni and Kuz will trade off minutes here to make room for Kispert in various lines, but if Gallo needs rest or rehab (or retirement) there will be a chance for PBJr to snatch minutes. If Baldwin can't beat Xavier Cooks or Anthony Gill then I'd be disappointed, even though he is young with limited experience due to injuries.

The player I have a hard time scripting minutes for is Johnny Davis. He did improve noticeably by the end of the year, still, if he remains an on-the ball guard without an outside shot and no reliable catch and shoot game he doesn't have a role next to either Tyus or Poole. Without advanced passing/ballhandling either, he is limited to being a defensive specialist and hustle player.

If all are healthy then Poole and Jones are going to eat a heavy diet of minutes at guard, Poole both on and off the ball. Behind them the line is long for players waiting for that spot. We need defense next to Poole but that role is filled better by Wright who has shown an NBA 3 ball. I bet the pecking order is Kispert/Wright (depending whether Kispert starts at 3 or is the 6th man at both 2&3 spots), Shamet, Davis, Butler, Rollins. I expect Johnny D can leapfrog Shamet with even a passably improved jumpshot, but that still puts him behind 4 players until/unless Wright is traded or one of the others is load managed/resting/unavailable.

That said Wes found minutes for Jordan Goodwin as a hustling madman. I don't bet against Johnny D becoming one of those players coaches turn to to set an example of relentless work ethic. The defensive teacher's pet, as yin to the yang of the offensive version in Kispert.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1826 » by payitforward » Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:38 pm

doclinkin wrote:...I'm expecting Gill to be cut, which is too bad since he is a good example for the rest of the roster. Though maybe it comes down to a training camp battle between Gill and Cooks.

If that's how the problem is worked out, then for sure Gill is the most likely to be cut. & I agree that it's a shame, as he is pretty effective within his limits. You don't usually find a guy that far down the bench who's actually as useful as he is.

All the same... you can put a question mark after the name of every single guy on the roster. I probably have more confidence about Coulibaly's future than anyone else.

To put it another way, we are at the very beginning of a process that will refashion the team. & I'm a believer...

Makes it fun to be a Wizards fan again!
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1827 » by payitforward » Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:04 pm

nate33 wrote:Among our top 6 rotation players, we are equal or younger than NY at every position:

PG Jones(27) - Brunson(27) (in 2 weeks)
SG Poole(24) - Hart(28)
SF Avdija(22) - Barrett(23)
PF Kuzma(28) - Randle(28)
C Gafford(24) - Robinson(25)
6th man Kispert(24) - Quickley(24)

We have a higher average age because we have a handful of low-minute vets over 30 (Gallo is 35, Muscala 32, Wright 31 and Gill is 30). New York has no vets in their twilight pulling up their average age. The only guy on NY older than Randle is Fournier (30).

Oh absolutely! If you average the ages of Coulibaly & Gallinari, you get 27 -- not much information in that number! :)

Plus, if you look at the very youngest end of their roster, there are a bunch of long shots (Keels & Martin in particular).

Plus, we are at the very beginning of a process intended to create a team that can win a title. We'll keep getting younger.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1828 » by PerkinsFor3 » Thu Aug 31, 2023 5:34 pm

What does Gafford's position in this graph tell you?

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1829 » by AFM » Thu Aug 31, 2023 6:44 pm

It's a little bit surprising. I definitely wouldn't call him a shot creator so i don't know what criteria they use to decide what's a created shot. He definitely was at his best when Westbrook was feeding him.
Mostly our issue with Gafford isn't his play, it's his foul rate and endurance.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1830 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 31, 2023 7:59 pm

PerkinsFor3 wrote:What does Gafford's position in this graph tell you?

Read on Twitter


Only that he is a highly efficient scorer, since all he does is dunk. I think he consistently is on the leaderboard in 2FG%, hitting a ridiculous 73% of his shots last year.

The 'shot-creation' aspect includes offensive putbacks (averaging ~ 4 per 36 minutes over his career). About 40% of his touches are offensive boards. Here effectively the shot was created by his teammates shooting blanks. And Westbrook 'fed' him the most by taking and missing so many shots. Teams loaded up on Russ knowing his first 2nd and 3rd choice was to dribble and attack, which left Gafford open to snatch the ricochets.

But yes he is a danger if you hit him with a lob, or a pocket pass on the pick and roll. The biggest flaw in his game is not that he can't hit a jumper, its that he does not yet know how to stick a hard screen and gets called for offensive fouls when he shuffles his feet trying to roll too early. Some of the smartest bigs to play the game knew that you could get more passes from the ballhandler if you smeared their defender with a hard pick before you release to the basket. You set yourself up for the assist if you simply commit to the pick or screen. Force your defender to jump to trap the ballhandler, while you have eliminated the smaller pursuer as a threat.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1831 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 31, 2023 9:43 pm

All true, but still... the higher the % that go in the better. So, within his limitations, we should (& do!) give Gaff his due....
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1832 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 4, 2023 2:26 am

https://www.nbcsportswashington.com/nba/washington-wizards/wizards-news/how-daniel-gaffords-role-could-change-and-expand-in-2023-24/496613/

Last season, Gafford was 18th in the NBA in total screen assists (240) with Porzingis at 31st (184). Porzingis is now in Boston, while the next player on the Wizards' roster in that category was Gafford's projected backup, Mike Muscala, who ranked 104th in screen assists (55). Though Danilo Gallinari could be an underrated resource there (he was 103rd in screen assists two years ago), much of it is naturally going to fall on Gafford.

On top of that, the Wizards added some players this offseason who ran a lot of pick-and-rolls last year. Jordan Poole was the ball-handler for 472 pick-and-rolls last season with the Warriors and that was 140 more than anyone on the Wizards' roster initiated (Bradley Beal led the team with 332). Tyus Jones ran nearly a hundred more pick-and-rolls last year (318) as the Grizzlies' backup than Monte Morris did as the Wizards' starter (220). If head coach Wes Unseld Jr. decides to incorporate more of those actions to adapt to his new personnel, then someone has to set the screens.


Right. I've been saying this for a bit. We need screeners. I like seeing how hard Gallinari is working on his rehab. Here in DC grinding away. I have seen him set picks and screens and make them stick. Hopefully Kuzma can pick up the skillset from him as well, maybe with Kuz working on strength over the summer he will be willing to use that muscle to spring free other ballhandlers instead of trying to run the offense himself as a primary initiator. Odd that you don't see him running the pick and roll given his height and the speed advantage he has against most Bigs. Seems to me Euroball player like Deni ought to have an advanced pick/screen game as well, both on ball and off to spring players in motion. Picks and screens help teams that don't rely primarily on elite athleticism to get open shots.

But ultimately we are going to see Gafford in this role a half dozen times a game. He should be wearing hockey pads with all the body checking the team will need from him. Jones and Poole are both dangerous with the ball, Jones especially so when working with an athletic front court player.

This is an area that could be a strength if we had someone to teach it. If the team lets the young pups play, I could see players like Johnny Davis, Bilal, and Jared Butler learning to set tough guard screens to spring players like Kispert and PBJ. Kispert takes full advantage of having any space to get his shot off. PBJ looks smooth with a high release and long arms, but his shot is slow to chamber. (Maybe that is why he hasn't shot all that well? Aside from the knee rehab of course).

I expect Gill goes back to Europe, but he does set screens. Likewise that is a key part of Cooks' game, and given how shallow we are at center (and how limited his game is otherwise) I can see him playing some small ball even despite being significantly underweight for the position. He won't stop any giants, but if we can run them off the court with superior speed, XCooks will have a role. Speed is one of the assets we do have:

There are a few reasons to believe the Wizards could play faster this season than they did last year when they ranked 17th in pace (possessions per 48 minutes) per Basketball Reference. New general manager Will Dawkins comes over from the Thunder, who were sixth in pace and 12th in fastbreak points last year. The Grizzlies were second in pace with Jones in the mix and the Warriors were 13th with Poole in the fold. Though Ja Morant and Stephen Curry contributed to those rankings, the Wizards' new backcourt will feature guys who are used to that style of play.

Jones was also 15th in the NBA last season in percentage of points on the fastbreak (21.9%) and boasted an impressive 1.28 points per possession (PPP) on transition plays, which accounted for 20% of his offense. Being good in transition is a trend for the Wizards' projected rotation. Corey Kispert was 10th in the NBA in PPP (1.41), while Kyle Kuzma was 13th in transition plays per game (4.2, 1.08 PPP) and Poole was right behind at 14th (4.1, 1.12 PPP).

None of them, however, were quite as good as Gafford, who was the most efficient player in the entire NBA on transition plays at 1.66 points per possession. The more the Wizards run, the better it will be for Gafford who is fast for his position and, of course, has a knack for finishing around and above the rim.


Deni in Turbo mode, Kuzma relative to other 6'10" guys, Gafford, Poole, Jones, Xavier Cooks, Kispert with his quick trigger, ditto Shamet, Coulibaly with his effortless long strides and lob threat athleticism. We should be able to play fast. Run on every play. And we have competent ballhandlers at most positions. If we can force misses and grab rebounds so much the better, but even on a made basket, whomever gets the ball should just throw the outlet pass while everyone else takes off running.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1833 » by nate33 » Tue Sep 5, 2023 5:52 pm

doclinkin wrote:
PerkinsFor3 wrote:What does Gafford's position in this graph tell you?

Read on Twitter


Only that he is a highly efficient scorer, since all he does is dunk. I think he consistently is on the leaderboard in 2FG%, hitting a ridiculous 73% of his shots last year.

The 'shot-creation' aspect includes offensive putbacks (averaging ~ 4 per 36 minutes over his career). About 40% of his touches are offensive boards. Here effectively the shot was created by his teammates shooting blanks. And Westbrook 'fed' him the most by taking and missing so many shots. Teams loaded up on Russ knowing his first 2nd and 3rd choice was to dribble and attack, which left Gafford open to snatch the ricochets.

But yes he is a danger if you hit him with a lob, or a pocket pass on the pick and roll. The biggest flaw in his game is not that he can't hit a jumper, its that he does not yet know how to stick a hard screen and gets called for offensive fouls when he shuffles his feet trying to roll too early. Some of the smartest bigs to play the game knew that you could get more passes from the ballhandler if you smeared their defender with a hard pick before you release to the basket. You set yourself up for the assist if you simply commit to the pick or screen. Force your defender to jump to trap the ballhandler, while you have eliminated the smaller pursuer as a threat.

I've been meaning to opine on this for a while but have been too busy.

I think Gafford might be underutilized.

It may be true that all he does is dunk, but we can't overlook that he has an uncanny ability to dunk through whomever is in his path, which allows him to dunk an awful lot. Gafford doesn't just score as a roll man. When he gets deep position and gets the ball, he has a way of gathering, maybe pump faking once, and just dunking through anyone that is guarding him. It's not exactly a post-move per se, but it's effectively the same thing. Get him the ball in the deep post, and it's a bucket.

Offensively, the numbers say that Gafford is more than just a Tyson Chandler/Mitchell Robinson/DeAndre Jordan tier micro-usage, high efficiency scorer. Those guys also had a TS% north of 69%, but posted a USG% in the 13-15 range, which is not enough to make much difference. When Gafford played full time center in 2020-21, his USG% was 18.9%. And in games last season that Porzingis wasn't in uniform, it was 18.0%. That's pretty meaningful. In 2020-21, he averaged almost 11 points in just 17 minutes a game. Give him 28 minutes in that role and that's 18 points a night at a TS% of 70%.

With Porzingis gone, it'll be real interesting to see how Coach Wes utilizes Gafford. Wes wasn't here during Gafford's best season alongside Westbrook, but as I pointed out above, Wes did witness Gafford finding a way to get his usage up in the handful of games he played without Porzingis. Wes is well respected as an X's and O's guy. Maybe he'll find more ways to get the ball to Gafford in deep post position. And as Doc points out, Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Kuzma and Deni are going to run a lot, Gafford surely fits in with that style.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1834 » by doclinkin » Tue Sep 5, 2023 9:07 pm

nate33 wrote:
I think Gafford might be underutilized.

It may be true that all he does is dunk, but we can't overlook that he has an uncanny ability to dunk through whomever is in his path, which allows him to dunk an awful lot. Gafford doesn't just score as a roll man. When he gets deep position and gets the ball, he has a way of gathering, maybe pump faking once, and just dunking through anyone that is guarding him. It's not exactly a post-move per se, but it's effectively the same thing. Get him the ball in the deep post, and it's a bucket.

Offensively, the numbers say that Gafford is more than just a Tyson Chandler/Mitchell Robinson/DeAndre Jordan tier micro-usage, high efficiency scorer. Those guys also had a TS% north of 69%, but posted a USG% in the 13-15 range, which is not enough to make much difference. When Gafford played full time center in 2020-21, his USG% was 18.9%. And in games last season that Porzingis wasn't in uniform, it was 18.0%. That's pretty meaningful. In 2020-21, he averaged almost 11 points in just 17 minutes a game. Give him 28 minutes in that role and that's 18 points a night at a TS% of 70%.

With Porzingis gone, it'll be real interesting to see how Coach Wes utilizes Gafford. Wes wasn't here during Gafford's best season alongside Westbrook, but as I pointed out above, Wes did witness Gafford finding a way to get his usage up in the handful of games he played without Porzingis. Wes is well respected as an X's and O's guy. Maybe he'll find more ways to get the ball to Gafford in deep post position. And as Doc points out, Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Kuzma and Deni are going to run a lot, Gafford surely fits in with that style.


I think one key for Gafford will be developing chemistry with Tyus Jones. That and always having a reliable 3pt shooter on the wing.

Looking at Tyus' most efficient line-ups with the Grizzles, he had the best effect when posted on court with at least one reliable outside shooter. He especially played well when a ranged big like JJJ or Santi Adama was opening space for him. This allowed pass-dependent players like XTillman or Brandon Clarke to get free for unimpeded dunks and putbacks.

Tyus often will penetrate and pull-up for a floater. It is a reliable enough shot that Bigs have to step out to challenge. A floater becomes a lob when the paint open for your front court teammate to crash the boards. Even better when there's a single big in the paint and the other is chasing the stretch 4/5 around the perimeter.

You could envision this working with some combo of Tyus + Gafford alongside one of Gallo/ Kuz on a hot streak/ Muscala even, or maybe the pre-injury version of PBJ. Tyus plus catch and shoot gunner Bane had a similar effect, which bodes well for Tyus/Kispert or Tyus/Shamet line-ups.

Jones also knows how to efficiently run the pick and roll game or hit a player coming off a screen/roll. This last especially should work with the wrinkles that Wes has shown with Gafford screening for Beal.

It's tough to tease out similar stats for the Warriors with Poole, since he often played with Stef, who skews all stats for everyone. I don't see a pronounced bump in eFG% for Looney next to Poole though, nor an uptick in assisted goals. Reports are Poole was gunning last year trying to do too much by himself. Trying to prove himself again I guess. Still, you do occasionally see him sling a sweet pass underneath when his attack is blunted and the backdoor player crashes. Given Poole's willingness to pull the trigger from any place and any angle, I think there will be offensive putback chances the way Gaff had playing next to Russ. If Poole and Gafford also develop chemistry it bodes well for the team.

Those two are going to have the ball a ton to initiate the offense. How Gaff works off of them will be key to his game, and the only way he increases his usage since he is unlikely to play the Porzingis role of initiating from the top of the key.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1835 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 11, 2023 10:52 am



I can picture Gallinari in most of the actions run through Porzingis/Huff in these clips. As Kuzma does at times as well. It'd be helpful if players like PBJr can learn from this.

I like that we get Bilal this young since he seems like he'll be an excellent fit in all the cuts to the paint once he gets comfortable.

Poole does look like he can slot in to Beal's role, if he can trust that he'll get the ball and commit to offball motion. The touches will be there.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1836 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:57 pm

Oof, in reading an article on the Clippers dilemma at PF, the writer cited the stats of Marcus Morris last year after the AS break, saying he was just outside the 5 worst players in catch-and-shoot 3's of all players who took at least 2 per game.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/catch-shoot?CF=CATCH_SHOOT_FG3A*GE*2.0:GP*GE*10&SeasonSegment=Post%20All-Star&TeamID=0&dir=A&sort=CATCH_SHOOT_FG3_PCT

Checking the stats I see Kyle Kuzma was the #10 worst in this stat. But he pitched up 4 per game. Nobody else in the bottom 10 put up more than 2.8 per game.

Hah, and he will be mentoring Patrick Baldwin, who was the 15th worst in the league in this stretch. But at least PBJ was a rookie. He has an excuse.

Hopefully Tyus Jones gets to decide who gets the ball and when, rather than Wes giving keys to the Kuz as the captain of the offense. Which, given that these are catch-and-shoot stats, should be the case. Fake to Kuz, kick it to -- basically anyone else. Mike Muscala, say.

Or I guess as captain of the tank command, maybe that should be the plan. Feed Kuz all the shots. Gun away Kyle, see what you can do.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1837 » by nate33 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 8:27 pm

doclinkin wrote:Oof, in reading an article on the Clippers dilemma at PF, the writer cited the stats of Marcus Morris last year after the AS break, saying he was just outside the 5 worst players in catch-and-shoot 3's of all players who took at least 2 per game.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/catch-shoot?CF=CATCH_SHOOT_FG3A*GE*2.0:GP*GE*10&SeasonSegment=Post%20All-Star&TeamID=0&dir=A&sort=CATCH_SHOOT_FG3_PCT

Checking the stats I see Kyle Kuzma was the #10 worst in this stat. But he pitched up 4 per game. Nobody else in the bottom 10 put up more than 2.8 per game.

Hah, and he will be mentoring Patrick Baldwin, who was the 15th worst in the league in this stretch. But at least PBJ was a rookie. He has an excuse.

Hopefully Tyus Jones gets to decide who gets the ball and when, rather than Wes giving keys to the Kuz as the captain of the offense. Which, given that these are catch-and-shoot stats, should be the case. Fake to Kuz, kick it to -- basically anyone else. Mike Muscala, say.

Or I guess as captain of the tank command, maybe that should be the plan. Feed Kuz all the shots. Gun away Kyle, see what you can do.

It's a pretty small sample size. Kuzma got hurt and missed 13 of the final 25 games of the season. That chart you posted only shows him playing in 11 games post All-Star Break. (He actually played in 13, so, go figure.) He was pretty middle-of-the pack pre-All-Star Break over a much larger sample size of 53 games (about 40th percentile). He ranked 87th worst out of 225 on the list, with a .353 shooting percentage.

Kuzma needs to get better at catch-and-shoot, but hitting 35% is... adequate. He's not good enough to be a weapon with that shot, but he is good enough that teams won't just ignore him.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1838 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 26, 2023 5:17 pm

Listen... last year, Kyle Kuzma was a complete disaster on offense.

Not just shooting, where he was quite bad. But if you add in turnovers & then credit back for offensive boards, the result is, quite simply, a nightmare.

Let me illustrate:

Every 40 minutes, Kuz produced 6.15 more points than an average NBA forward.
To get those extra points, however, he used 6.54 more possessions than an average NBA forward.

Just for clarity: if, as a team, you needed 6.54 possessions to score 6.15 points -- if that's how good your offense was -- you would be lucky to win 10 games in a season.

As well, in that same 40 minutes, Kuz also turned the ball over 1.5 more times than an average NBA forward.
So now, the extra 6.15 points came at the cost of just under 8 extra possessions.

Of course, a player can offset some of those turnovers by giving his team more possessions -- via extra steals & offensive rebounds. Unfortunately, Kuz did the opposite! He produced 1 fewer of that combination (offensive boards & steals combined) than an average NBA forward.

IOW, the 6.15 extra points Kuz delivered in 40 minutes actually cost the team just under 9 possessions. @.66 points per possession.

QED: Kuz was "a complete disaster on offense" last year. He was the single most significant contributor to our bad record.

Was he our worst player? No -- Dotson, Johnny Davis, Bouyea & Todd combined for 500+ minutes that were worse. But, obviously, those minutes didn't hurt us as bad as did Kuz's 2239 minutes.

That said, I continue to predict a turnaround season for Kuzma in '23-24. I'm confident he'll be terrific.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1839 » by doclinkin » Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:56 pm

BY way of counterpoint to Kuz being a "complete disaster". While it didn't show in his individual stats, and is perhaps countered by his TO's by some metrics he made the team better by creating better chances for his teammates.

Read on Twitter
/photo/3

Maybe he was only an incomplete disaster.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1840 » by wewillnevertank » Fri Sep 29, 2023 5:16 pm

doclinkin wrote:BY way of counterpoint to Kuz being a "complete disaster". While it didn't show in his individual stats, and is perhaps countered by his TO's by some metrics he made the team better by creating better chances for his teammates.

Read on Twitter
/photo/3

Maybe he was only an incomplete disaster.


The context matters, too. When you have a team full of guys who struggle to self-create, and Brad only playing 40 games, someone had to pick up the playmaking slack, even if that means the occasional high-turnover game. I would think that with Poole giving us more than 40 games (knock on wood), some of that playmaking pressure on Kuz abates a bit. And if Deni can give us more driving left, that opens up the offense more, too.

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