Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[daSwami]

Looks like there may be as many or more teams in lose now (i.e., tank) mode, than there are teams trying to make the play-offs, which might work in our favor, which is why I'm sticking with my 82-win prediction.

[doclinkin]

This team played real good defense after the McGee trade and before Okafor's arrival, so I don't see why they can't do so again.

[hands11]

I'm sticking with my 44 win prediction just to buck the trend. This team played real good defense after the McGee trade and before Okafor's arrival, so I don't see why they can't do so again.

I really do think that Seraphin will play MUCH better than last year and will actually be a viable rotation player. I think he'll be better than what he was in his 2nd year when he posted an ORtg of 105 and a DRtg of 105. This year, I expect more like an ORtg of 108 and a DRtg of 104, which will make him a rock solid player and really round out the rotation.

If Wall plays 75+ games and Nene plays 2000 minutes, we will make the playoffs.

Yeah, Kevin is set up well for some on court improvement. Easily with in his reach. And I like the support system in place around him to help him get there.

Preseason should help us understand what some of the important piece will be able to do. Things like hearing what Ted said about Nene helps. He said he was sprinting up and down the court. But I want to see it. Those are huge factors. Seeing Kevin aggressively rebound is another. Seeing what Ves looks like out there matters. If he has swag and will actually shoot the ball and make some FTs, that another +1. And Al and Maynor. And they are supposed to be running more on offense. Those are keys between 40 wins and being in the 44-45 range.

I'm still at 45 for now. Need more info before changing that up or down a little.

[pancakes3]

Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Yeah, Toronto with 48 wins and Indy at just 43 doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.

What jumped out to me is how the 66-win Heat grades out at 55 wins. Brooklyn with their patchwork of aging superstars is possibly even MORE underrated seeing as how they're slated for 37 wins but I have a hard time seeing them win less than 50. The dysfunctional Lakers cobbled together 45 wins, the Nets can definitely pull out 50.

However, to get to the real headscratcher, I went next-level nerdy and added up the wins. The total wins is 1280.8 but there are only 1230 wins to go around, which means the list overestimates wins. Even with overestimation of wins, the Heat and Nets are STILL (imo) undervalued in terms of wins. Point is, don't expect 10 western conference teams to end up above .500. That, or Phoenix might end up with -10 wins on the year.

[montestewart]

Wow Cleveland at 28 wins? Toronto at 48? Philly and NY at 38? Lots of questionable predictions here...

Yeah, Toronto with 48 wins and Indy at just 43 doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.

What jumped out to me is how the 66-win Heat grades out at 55 wins. Brooklyn with their patchwork of aging superstars is possibly even MORE underrated seeing as how they're slated for 37 wins but I have a hard time seeing them win less than 50. The dysfunctional Lakers cobbled together 45 wins, the Nets can definitely pull out 50.

However, to get to the real headscratcher, I went next-level nerdy and added up the wins. The total wins is 1280.8 but there are only 1230 wins to go around, which means the list overestimates wins. Even with overestimation of wins, the Heat and Nets are STILL (imo) undervalued in terms of wins. Point is, don't expect 10 western conference teams to end up above .500. That, or Phoenix might end up with -10 wins on the year.

I tried to find some text to go with that chart. It's not clear to me who created it. Maybe it's a work in progress. It doesn't precisely match other projections I see on WoW.

[nuposse04]

51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

[montestewart]

51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

That's some bold talk, but it would be pretty cool. I'm persuaded by nate33's view, and I'm going to wait a little and see what happens in preseason before I decide to downgrade from 44.

[nuposse04]

51 and we'll win a playoff game before the redskins.

That's some bold talk, but it would be pretty cool. I'm persuaded by nate33's view, and I'm going to wait a little and see what happens in preseason before I decide to downgrade from 44.

well I originally said 50...which is total homer talk, and while I think the emeka loss is significant depth wise...the blind fan in me has to believe in some irrational hope, and that hope is that Seraphin averages 10+ rebounds per 36 this season. I mean I'm probably a younger fan on here, been watching NBA ball for about 15 of 25 years of life and have allotted 14 of those years to this soul sucking franchise. Logic probably says my prediction is bull ****, but logic would also ask me why I root for the wizards.

Even if they do end up with like 39 wins this season I still think they win A playoff game (not a series) before the skins win a playoff game. That secondary is atrocious.

[The Consiglieri]

Last season I think I ended up going with 32 or 33, and we won 29. This year I was projecting 45-48 wins before the injuries started piling up. Now we lack depth and talent in the front court, while having some interesting options in the back court. I suspect overall the team will be better than last year if Wall, Beal and Nene can stay healthy, none were able to last year, and as such, were a 29 win squad. Subtract Oka, but add healthy Beal, Wall, and Nene, and the wins should uptick, but how much? I suspect the squad will have a ceiling total of about 42, a floor of about 30, and I'd project about 37 wins. We'll see how it plays out. I'm curious. I believe we blew the offseason with the Porter pick, and the Webster overpay, but managed to land Glen Rice Jr which was a huge value get in the early 2nd round (potential top 10-15 talent from that draft) in my view.

So I'm going with 37-45 for now, and slotting in at 8th-10th in the conference, projecting us to pick somewhere between 11th and 14th overall, and considering the depth and talent in the draft, that would be like picking top 5-8 this past year, maybe 4-6.

[closg00]

Jan Vesely appears set to be the first player to replace Okafor in the starting lineup alongside Nene, but Kevin Seraphin will also get ample opportunities. Trevor Booker has gradually increased his workload but remains doubtful for Tuesday’s preseason opener against Brooklyn.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... k-in-neck/

For your consideration when making your predictions.

[Illuminaire]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

[nate33]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

Nene is pretty much the only guy that can make up for Vesely's inadequacies. The good thing about Nene is that he can do the work of a center on defense, and the work of a power forward on offense (allowing Vesely to do the work of a PF on defense and the work of a center on offense). If Vesely must play, then I agree that it makes the most sense to have him play alongside Nene (and Wall).

I don't expect Vesely to play many minutes though. I can see him getting the first 6 minutes of each half; Booker coming in off the bench quickly to replace him for a relatively long stint, with Seraphin joining Booker at center; and then Randy going with Nene and Harrington in crunch time rather than risk putting Vesely back on the floor. So it'll look like this:

Start: Vesely/Nene
6 minutes in: Booker/Nene
9 minutes in: Booker/Seraphin
18 minutes in: Harrington/Nene

Repeat in second half. Ariza can replace any of our PF's at any time if match-ups let us get away with smallball.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, Vesely should be on the floor with Nene and Wall. He might be a net positive that way, strangely enough.

[deneem4]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

[hands11]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

Nene is pretty much the only guy that can make up for Vesely's inadequacies. The good thing about Nene is that he can do the work of a center on defense, and the work of a power forward on offense (allowing Vesely to do the work of a PF on defense and the work of a center on offense). If Vesely must play, then I agree that it makes the most sense to have him play alongside Nene (and Wall).

I don't expect Vesely to play many minutes though. I can see him getting the first 6 minutes of each half; Booker coming in off the bench quickly to replace him for a relatively long stint, with Seraphin joining Booker at center; and then Randy going with Nene and Harrington in crunch time rather than risk putting Vesely back on the floor. So it'll look like this:

Start: Vesely/Nene
6 minutes in: Booker/Nene
9 minutes in: Booker/Seraphin
18 minutes in: Harrington/Nene

Repeat in second half. Ariza can replace any of our PF's at any time if match-ups let us get away with smallball.

Still think it going to be AH and Kevin together for the 2nd line up. Not counting Booker in the rotation until I see him healthy for more then a week.

And I think Nene at center on offense is better then Ves so Nene is center on offense and defense with Ves. Let Ves run around the perimeter setting pick and rolling to the basket from Nene passes for dunks.

[hands11]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

Actually, as long as Okafor can return by January and Nene doesn't get hurt in the mean time, Okafor out is going to be a blessing. Its going to give Kevin and Ves and even Booker, if he can stay healthy, a chance to get minutes and prove themselves. If Okafor was there, Randy would probably start Nene and Okafor and the minute for those player would be more limited.

This way, when Okafor returns, the team will just gain that depth and have more options. And they have a vet Okafor heading into the playoffs when they need more toughness.

So yeah, if everything goes right, they could win a lot. But how often does everything go right ?

[deneem4]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

Actually, as long as Okafor can return by January and Nene doesn't get hurt in the mean time, Okafor out is going to be a blessing. Its going to give Kevin and Ves and even Booker, if he can stay healthy, a chance to get minutes and prove themselves. If Okafor was there, Randy would probably start Nene and Okafor and the minute for those player would be more limited.

This way, when Okafor returns, the team will just gain that depth and have more options. And they have a vet Okafor heading into the playoffs when they need more toughness.

So yeah, if everything goes right, they could win a lot. But how often does everything go right ?

Yea I kno...I actually like the youngers guys playin it definitely can do nothing but up theyre value since they have no value at all...

When okafor comes back I think it jus going to giv nene more rest till playoffs

Im very optimistic about this season, I jus hope we can get healthy and stay healthy

[Dat2U]

BTW, FWIW, I sit next to a person affiliated with the Wiz organization. He said he would be shocked if Okafor makes it back this season.

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

[Upper Decker]

BTW, FWIW, I sit next to a person affiliated with the Wiz organization. He said he would be shocked if Okafor makes it back this season.

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

I listened to the most recent ball hogs wizards podcast and they made it seem like it won't be a full-year type thing, but if it is they're doomed. Wittman will ride Nene to the ground. EG will make a desperate trade and sacrifice real assets or future cap space for a marginal player.

You know what wouldn't surprise me would be a Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis, which in a vacuum isn't totally terrible, and it migth help EG keep his job, but it'd be a franchise destroying trade because the team would be just good enough to not get a high pick and they'd essentially be pissing away their future cap space.

[Dat2U]

Big Baby Davis isn't saving anyone's season tho. My worry is EG giving up a real asset, however I suspect he'll try to make a marginal move such as Big Baby and we'll still end up with as few wins as would of had without him.

I have little faith in EG making a competent deal that will lead to more wins.

Right now, if Okafor is really gone for season... I think 37-38 wins is the absolute best case scenario where Wall breaks out, Beal & Nene all have excellent seasons and Webster/Ariza come close to duplicating what they did last year. If Nene goes down for any significant period of time, you can knock about 10-12 more wins off the best case scenario of 37-38.