Teams are already expecting the Dodgers to pay more by virtue of having more as it is and they're now counting on pressure and expectations from frustrated fans and observers into panicking the front office to make a move when there's really no reason to do so. The Dodgers are one of the few big-pocket teams not to spend big yet. The Cardinals have stood pat as well and both organizations are still positioned well to make moves once free agents realize frenzied demand for their services have died down. Likewise, the market for pitching--both on the free-agent front and trade market--has been more tempered even if asking prices have not yet been lowered to more reasonable levels.
In any case, like the delaying of Dave Roberts' introductory press conference to a more practical date, it really doesn't matter when the official signing of Hisashi Iwakuma takes place since we know that a commitment has been agreed to by both parties. Otherwise, why would Iwakuma take himself off the market while the number of potential suitors diminishes with every new signing? I'll concede a concern could entail health issues with regards to his physical, but if that were the case, I would think the agreement would be voided or otherwise adjusted. While losing Iwakuma would be unexpected, we would not have to give up a first-round pick and there are still pitchers available to pursue in Leake, Kazmir, Chen, and Maeda. Having said that, the lack of activity by the Dodgers has increased the importance of having a healthy Iwakuma on our staff.
Also, while the Dodgers are widely projected as currently 3rd best in the NL West, an ESPN Insider piece using 2016 ZiPS projects the team to win the division by 2 or 3 games as of Monday before the 3-team trade.
I also want to touch on another point. There have been concerns expressed about the Dodgers having to cut payroll. A financial analyst for Forbes estimates that the organization has incurred over $85 million in operation losses since Guggenheim Baseball Management bought the team and anticipates for it to continue to lose money again this year. However, the team has invested heavily in the current international signing period and was expecting to spend more on Greinke's return as well as trading for Chapman.
It is understandable why the organization would want to limit their spending to wise investments whether they are free-agent signings or trading for big-money players, especially when presented with the chance to reset the luxury tax penalties. However, the Dodgers have yet to show any reluctance to spend whenever it is warranted. The Dodgers were not alone in not wanting to grant Greinke a 6th year on his contract (see Giants) nor were they alone when they didn't offer to sign Cueto to the big-money deal he eventually got (see Cardinals).
In fact, everyone still expect the Dodgers to make a big splash in the free-agent class of 2018 when names like Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey as well as Clayton Kershaw among others could become available.
Now with regard to the trade, my initial reaction was that I hated the deal, but I now find it underwhelming for a couple of reasons. First, while Jose Peraza may be a diminishing prospect in the eyes of many talent evaluators, he was still considered the highest rated prospect in the trade even if Frankie Montas has the higher upside. Second, with the Indians, Royals, and White Sox also in pursuit of Todd Frazier, the Dodgers came up with the most appealing package for the Reds...in order to send him off to Chicago.
I acknowledge that the overall package of White Sox prospects is better than the package of prospects the Dodgers gave up, but I'll argue that the alternatives were more appealing.
One of my biggest pet peeves of this front office is that it can be too smart for its own good at times. I appreciate the collective intelligence of the Dodgers' front office. I like its creativity with out-of-the-box thinking. I applaud it's thorough and deliberate approach to gathering possibilities and evaluating scenarios. I even respect the secrecy with which it operates. It's just that it also has a tendency to try to fix things that don't need fixing.
Case in point, trading away All-Star Dee Gordon in order to "improve" 2B with Howie Kendrick. It goes without saying that I like **** Hernandez, Chris Hatcher, and Austin Barnes but the depth they provide does not match up to what Dee could have provided for us as a mainstay at the keystone position with excellent defense, speed, and table-setting offense. Yes, I'm aware of Dee's lack of walks but he would have been the best option we would have for the top of the lineup. which is a role that's still not filled capably.
Also, trading away Andrew Heaney, a prospect who could have been of value now in building up prospects packages for the big-game hunting of young pitchers, for the departed Kendrick only adds insult to injury. Part of the reason, I was attached to Peraza was the hope that he could reasonably approach Dee's contributions. Apparently, that doesn't look likely with his two previous teams writing him off so quickly.
Still, Peraza is young at 21 and was at least defensively capable at 2B for the Dodgers and wasn't really given a chance to grow with hamstring injuries sidelining him late last season. The fact remains that the Dodgers have now traded two second-baseman away to teams who respectively valued them highly: Gordon in Miami and now Peraza in Cincinnati.
Part of my frustrations with this trade and the Dodgers is that the organization seems quick to give outsiders more of a chance to succeed than its own young players. Mike Bolsinger was doing a pretty good job as the 5th starter, but that didn't stop the front office from bringing in Mat Latos. I already referenced Gordon who gave way to Kendrick before briefly giving Peraza a shot. Even Corey Seager would not have played much at all last season if it were not for the injury to Jimmy Rollins.
Speaking of Latos, the Hector Olivera trade has now yielded us Luis Avilan, Alex Wood, and let's just say Frankie Montas as well as the disastrous experiences of the aforementioned Latos and Jim Johnson. Overall, the trade worked out well in recouping value from the miss of signing Olivera, but the Latos component of that deal was unnecessary, especially since it cost us a compensatory B draft pick.
I'm not at all attached to either Scott Schebler or Brandon Dixon, but I'm not sold on either Micah Johnson or Trayce Thompson, especially since both will begin the season 1 year younger than Jason Heyward as older prospects. While Johnson has the better on-base percentage, more power, and similar speed to Peraza as well as the advantage of batting left-handed to get a quicker start out of the batter's box, he is a bad defender at 2B and in the OF. He's also had leg issues in the past. Johnson couldn't win the 2B job with the White Sox, so how can he be expected to do so here? He looks to be of most use as a pinch-hitter and pinch-runner.
Thompson is noted for his athleticism, physical build, and recent improvement but he doesn't look to be more than a utility outfielder. His success in the Majors was measured by a small sample size, so it remains to be seen how well adjusted he'll be once MLB pitchers have time to figure out his tendencies. While he can play all 3 outfield positions, he's more suited in the corners. Admittedly, he does have an outside chance to realize more of his attractive potential, but as another older prospect, time is running out for him to do so.
At least Frankie Monta represents the highest upside among all the prospects traded. I've seen comparisons to Ken Giles and Pedro Baez. He's got a legit chance to be a starting pitcher as stamina doesn't seem to be an issue for him, but consistency with his pitch delivery remains a work in progress. He looks to be a good prospect and close to being ready as a relief pitcher with closing potential, so it may behoove the organization to cut his time short developing as a starter, but it has yet to do so for the likes of Grant Holmes, Chris Anderson, Josh Sborz, Jharel Cotton, and maybe Ross Stripling. All of whom are near-ready as relief pitchers but ways away from being starters, if at all. Monta has had knee issues in the past due to his excess weight, so it is imperative that he maintains his waistline.
While I have no problem with Monta currently being ranked as the 4th best prospect in the Dodgers' farm system, Johnson doesn't belong in the top 10 where he currently resides and Thompson looks more reasonable in the early 20's rather than in the mid-teens where he's currently at. The truth is I would have preferred not to have either one of Johnson or Thompson if we could have nabbed RHP Spencer Adams in their place. Adams was ranked right behind Montas at 4th overall in the White Sox's farm system even if he was outside the top 100 of all organizational prospects.
With regard to Todd Frazier, I considered him the best player in the deal and it would have been fun to watch him team up again with Joc Pederson as former Home Run Derby finalists in the Dodgers' outfield. I'm under no delusion that Frazier is a complete solution. He, like Pederson, struggled in the 2nd half of the season but not to the extent of Joc's struggles. Frazier's defense at 3B would have provided insurance in case Turner wasn't fully recovered from surgery or re-injured himself. He is also considered a good clubhouse leader.
Friedman mentioned that the Dodgers considered him at another position outside of 3B, presumably left field, but deemed that it was too risky for getting messy. Excuse me? This coming from a front office that basically told the players to suck it up and play despite complaints about Yasiel Puig. Or how about attempting to trade for Aroldis Chapman when it caused some turmoil with existing closer Kenley Jansen? Not to mention that the World Champion Kansas City Royals pursued Frazier to play LF for them. Yeah, his defense at 3B may have been wasted in the OF but I'm fairly certain he would not have been as big a problem as Friedman implied.
Plus, with the Indians also in pursuit of Frazier, what more could we have added to that package to get either Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar out of Cleveland? The Indians were said to have wanted major leaguers, so how about Frazier, Andre Ethier + offsetting cash, Grant Holmes and filler for Carrasco? I think it's fair to assume that the front office did its due diligence in pondering such a scenario with the Indians, but I'm curious how much further, if at all, the Dodgers would have needed to go in order to make this trade happen.
You guys know how much of a hoarder I am of draft picks and prospects, but this haul did very little to increase the overall depth of our developmental system. Getting Frazier would have alleviated, if not negated, the need to pursue an outfielder in free agency even after we (hopefully) trade Ethier and/or Carl Crawford. We'd also still have Scott Van Slyke and Scott Schebler. Again while I'm not particularly high on Schebler, he's major-league ready as an internal Ethier replacement.
In the end, I've come to terms with losing Peraza and am hopeful we can package all 3 of the newcomers in a separate trade package. Montas does add to the selection of pitching prospects that can be packaged in a deal for a young #2 starter, but contrary to what Friedman implied, his addition alone doesn't make me comfortable in trading away Julio Urias or Jose DeLeon. I'll also re-iterate that, like Seager, Urias still should not be dealt. Urias is poised to becoming the top overall prospect in baseball soon and, as it stands, he's currently ranked 4th overall.
Nobody would or should trade Byron Buxton, Seager, Lucas Giolito, or Urias for 3 years of Jose Fernadez, especially since he'll be on a restricted pitch count for 2016 due to his recent TJ surgery. At the same time, having a stable that now includes DeLeon, Montas, Alex Wood, Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, Chris Anderson, Zach Lee, Ross Stripling, and Joe Weiland to choose from should entice teams if and when they make their young starting pitchers available. The price tags for Fernandez, Carrasco, Sonny Gray, and Chris Archer may be exorbitantly steep, but I suspect Tyson Ross can be had for a relatively reasonable return.
