2020 Presidential Election (All Serious POVs Welcome)

[GONYK]

Some positive news for the doom and gloomers.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.

Here’s why this is significant: In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes, while the combined Johnson/Stein vote was 223,599. (So Biden getting 47 percent of that third-party vote to Trump’s 20 percent easily overturns that ’16 margin.)

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, while there were 196,656 Johnson/Stein voters. (Again, Biden winning those third-party voters by a 2-to-1 margin reverses that outcome.)

And in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, and the combined Johnson/Stein total was 137,746. (Ditto: Hillary Clinton would likely be president today if she had won those third-party voters by a 47 percent to 20 percent split.)

It’s positive news but comes with a caveat.

And remember, the NBC News/WSJ poll is a national poll; it doesn’t tell us how third-party voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are breaking.

I think this is significant, and coincides with Biden's lead growing in the USC/Dornsife poll that uses the same voters they polled in 2016

[Pointgod]

Compare Trump’s sit down interview with state run propaganda(which Ingraham actually had to save him numerous times) to Biden’s speech today. There’s a stark difference in clarity, leadership and coherence.

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[Phish Tank]

clearly Trump got signs of dementia or post-stroke complications or whatever... his speech is all messed up.

The tiny hands/organed Republicans will still treat him like dear leader, but that's cause they're tiny too.

Too bad the Glenn Greenwalds of the world don't think this is an issue (no wonder he got slapped on live TV)

WTF? nope. -JVG

[Clyde_Style]

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[Pointgod]

I'm thinking this is what Trump will go for... He can afford to lose Pennsylvania and Michigan. He needs Wisconsin and he has an opportunity to flip Minnesota. He will also need one of New Hampshire or Nevada to tip the scale:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/3XjZ6

As for Biden...

I still think Biden shouldn't get cocky about Pennsylvania or Michigan like Hillary did. But I think he can win them. As it gets closer, he will have to decide which states are already lost so he doesn't spread himself to thin and miss campaign time in more key states. I think AZ should be likely Biden. But I think dems and Biden should save Texas, Georgia, Ohio for another time.

I think Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida are the real swing states. Winning Florida will be nice and will effectively take Trump out of the race. But I'm not sure how realistic that is.

Biden will need one of Wisconsin or Minnesota to win, and one of New Hampshire or Nevada.

I think Wisconsin and New Hampshire is the safer bet:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/7w3py

I need to do more research on North Carolina though. But if Biden can manage to win that, he could afford to lose Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/o4Qj9

I do fell North Carolina is going under the radar.

Why do you think New Hampshire and Nevada are in play? This is the first that I’m hearing of this. You’re right Florida is the key to this whole thing. If Biden wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Trump has to defend Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona. And this is with me giving back Minnesota.

Frankly Biden needs to double down in Florida with the message that Trump will take away social security and healthcare. Simple straight forward message (that happens to be true). I’d feel confident about his chances with states that have Democratic Governors. The discussion needs to focus on the economy, covid, healthcare

Those were really close elections in 2016.

Just makes too much sense for the Trump administration to go in on those states since he has to run a more strategic campaign.

New Hampshire is mostly white with decent amount rural areas. Don't be fooled. There such a thing as shy Trump voters. Rain or shine, covid or no covid, they will all vote in person.

And do you not believe that there’s a shy Biden voter or a silent majority of Biden voters? Look at the polling of the military? If I’m not mistaken the military skews Republican right? I don’t know why people would lie to pollsters. People take the wrong lesson from 2016. It’s not who voted for Trump, it’s who chose to stay at home or vote 3rd Party. My other post about third party polling shows the clear margins in the key states. Something like 1 million voters left the top of the ballot blank or wrote in candidates and 5 million people who voted for Obama in 2012 stayed home in 2016. I know for a fact Democrats have been registering and turning out voters over the past 4 years. I haven’t seen a similar plan to grow the base from the Trump campaign. Also what the polls don’t capture are first time voters or disaffected voters coming back to the Democratic Party.

[Stannis]

Not a good a good look:

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Hopefully this is a plan to surprise Trump in the debates

[Phish Tank]

Not a good a good look:

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Hopefully this is a plan to surprise Trump in the debates

google translate will be out in full force during the debates.... except the language will probably be gibberish (in the case of Trump)

[Clyde_Style]

Why do you think New Hampshire and Nevada are in play? This is the first that I’m hearing of this. You’re right Florida is the key to this whole thing. If Biden wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Trump has to defend Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona. And this is with me giving back Minnesota.

Frankly Biden needs to double down in Florida with the message that Trump will take away social security and healthcare. Simple straight forward message (that happens to be true). I’d feel confident about his chances with states that have Democratic Governors. The discussion needs to focus on the economy, covid, healthcare

Those were really close elections in 2016.

Just makes too much sense for the Trump administration to go in on those states since he has to run a more strategic campaign.

New Hampshire is mostly white with decent amount rural areas. Don't be fooled. There such a thing as shy Trump voters. Rain or shine, covid or no covid, they will all vote in person.

And do you not believe that there’s a shy Biden voter or a silent majority of Biden voters? Look at the polling of the military? If I’m not mistaken the military skews Republican right? I don’t know why people would lie to pollsters. People take the wrong lesson from 2016. It’s not who voted for Trump, it’s who chose to stay at home or vote 3rd Party. My other post about third party polling shows the clear margins in the key states. Something like 1 million voters left the top of the ballot blank or wrote in candidates and 5 million people who voted for Obama in 2012 stayed home in 2016. I know for a fact Democrats have been registering and turning out voters over the past 4 years. I haven’t seen a similar plan to grow the base from the Trump campaign. Also what the polls don’t capture are first time voters or disaffected voters coming back to the Democratic Party.

There were a few million undecided voters going into the final weeks of the 2016 election. Comey pushed most of them off the fence towards Trump.

The point of that is there is no such grey area in 2020. You already know what you think of Trump. So both Biden and Trump are KNOWN factors to choose from.

However, Trump represented a blank slate for a fair amount of people who very much had a disgust with politics and figured what have you got to lose voting for a political outsider. Not everyone who voted for Trump fully comprehended the depth of his bigotry in 2016. They know now what he stands for and that means not everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 likes what they signed up for.

Additionally, there is little reason to think anyone who voted for Clinton in 2016 now wishes they had voted for Trump.

IOW, there is far less elasticity in voter opinion that can suddenly favor Trump close to election day.

Trump's internal pollsters know this, hence the extremity of their strategy now, i.e. ignore covid (or now overtly push for mass infections and herd immunity; Fauci is out, new guy in his place) and agitate and create mayhem to push the law and order theme.

That means Trump's advisors already know there is not the same amount of electoral slippage last time so they are not going to win by offering better policies or overtures to logic. Their conclusion is their only hope is to override logic and induce a high enough level of fear in the public in shake loose additional voters who for whatever reason actually believe they'd be safer under Trump.

I think this is going to backfire as more people may feel less safe under Trump and thus ensure any defections towards Trump could be matched by defections towards Biden. I think this strategy will yield zero net votes for Trump or even lose some. And with the hardened opinions of 2020 that does not allow for enough of a swing vote to re-elect him without cheating and attempting the martial law route.

[Clyde_Style]

Not a good a good look:

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Hopefully this is a plan to surprise Trump in the debates

When you post that I suspect you did not watch the speech at all.

I did. That was the ONLY verbal slip up and he recovered from it, so why are you posting this? To spread the meme again?

Everything else about the speech was basically flawless, so I do not see the point of these posts other than to go uh oh! look at what he gave the opposition to work with which is not a good enough reason to be part of spreading it everywhere.

Trump says several stupid things for every single minute he speaks so I find it obnoxious to spread this single bad take from Biden pulled from a 20+ minute speech.

[GONYK]

Compare Trump’s sit down interview with state run propaganda(which Ingraham actually had to save him numerous times) to Biden’s speech today. There’s a stark difference in clarity, leadership and coherence.

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[Clyde_Style]

All of those clips, I mean the guy is clearly a barely functioning cartoon

So what does it say about people who see all of that on Fox News and are still willing to support him?

What percentage of those people say to themselves, yeah he's a buffoon and the stuff he says is wack, but I still feel the GOP represents me better?

And what percentage see that and say right on! you're the man! speak the truth!?

[BKlutch]

The following is an email I got from Bernie Sanders/newsletter. So I don't want to here any @/*&%^$!> from anybody if Biden loses, okay?

Dear Friends,

Yes. These are crazy times. We're dealing with a pandemic, an economic meltdown, the struggle for racial justice and we're seeing the destruction caused by climate change in Iowa, California, Louisiana and Texas.

But, in the midst of all of this, we have got to remain focused, focused, focused. In 65 days the most important election in modern American history will be taking place and we have got to defeat Donald Trump. We have got to defeat him not only because he is a pathological liar, because he rejects science and because he is a racist and a xenophobe. We have got to defeat him because he is undermining American democracy and is rapidly moving this country into an authoritarian type of society, something we may never recover from.

In terms of defeating Trump, one of the issues that has not gotten the attention that it deserves is the real contrast that exists between Trump's economic agenda and the economic proposals being supported by Joe Biden. At a time when our country is struggling with the worst economic meltdown since the great depression, this is an issue of enormous consequence for tens of millions of working class families.

Let me be clear. Biden's economic agenda is not mine and does not go as far as I, and many of you, wish it would. But, on the other hand, at a time of massive and growing income and wealth inequality there is no question but that his proposals are strong and will go a long, long way toward improving life for working families.

Yesterday, I made an important speech about this issue on our social media channels. Let me summarize here what I said about Joe's plans for the economy.

Minimum Wage
When Joe Biden is president, he will increase the federal minimum wage from a starvation wage of $7.25 an hour to a living wage of $15 an hour. And let’s be clear: When we increase that minimum wage to $15 an hour we will be raising the wages of more than 40 million workers.

Unions
Joe Biden also knows that if we are going to expand the middle class in this country, we must make it easier for workers to join unions, engage in collective bargaining and end the heavy-handed corporate tactics that make it hard for workers to unionize in America.

Infrastructure
And here's something else that Joe Biden understands. And that is that, in the midst of the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes, we need to create millions of good-paying jobs through a massive investment in rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure — our roads, bridges, sidewalks, schools, water systems and affordable housing.

Paid Family and Medical Leave
Like most of us, Joe Biden is embarrassed that the United States is the only major nation on earth not to guarantee paid medical and family leave. That’s why Joe has proposed at least 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave for working families.

Childcare
And when we talk about babies and young children, we all know that our current childcare system is totally inadequate. Our children and their parents deserve high-quality, reliable and affordable childcare. That’s why Joe has proposed universal pre-K education for every 3- and 4-year-old in the country.

Colleges
And when we talk about making sure that we have the best educated workforce in the world, Joe understands that we need to make public colleges, universities and trade schools tuition-free for working families.

Prescription Drugs
As some of you may recall, last year I traveled to Canada with a group of diabetics to buy insulin, a life and death drug for more than 30 million Americans. And here's what we found. You can buy insulin in Canada, a few miles from our border, for 1/10th the price that it is sold here. No. You didn't mishear me. The same product, made by the same company, is sold for 1/10th the price that it's sold here. But it's not just Canada and it’s not just insulin. While the drug companies, through their collusion, price fixing and greed, make obscene profits, we pay by far the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs. Joe Biden understands that we must take on the pharmaceutical industry and significantly lower drug prices in this country.

Health Care
As many of you know the United States is the only major country not to guarantee health care for all people. Meanwhile, despite paying almost twice as much per capita for health care as the people of other countries, over 90 million Americans are uninsured or underinsured and over half a million Americans go bankrupt because they cannot afford to pay their medical bills.

While Joe and I disagree on the best path to get to universal coverage, his proposal will greatly expand access to health care and make it more affordable for tens of millions across this country.

My friends, of course many of us wish our campaign would have won the Democratic primary. But now our first priority must be to defeat Donald Trump, the most dangerous president in modern American history.

Then, on Day 1 of the Biden administration, we will mobilize the working families of this country to demand a government that represents all of us and not just the few.

So I am asking you today to do something important — because Donald Trump and the Republican Party would love nothing more than to divide our supporters up as people start to vote. And the truth is, the corporate media would love nothing more than to write stories about how we are not united in the fight to beat Trump.

So I am asking:

Add your name: help me send a message that you are committed to voting to defeat Donald Trump this November. This is important.

We live in the wealthiest nation in the history of the world, but that reality means very little because almost all of that wealth is controlled by a tiny handful of individuals.

This November we take the first step to turn that around and to create a government that works for all of us, and not just the 1 percent.

In solidarity,

Bernie Sanders

Wingo, this is a great email. Thanks for sharing!

However, you know you'll always hear @/*&%^$!> from this board

[Stannis]

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[Stannis]

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It's 10 years old, but they explain on this pollster is one of the worst:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/

[aq_ua]

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It's 10 years old, but they explain on this pollster is one of the worst:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/

I was going to say, that is one of the strangest poll results yet, though the latest pollster ranking shows Zogby as more towards the middle of the pack.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Stannis]

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It's 10 years old, but they explain on this pollster is one of the worst:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/

I was going to say, that is one of the strangest poll results yet, though the latest pollster ranking shows Zogby as more towards the middle of the pack.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

There's this too though

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If Trump can get 20% of the black vote, I think it's over.

[Phish Tank]

It's 10 years old, but they explain on this pollster is one of the worst:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/

I was going to say, that is one of the strangest poll results yet, though the latest pollster ranking shows Zogby as more towards the middle of the pack.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

There's this too though

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If Trump can get 20% of the black vote, I think it's over.

Trump getting 20% of the black vote means either:

1) Around-30-40% of black men support him (if true, then damn....)
2) Black women inched closer towards supporting him (he's at like 5% with black women though)

[GONYK]

I was going to say, that is one of the strangest poll results yet, though the latest pollster ranking shows Zogby as more towards the middle of the pack.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

There's this too though

Read on Twitter

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If Trump can get 20% of the black vote, I think it's over.

Trump getting 20% of the black vote means either:

1) Around-30-40% of black men support him (if true, then damn....)
2) Black women inched closer towards supporting him (he's at like 5% with black women though)

What it actually means is that PollWatch is a Republican Twitter account (it says so in the bio), and it is cherry picking outliers to tweet out.

[Pointgod]

All of those clips, I mean the guy is clearly a barely functioning cartoon

So what does it say about people who see all of that on Fox News and are still willing to support him?

What percentage of those people say to themselves, yeah he's a buffoon and the stuff he says is wack, but I still feel the GOP represents me better?

And what percentage see that and say right on! you're the man! speak the truth!?

The GOP will be will be poorly remembered in history for letting this clown show take control of their party. Trump was neither clever nor brutal. They just rolled over and showed their bellies because they were afraid of mean tweets. If Trump wins they’ll either be remembered for ushering in a new era of authoritarianism and facism or handing over the party to a family dynasty (I’m laughing at people like Nikki Haley and Tim Scott that believe Trump is not going to back Ivanka or Don Jr in a Republican Primary)

As for the bolded I guarantee you that the people won’t actually watch those clips on Fox News. I’ve spent a couple of days following right wing twitter users and it’s entirely different from reality. A lot of people won’t ever watch that video, they’ll just read the click bait headlines or hype from a blue check mark (“Trump calls out Biden Antifa!). It’s all curated misinformation. Contrast that with you and Wingo who will watch that whole Biden speech but can come away with differing opinions.

[GONYK]

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