jredsaz wrote:AtheJ415 wrote:jredsaz wrote:
My trade included DAL 1st 2016, a 1st round pick from 2015 (Hunter) and a early second from 2015 (Mickey). I don't follow your thinking. How is one late first and two seconds from a weaker draft a better haul?
You can't assign first round value to guys picked a year ago who haven't done anything positive. Same with early 2nds. That only works when the other team wanted them in that spot too and is willing to look past the fact that they have shown nothing. For instance, Ben Mclemore has had moments and you won't see him going for a lotto pick.
They are rookies who haven't got any run/opportunity to "show something". McLemore has been in the league three years, recieved ample opportunity, AND he was drafted in the worst draft in a decade.
More importantly, the possible opportunity cost of trading a lottery pick is much larger than that of tading Morris, Tucker, and Teletovic.
That comparison sucks.
The bolded is exactly my point. Rookies who can't make the rotation because they aren't good enough yet to overtake regular role players don't retain value. Also, McLemore may have been in a supposed bad draft (which it really wasn't--see Gobert, McCollum, etc.), but he's still every bit as highly thought of as RJ freaking Hunter, a super late first rounder in a not special draft.
How about Vonleh? How about Thomas Robinson? There are countless, and I mean countless, examples of this. You have to be living on the moon to miss them. Draft picks simply do not hold value when the guy plays 10 minutes a game in a season and shoots 33% from the field and 24.5% from 3. That scenario simply does not exist.
