Here we go boys, you know how it goes. Im not big on imparting much narrative in these, so lets talk about it in subsequent posts, ill drop quick summaries though so you dont go cross eyed trying to make sense of it hah, just my 2c. Anything catch your eye?? Anything you find interesting?? Lets discuss it.
So we played better since Feb 1st, but the bigger shock is how well ORL played down the stretch. Their D ratcheted up and they were very good. Its good to have 2 hot teams playing into the POs, and I dont think its going to be easy with their length.
Team Comps.
Spoiler:
Four Factors TOR. ORL.
MISC. TOR. ORL.
Reb.
Its going to be interesting as our fast break points are good, they are good at reducing them, our transition is going to dictate this series alot I feel. Im not concerned with the volume of OREBs if they wont limit our transition, I think I would take that trade off.
Raps O vs ORL D.
Spoiler:
Finishes TOR.
ORL.
Playtypes TOR. ORL.
Players TOR. ORL.
Some of ORLs defenders individually are not good, but their team defense seems to be very good, I wonder if thats due for a regression. Our strength is transition/shooting (SpotUps), so again it will be interesting to see how that plays out over a series because ORL is pretty good against them.
I think our 1v1 can be an area to exploit heavily, especially when you consider if they arent good vs them, and we have willing passers if they double. I feel our ball movement can kill those rotations. Odd im saying that about a much maligned (around here anyways) style of play. Our 2 man game should be able to be slowed with all their length, but we could see KL/Gasol PnR destroying them in certain match ups/switches.
Raps D vs ORL O.
Spoiler:
Finishes. TOR.
ORL.
Playtypes TOR. ORL.
Players TOR. ORL.
Should we force ORL to shoot, we should be able to beat them easily, they just arent a great shooting team. I just dont see alot of ways for ORL to beat us, unless they force TOVs and get alot of easy buckets, and/or kill us on Cuts.
Defending the top 5 Sets, TOR D vs ORL O.
Spoiler:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cuts defensively arent attributed to defenders. We are 4th in the NBA vs them at 1.203 DPPP
Its interesting in that, we are going to see alot of movement off the ball with ORL, judging by these numbers. I think they are unique in that aspect, so how we defend those actions will be crucial. I think our length/speed on defense should nullify alot of their attack, but given we dont play alot of teams that rely on OffScreens/Cuts, it will remain to be seen.
Benches.
Spoiler:
Now what about the benches?
I think our bench is deeper, but their strength is having TR bomb off of theirs. I just want to see how we roll out our rotation in the POs and how match up specific it is (for both squads) before declaring anything. I feel like the Starters are going to dictate this series and how we stagger them with the bench is crucial, but given how our bench has been down this yr, we could lose some valuable mins in games.
Previous Games against eachother.
Spoiler:
So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups this year. Game 1, Nov 20, 2018, W Raps 93 @ ORL 91. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game 2, Dec 28, 2018, L Raps 87 @ ORL 113. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game 3, Feb 24, 2019, L Raps 98 vs ORL 113 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game 4, Apr 1, 2019, W Raps 121 vs ORL 109. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given how little stock I put in RS season games influencing the POs, I dont derive much from this stuff. All blow outs except the first game of the season vs each other.
More MatchUp Stats.
Spoiler:
Four Factors (OPP = ORL). MISC (OPP = ORL).
ADV Stats. TOR.
ORL.
On/Off. TOR
ORL.
SportsVu Shot Stats. TOR.
ORL.
Skills and FVV have struggled against ORL, should be something to watch for, I think we all like Isaacs D, so him being healthy will help them alot in terms of neutralizing Skills.
More Media Guide Stuff.
Spoiler:
Conclusion: Raps in 5. I think the Raps are just too good defensively, and they are going to slow ORLs hot offense. Its going to be telling how we run our transition, thats whats going to interest me most, and to see if ORL tries to get back or crash the OREBs to counter it. I dont see many avenues for a ORL series win or taking 2-3 games, but if any team gets hot shooting, its trouble.
Also ill try to bump this with anything I find of interest, although I think I covered most of what I wanted.
Disclaimer: If all your going to do is type "_____ sucks", "tl;dr", etc.. please dont participate in this thread, thanks. I dont care about the And1s, or "thank you's", so please by all means participate. Perhaps I missed things, made errors, maybe you can drop some insight I may have missed, its what made last few yrs threads great. We as a group identified all the things the Wiz 2 yrs ago and the Raps last year needed to win, and they did it.
The Bench/Starter stats per possession are where I am looking.
We outright shoot more 3pters than the Magic, and more FTs. - expecially our starters compared to theirs, but bench is almost a wash with Orlando having the edge slightly.
To me, nowadays, it really comes down to which team makes more 3pters most of the time, so we should have this in the bag.
quality post as always vvv. agreed that their xfactor off the bench is tross bombs away, will see how we counter and perhaps norm can help negate that impact.
I'm wondering if their hot streak takes into account the number of crappy teams they faced down the stretch. If you look at their wins, good ones against GS, Philly and Boston.
But then like a good 10-12 against sub-par to terrible teams.
Mikistan wrote:The Bench/Starter stats per possession are where I am looking.
We outright shoot more 3pters than the Magic, and more FTs. - expecially our starters compared to theirs, but bench is almost a wash with Orlando having the edge slightly.
To me, nowadays, it really comes down to which team makes more 3pters most of the time, so we should have this in the bag.
I feel like our bench defense makes up for the hot/cold offense they have. Norm, OG, Ibaka.. hell even FVV has an eye for passing lanes and can shut it down sometimes.
As long as our bench plays smothering defense while they're on the court and make sure the opposition doesn't fill the score sheet while some or all the starters are resting, we good.
Turnovers leading to second chance points have been an issue at times for us, if we can tighten that up, this is a monster of a team.
Signed with team T.W.O for the 2022-232023-242024-25 season.
Mikistan wrote:The Bench/Starter stats per possession are where I am looking.
We outright shoot more 3pters than the Magic, and more FTs. - expecially our starters compared to theirs, but bench is almost a wash with Orlando having the edge slightly.
To me, nowadays, it really comes down to which team makes more 3pters most of the time, so we should have this in the bag.
I feel like our bench defense makes up for the hot/cold offense they have. Norm, OG, Ibaka.. hell even FVV has an eye for passing lanes and can shut it down sometimes.
As long as our bench plays smothering defense while they're on the court and make sure the opposition doesn't fill the score sheet while some or all the starters are resting, we good.
Turnovers leading to second chance points have been an issue at times for us, if we can tighten that up, this is a monster of a team.
I think to Mikistans point, I think 3s are going to be huge, and we have been surging.
I really think its going to depend on how Nurse staggers the bench with Skills/Green/KL/Kawhi. I like the idea of keeping atleast 2 of them out there at all times, unless were talking 2-3 mins to kill. I think its going to be interesting to see how they employs them, in terms if its to match up, or for certain elements of the team offense (we need a shooter/slasher/facilitator, vs how ORL is playing).
Duffman100 wrote:I'm wondering if their hot streak takes into account the number of crappy teams they faced down the stretch. If you look at their wins, good ones against GS, Philly and Boston.
But then like a good 10-12 against sub-par to terrible teams.
Thats fair, I didnt really look into SOS of their opponents down the stretch, and consider they were fighting for a PO spot pretty hard.
Duffman100 wrote:I'm wondering if their hot streak takes into account the number of crappy teams they faced down the stretch. If you look at their wins, good ones against GS, Philly and Boston.
But then like a good 10-12 against sub-par to terrible teams.
Thats fair, I didnt really look into SOS of their opponents down the stretch, and consider they were fighting for a PO spot pretty hard.
Since Feb 1, Orlando's only wins against +0.500 teams have been against - Bucks (no Giannis) - Raptors (no Kawhi) - Warriors (no Durant) - Pacers - Sixers (no Simmons) - Celtics (after playoff seedings determined)
I think a lot of the series will come down to the Raptors defense (we’re heavily favoured vs their offense). They don’t have a lot of tools in their arsenal in that regard — they’re very reliant on a couple of guys.
Also, it will be interesting to see how much we can run versus them. Their defense is pretty good.
Looking at the stats it looks like it will actually be a very competitive series, so I hope people don't lost their minds if we don't sweep them.
"I wish I was a little bit taller, I wish I was a baller, I wish I had a girl who looked good - I would call her, I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat and a '64 Impala" - Skee-Lo
lstern wrote:Rebounding is really an issue in this match-up.
Last night we couldn't buy a shot and they hit the big ones down the stretch.
Following last night's loss, do you still think we take them?
Ofcourse.
I think theres alot of outliers when parsing out that game.
FVV+Starters were a -16 in 5 mins. I expect that to be much better in subsequent games.
I think it may go 6 but im not as concerned as others here. ORL played some really good defense, and they snuffed out the transition in lieu of crashing the boards, one of my bigger questions. Should be a fun series.
