VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series v2K16.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #1 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:29 am

So you guys know the drill by now, heres my guide. I dont want to say too much, and ill respond to comments you guys leave instead and let the stats speak for themselves without too much narrative. Besides I havent gone through all of it in this format, so im sure ill notice more as I read through it.

Heres last years.
Heres the 13/14 PO guide.

So last few years I used Feb 1st a barometer to show how teams performed at the tail end of the year (I could have used any arbitrary date really).

This season the Raps were 5th ORTG (107.0), 11th DRTG (102.7), 6th NetRTG (+4.3).
This season the Pacers were 23rd ORTG (102.4), 3rd DRTG (100.2), 11th NetRTG (+2.2)

Since Feb 1st the Raps were 4th ORTG (109.2), DRTG 15th (105.4), NetRTG 8th (+3.8).
Since Feb 1st the Pacers were ORTG 23rd (103.0), DRTG 6th (101.6), NetRTG 14th (+1.4).

Both teams have slipped in the latter part of the season, due to their DRTG dropping, but IND is an elite defense still. Its ironic considering WAS was similar being a 4th ranked D coming into the series last year. They will need to overwhelm them defensively and grind out Ws. The difference is this year the Raps are improved defensively, and can win those type of games.

Team Comps

Spoiler:

Raps O vs Pacers D.

Spoiler:

Defending the top 6 Sets, TOR O vs Pacers D.

Spoiler:

Raps D vs Pacers O.

Spoiler:

Defending the top 6 Sets, TOR D vs IND O.

Spoiler:

Benches.

Spoiler:

Previous Games against eachother.

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More MatchUp Stats.

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Conclusion: Should be a high variance series. I think its fairly obvious why the Raps are favorites, but I think IND has ways to win. Grind out some games by forcing TOVs and pushing the pace, or hitting 3s as they have alot of streaky shooters. Its interesting because I could see them winning much along the same lines as WAS in that sense. Having said all that I have the Raps in 6, but what do I know, I took them the last two series (vs BK/WAS). What do you think?? See anything of interest??

Also ill try to bump this with VantageSports/Media Guide stuff/etc.. and most importantly, individual SportsVU D matchups Saturday morning, and anything else I find of interest prior to tipoff, so check back occasionally I guess.

Disclaimer: If all your going to do is type "_____ sucks", "tl;dr", etc.. please dont participate in this thread, thanks. I dont care about the And1s, or "thank you's", so please by all means participate. Perhaps I missed things, made errors, maybe you can drop some insight I may have missed, its what made last years thread great. We as a group identified all the things the Wiz needed to win, and they did it.

Arman_tanzarian · Post #2 » by **Arman_tanzarian** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:30 am

Thanks bro, awesome breakdown. Both teams are slower Paced teams, seems like it will be a offence vs defence grind out.

cammac · Post #3 » by **cammac** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:41 am

Always great posts VVV.

vaff87 · Post #4 » by **vaff87** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:42 am

________ sucks.

Arman_tanzarian · Post #5 » by **Arman_tanzarian** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:42 am

One thing we could do is keep George a jump shooter, although he's great there, he's deadlier when attacking. Fortunately for us he doesn't attack too much, 5.4 drives a game, ranking lower than even guys like CoJo. High TOV% on drives too. By all means we should be taking this series, in how many games who knows. i say 5 or 6, they'll sneak a game or 2 in.

Potential · Post #6 » by **Potential** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:47 am

Eastern Conference Finals confirmed

BoyzNTheHood · Post #7 » by **BoyzNTheHood** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:48 am

CJ Miles is the wild card in this series. He usually shoots well versus us, and he's the main streaky shooter I'd be worried about. He hits 3's and 3's swing momentum.

Also, be wary of Monta Ellis rim attacks. He could be lethal if we put DeMar on him. I'd honestly prefer Norman to shadow Monta.

Post #8 » by **Double Helix** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:51 am

I had begun aspects of this and seriously quit about 15 minutes in sensing (seriously) that you might post your big one soon. Glad I did!

This is great! Thanks!

Arman_tanzarian · Post #9 » by **Arman_tanzarian** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:07 am

Something else to consider is a small ball lineup when 2 Pat isn't playing the 4 next to either one of our C's or even 2 Pat at C. Looking at Nylon Calculus' positional data:

Ross puts up a team leading +15.7 Net Rating per 48 when playing SF, Carrol puts up his best Net Rating at PF, +8.2 at PF vs -0.2 at SF.

He does however only play 17 % of his minutes at PF but as the series goes on and should they force small ball or decide to instill it, I feel much more comfortable slotting Carroll at 4 for a few mins at a time, especially now that Ross has become quite the impact player. A lot of options this time out.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #10 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:21 am

Arman_tanzarian wrote:Something else to consider is a small ball lineup when 2 Pat isn't playing the 4 next to either one of our C's or even 2 Pat at C. Looking at Nylon Calculus' positional data:

Ross puts up a team leading +15.7 Net Rating per 48 when playing SF, Carrol puts up his best Net Rating at PF, +8.2 at PF vs -0.2 at SF.

He does however only play 17 % of his minutes at PF but as the series goes on and should they force small ball or decide to instill it, I feel much more comfortable slotting Carroll at 4 for a few mins at a time, especially now that Ross has become quite the impact player. A lot of options this time out.

I think on a macro sense TR (much like Norm) is more a SG-PG defender than SF, its why we shifted DD to the 3 when hes in, and why I think DC started JJ so many games in DMCs absence. PG13 is much less effective at the 4 (as per Nylon Calculus), while Hill/Miles are decent as spot 3s. So if its Miles/Hill I dont mind TR out there, as neither had more than 10 PostUp finishes. I might even advocate TR guarding PG13, as theres less likelyhood of PG13 backing down TR, than say a Joe Johnson/LBJ/etc.. All in all I think youre right in assuming we should play more TR at 3, but where id quibble with you is DMC at the 4.

Hes coming off an injury. As such, I dont mind playing him spot mins to see where hes most effective, but I think if youre looking at DMCs numbers theres a huge caveat being all the time he was injured and playing. I dont know that he will be able to handle that bulk unless its PG13 sliding over to the 4. Altho in fairness, I assume youre saying that.

What I like ultimately if the Pacers do go small is the Raps ability to attack the rim relentlessly. They should be able to anyways, but the Pacers playing small plays into their hands as it takes out one of their 2 better rim protectors in Turner/Mahinmi. It helps that KL isnt playing a high USG PG like he has the past 2 playoffs, so hopefully he can/will attack more rather than exerting so much energy chasing those PGs.

Good stuff man.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #11 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:30 am

BoyzNTheHood wrote:CJ Miles is the wild card in this series. He usually shoots well versus us, and he's the main streaky shooter I'd be worried about. He hits 3's and 3's swing momentum.

Also, be wary of Monta Ellis rim attacks. He could be lethal if we put DeMar on him. I'd honestly prefer Norman to shadow Monta.

CJ Miles, G Hill, PG 13, and even if a guy like Monta gets hot can a load to handle. If you consider that INDs 3PTr is really low and their 3PT% being 28th, if they start hitting them it could get messy. Fortunately, they havent. The Wiz last year were a pretty good 3PT% but they didnt shoot alot of them, in lieu of long MR shots. In the POs vs us, they swtiched it up and came out shooting alot more 3s. I dont think we have to worry about that so much this series, unless their percentages also go way up.

I dont think DD guards Monta, I think that goes to KL/TR/Norm. Aside from what I said to Arman, I really think DC is going to use alot of DD vs PG13, Norm vs Monta, and KL on Hill. DMC/TR coming off the bench to spell those guys. When IND goes small, DD slides over to Miles.

The match ups should be interesting, but I think youre right in thinking a Monta/DD match up is a poor way to go. Monta is a pretty efficient finisher off drives, so id be wary.

cammac · Post #12 » by **cammac** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:00 am

What will be interesting is how the Raptors will formulate the offense and defense since Casey has more tools to work with than last years team. He has the ability to go big or small at will and force the other team to match rather than be the follower especially with the Pacers who are conservative both offensively and defensively. Plus the emergence of Powell hasn't been realized yet and Carroll return obviously on limited minutes spreads the floor and improves our defense at PF.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #13 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:04 am

vini_vidi_vici · Post #14 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:10 am

cammac wrote:What will be interesting is how the Raptors will formulate the offense and defense since Casey has more tools to work with than last years team. He has the ability to go big or small at will and force the other team to match rather than be the follower especially with the Pacers who are conservative both offensively and defensively. Plus the emergence of Powell hasn't been realized yet and Carroll return obviously on limited minutes spreads the floor and improves our defense at PF.

To me I dont look at DMC as some finite 4 like others do. I think they should use him as a match up forward. I dont think he should be playing the Lavoy Allens/Turners/etc.. just when PG13 moves over to bring in CJ Miles.

I think as a rule DC likes to match defensively, because this team is already so talented offensively with almost any lineup (obviously within reason). Hes not the type to dictate, not that it makes it any better/worse a strategy. I think much to everyones delight you will see alot of Norm this series, specifically against Monta/if PG ____ gets hot, to "turn the water off". To your point, win or lose, and while its a terribly small sample, should be interesting to see lineup data of both teams after the series.

Kabookalu · Post #15 » by **Kabookalu** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:40 am

For what it's worth we're putting up a defensive rating of 102.1 since March 15th, the game that Powell became a fixture in our starting lineup and started breaking out. I feel like we can be an even better defensive team than the numbers we've posted up with the addition of Powell in our rotation, and the return of Carroll. Our defensive rotations on the perimeter seem a lot more crisp and concise now.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #16 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:10 am

Choker wrote:For what it's worth we're putting up a defensive rating of 102.1 since March 15th, the game that Powell became a fixture in our starting lineup and started breaking out. I feel like we can be an even better defensive team than the numbers we've posted up with the addition of Powell in our rotation, and the return of Carroll. Our defensive rotations on the perimeter seem a lot more crisp and concise now.

I agree, but I dont think this team will ever be elite with both JV/DD logging heavy mins. Perhaps they grow and improve defensively, but I havent seen the consistency. For JV it more because they are funneling to the help and his Rim Protection has been abysmal this year, hopefully last year wasnt an outlier, and hes not very good in the PnR/PnP. For DD, he lacks the speed and ability to get through/around screens and it can become a gong show, one reason the PG13 match up concerns me. You compound that with Scola, although I see him getting phased out, and perhaps completely over the summer so im not too concerned in that regard.

It is nice to have a mix of defenders capable of handling heavy workloads, and differing types of offensive players. TR seems to be great against primary ball handlers, much like to a lesser extent Norm. CoJo is good at PnR threats. JV is great vs Post threats. BB is a great rim protector. Its just a more diverse attack defensively and it seems we can match up on the perimter/frontcourt with a myriad of guys.

TOR_97 · Post #17 » by **TOR_97** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:35 am

One thing to look at with Vogel working the refs before Game 1...

Raptors are 24-13 when they attempt 25 or less free throws

12-9 when they attempt 20 or less free throws.

37-20 when DeRozan attempts 10 or less free throws

18-6 when DeRozan attempts 10 or more free throws

EDIT: DeRozan has done better job of adapting when he isn't getting calls and playing through contact so I don't think less FTA will change the series as much as people may think.

Post #18 » by **Double Helix** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:07 pm

For those who find the idea of rankings helpful for additional clarity and perspective I've taken some of the play type stats available in VVV's OP and determined manually where each of the teams ranked within the league in those areas, both in terms of frequency of attempts for or against and in efficiency ranking. Here's the first 3 I was curious about. I'll try to do some more when I have some more time.

TRANSITION:
Pacers O:
7th in frequency.
14th in PPP.

Raptors D:
24th in frequency of transition attempts given up.
12th best at stopping transition scoring via PPP.

Raptors O:
24th in transition attempts.
Best in league in transition scoring team when they attempts it.

Pacers D:
12th in transition attempts against.
Tied for best at stopping transition scoring.

My take. Slight edge for them. It's a bit of a fire and ice scenario though. They are above average at getting out and into transition. We are average at stopping those plays from leading to baskets. We are less reliant on it than they are for our offence which is good because they are the best at stopping it but we also happen to the best at scoring in this manner when we do get out and run. Still, slight edge for them in transition as an element of the game.

ISOLATION:
Pacers O:
19th in frequency.
23rd in PPP.

Pacers D:
Tied for fewest Isos attempts against.
12th in PPP against.

Raptors O:
10th in frequency.
10th in PPP.

Raptors D:
4th fewest ISO attempts against.
18th in PPP given up.

My take. The Pacers are below average in ISO attempts which makes sense because they're very inefficient at it. The Raptors seem to discourage ISO attempts for some reason (4th fewest in attempts against. Maybe it's the perception of our athleticism). We're only average to slightly below average at stopping it though. I don't think we'll see an ISO Joe situation in this series because I'm not convinced there's a spot for the Pacers to attack with a talent that makes more sense for them than what's worked for them all year. Monta has a size disadvantage against Derozan and is slowing down so I don't think that's their silver bullet personally. We had no answer to Joe Johnson's ISO backdowns 2 years ago but he's great at that. We do now in Carroll on George. They might try to get a switch of Paul George on Derozan potentially and then clear out but I don't think it will become the factor that the Joe John situation was, personally.

PICK AND ROLL BALL HANDLER
Pacers O:
11th in frequency.
17th PPP in execution.

Pacers D:
8th in frequency of attempts against.
Tied for 8th best in stopping it.

Raptors O:
3rd in frequency
2nd to only the Warriors in execution.

Raptors D:
13th in frequency of attempts against.
5th best at stoping it via PPP against.

My take. It's here where the series may ultimately be decided. This, and a potential adjustment of Kyle and Demar to try and involve JV more on the roll if the Pacers attempt to blitz this. When I do some of the other ones you'll see that the Raptors are effective when hitting the roll man but they rarely do it. This could be a key adjustment though in the series and in my opinion the Raptors know that and have been preparing JV for this with more involvement down the stretch. Or, Carroll and 2Pat become bigger factors off of LMA-style pick, flare out and pops. That's also another option here. Both set great screens. Both can flare out and shoot quickly. Last but not least... The Raptors (and Kyle) like the 1/2 action where Kyle sets the screen for Demar as the ball handler. Derozan's improvement allows Kyle to then be the flare out option and he can catch and release with the best of them, or spot a cutting Carroll or wide open JV below the net to make them pay.

Point being we are far better to adjust to a junk defensive strategy this year to take this element away than the past 2 years if Indiana really focused on trying to take this away (and they will). Masai, IMO, built the team and Casey/Nurse prepared more for this eventuality in addition to the defensive reinforcements because of what they'd seen the past 2 seasons. They're more experienced now and can turn to alternative plans. The series will be a chess match in this area so watch for it. The Raptors are downright scary with Lowry and Demar in this area of the game so much like a football gameplan of establishing the run to setup the pass I suspect we will look to ram this down their throats early to get s sense of how they're playing it with a quick time out (if necessary) to talk through any adjustments. If it looks like the Pacers can't stop this, or if their attempts to stop it make Carroll, 2Pat, and JV bigger parts of the offence then each of those guys has a chance to step up and all 3 have shown the efficiency when disrespected to make teams pay.

My biggest concern is that the Pacers have the athletes to potentially slow this down without blitzing it and if they do then that means less open shooters for Kyle and Demar to find on the move. As good as Indiana has been at stopping this league wide there aren't 30 teams anywhere near Warriors/Raptors level at executing out of this and that's shown when we've faced them this season.

vini_vidi_vici · Post #19 » by **vini_vidi_vici** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:09 pm

TOR_97 wrote:One thing to look at with Vogel working the refs before Game 1...

Raptors are 24-13 when they attempt 25 or less free throws

12-9 when they attempt 20 or less free throws.

37-20 when DeRozan attempts 10 or less free throws

18-6 when DeRozan attempts 10 or more free throws

EDIT: DeRozan has done better job of adapting when he isn't getting calls and playing through contact so I don't think less FTA will change the series as much as people may think.

Losing a decidedly big advantage in terms of FTAs could be a factor, I agree. Its funny, while ppl lament DD wasnt able to get to the line, id argue him/team were trying just not getting calls.

As an anecdote, vs WAS last year.

TOR had 139 drives.
WAS had 76 drives.
DD had 51 alone (7th total despite only 4 games, in the conf semis).

TOR was called for 100 PFs.
WAS was called for 82 PFs.

TOR FTr was .241 (14th).
WAS FTr was .348 (3rd).

Whether you think theres some conspiracy/whatever there, thats subjective, but it looks like that was a very rough whistle. As such im inclined to agree if we get the kind of disparity, it could make for a rough series for us.

Kevin Willis · Post #20 » by **Kevin Willis** » Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:50 pm

vini_vidi_vici wrote:
TOR_97 wrote:One thing to look at with Vogel working the refs before Game 1...

Raptors are 24-13 when they attempt 25 or less free throws

12-9 when they attempt 20 or less free throws.

37-20 when DeRozan attempts 10 or less free throws

18-6 when DeRozan attempts 10 or more free throws

EDIT: DeRozan has done better job of adapting when he isn't getting calls and playing through contact so I don't think less FTA will change the series as much as people may think.

Losing a decidedly big advantage in terms of FTAs could be a factor, I agree. Its funny, while ppl lament DD wasnt able to get to the line, id argue him/team were trying just not getting calls.

As an anecdote, vs WAS last year.

TOR had 139 drives.
WAS had 76 drives.
DD had 51 alone (7th total despite only 4 games, in the conf semis).

TOR was called for 100 PFs.
WAS was called for 82 PFs.

TOR FTr was .241 (14th).
WAS FTr was .348 (3rd).

Whether you think theres some conspiracy/whatever there, thats subjective, but it looks like that was a very rough whistle. As such im inclined to agree if we get the kind of disparity, it could make for a rough series for us.

Maybe it will create a more difficult series. However Washington provided a unique problem with Pierce hitting that key shot in game 1, Wall's speed, Otto's defense on DD and Beal's shooting. Plus they have veteran bigs. Indiana has PG and a past prime Ellis. Their bigs are not good quality. Plus our team in general plays more of a playoff style of basketball than Indiana.

It's not a good matchup for Indiana. Their roster isn't deep and it lacks experience outside of a couple players. They have insufficient rim protectors for our drivers and if they try to match our physicality they will be blown out the building. I really, really like our chances to win in 5 and maybe sweep.