Sansterre's Top 100 Teams, #38-40, 2009 CLE, 2003 SAS, 2013 MIA

[sansterre]

Glossary:

Spoiler:

Overall SRS: My combo-SRS from the regular season and playoffs as discussed in the master thread
Standard Deviations: Standard Deviations of Overall SRS from the league mean.

When I post the roster makeup of the team, I try and do it by playoff minutes. The numbers are age, regular season BPM and Playoff BPM (basketball-reference's BPM is being used here).

So if I say: "C: Vlade Divac (22), +2.3 / +4.3" I mean that Vlade Divac was their center, he was 22, he had a BPM of +2.3 in the regular season and a +4.3 in the playoffs. Yes, BPM misses out on a lot of subtle stuff but I thought it a good quick-hits indicator of the skills of the players.

I also list the playoff players (20+ MPG) in order of OLoad (which is usage that integrates assists) and it has everyone's per game average for minutes, points, rebounds, assists and stocks (steals plus blocks), but all of those (including minutes) are adjusted for pace.

I then cover the three highest players in scoring per 100 (with their true shooting relative to league average) and the three highest players in Assists per 100. I realize that these are arbitrary, but I wanted a quick-hits reference for how these teams' offenses ran.

I then talk about Heliocentrism, Wingmen and Depth. Basically I add up all of the team's VORP (again, basketball-reference) and then figure out what percentage of that VORP comes from the #1 player (Heliocentrism), from the #2 and 3 players combined (Wingmen) and Depth (everyone else). I include the ranking among the top 100 for reference. There are only 82 of these rankings, because 18 teams pre-date BPM/VORP, so I only have 82 to work with. I'm not saying that these are particularly meaningful, I just thought they were cool.

Playoff Offensive Rating: Amount by which your playoff offensive rating exceeds the offensive rating you'd expect given the regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents. If you would be expected to post a 99 given your opponents but you post a 104, that's graded as +5. This way we can compare across eras.
Playoff Defensive Rating is the same as Offensive Rating, just the opposite.
Playoff SRS: Is SRS measured *only* in the playoffs. Overall SRS is a mix of both playoffs and regular season.
Total SRS Increase Through Playoffs: Basically their Overall SRS minus their Regular Season SRS. This is basically how much better a team did in the playoffs than you'd guess, relative to their regular season performance.
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: The average regular season offensive rating of your playoff opponents.
Average Playoff Opponent Defense: The average regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents.

Rankings of any kind are out of my list. So if I say that the '91 Lakers had the 42nd best regular season offense, I don't mean "42nd best of All-Time", I mean "42nd best of my Top 100 Teams of All_Time". Which will be pretty comparable, but I want to be clear about this.

I also walk through the playoffs at each round, covering their opponent their SRS (at that time), how many games the series was, the margin of victory (and a "+" is always in the favor of the discussed team; losing a series by +2.0 means that you outscored the other team by two points a game on average despite losing) and for reference I put in an SRS equivalency (beat a +5 SRS team by 5 points a game, that's an equivalent +10 SRS series).

In writeups, if I ever say a player shot at "-8%" or something, that means "his true shooting was 8% lower than the league average that year". Any time I say "a player shot" and follow it by a percent, I am *always* using true shooting percentage unless otherwise indicated.

I also have a modern comps section for any teams pre-2011. It's basically me weighting each statistical characteristic and feeding each player's stats into the BackPicks database and choosing the best-rated comp from the list. I might list something like this:

PG: 2017 LeBron James (worse rebounding, better passing, way fewer shots)

What I mean is, "This team's point guard was basically 2017 LeBron James, but make his passing better, make his rebounding worse and make him take way fewer shots).

Anyhow. I don't know how clear any of this will be, so please let me know what does and doesn't work from these writeups. And thanks for reading!

#40. The 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers

Spoiler:

Overall SRS: +10.53, Standard Deviations: +1.97, Lost in Conference Finals (Preseason 5th)

Regular Season Record: 66-16, Regular Season SRS: +8.68 (13th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +4.1 (44th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -5.9 (17th)

PG: Mo Williams, +2.3 / +0.4
SG: Delonte West, +1.7 / +1.0
SF: LeBron James, +13.2 / +17.5
PF: Anderson Varejao, +0.6 / +0.5
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, -0.3 / -0.1

LeBron James (SF, 24): 43 MPPG, 35% OLoad, 32 / 9 / 8 / 3 on +4.7%
Mo Williams (PG, 26): 39 MPPG, 24% OLoad, 20 / 4 / 5 / 1 on +4.4%
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C, 33): 31 MPPG, 22% OLoad, 15 / 9 / 1 / 2 on -2.1%
Delonte West (SG, 25): 38 MPPG, 18% OLoad, 13 / 4 / 4 / 2 on +1.5%
Anderson Varejao (PF, 26): 32 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 10 / 8 / 1 / 2 on +2.1%

Scoring/100: LeBron James (40.8 / +4.7%), Mo Williams (27.5 / +4.4%), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (25.7 / -2.1%)
Assists/100: LeBron James (10.4), Mo Williams (6.3), Delonte West (5.7)

Heliocentrism: 56.5% (2nd of 84 teams) - LeBron
Wingmen: 24.4% (82nd) - Williams & West
Depth: 19.1% (64th)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +7.33 (28th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -6.01 (36th)
Playoff SRS: +12.08 (31st), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +1.85 (64th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +0.41 (91st), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.03 (29th)

Playoff Heliocentrism: 67.4% (1st of 84 teams) - LeBron
Playoff Wingmen: 16.3% (84th) - West & Williams
Playoff Bench: 16.3% (65th)

Round 1: Detroit Pistons (-0.4), won 4-0, by +15.5 points per game (+15.1 SRS eq)
Round 2: Atlanta Hawks (+1.0), won 4-0, by +18.0 points per game (+19.0 SRS eq)
Round 3: Orlando Magic (+8.0), lost 2-4, outscored by -2.5 points per game (+5.5 SRS eq)
Round 4:

The 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers. Probably the most conspicuous carry-job ever. I’m not saying that LeBron carried the ‘09 Cavs more than anyone ever carried their team; there are a lot of worthy submissions in that area. But I will say that it’s the biggest carry-job on a team that was actually really good. Let’s look at the comps:

Modern Comps:

PG: 2018 Klay Thompson (better passing)
SG: 2013 Mario Chalmers
SF: 1989 Michael Jordan (worse scoring, better passing)
PF: 2016 Ian Mahinmi
C: 2016 Derrick Favors (slightly worse)

Okay. So he did have some outside shooting; Chalmers was a sufficient shooting/passing role player and ‘18 Thompson (despite being a downgrade from peak Klay) was definitely a strong shooter. ‘16 Mahinmi is the only version of that player that’s good, but even still it was pretty limited (no passing, tons of turnovers, low usage) and ‘16 Favors was a pretty decent 5. So here’s the problem. All of those players are pretty good 4th and 5th starters for a championship team. And peak Klay proved himself a totally viable #3 on a championship team (albeit with an extremely good 1 and 2). But . . . Is Mo Williams the worst #2 on any team in the Top 50? Seems pretty likely to me. He was a really good scorer . . . as long as LeBron was drawing all the defensive attention. He shot 58.8% and 58.0% with LeBron, but 47.1% without LeBron on Cleveland in 2010. His BPMs starting in ‘07 are: -0.5, +0.3, +2.3, +1.8, -2.4, +0.2, -0.9, -2.0. So, basically, as long as LeBron was playing out of his mind (‘09 and ‘10) in Williams’ ages 26 and 27 seasons, Williams was a good player. And the second LeBron leaves Williams becomes league average at best. So it’s not just that I’m not convinced that ‘09 Mo Williams was remotely qualified to be a championship-level #2. I’m not convinced that ‘09 Mo Williams was anything other than a mirage created by the heat of LeBron James being literally on fire. Seriously, I feel like this is the conversation:

Person 1: “How good was Mo Williams?”
Person 2: “Well, as long as he was playing with one of the greatest playmakers/creators ever in one of his greatest seasons, he was pretty good.”
Person 1: “Oh really?”
Person 2: “Yeah, he really leveraged the incredible amount of space he got playing alongside LeBron to can a lot of open shots at a high rate of efficiency, and in aggregate he may have been slightly below an All-Star level.”
Person 1: “That sounds pretty good. How was he playing *without* one of the greatest playmakers/creators ever in one of his greatest seasons?”
Person 2: “Oh. League average at best.”

Not a particularly strong endorsement.

Speaking of which, let’s talk about ‘09 LeBron. To my mind there are three main skillsets for NBA players. The first is their athleticism and general physical gits. The second is their skills. And the third is their mental game. Well, LeBron’s mental game hasn’t remotely peaked in ‘09; heck, I’m sure it’ll be better in ‘21 than it was in ‘20. But his physical gifts may have been at their best here in ‘09. And in ‘09 his shooting took a big jump forward. In ‘09 his rim scoring was pretty comparable to what it had been before. His 3-10 foot scoring jumped, but LeBron never took a ton of those. But his 16 foot - 3 pointers went from 34.6% in ‘07 to 37.2% to 38.8% in ‘09. And his threes went from 31.9% in ‘07 to 31.5% in ‘08 to 34.4% in ‘09. And let the record show that in Cleveland (v1) less than half of his made three pointers were assisted; most of them were his own creations off the dribble. So in ‘09 his usage remained really high, but his increased shooting lifted his efficiency to new heights. 40 points per 100 at +4.7% efficiency isn’t the best shooting season ever, but it’s really damned good. And of course, LeBron was putting up 10 assists per 100 as well. His unadjusted +/- for the season was +21.2; when he was on the court his team performed at +15 per 100, but when he sat his team was outscored by 6.2 per 100. That is fairly insane. He scored more points than the next two closest teammates combined, had more assists than the next two closest teammates combined, had the most steals on the team, had the most blocks on the team, had the most rebounds . . . When he was on the court 59% of his team’s buckets were either him scoring or him assisting. It is impossible to overstate how good LeBron was at every part of his game, and how dependent the Cavs were on this. As Bruce Bowen quipped (about the ‘07 Cavs, for whom this was less true) “You look at that group that he got to the Finals with, it was a group that was all him.” Truer words Bruce, truer words.

So I’ve painted the picture of a group of weak but sufficient supporting players rotating around super-LeBron. So you may instinctively imagine that they’re a low 50s team, mid-seed. Instead, they went 66-16 in the regular season with an +8.68 SRS, the 13th best on this list. How is it possible that Mo Williams and Delonte West were the 2nd and 3rd best players on a team this good? No joke, this is a team that doesn’t remotely make sense unless LeBron was having a walk-on-water level season. And this wasn’t even in a weak East (SRS is opponent-adjusted, so that wouldn’t matter anyways); the East was actually the better conference in 2009, but really the conference was about three teams: the Celtics, the Magic and the Cavs, with no other team above +2 SRS. The Cavs got the one-seed, but an eventual matchup with one of those teams loomed.

The first round was against the -0.4 Detroit Pistons. The Cavs swept in four, by 15.5 points a game. LeBron averaged a 32/11/8 on +7.8%. In the second round they faced the +1.0 Atlanta Hawks. The Cavs swept in four, by 18 points a game. LeBron averaged a 34/8/6 on +12.3% with 2.5 steals a game. Neither team had been much better than average, but the Cavs had destroyed them top to bottom.

But in the Conference Finals were the Orlando Magic (+8.0). The Magic boasted Dwight Howard, arguably the best post Shaq center in the NBA, and a horde of three point shooters who played strong perimeter defense. They looked to be a tough team, but the Cavs had looked better to date. Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy had an usual approach to defending LeBron. Like the ‘74 Celtics did against Kareem, the Magic would leave LeBron’s man on an island. They were basically betting that taking LeBron’s teammates out of the game would take away LeBron’s biggest asset. As Van Gundy reasoned, “of all the great scorers in the league, he’s the best passer.” Because ‘09 LeBron was fairly unguardable one on one; most teams threw multiple defenders at him which then created open looks for his teammates which LeBron could convert at a high level. Basically, Van Gundy was betting that LeBron’s teammates were only effective because of LeBron’s creation, and if LeBron wasn’t allowed to create for them through power plays, their production would dry up.

It was a series of three stats. The first: LeBron absolutely obliterated the single-coverage he was assigned. He averaged a 39/8/8 on +4.7%, which is about as statistically dominant a conference finals as you’ll ever see. And let’s not forget that the Magic had the best rim-protector in the league guarding the paint. It was an all-time performance. The second stat was LeBron’s teammates shooting at -2.9% for the series. It is absolutely nuts that LeBron put up a 38.8% usage rate for the series, but still shot more efficiently than the rest of his teammates. And lastly was Dwight Howard, who completely demolished Zydrunas Ilguaskas with a 26/13/3 on +15.5%. It was a tight series, but the Magic prevailed by 2.5 points a game.

LeBron’s Heliocentrism score for these playoffs is by far the highest score on this sheet. By a lot. That doesn’t mean that this run doesn’t have detractors. I’ve heard that Van Gundy’s strategy for the Conference Finals was to “Let LeBron score” which makes literally no sense, and seems to only be a truncation of “Let’s not double LeBron”, which makes vastly more sense. Some speak ill of his performance in Game 6, when LeBron only had a 25/7/7 on -3.1%. It wasn’t LeBron’s best, but the only reason that the Cavs were even sniffing Game 6 was LeBron. Here are the individual games leading up to Game 6:

Game 1: 49/6/8 on +16.8%, Cavs lose by 1
Game 2: 35/4/5 on +7.5%, Cavs win by 1 on a LeBron buzzer-beater
Game 3: 41/7/9 on -1.2%, Cavs lose by 10
Game 4: 44/12/7 on +5.2%, Cavs lose by 2 in overtime (LeBron uses 8 of his team’s 10 shots in overtime, but puts up 100% of their points shooting +9.1%, but Howard goes 4 for 4)
Game 5: 37/14/12 on +2.8%, Cavs win by 10

I’m sorry. I don’t understand attacking LeBron for his performance at all. That his last performance was probably his worst doesn’t look good, but if you switched Games 3 and 6, they’d still have lost the same, and he’d magically have looked better. LeBron had been wrecking the Magic and the Cavs were still down 2-3. And LeBron’s buzzer-beating three literally saved a game.

LeBron played his butt off. And the Cavs had scored 9.7 more points per 100 on the Magic than they normally allowed; they’d made the league’s best defense allow points like one of its worst. But Ilgauskas and Varejao couldn’t remotely stop Dwight Howard. And the Cavs’ perimeter defenders couldn’t stop the Magic’s barrage of threes (the Magic shot 40.8%, after having shot 38.1% in the regular season). This wasn’t LeBron failing to lift Cleveland’s offense; this was Cleveland’s defense getting torched in a way that LeBron really couldn’t have done too much about. The Magic were the exact worst matchup for the Cavs, and then they got lucky with their three pointers falling. It was disappointing, but it does happen (it certainly happened to Jordan in ‘89 and ‘90, but we know that guy was a choker).

11 | Lakers
10 | Cavs
9 | Nuggets
8 | Magic
7 |
6 |
5 | Celtics
4 | Rockets
3 | Mavericks
2 | Blazers
1 | Bulls, Heat, Spurs, Suns
0 | Jazz
-0 | 76ers, Hawks, Pacers, Bucks
-1 | Bobcats
-2 | Pistons, Nets, Raptors, Knicks
-3 | Warriors
-4 | TWolves,
-5 | Hornets, Grizzlies
-6 | Wizards, Thunder
-7 |
-8 | Clippers, Kings
-9 |
-10|

This is a pretty good example of a non-competitive league. Two teams at -8 or lower, four teams at +8 or higher, with a big spread of teams instead of a bunch of them clustered around zero. And of this year, the Cavs are clearly outstanding (if behind the Lakers, who possessed the rock to the Magic’s scissors). Some of their score is an outstanding RSRS (totally legit) and a lot of it is two blowouts of average teams. Those count, the ‘86 Celtics and ‘96 Bulls did the same thing to average teams. They just came up short against a very good Magic team that they were ill-suited to face. It happens. There has probably never been a team this good that was carried this hard. I’m okay with this ranking.

#39. The 2003 San Antonio Spurs

Spoiler:

Overall SRS: +9.01, Standard Deviations: +2.03, Won the Finals (Preseason 4th)

Regular Season Record: 60-22, Regular Season SRS: +5.65 (76th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +2.0 (78th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -3.9 (43rd)

PG: Tony Parker, +0.5 / -2.4
SG: Stephen Jackson, +0.9 / +0.6
SF: Bruce Bowen, +0.2 / +1.1
PF: Tim Duncan, +7.6 / +10.2
C: David Robinson, +2.1 / +3.6
6th: Manu Ginobili, +1.9 / +3.7
7th: Malik Rose, -0.6 / -1.8

Tim Duncan (PF, 26): 44 MPPG, 27% OLoad, 26 / 14 / 4 / 4 on +4.5%
Tony Parker (PG, 20): 38 MPPG, 24% OLoad, 17 / 3 / 6 / 1 on +2.3%
Malik Rose (PF, 28): 27 MPPG, 22% OLoad, 12 / 7 / 2 / 1 on +1.9%
Stephen Jackson (SG, 24): 31 MPPG, 22% OLoad, 13 / 4 / 3 / 2 on +0.7%
Manu Ginobili (SG, 25): 23 MPPG, 19% OLoad, 9 / 3 / 2 / 2 on +3.7%
David Robinson (C, 37): 29 MPPG, 16% OLoad, 10 / 9 / 1 / 3 on +1.2%
Bruce Bowen (SF, 31): 35 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 8 / 3 / 2 / 2 on +4.4%

Scoring/100: Tim Duncan (31.6 / +4.5%), Tony Parker (24.4 / +2.3%), Malik Rose (22.7 / +1.9%)
Assists/100: Tony Parker (8.3), Tim Duncan (5.3), Manu Ginobili (5.1)

Heliocentrism: 45.6% (14th of 84 teams) - Duncan
Wingmen: 20.1% (84th) - Robinson & Parker
Depth: 34.3% (25th)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +1.80 (83rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -8.65 (14th)
Playoff SRS: +10.66 (47th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.36 (34th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.75 (34th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.70 (59th)

Playoff Heliocentrism: 50.8% (6th of 84 teams) - Duncan
Playoff Wingmen: 29.5% (76th) - Ginobili & Robinson
Playoff Bench: 19.7% (54th)

Round 1: Phoenix Suns (+1.6), won 4-2, by +5.3 points a game (+6.9 SRS eq)
Round 2: Los Angeles Lakers (+4.8), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+10.6 SRS eq)
Round 3: Dallas Mavericks (+7.5), won 4-2, by +5.0 points a game (+12.5 SRS eq)
Round 4: New Jersey Nets (+6.9), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+12.7 SRS eq)

Tim Duncan is a polarizing player (which is ironic, given that one of his most distinctive traits was the ability to get along with anyone). His advocates argue that he won five rings, and was successful in a variety of styles, from the slow defensive aughts to the pace & space teens. And his detractors argue that it isn’t reasonable to credit Duncan with all of that *team* success because he had one of the greatest coaches ever in Gregg Popovich and he always had a great supporting cast.

The 2003 Spurs are the exception to that last part.

In 1999 Duncan joined a team that already had a veteran stud (if not one designed to carry a playoff offense) in David Robinson. In 2014 Kawhi Leonard had grown into an excellent player, and the roster was incredibly deep. And in ‘05 and ‘07 Manu Ginobili, despite being a 6th man, led an outstanding supporting cast. But in 2003 neither of these things were going on. The 2003 Spurs posted the highest Heliocentrism of any Spurs team on this list by 14.9%, and the highest playoff Heliocentrism of any Spurs team on this list by 12.8%. Of eight Spurs teams, this is by far the most dependent on its best player.

Modern Comps:

PG: 2014 Deron Williams
SG: 2014 Lance Stevenson
SF: 2015 Matt Barnes
PF: 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (but better on offense)
C: 2019 Bam Adebayo
6th: 2012 Paul George
7th: 2010 Jermaine O’Neal (slightly better)

Look at those supporting players. They’re not bad. ‘14 Deron Williams is nice to have, if not great. ‘14 Lance Stevenson is a nice role player. ‘15 Matt Barnes is a solid defensive piece. ‘19 Bam Adebayo was pretty good in his limited minutes. ‘12 Paul George was a serious asset (at least on defense). And old Jermaine O’Neal held down the fort credibly. All of these players are quality 4th and 5th best players. But if I told you that those six players were six of the top seven players on a team that won the championship (pretty decisively), then you’d rightly guess that the missing player must be really damned good. I grabbed ‘77 Kareem because no player in the last decade is anything close to prime Tim Duncan. Peak Duncan carried a large offensive load, scored at good efficiency, passed well, didn’t turn the ball over, rebounded extremely well and may have been the best defensive player in the league (he probably wasn’t, but it would be a reasonable argument). That sounds a lot like ‘77 Kareem to me.

The problem was that all of his teammates were the wrong ages. David Robinson was 37, the future Hall of Famer going into his final year, protecting his body by playing only 25 minutes a game. In contrast Tony Parker was only 20 and Manu Ginobili was 25 (but he was a late bloomer, at this point mostly notable for being an insane ball-hawk on defense). Pretty much all of his great teammates were either too old or too young. I don’t want to sell that it was a bad supporting cast . . . It’s just that there was no way they were going to be winning anything without ‘03 Duncan. Do you know how many bigs on this list broke 45% Heliocentrism for the regular season? ‘80 Kareem, ‘74 Kareem and ‘01 Shaq (I’m choosing not to consider Bird and LeBron bigs for the purposes of this list). How about 50% Heliocentrism in the playoffs? ‘74 Kareem is it. As all-time seasons with a big man carrying a team to greatness go, ‘03 Duncan has got to be on the short list for that discussion.

In ‘99, with young Duncan and old (but still great) David Robinson united, the Spurs won the NBA Championship. In 2000, Tim Duncan tore the lateral meniscus on his left knee and missed the playoffs; the Spurs were defeated in the first round. In 2001 the band was back together and healthy, making it all the way to the Conference Finals . . . before being demolished by the ‘01 Lakers. In 2002 the Spurs made another strong run, and again fell to the Lakers (this time in the Semis). So in 2003 the Spurs were taking another run at it, with Robinson on his last legs (but still good) and Parker and Ginobili still developing. The only thing they really had going for them was prime Tim Duncan.

The Spurs went 60-22, tied for the best record in the league, with a respectable SRS of +5.65. Their offense was pretty good (7th in the league), led by good shooting (Duncan had the highest TS% on the team). And their defense was really good (3rd in the league), built mostly around shot defense. They were a good team in the regular season, but nothing remarkable. The Mavericks had the same record, but an SRS 2.35 points higher. The Kings were one win lower but with an SRS 1.08 points higher. And the Lakers didn’t look dominant on the surface, but they also hadn’t in 2001 and they’d beaten the Spurs by about a million. This is a long way of saying that the Spurs had gotten the one-seed in the West, but getting out of the conference would be a significant challenge.

In the first round they faced the +1.6 Phoenix Suns. The Suns at this time (young Marion, very young Amar’e and old Penny Hardaway) had little offensive firepower but they played a tough, athletic defense. And they gave the Spurs problems. The Spurs offense operated below league average, and shot at -2.4%. Their only bright spot (you’ll never guess) was Duncan with a 19/16/5 on +6.5% with 2.5 blocks a game. I was pretty surprised to see Duncan with that many assists per game (by far the highest on the team), but if you ask Stathead for playoff games with at least 20 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists, the leading player since 1985 is Tim Duncan with 17 (LeBron James has 13, Shaq has 12). I guess I hadn’t realized how much he ran that offense. But back to the Suns; they couldn’t score. The Spurs held them to shooting at -6.3% and won the series in six by 5.3 points a game. A solid win, but disappointing against a weaker team.

In the second round all of the title threats in the West faced each other. The Mavs and Kings faced off, and the Spurs faced the formidable Los Angeles Lakers. I’d love to tell you a story about how the righteous Spurs crushed their foes the Lakers, casting them down off their pedestal and riding into Valhalla like bosses. I mean, the Spurs did win, but it wasn’t easy by a long shot. Duncan, for all his defensive rebounding abilities, couldn’t keep Shaq off the glass. Shaq averaged a 25/14/4 (6 offensive boards a game) on +6.3%. Kobe managed to score a lot (32/5/4) but on limited efficiency (+1.4%). Overall the Lakers were held to several points below their season average, but still managed to shoot at +0.6%. But the Spurs shot well, with Ginobili and Bowen combining for 22.9 points a game on +14.7% or higher, and Duncan averaging a 28/12/5 on +5.6%. The Spurs took the series in six by 5.8 points a game; not overwhelming, but a decisive win against a good team.

In the Conference Finals they faced the Mavericks (+7.5) who had just finished edging out the Kings. Led by the young Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash the Mavericks had boasted the best offense in the league. The Spurs didn’t shut down their offense but they slowed it mightily, holding the Mavs to +0.6% shooting. The Spurs, in contrast, shot at +3.1% and were led by Duncan’s 28/17/6 on +8.4% with 3 blocks and 5 offensive boards a game. The Spurs, again, didn’t blow anybody out but they did win by five points a game, beating a pretty strong team by a pretty solid margin. They were in the NBA Finals again.

The New Jersey Nets (+6.9) are often maligned as a team to meet in the Finals. I don’t think that’s entirely fair. Here’s the list of teams since the 2000 to have a lower OSRS going into the Finals than the ‘03 Nets: the ‘00 Pacers, ‘01 76ers, ‘02 Nets, ‘05 Pistons, ‘06 Heat, ‘07 Cavs, ‘14 Heat and ‘18 Cavs. And, predictably, only one of those teams won the Finals, one came close and the others got stomped pretty hard. Was the ‘03 Eastern Conference fairly weak? Yes, but somehow nobody held playing in a weak conference against the ‘80s Lakers. Here was the playoffs of the ‘03 Nets:

Milwaukee Bucks (-0.2), won 4-2 by +4.4 a game (+4.2 SRS eq)
Boston Celtics (+2.4), won 4-0 by +10.0 a game (+12.4 SRS eq)
Detroit Pistons (+3.9), won 4-0 by +9.0 a game (+12.9 SRS eq)

Their toughest opponent? The +3.9 Pistons, so I don’t want to sell you on the idea that their playoff schedule was hard; it wasn’t (they averaged a +2 opponent, compared to the Spurs who averaged a +4.6 and the Mavs who averaged a +6.3). But their last two series in the East were dominant drubbings, both sweeps with +10 or higher SRS eqs. The ‘03 Nets were actually a pretty good team (within reason, they were below average for the Finals for the decade, but better than most of the teams that had lost).

I have a theory for why the ‘03 Nets get so little love historically. First, they were a fairly unassuming bunch with little star power. By far their best player, Jason Kidd, was the opposite of everything the media latched onto. He wasn’t a very good shooter, he grabbed a lot of boards for a 1 (but not enough to get notice), he played outstanding team defense and he ran an offense very well (but not in a flashy way like Steve Nash, and not in a way that filled the box score like Chris Paul). If the Nets had been led by a score-first iso-artist (let’s say like Iverson) the media could have sunk its teeth into it: “Spurs defeat Iverson and the Nets!” But, for whatever reason, teams built on depth, execution and a best player who isn’t a dominant scorer often seem to be viewed as pretenders of a sort. In the sense that his focus wasn’t his own stats but instead setting his teammates up for success, Kidd was actually a lot like Duncan. Except that Duncan may well have been the best player at his position ever, while Kidd was merely a Top 40 player. And most of all, Duncan had the one thing that the media will forgive almost anything for, even for a team-first no-talk no-style professional like Duncan.

Rings.

The Nets’ offense was not particularly strong, but the Spurs shut it down hard. The Nets were held to an anemic -7.3% shooting. Duncan averaged a 24/17/5 on +2.7%, with 5.3 blocks a game. In the closeout game, Duncan posted one of the more remarkable stat-lines ever, a 21/20/10 with 8 blocks, flirting with a quadruple double. I don’t want to over-sell the Spurs’ win; the Nets were able to secure a small possession advantage (about 5 shots a game) mostly through turnovers, and the Spurs shot below league average (-1.2%). But they won nevertheless, by 5.8 points a game.

The Spurs had won the title. And Duncan had carried them there. Listen to this pace-adjusted per game stat line of Duncan in the '03 Playoffs:

47 MPPG, 26.4% OLoad, 27 / 17 / 6 / 4 on +5.8%.

Tell me that doesn’t look like a Kareem stat-line. Except that Kareem would have shot more efficiently and had fewer assists. And the usage rate is very Kareem; clearly the best player and best scorer on the team, but never getting too near that 30% rate.

Do you realize how nuts this is? They were running a 20 year-old point guard, so the Spurs basically asked Duncan to be the passing hub of the offense. Both the ‘02 and ‘03 playoffs he’d posted Assist% above 25 and turnover% below 15%. If I ask StatHead for a list of players with AST% > 25% and TO% < 15% with at least 300 playoff minutes, I get a ton of guards and passing 3s (LeBron leads this list by a mile, but Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant follow). Duncan’s done it twice. The only other big ever to do it twice? Nikola Jokic. Now I’ll be the first one to say that all assists aren’t created equal, and these restrictions preclude more aggressive passers (Nash isn’t on here, and Magic only once). But do you realize that Duncan not only led his team in scoring, scoring efficiency, rebounding (by a ton) and anchored their outstanding defense, but he also put together two of the best big-man passing playoffs ever? And then once Parker got to the point where he could run the offense instead the Spurs and Duncan moved on like nothing had happened.

WTF?

If it turned out that Duncan was a secret 40% three point shooter but the needs of the offense required him to be nearer the hoop for offensive boards so he never took them . . . I wouldn’t be surprised (obviously he didn’t have that kind of range, but you understand what I mean).

I am simply in awe of this season. First I didn’t realize just how much he carried the ‘03 Spurs. Then I didn’t realize that his pace-adjusted stats were basically peak Kareem, but trading shooting efficiency for passing. And then I didn’t realize just how good his passing in the playoff was. But perhaps most I respect that when his role began to fade and he had to ease into the background for the good of the team, Duncan did it so effortlessly that nobody noticed that he’d actually done it. I’m not part of the “Duncan was the best player on five championship teams” bandwagon; that simply isn’t true. But everything about the ‘03 season and its aftermath captures a kind of personal greatness that is incredibly rare; the kind of greatness that can hide in plain sight because it isn’t at all worried about others recognizing it for what it is.

Duncan was one of a kind.

10 |
9 | Spurs
8 |
7 |
6 | Nets, Mavericks, Kings
5 | Blazers
4 |
3 | Lakers
2 | 76ers, Pistons
1 | Hornets, Suns, Rockets
0 | Celtics, TWolves, Jazz, Sonics
-0 | Pacers, Bucks, Warriors
-1 | Magic, Wizards, Knicks
-2 | Grizzlies
-3 | Hawks, Clippers
-4 |
-5 | Heat, Bulls
-6 | Raptors
-7 | Nuggets
-8 |
-9 | Cavs
-10|

The 2003 NBA season was actually fairly competitive. There were definitely outliers, but there’s a pretty good bunching around average. Only one team in six was better than +4, only one team in six was worse than -4. So while the ‘03 Spurs don’t look super dominant (76th best regular season SRS, 47th best playoff SRS), they did it in a pretty competitive year. And they stood head and shoulders above everyone else. There’s a big gap between them and the next tier. And of that next tier (Mavs, Nets, Kings), they beat two of them by 5+ points a game. Not a Top 25 team, but they definitely dominated their year.

As far as Duncan, I’m perversely reminded of a quote from Season 3 of Buffy the Vampire Slayer. For reasons Buffy is comparing herself positively to Martha Stewart and Xander agrees, saing “I don’t believe she slays either.” And Seth Green (deadpan of course), corrects, “Oh, I hear she can, but she doesn’t like to.”

I feel like this is Tim Duncan in a nutshell.

“Well, Kobe is obviously better than Duncan. Duncan isn’t the kind of guy that can carry a team to a championship.”
“Oh, I hear he can, but he doesn’t like to.”

#38. The 2013 Miami Heat

Spoiler:

Overall SRS: +9.41, Standard Deviations: +1.92, Won the Finals (Preseason 1st)

Regular Season Record: 66-16, Regular Season SRS: +7.03 (46th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +6.4 (13th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -2.2 (70th)

PG: Mario Chalmers, +0.4 / -1.6
SG: Ray Allen, +0.3 / +0.7
SF: Dwyane Wade, +4.4 / +3.1
PF: LeBron James, +11.7 / +10.4
C: Chris Bosh, +1.3 / +1.9

LeBron James (PF, 28): 42 MPPG, 31% OLoad, 30 / 9 / 8 / 3 on +10.5%
Dwyane Wade (SG, 31): 38 MPPG, 30% OLoad, 23 / 6 / 6 / 3 on +3.6%
Chris Bosh (C, 28): 37 MPPG, 21% OLoad, 18 / 8 / 2 / 3 on +5.7%
Ray Allen (SG, 37): 28 MPPG, 19% OLoad, 12 / 3 / 2 / 1 on +6.4%
Mario Chalmers (PG, 26): 30 MPPG, 18% OLoad, 10 / 2 / 4 / 2 on +4.1%

Scoring/100: LeBron James (37.5 / +10.5%), Dwyane Wade (32.4 / +3.6%), Chris Bosh (26.6 / +5.7%)
Assists/100: LeBron James (10.1), Dwyane Wade (7.8), Mario Chalmers (7.0)

Heliocentrism: 52.7% (5th of 84 teams) - LeBron
Wingmen: 31.4% (71st) - Wade & Bosh
Depth: 15.9% (68th)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +8.17 (18th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -2.32 (81st)
Playoff SRS: +10.62 (50th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +2.38 (52nd)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: -0.68 (99th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.87 (10th)

Playoff Heliocentrism: 46.7% (8th of 84 teams) - LeBron
Playoff Wingmen: 26.6% (80th) - Wade & Bosh
Playoff Depth: 26.7% (37th)

Round 1: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.8), won 4-0, by +14.7 points a game (+12.9 SRS eq)
Round 2: Chicago Bulls (-0.3), won 4-1, by +13.2 points a game (+12.9 SRS eq)
Round 3: Indiana Pacers (+4.0), won 4-3, by +4.0 points a game (+8.0 SRS eq)
Round 4: San Antonio Spurs (+11.0), won 4-3, outscored by -0.7 points a game (+10.3 SRS eq)

Forgive me for listing Allen as the 2 and Wade as the 3 and leaving off Haslem. UD “started” but only played 15 or so minutes a game, while Allen played 25ish minutes a game coming off the bench. So I’m lying about what positions they played as the starting lineup, but those are the 5 that played legit minutes. Anyhow . . .

In 2009 LeBron James had single-handedly carried a weak roster into 66 wins and the Eastern Conference Finals. In 2010 he carried another weak roster before fizzling against the Celtics in the playoffs. In 2011 he jumped ship, joining Dwyane Wade in Miami. With the addition of LeBron and Chris Bosh the Heat were considered the obvious #1 in the league. But at the intersection of LeBron weirdly underperforming and the ‘11 Mavericks being secretly pretty good, the 2011 Heat finished their season in disappointment. They came into 2012 for revenge and ripped through the playoffs, dispatching the talented ‘12 Thunder in five games. LeBron had finally ‘figured it out’, and the Heat seemed poised to own the league for years.

But how true was that? LeBron wasn’t quite as athletically gifted as he’d been four years ago, but his shooting was at its peak and his mind/passing, while not peaked yet, was now increasingly making him a terrifying opponent late in playoff series. But the rest of the roster?

Dwyane Wade’s Advanced Stats (RS):

2009: 36.2% Usage, +3.0% shooting, 7.8% Reb, 40.3% Ast, 5.8% Stk, +10.6 BPM
2010: 34.9% Usage, +1.9% shooting, 7.8% Reb, 36.4% Ast, 5.1% Stk, +9.2 BPM
** Enter LeBron and Bosh **
2011: 31.6% Usage, +4.0% shooting, 10.2% Reb, 23.5% Ast, 4.5% Stk, +6.6 BPM
2012: 31.3% Usage, +3.2% shooting, 8.7% Reb, 27.3% Ast, 5.8% Stk, +7.9 BPM
2013: 29.5% Usage, +3.6% shooting, 8.9% Reb, 26.6% Ast, 4.7% Stk, +4.4 BPM

Wade had sacrificed his sky-high usage. But it hadn’t actually bought him much of an increase in efficiency (consistent with Ben Taylor’s theory about how first options on weaker teams often don’t gain much efficiency from adding another high usage player, because what they gain in easier touches they lose in the offense not being designed for their skills anymore). He focused more on rebounding (posting impressive seasons) and his box score defense stayed loosely similar. But the trend was clear: his usage kept going down, his efficiency was slowly dropping (and it was never that high to begin with), and his metrics were slowly trending downward. Was he still really good before 2013? Yeah . . . but the addition of LeBron seems to have made things harder on him, not easier. And Wade’s gifts were so driven by his incredible athleticism that when that started going, his value started dropping. Furthermore, Wade started to struggle a bit to stay on the court, missing 10+ games every year from 2012 on. I don’t want to say that Wade wasn’t good in 2013, he totally was. But he was increasingly at “solid wingman” level, not “legitimate Helio Alpha in his own right” level.

This wasn’t a problem in and of itself. But the rest of the Heat’s roster got thin pretty quick. Chris Bosh had become more of a high-defense mobile 4 or 5 with a solid midrange game (no knock on him, the roster needed ball-dominance like it needed a hole in the head; only room for so many people on a banana boat). Chalmers was a serviceable passing shooter, slightly better than league average. Ray Allen was a good spot-up shooter and not much else. Shane Battier was the classic little things guy who could still shoot. And Udonis Haslem was the sub-par veteran center that they didn’t yet realize that they didn’t need. What I’m trying to say was that the rest of the roster was older and not getting better; them staying at championship level was kind of dependent on Wade maintaining his performance level, and Wade was getting worse. So the Heat’s window of dominance was already narrowing, but going into 2013 nobody really realized that yet.

The one thing keeping the window open? LeBron entering his best scoring seasons. In 2013 he shot 40.3% from three (his highest ever), shot 44.7% on long twos (his highest ever), 41.5% on middle twos (not his highest ever, but better than he had in Cleveland), and 49.4% in the 3-10 range (highest to date). His was now at the point where he could score from anywhere with considerable facility; opponents could no longer play off him and live with his shooting. So they had to play tighter which gave him his best season at the rim so far, 37.3% of his shots at the rim (highest to date) and converting 77.6% of them (his highest to date). Despite the fact that he was less quick than he’d been before, his shooting created greater opportunities than his athleticism had. Do you realize how nuts 30% usage plus +10% shooting is? We’re talking Kevin Durant territory. Which is fairly impressive . . . then you realize that at this age he was also an excellent rebounder, could defend 1 through 5 at a high level, and may have been the best passer in the game. In 2013, LeBron was in pretty rarified air. And this, for a time, would compensate for Wade’s decline.

In the regular season the Heat tore through the East, going 66-16 (best record in the league, leading the East by 12 games) and posting a +7.03 RSRS, best in the East by +3.3. And the seeming biggest threat to the Heat’s dominance, the 2013 Thunder (who had posted a +9.15 RSRS) would see their season derailed by an injury to Russell Westbrook. The Heat looked to have a relatively smooth path to a repeat.

In the first round they faced the poor Milwaukee Bucks (-1.8). The Heat swept them by 14.7 points a game. Dominant win over a weak team.

In the second round they faced the average Chicago Bulls (-0.3). The Heat took them in five by 13.2 points a game. Again a weak opponent, but winning by double digits is what we expect from historically great teams against weak opposition.

In the Conference Finals they drew the ‘13 Indiana Pacers, who were pretty decent (+4.0). And they represented a respectable challenge to the Heat. They had a 7’3” rim protector in Roy Hibbert, a talented athletic defending wing in Paul George and a good defensive coach in Frank Vogel. And they made the Heat work for it. The Heat would win the series but it would take seven games, winning by 4 points a game. LeBron averaged a 29/7/5 on +7.4% while Wade would struggle with a 15/5/4 on -4.9%. Four points a game against a good team isn’t bad, but it’s not dominant either. So the Head advanced to take on the San Antonio Spurs.

The 2013 Spurs were deceptively good. They’d had a strong 2012, falling short only to the Thunder in the Conference Finals. In 2013 they’d finished with an RSRS of +6.67 (just shy of the Heat’s +7.04). Here were their playoffs:

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5), won 4-0 by +18.7 points a game (+20.2 SRS eq)
Golden State Warriors (+4.1), won 4-2 by +3.8 points a game (+7.9 SRS eq)
Memphis Grizzlies (+8.3), won 4-0 by +11 points a game (+19.3 SRS eq)

The Grizzlies rating was artificially inflated by defeating the Westbrook-less Thunder, but they’d also decisively beaten the Clippers in the first round. The Spurs had basically been obliterating most teams in the playoffs, struggling only with the Warriors. I doubt anybody took the Spurs’ chances against the Heat too seriously, but OSRS actually thought the Spurs were the favorite by 2 points a game. The Spurs not only boasted the veteran Duncan, but a horde of smart passing shooters and also one of the best young defenders in the game, Kawhi Leonard.

Game 1 was in Miami, so it set the tone that the Spurs took the game by 4. LeBron put up a 18/18/10 but was held to -2.8%, while Duncan put up a 20/14/4 on -5.3% with three blocks. The rest of the Heat lineup struggled, save for Ray Allen who shot 3 of 4 from 3. In Game 2 the Heat restored balance to the universe, smothering the Spurs’ shooting (-3.6% on the game). James was held to 17/8/7 on -6% shooting but with 3 blocks and 3 steals, while Chris Bosh put up a 12/10/4 on +6.5% with 3 steals. The Heat defended their home court fiercely, winning by 19.

In Game 3 the Spurs returned the favor with interest. LeBron really struggled on a 15/11/5 on -17.8% while the Spurs shot the lights out, led by Danny Green’s 27/4/0 on +31.5% with 2 steals and two blocks. Duncan grabbed seven boards and the Spurs won by 36. For Game 4 the Heat abandoned the pretense of starting Haslem at center (who was also struggling with a torn meniscus), and went to a small-ball lineup with Bosh at center, Mike Miller at the 3 and lots of 6th man minutes from Ray Allen. The new-look lineup reinvigorated the Heat’s offense. LeBron posted a 33/11/4 on +8.2% and all of Wade, Bosh and Chalmers shot at +6.3% or higher. The Heat won by 16, evening the series.

In Game 5 the Spurs countered, taking Tiago Splitter out of the starting lineup and rolling with Parker, Green, Ginobili, Leonard at the 4 and Tim Duncan for their starting lineup. The Heat’s lineup still scored well enough (LeBron had a 25/6/8 at only -5.3% but with 4 steals), but the Spurs as a team shot a profoundly stupid +16.5% as a team. Going back to Miami the Heat were one game away from elimination. And it hadn’t looked that close. Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs defense were containing LeBron, and the Heat couldn’t consistently stop the Spurs’ offense. In Game 6 LeBron went hard at the Spurs, achieving a 32/10/11 and 3 steals at the expense of -2.3% efficiency and 6 turnovers. Kawhi Leonard had a 22/11/0 with 3 steals on +16.3%, but the Spurs’ MVP was old-man Duncan, posting a 30/17/0 on +11.2% shooting. The game went down to the wire. With 28 seconds left the Spurs were up by 5. The Heat called a timeout and Popovich pulled Duncan to play Diaw, a more mobile ranged defender (as Popovich rightly expected the Heat to be shooting from 3. LeBron took the shot, missed it, the Heat got the rebound and got it back to LeBron who canned it. Spurs by 2. With 19.4 seconds remaining Kawhi Leonard got fouled. He only made 1 of 2 free throws, ensuring the Heat were only down by 3. The Heat inbounded and LeBron missed the three, the Heat again got the offensive board and Ray Allen got the pass as he backpedaled to the line. Allen caught it, rose up and sunk it. Tie game. The Heat would go on to win it in overtime.

And in Game 7, LeBron did Game 7 LeBron things, putting up a 37/12/4 on +16.3% shooting. The Spurs’ shooting went flat and the Heat pulled off the win by 7. They’d repeated as NBA champions. Was it a dominant win? No. The Spurs had outscored them by 0.7 points a game, LeBron (and Wade) had shot below league average and the Heat had needed one of the most clutch shots in history to pull it off. Don’t get me wrong: the Spurs were really good and the Heat played them toe to toe, basically winning the coin flip. But the Heat were seeming more mortal. And the Spurs, having improved considerably from their strong 2012, would expect to be even better in 2014.

10 | Spurs
9 | Heat
8 |
7 | Thunder
6 | Grizzlies
5 |
4 | Knicks, Pacers, Warriors
3 | Clippers, Rockets
2 | Nuggets
1 | Nets
0 | Jazz
-0 | Celtics, Hawks, Mavs
-1 | Bulls, Lakers, Raptors, TWolves
-2 | Wizards, Blazers
-3 | Bucks, 76ers, Hornets
-4 | Pistons, Cavaliers, Kings
-5 | Suns
-6 |
-7 | Magic
-8 |
-9 | Bobcats
-10|

2013 was a bit of a mixed bag competition-wise. On one hand, the extremes were fairly saturated, with two teams worse than -7 and four teams better than +6. On the other hand, the vast majority of the league (80%) was between +5 and -6, which made it somewhat bell-curvey. The Heat were a good bit better than most teams in 2013. They posted a +7.04 RSRS (46th on this list) and a +10.62 PSRS (50th on this list). And their league year competitiveness was slightly low. In other words, for this list, they’re pretty much an average team. But the 2013 Heat did win the championship. And for that they are placed #38. Which seems fair.

Back to the Main Thread

[homecourtloss]

Great writeup, Sansterre.

That Cavs team was one of the greatest 1st quarter starting teams and 4th quarter clutch time teams in NBA history. In game 1 vs. Orlando, they came out like a hurricane, but James sits, things go south, Orlando punches back, and they tighten up after playing carefree, expectation free (other than Bron) in the regular season. Had they won that 1st game, I think you see a different series there, but it wasn’t to be. Orlando getting hit, Dwight actually making his free throws, messed up what could have simply been a GOAT season through and through and through though there is a case for that regardless.

66 wins, 8+ SRS regular season teams, 10+ post season SRS teams are almost exclusively made out of multiple great or at least very good players. What James did that season has not been done since and might not be done again.

[colts18]

Great writeup Sansterre. I wrote a few years ago a post on LeBron 2009 being his peak. The post still holds up strong to this day. There is a good argument that 2009 LeBron was his peak.

Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61

From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0.

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8


Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.
 

Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)
3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)

If you look at some of LeBron’s highest minutes played guys, they have fallen off without LeBron.

Big Z- Out of the league 1 year later
Mo Williams- Went from 2nd option to 6th man the next year
Delonte West- Out of the league
Varejao- Same player, but injury prone
Ben Wallace- Out of the league
Wally- 2009 was his final year, out of the league
Pavlovic- 10th man after he left Cleveland
Boobie Gibson- Bench player
Joe Smith- Out of the league
Hickson- Became one of the worst players in the league before bouncing back this year

One day people will look back and be amazed that LeBron won 66 games with Mo Williams and Delonte West as his #2 and #3 options

viewtopic.php?t=1241582

[70sFan]

Another shocker, this team shows how good James truly was at his best. This team is among the least talented in top 50 but LeBron carried them to all-time level results.

[sansterre]

Great writeup Sansterre. I wrote a few years ago a post on LeBron 2009 being his peak. The post still holds up strong to this day. There is a good argument that 2009 LeBron was his peak.

Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61

From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0.

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8


Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.
 

Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)
3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)

If you look at some of LeBron’s highest minutes played guys, they have fallen off without LeBron.

Big Z- Out of the league 1 year later
Mo Williams- Went from 2nd option to 6th man the next year
Delonte West- Out of the league
Varejao- Same player, but injury prone
Ben Wallace- Out of the league
Wally- 2009 was his final year, out of the league
Pavlovic- 10th man after he left Cleveland
Boobie Gibson- Bench player
Joe Smith- Out of the league
Hickson- Became one of the worst players in the league before bouncing back this year

One day people will look back and be amazed that LeBron won 66 games with Mo Williams and Delonte West as his #2 and #3 options

viewtopic.php?t=1241582

That is a fantastic writeup - thanks for that!

[homecourtloss]

Another shocker, this team shows how good James truly was at his best. This team is among the least talented in top 50 but LeBron carried them to all-time level results.

Winning 65+ games and posting an 8+ SRS means a team almost always has multiple very good/good players behind a great player. Only exception is this Cavs team

These are all the teams ever that won 65+ games and had an SRS (margin of victory factoring in difficult of schedule) of 8+ (Bucks last year probably would have done it if not for shut down).



Teams that can win this much and win by large margins all have all-time great players (Curry, Jordan, Wilt, West, Durant, Bird, LeBron, KG, etc.) and very good second best, third best, etc., players. Who were the Cavs’ second and third and fourth best players? I think one thing that really hurt that team that goes unmentioned is Ben Wallace’s injury. He was having a great year and then when he came back, he was a shadow of himself. Pre-injury Ben might have made the difference in that ORL series.

2016 Warriors: Draymond, Klay, Iggy
1996 Bulls: Pippen, Rodman, Kukoc, Harper
1972 Lakers: West/Chamebrlain (depending on whom you thought was their best player), Goodrich, Hairston
1997 Bulls: see 1996
1967 Sixers: Walker, Greer, Cunningham
2017 Warriors: Durant (or Curry for some), Draymond, Klay, Iggy
2000 Lakers: Kobe, Horry, Rice, Harper/Fox
2015 Warriors: see 2016
1986 Celtics: McHale, Parish, Johnson, Walton [was unbelievably good this season and the defensive impact he made is all over that season]
2016 Spurs: Kawhi or Duncan, Manu, Aldridge, Parker, West, Green
1992 Bulls: Pippen, Grant
1971 Bucks: Oscar Robertson, Dandridge, McMillan
2008 Celtics: Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo
1987: Worthy, Scott, Old Kareem [great close out game, highly effective scorer even at 39 who contributed to that +7 offense), A.C. Green, Cooper
2018 Rockets: CP3, Capela, Gordon, Tucker, Ariza

[sansterre]

Bump for Team #39, the 2003 San Antonio Spurs!

[70sFan]

One of my favorite teams of all-time led by my favortie player of all-time at his absolute peak. Duncan had GOAT level season in 2003 which you described nicely in this excellent write up. Thank you!

[AdagioPace]

The question of all questions. Was Stephen Jackson really the second best player on a championship team? this might be the perfect place to discuss this mistery

[eminence]

TD the GOAT for that one. (okay, LeBron has actually passed him now, but Duncan's my #2).

[Jordan Syndrome]

Nice to see one man army's in the top 50.

[homecourtloss]

The question of all questions. Was Stephen Jackson really the second best player on a championship team? this might be the perfect place to discuss this mistery

I know you’re joking, but what a season by Duncan that was. That fourth quarter in the closeout game vs. the Lakers was something else. That was peak Duncan peaking with young Parker outplaying Kobe with a series of threes and 20 ft jump shots in the first half and then at the rim and in the paint in the second half.

But also have to point out how good Robinson still was defensively that year and wound up in the top 10 RAPM PI and top 15 NPI in 2003. Manu (top 6 NPI RAPM) showed sparks of what he was to become and stay for the next 10 years, especially in the playoffs when the Spurs were wrecking teams with him on court, Parker (young but top 20 RAPM), and Bowen were also good with Claxton and Rose being serviceable to plus players. In classic Pop style, he could get the most out of role players (like Phil Jackson) where the sum turned out greater than its parts.

[sansterre]

Bump for team #38, the 2013 Miami Heat!

[AdagioPace]

let's be frank, now we're all dying to know how far from 2013 MIA Sansterre has placed 2013 SAS

[homecourtloss]

let's be frank, now we're all dying to know how far from 2013 MIA Sansterre has placed 2013 SAS

A +20, +8, +19 (inflated by Westbrook’s absence induced beating of a monster OKC team but the Grizzlies were still pretty good), +11 postseason puts them in rarefied air as far as playoffs go.

But looking at the 2013 SAS, their regular season performance wasn’t indicative of how good they were because of how many games their best players missed or were rested and how few minutes they played. Obviously, in the playoffs, you play the best players more and we saw how good that Spurs team was.

Duncan, 69 games, 30 minutes per game
Parker, 66 games, 33 minutes per game
Manu, 60 games, 23 minutes per game (27 mpg in playoffs)
Kawhi, 58 games, 31 minutes per game
Green, 80 games, 28 minutes per game
Splitter, 81 games, 25 minutes per game
Diaw, 75 games, 23 minutes per game

With this many missed games and so few minutes played, to post a +6.7 SRS, top 7 offense, top 3 defense is pretty wild. This was always a +8 SRS, 65 win type team masquerading as a 58 win, +6.7 SRS team.

[sansterre]

With this many missed games and so few minutes played, to post a +6.7 SRS, top 7 offense, top 3 defense is pretty wild. This was always a +8 SRS, 65 win type team masquerading as a 58 win, +6.7 SRS team.

Extremely well put, and I surely intend to steal this phrasing when I write this team up, if I remember.

[colts18]

let's be frank, now we're all dying to know how far from 2013 MIA Sansterre has placed 2013 SAS

A +20, +8, +19 (inflated by Westbrook’s absence induced beating of a monster OKC team but the Grizzlies were still pretty good), +11 postseason puts them in rarefied air as far as playoffs go.

But looking at the 2013 SAS, their regular season performance wasn’t indicative of how good they were because of how many games their best players missed or were rested and how few minutes they played. Obviously, in the playoffs, you play the best players more and we saw how good that Spurs team was.

Duncan, 69 games, 30 minutes per game
Parker, 66 games, 33 minutes per game
Manu, 60 games, 23 minutes per game (27 mpg in playoffs)
Kawhi, 58 games, 31 minutes per game
Green, 80 games, 28 minutes per game
Splitter, 81 games, 25 minutes per game
Diaw, 75 games, 23 minutes per game

With this many missed games and so few minutes played, to post a +6.7 SRS, top 7 offense, top 3 defense is pretty wild. This was always a +8 SRS, 65 win type team masquerading as a 58 win, +6.7 SRS team.

I made that same observation back in 2014 before the playoffs. All of the Spurs good players had positive value xRAPM value so I knew that when their minutes upped in the playoffs, they would be the heavy favorite.

[ccameron]

2013 Heat were essentially two different teams. With Healthy Wade late January to mid march (after recovery from surgery, before bone bruise in Milwaukee that plagued him for rest of the season and playoffs), it was all time dominant team (27 game win streak happened during that time). With injured Wade, they still won a title, but obviously not as dominant as they could have been at full health. Shame we didn't get to see that in the payoffs.

[homecourtloss]

#38. The 2013 Miami Heat

They came into 2012 for revenge and ripped through the playoffs, dispatching the talented ‘12 Thunder in five games. LeBron had finally ‘figured it out’, and the Heat seemed poised to own the league for years.

But how true was that? LeBron wasn’t quite as athletically gifted as he’d been four years ago, but his shooting was at its peak and his mind/passing, while not peaked yet, was now increasingly making him a terrifying opponent late in playoff series. But the rest of the roster?

Dwyane Wade’s Advanced Stats (RS):

2009: 36.2% Usage, +3.0% shooting, 7.8% Reb, 40.3% Ast, 5.8% Stk, +10.6 BPM
2010: 34.9% Usage, +1.9% shooting, 7.8% Reb, 36.4% Ast, 5.1% Stk, +9.2 BPM
** Enter LeBron and Bosh **
2011: 31.6% Usage, +4.0% shooting, 10.2% Reb, 23.5% Ast, 4.5% Stk, +6.6 BPM
2012: 31.3% Usage, +3.2% shooting, 8.7% Reb, 27.3% Ast, 5.8% Stk, +7.9 BPM
2013: 29.5% Usage, +3.6% shooting, 8.9% Reb, 26.6% Ast, 4.7% Stk, +4.4 BPM

Wade had sacrificed his sky-high usage. But it hadn’t actually bought him much of an increase in efficiency (consistent with Ben Taylor’s theory about how first options on weaker teams often don’t gain much efficiency from adding another high usage player, because what they gain in easier touches they lose in the offense not being designed for their skills anymore). He focused more on rebounding (posting impressive seasons) and his box score defense stayed loosely similar. But the trend was clear: his usage kept going down, his efficiency was slowly dropping (and it was never that high to begin with), and his metrics were slowly trending downward. Was he still really good before 2013? Yeah . . . but the addition of LeBron seems to have made things harder on him, not easier. And Wade’s gifts were so driven by his incredible athleticism that when that started going, his value started dropping. Furthermore, Wade started to struggle a bit to stay on the court, missing 10+ games every year from 2012 on. I don’t want to say that Wade wasn’t good in 2013, he totally was. But he was increasingly at “solid wingman” level, not “legitimate Helio Alpha in his own right” level.

This wasn’t a problem in and of itself. But the rest of the Heat’s roster got thin pretty quick. Chris Bosh had become more of a high-defense mobile 4 or 5 with a solid midrange game (no knock on him, the roster needed ball-dominance like it needed a hole in the head; only room for so many people on a banana boat). Chalmers was a serviceable passing shooter, slightly better than league average. Ray Allen was a good spot-up shooter and not much else. Shane Battier was the classic little things guy who could still shoot. And Udonis Haslem was the sub-par veteran center that they didn’t yet realize that they didn’t need. What I’m trying to say was that the rest of the roster was older and not getting better; them staying at championship level was kind of dependent on Wade maintaining his performance level, and Wade was getting worse. So the Heat’s window of dominance was already narrowing, but going into 2013 nobody really realized that yet.

The one thing keeping the window open? LeBron entering his best scoring seasons... In 2013, LeBron was in pretty rarified air. And this, for a time, would compensate for Wade’s decline.

Excellent write up as per usual. I really feel that bad that Heat roster been constructed with 2020 analytics in mind (along with available players), it could have mitigated Wade’s decline better though Wade’s inability to shoot threes coupled with the fact that the offense was better with the ball in James’s hands made things tricky.

League aversge Three-point attempt rate jumped in 2013 after being about the same in 2011 and 2012 and we saw where offenses were headed. James and Wade played well together in the regular season, but because Wade wasn’t the Wade we knew anymore (and was banged up and injured) and his defense was beginning to slip, you felt in the 2013 playoffs that the Heat were waiting to sub him out and play James with shooters. Heat’s ORTG jumped from 105.4 with Wade on court to 112.7 with Wade off court. Most of those 332 playoff minutes with Wade off court had James on court. Furthermore, the defense was 6 points per 100 possessions better with Wade off court though these Wadeless lineups did play against bench units for a great number of minutes.

I think many thought that Wade getting rest, healing up would make him fine for 2014 but that wasn’t going to be the case and with a non-threatening Wade and not much retooling, 2014 Heat had no chance against the Spurs,

[trex_8063]

These were some of my favourite write-ups to date, btw. Fantastic work, good sir....