Post#10 » by prime1time » Fri May 21, 2021 3:10 am
Let's break the series down.
#1 Westbrook and Beal - We need historic performances from Russ and Beal
#2 - Wizards need to be able to guard Embiid straight up. If we have to double team Embiid we will have no chance. Len, Gafford and Lopez need to be able to manage him. I.e. 25-35 points a game. If Embiid is getting 35+ it's a major problem.
#3 - Who does Ben Simmons guard. This will be a very interesting decision for Doc Rivers. Will Simmons guard Beal or will Simmons guard Westbrook. I think ideally for the Wizards, Simmons would guard Beal. Neither Curry or Green can slow down Westbrook. And Beal's game is diverse enough where tight man-to-man defense won't stop him. If Simmons is on Westbrook, I think that will basically nullify Westbrooks game. If you were to design a perfect defender to slowdown Westbrook it would be Simmons. But in this scenario, Beal needs to go off. We need to force the 76ers to play Thybulle, taking shooting off the court. With both Thybulle and Simmons on the court, we will have an extra help defender to slowdown Embiid.
#4 - Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey. Early on in the year, we simply could not stay in front of these two guards. The 76ers lineup when Embiid is out, needs to be an advantage for us. If Milton and Maxey are able to break down the defense at will, I don't see us winning.
#5 Bertans - Bertans needs to make shots. Point Blank. If he is "on" 4 games this series, it just gives us so many ways to win.
#6 Defense - The first game against the 76ers we gave up 15 points in the 3rd quarter and 40 points in the 4th. Which Wizards defensive team will show up? If we are playing good defense, with effort and intensity it bodes very well for our chance to win.
#7 Curry - He can single-handedly beat us given the chance. You can't leave him at all. The 76ers will try to hide Curry, most likely he'll be guarding Neto. If Neto can win this individual matchup our chances to win go up significantly. At the very least Neto needs to be active.
#8 Lopez It's hard to understate how much Lopez's hookshoot has transformed the Wizards. It is not a rare occurrence to see teams double team Lopez due to his effectiveness in the post. If at any point Philly goes small, Lopez needs to be in the game to make them pay. In addition, Lopez needs to win his individual battle vs. Dwight Howard.
#9 Tobias Harris vs. Rui This speaks for itself. If Rui can win this individual matchup, we will have a great chance to win the game. And it's not that hard to see. Rui has come a long way this season.
All in all, this isn't a typical #1 vs. #8 matchup. The 76ers aren't the KD Warriors, the Magic Johnson Lakers or the LBJ Heat big 3. They are beatable. If the Wizards play well, we are good enough to beat the 76ers and it will likely take an all-time great performance by Embiid, or a shocking performance from a random 76er to beat us. Rivers has done a good job guiding them so far, but at the core of their team is a design flaw, Embiid and Simmons play styles clash. If we can apply pressure the 76ers might just break.
