Recently a friend made a claim regarding Hakeem in a discord with some isolated clips worth of support: Hakeem's assists in the 1993 playoffs were extremely valuable. So much so he might have been the most impactful creator in the league those playoffs.
To demonstrate this they posted various clips of Hakeem creating wide-open shots out of triples. To start verifying this, I figured I'd do this more methodically, going over all the assists in various games rather than simply a few plays. Down the line I hope myself or someone else can tackle this concept more comprehensively accounting for creation where the final shot was missed or spots where the play passed up an opportunity to create. But as a starting point, I figured I'd look at the highlights of 2 winner-g-home games specifically looking for assist "quality" as I've done here:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2388436&p=113860138&hilit=66#p113860138
For something tangible I am going to reuse the following countables I used above as well as with off-ball creation tracking for Bird/Curry here:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114336565#p114336565
1. Defenders taken out (DTOs) -> this is when a player entirely or near-entirely renders a defender unable to affect an offensive play themselves(excepting a reset)
2. Additional Defenders Affected (ADAs) -> this is when a player helps render a defender unable to affect an offensive play
Will be looking for these on non-baskets and on rebounds and will be counting the two as separate things. Will also count plays where there was an opportunity to take-advantage of a player's off-ball creation but the opportunity was passed on. Will not be looking for on-ball creation though I encourage any interested party to look for the same things with the ball. I also encourage any interested party to do their own tracking/vetting.
(As always I encourage the willing to vet and/or challenge what is being counted and highlight if/where they disagree)
With that out of the way, let's start tracking.
Game 5 First Round - 3 assists
Assist 1 - 5:27
Hakeem receives an entry pass and bounce passes out of a double team for a wide-open 3. Notably the entire defense is looking at Hakeem when he has the ball. He takes out 2 defenders with the pass and affects additional 2. While the pass is not particularly difficult, the defensive draw is tied to his historically great post-scoring (and questionable era-wide defensive strategy) and creates a wide-open look (ahead-of-era offensive approach/personnel helps). Great creation.
Assist 2 - 5:55
Hakeem receives an entry pass and commits a much shorter bounce-pass out of a double team. Additionally a third defender freezes looking at Hakeem before taking himself out of the play going the wrong way. Frankly, I don't feel comfortable crediting Hakeem with the third defender stumbling so I'm counting this as another 2 defenders taken out with an additional 1 hindered. Wide-open look. Good creation. (I can see the argument for great though)
Assist 3 - 7:30
Hakeem turns towards the basket, draws a triple, and takes out all three with a pass for another wide-open jumper. A modern team is not overcommitting to this degree, but nonetheless this is pretty high value creation and it's only really possible because of how terrified teams are of Hakeem as a post-scorer. Great.
Game 7 Second Round - 9 Assists
Assist 1 - 2:13
This is probably the most impressive pass I've seen from Hakeem in this tracking with Olajuwon baiting a defender closer by slamming the ball down and then immediately exploiting the opening behind. Nonetheless the real hero is Hakeem's outlier in-era gravity as Hakeem now baits a significantly more competent defense into an ill-advised triple before taking out 3 defenders for another wide-open jumper. Great.
Assist 2 - 2:27
Hakeem drives to the basket and draws 4 defenders who he bypasses with a hand-off for a wide-open layup. Again, this isn't happening today, but this is nonetheless about as valuable as an assist gets. In all the tracking I've done this way, this is the fifth play I've counted someone taking out more than 3 defenders (the others were Lebron in 2009 and 2007, Nash in 2005, and Magic in 1985) and he does it for just about the easiest shot in the sport. Great.
Assist 3 - 5:38
This is actually an extremely difficult pass (you're not making this if you're under 6'8 realistically) from under the basket. Hakeem, again, takes out 3 guys and distracts a 4th defender who proceeds to contest an open jumper late. Great.
Assist 4 - 6:55
Hakeem fires a outlet rocket that takes out 1 defender and hinders another (Maxwell deserves a fair bit of credit here too for preventing an interception). It leads to a wide-open dunk but it's not the cleanest play. I'll mark this as good.
Assist 5 - 8:15
Not an easy pass but Hakeem gets a fair bit of help from his teammates here taking out 1 defender and hindering another 2 to help create a not particularly easy transition opportunity. To his credit he also offers a fair bit of value catching a contested offensive board despite starting at a disadvantage, but just in terms of playmaking I'll grade this as decent.
Assist 6 - 9:50
Draws a double, bounces the ball to take out 2 defenders for a wide-open J. Good.
Assist 7 - 10:05
Draws one of the most aggressive doubles you'll ever see and gets the ball over to his teammate either way. That pass is impossible for most players physically and the distance he is drawing the two out so far from everyone else helps create an opening. Still, the scorer has a fair bit of work to do so I'll just mark this as good.
Assist 8 - 11:30
Hakeem draws another triple team turning towards the basket and passes out for another open 3 taking out 3 guys. Great.
Assist 9 - 11:45
Receives the ball and passes out of a double for a J. Probably could have waited till he was closer to reduce the chance of the defender recovering but whatever. Takes out 2 defenders. Decent.
Tally and Analysis
Over the 12 tracked assists, I give Hakeem 28 DTOs and 7 ADAs giving him a rate of about 2.33 defenders taken out and 2.9 defenders affected per-assist.
For some comparative frame over 8 assists in the first game of the 2009 ECF I had Lebron with 2.35 DTOs per assist and 3 defenders affected on average. Over 8 on video Jordan assists in the 5th game of the 1991 finals Jordan had 1.5 DTO's per assist and 1.9 defenders affected over average.
I am in the middle of possession-tracking creation for the 2007 finals but for the sake of the original claim/line of reasoning similar assist-tracking for Hakeem's primary creation competition in 1993 (Jordan, Stockton, Barkley, Price, Pippen) might be worthwhile.
Nonetheless from this cursory tracking I think it's at least conceivable Hakeem has an advantage in terms of creation quality over his peers not properly captured with stats like assists or stats largely derived from assist-averages (passer-rating/box-creation ect). That said, some caveats are important.
1. Quantity matters too
Hakeem is only averaging 5 assists these playoffs so even if we reduced everything to assists, Hakeem would need a gap in quality to offset players like Stockton, Price and Jordan's edge in total volume.
2. What isn't counted
Secondary creation, the effect a player has as a ball-handler, rebounding gravity, and creation which is not capitalized on are not captured here. I have an inkling some of these would help Hakeem while others hurt.
3. Misses/Turnovers
A common criticism of Hakeem is that he passed up/missed a higher volume of creation oppurtunities than his best offensive contemporaries. Turnovers are also a value drain to an extent.
4. Era/Team Context
Personally I don't think this is particularly replicable vs modern defenses and a big part of why Hakeem is able to do this is defenses not being able to account for Houston having 3-point shooters and building around Hakeem with said shooters. Hakeem is also benefitting from not having another serious scoring threat for defenses to key on. This is not to say other engines would be able to consistently draw the triples with the ball Hakeem seems to (I don't think they would), but it might be worth looking at Hakeem's creation in a year like 86 in another situation to see just how much this was a product of context.
All said, the possiblity of Hakeem's assists (and scoring) being especially valuable has me pondering some ideas.
1. Are the bigs of post-dominated leagues periods underrated as creators
Said discord friend said the likes of Shaq and Duncan were also seeing super valuable creation and I'm curious to see if it's true beyond illegal defense rules. Are historic post-scorers in general underrated as creators here? How about a Kareem or a Wilt? The opposite seemed true with the tracking I've vetted/done for players like KG and Jokic but it's possible the former simply lacked the same gravity or supporting personnel while the latter was undermined by when they played.
2. 93 Hakeem an impact era outlier?
The Rockets swing from -10 to nuetral-ish in 92 without and with Hakeem at 21 ppg and 2 apg to +4 with Hakeem playing all the games with 26 ppg and 3 apg with an offense with shooters specifically built around Hakeem as a creator under a new coach. This sort of tape makes me open to the concept that nearly all of that 14 point swing could be attributed to Hakeem's presence and then his optimization in 93. Pair that with his playoff elevation and you can get some very high-end evaluations there.
In general the possibility of Hakeem being a more potent offensive engine than I originally imagined is somewhat solidifying my confidence in him. But there's still alot more watching to be done.
