Lonzo Ball Recovery tracking thread update p76 - Lonzo Has Started Sprinting!

[Leto]

The team is not going anywhere this year. Might as well play him and see if we can increase his value. Same with Zach. Seems like it would be better just to play them and try to increase their value before the deadline.

[Rainwater]

the poor man's derrick recovery thread...extended mix!

I think Lonzo has a better shot of being his old first self when compared to Rose. The surgery Lonzo had is not as complex.

Oh you mean the "not as complex" surgery that Lonzo had that nobody has ever come back from?

That said, to me it's not just the coming back part, but the staying back part that I question. If there's a good part to the Lonzo risk profile is that his game was not predicated on jumping or sprinting.

It’s not that “nobody has never come back from the surgery” it’s that he is the first pro basketball player to ever have this type of surgery (the MACI procedure) making Ball a test subject of sorts. The lack of uncertainty (due to the lack of history with pro athletes) is the scary part, not that players have failed to come back from the surgery. And I believe there is a stat that 90% of amateur athletes who have had the MACI procedure) come back to play their sport.

And when I say that Ball is having a less complex surgery, all I am saying is that there is no structural issue with Ball’s knee. Meaning this is not a MCL or ACL tear, or some broken bone that needs to be repaired. If you took an x-ray of his knee it would look fine, it’s not until you took a MRI to see the gaps in the cartilage. And to fill these gaps in the cartilage it’s basically like putting a puzzle piece back where it belongs.

With that being said those players who have had Micro-fracture surgery, the surgery that MACI’s is now replacing, have had mixed results but obviously the goal is to have better results with the MACI procedure.

But I think I agree with you the biggest question is not if he will return but what type of player will he be when he returns. Will he be a shell of himself or will he be the same player, or just somewhere in between. It is a good thing that his game is not determined by running and jumping.

[MGB8]

Every basketball player’s game is based on running and jumping, particularly on defense, and particularly in the NBA against the best athletes in the world.

The chances that he comes back to an nba level of play after the amount of time away and slowness of recovery is.. slim. Your certainty that he will be back is baseless.

[Rainwater]

Every basketball player’s game is based on running and jumping, particularly on defense, and particularly in the NBA against the best athletes in the world.

The chances that he comes back to an nba level of play after the amount of time away and slowness of recovery is.. slim. Your certainty that he will be back is baseless.

I am not arguing if he will be NBA level but I am just saying I am pretty sure he will play again.

And I wouldn’t call it baseless either. 90% of amateur athletes (including college players) who had the surgery have come back to play their sport. Even though a shell of themselves, those who had Mico-facture surgery, like Kidd and McDyce, had long careers in reserve roles. I don’t see why this can’t happen with cartilage replacement surgeries.

If someone like Klay Thompson can come back from an ACL and Achilles tear at a far older age I don’t see why Lonzo can’t come back especially from a far less invasive surgery at a younger age.

But if you were to put a gun to my head force me to predict lonzo’s career I would say at worse I think he becomes a guy who gets vet minimum contracts similar to Rose for the rest of his career if this surgery fails.

[MGB8]

If the surgery fails, he is out of the league. If the surgery succeeds, still some chance that he is out of the league, but likely plurality would be a minimum level guy, then lesser chances as skill level goes up.

Look at Denzel Valentine and how he was impacted by injuries that were “successfully overcome,” early on (even in school). When not starting from superhuman athleticism but merely very high level, the margins for reduction are very slim. Even when you can shoot. Even when you are smart.

Lonzo has been out for over 3 years. Every time he tried to come back, the pain and tightness returned. And he is not even back to high level practice yet. How many players have been out for that long and come back? To get into NBA playing shape? With no recurrence of whatever underlying issues caused this in the first place?

[Ice Man]

When not starting from superhuman athleticism but merely very high level, the margins for reduction are very slim. Even when you can shoot. Even when you are smart.

Thus, even though a 38 year old male who works diligently on his fitness is at least 90% as quick as his 28 year old self, and maybe 95%, the NBA has only two starting players who are that age or more -- LeBron and Horford.

[ChiTownHero1992]

No matter the updates that come...I am just not optimistic at all. Even if he "can" play...at what level...just can't see him being NBA caliber after missing 3 years. He will be a shell of his former self, at best a a back up PG more likely a 3rd string PG on minimum contracts moving forward. I'd honestly be surprised if he stays the entire season on the team. I think it is more likely we start hearing talk of buyout for the season and let him move on and we get the spot back and possibly shave a tiny bit of money off.

[sco]

No matter the updates that come...I am just not optimistic at all. Even if he "can" play...at what level...just can't see him being NBA caliber after missing 3 years. He will be a shell of his former self, at best a a back up PG more likely a 3rd string PG on minimum contracts moving forward. I'd honestly be surprised if he stays the entire season on the team. I think it is more likely we start hearing talk of buyout for the season and let him move on and we get the spot back and possibly shave a tiny bit of money off.

Sure, the odds are that this is the case, but IF he underperforms and stays healthy for the season (maybe 30% chance), I'd be happy to take a flier on another multiyear deal for around the minimum. I see a slightly higher chance he becomes a useful rotation guy than I do Terry.

[ChiTownHero1992]

No matter the updates that come...I am just not optimistic at all. Even if he "can" play...at what level...just can't see him being NBA caliber after missing 3 years. He will be a shell of his former self, at best a a back up PG more likely a 3rd string PG on minimum contracts moving forward. I'd honestly be surprised if he stays the entire season on the team. I think it is more likely we start hearing talk of buyout for the season and let him move on and we get the spot back and possibly shave a tiny bit of money off.

Sure, the odds are that this is the case, but IF he underperforms and stays healthy for the season (maybe 30% chance), I'd be happy to take a flier on another multiyear deal for around the minimum. I see a slightly higher chance he becomes a useful rotation guy than I do Terry.

It would be absolutely appalling to see him on another "multi-year" contract no matter the price. He has never proven to be healthy EVER and likely never will be. At most you give him a 1 year deal repeatedly, IF he proves to even be servicable.

[madvillian]

No matter the updates that come...I am just not optimistic at all. Even if he "can" play...at what level...just can't see him being NBA caliber after missing 3 years. He will be a shell of his former self, at best a a back up PG more likely a 3rd string PG on minimum contracts moving forward. I'd honestly be surprised if he stays the entire season on the team. I think it is more likely we start hearing talk of buyout for the season and let him move on and we get the spot back and possibly shave a tiny bit of money off.

It's extremely likely that even if his knee is feeling decent that he suffers a series of soft tissue issues elsewhere. I'd say it's almost guaranteed. You can't take basically three seasons off and have your body respond when you finally come back after such a long layoff. Not for NBA players at least.

[Red8911]

No matter the updates that come...I am just not optimistic at all. Even if he "can" play...at what level...just can't see him being NBA caliber after missing 3 years. He will be a shell of his former self, at best a a back up PG more likely a 3rd string PG on minimum contracts moving forward. I'd honestly be surprised if he stays the entire season on the team. I think it is more likely we start hearing talk of buyout for the season and let him move on and we get the spot back and possibly shave a tiny bit of money off.

Agreed, even if he decided to sit for 3 years without an injury he still would never be the same after returning. 3 years for the NBA is just a very long time.

[Repeat 3-peat]

Read on Twitter

"out of 100%, I'd say I'm about 70%, good enough to play, but it could still get better"

[ChiTownHero1992]

2.5 years and tons of rehab and practice to be 70%....so that other 30% likely means another 6+ months

[PlayerUp]

2.5 years and tons of rehab and practice to be 70%....so that other 30% likely means another 6+ months

Even if he recovers and is ready to go, the problem is the Ball Family is injury prone. One injury leads to another. They can't stay healthy. Lonzo and LaMelo just aren't suited for heavy load in the NBA.

[ChettheJet]

They showed him on the FOX32 news.

He was taking jumps shots, could have been file tape from his last pronouncement. What I liked seeing either way was he didn't have any kind of brace or sleeve on his knees. It wasn't a hard workout r anything but he had enough confidence in his knee to not have anything supporting it just moving around.

I amazed that so many orthopedic surgeons post here even you seem incompetent to make diagnoses having never seen a patient. Hilarious that people so uninformed know so much about the Ball family.

[dougthonus]

I amazed that so many orthopedic surgeons post here even you seem incompetent to make diagnoses having never seen a patient. Hilarious that people so uninformed know so much about the Ball family.

I think it's silly to just say it's the Ball family, like having their DNA is the problem. That said, lots of information that doesn't require you being an orthopedic doctor examining his knee to draw some conclusions.

If you want to take the negative side:
1: No player has ever missed as much time as he will miss and come back to be the same quality player.

2: Only one player has ever missed as much (or more) time as he will miss and come back to be a relevant player (Grant Hill)

3: No player has had this procedure and been a meaningful player in the NBA again (only a couple guys I know of have had it, both were fringe guys, so I don't think this proves the procedure is bad, but there is no evidence it is good either)

4: No player that I'm aware of (though can't conclusively prove because I can't find the data) has had three procedures on their knee and successfully come back after the first two didn't yield a come back.

If you want to look at the positive side:
1: The sample size of all of these things is small, and while it's negative, it isn't large enough to draw conclusions on

2: Medicine is probably an order of magnitude better today than it was 20 years ago and still significantly better than 10 years ago. The procedure he's getting is new, and with our advances, we should be more optimistic about new procedures even without tons of backing evidence

3: The procedure does have some backing evidence at lower levels. The margins are a ton bigger there, so not fully relevant, but not fully irrelevant either

I think the negative side of this is more compelling than the positive side, especially given that he is not 100% today still after 1 year from the most recent procedure. That said, fingers crossed for Lonzo, it does seem at the very least he's gotten some relief and is in a better spot than he was.

[Ice Man]

I amazed that so many orthopedic surgeons post here even you seem incompetent to make diagnoses having never seen a patient.

Hardcore NBA fans have seen enough cases of players attempting to come back from long-term problems to set the odds. Most fans did not know what Dipo's medical diagnosis was, not exactly, but they also doubted that he would come back to full strength when he signed with the Heat a couple of years ago. That just stood to reason.

[jnrjr79]

I amazed that so many orthopedic surgeons post here even you seem incompetent to make diagnoses having never seen a patient. Hilarious that people so uninformed know so much about the Ball family.

I've never played in the NBA, and neither has the rest of the board, so I guess let's just shut it down since nobody is qualified to post about NBA basketball.

[khufure]

Keep in mind what his surgery(ies) actually were:
- 2018 meniscus tear && removal (left knee)
- 2022 meniscus tear (left knee)
- 2023 cartilage transplant (left knee)

3 surgeries on the same knee. IMO the long-term outlook is bad. As explained by a doctor

Watch on YouTube

,
there are nuances involved but we can guess the meniscus issues probably lead to the cartilage replacement. And IMO is likely to again. The upper part of the knee is like a U laying on the bottom part which is flat. The meniscus helps to stabilize impact on the knee by providing a larger area to spread impact. And basketball players have a lot of impact from constantly jumping and landing.

Science has gotten better at replacing tendons and ligaments. Meniscus replacement is available but I haven't heard of many nba players opting for that. I looked but didn't find if Lonzo got a meniscus replacement in addition to cartilage replacement. I guess bottom line -- who knows? I wish him success and health but I'm a doubter.

[Bulliever2020]

I'm not a doctor but proclaiming you're at 70% after 2.5 years of rehab doesn't sound all that encouraging to me