Likelihood of player-specific improvements over last season

[drosestruts]

Bet Pat improves

[sco]

Bet Pat improves

Ok. By how much? I think it will be tough for him to get to 20MPG this season (vs. 25 last season, 22 post ASG). I think Noa will probably average 10MPG for the season, but that number could go to 20MPG if he shows promise. Then you've got Phillips (IMO who was better than Pat last season) and Huerter fighting for minutes. There's also Terry, but nobody wants to see more of that.

[kodo]

Not on the list, I'm curious how good Ayo is next season. He finished out 2023-2024 incredibly strong when he finally got decent minutes.
Post ASG: 17 ppg 3.6 rpg 5.2 apg.

The shooting splits were the really impressive part: 50%/38%/87%. That was good for 59.6% TS.

This was with Derozan on the team, which makes it hard for anyone else to get good scoring #s...Coby averaged 18 ppg in that time frame and we saw how much more he scored the next year. He had a particularly good trio of games scoring 34, 23, 35. He doesn't chuck up a ton of bad shots to get those #s, he shot 64%, 53%, 72% in those high scoring games.

Of course, the better he plays, the more unlikely it is he'll be on the team now that Tre & Okoro are signed.

[sco]

Not on the list, I'm curious how good Ayo is next season. He finished out 2023-2024 incredibly strong when he finally got decent minutes.
Post ASG: 17 ppg 3.6 rpg 5.2 apg.

The shooting splits were the really impressive part: 50%/38%/87%. That was good for 59.6% TS.

This was with Derozan on the team, which makes it hard for anyone else to get good scoring #s...Coby averaged 18 ppg in that time frame and we saw how much more he scored the next year. He had a particularly good trio of games scoring 34, 23, 35. He doesn't chuck up a ton of bad shots to get those #s, he shot 64%, 53%, 72% in those high scoring games.

Of course, the better he plays, the more unlikely it is he'll be on the team now that Tre & Okoro are signed.

Man, Ayo, that's a tough one. It is so hard to tell who he is anymore. His offensive numbers (and game) has been wildly inconsistent over the years, and his defense IMO has been in a steady decline since his rookie year. Last year is easy to write-off to the injury, but even so, I think his path to minutes will be very hard with Jones/Okoro/Huerter playing a similar role and all likely being ahead of him on the depth chart. I could see a Huerter trade at the deadline which might open a few minutes up, but IMO Ayo will be lucky to average 12MPG next season.

It was good to see that he's fully cleared for full contact though!

[drosestruts]

Bet Pat improves

Ok. By how much? I think it will be tough for him to get to 20MPG this season (vs. 25 last season, 22 post ASG). I think Noa will probably average 10MPG for the season, but that number could go to 20MPG if he shows promise. Then you've got Phillips (IMO who was better than Pat last season) and Huerter fighting for minutes. There's also Terry, but nobody wants to see more of that.

I don't have Noa factored into the rotation to start the season. I see a 10-man rotation of:

Giddey/Jones
Wite/Ayo
Okoro/Huerter
Buzelis/Williams
Centers

on the outside looking in will be one center, noa, phillips, terry, carter.

Williams with a good camp at preseason could in my mind still win a starting spot as well. 5th starter should be open competiion between Okoro, Huerter, Williams (and I suppose Noa and Phillips).

I don't think Williams' improvements will translate in traditional counting stats. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to form for his 3P%, FT%, Ts%, DRtg, DPM, BPM, VORP, and other metrics which we are all career lows last year

[sco]

Bet Pat improves

Ok. By how much? I think it will be tough for him to get to 20MPG this season (vs. 25 last season, 22 post ASG). I think Noa will probably average 10MPG for the season, but that number could go to 20MPG if he shows promise. Then you've got Phillips (IMO who was better than Pat last season) and Huerter fighting for minutes. There's also Terry, but nobody wants to see more of that.

I don't have Noa factored into the rotation to start the season. I see a 10-man rotation of:

Giddey/Jones
Wite/Ayo
Okoro/Huerter
Buzelis/Williams
Centers

on the outside looking in will be one center, noa, phillips, terry, carter.

Williams with a good camp at preseason could in my mind still win a starting spot as well. 5th starter should be open competiion between Okoro, Huerter, Williams (and I suppose Noa and Phillips).

I don't think Williams' improvements will translate in traditional counting stats. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to form for his 3P%, FT%, Ts%, DRtg, DPM, BPM, VORP, and other metrics which we are all career lows last year

I think his 3pt shooting will be the most tested with more limited minutes (harder to stay consistent). Looking at your rotations, it just looks so obvious that the team would really benefit from shifting Vuc (assuming he's still here...yuck) to the bench.

[Infinity2152]

Does anyone think trading for Cam would be an "either or" decision with Coby? They have similar strengths and weaknesses. Just couldn't see keeping both. I get the argument that Cam is younger, and potentially cheaper, if some other team would give us a deal for Coby that netted us neutral to positive value on a combined basis.

In my opinion, absolutely not. Our backup shooting guard is Huerter, a three point shooting guard that's not a good defender. We'd be replacing him with a three point shooting guard who's not a great defender, but better on ball scorer. Same argument goes for trading for Anfernee Simons. All we need is for one of those guys to be willing to play super sixth man off the bench. Biggest problem I think is none of them can guard PG's effectively. If you have White/Simons or White/Thomas, one is going to play PG minutes to get 20+ minutes. Tre Jones is taking PG minutes. None of them can swing to forward.

It would give us insurance for Coby. I hate the fact that he will probably play out the season and we have no leverage in free agency. I'd love to make a move for Cam Thomas or do the Simons/Vucevic swap.

Here's my Vucevic prediction for this year. Last year predicted he would shoot above 36%, he shoots better every other year, lol. This year, he's coming in 10 lbs lighter, fired up at all the criticism, and will look damn good and be traded by the deadline. He'll shoot around 36-37% from three, but his block rate will increase dramatically.

Of the four choices above, think Matas has the highest chance of reaching his target (mostly dependent on him shooting 38% from three, not a crazy number).

I'd be all over that Simons/Vuc swap. Not sure what it would cost to get Cam. Ayo and/or Huerter?

Would be interesting. Probably a two for one trade from our side. Nets offering $14 mill AAV, he's looking for $28 mill. Would maybe take 3-4 year $20-22 mill AAV contract. Possible offers:

Ayo, $7.5 mill, Huerter $18 mill-$25.5 mill total, both expiring and/or could be re-signed cheaper than Thomas

Ayo, $7.5 mill, Smith $9 mill- $16.5 mill total. Like Smith, but if he's not going to play, oh well

Patrick Williams $18 mill, Jevon Carter 6.8 mill and future lottery protected first ($24.8 mill total): Carter is expiring, future first makes up for Pat contract and he could improve. On our side Thomas could likely get a lottery protected first back in trade later if we choose.

Plus we open up a roster spot

[sco]

In my opinion, absolutely not. Our backup shooting guard is Huerter, a three point shooting guard that's not a good defender. We'd be replacing him with a three point shooting guard who's not a great defender, but better on ball scorer. Same argument goes for trading for Anfernee Simons. All we need is for one of those guys to be willing to play super sixth man off the bench. Biggest problem I think is none of them can guard PG's effectively. If you have White/Simons or White/Thomas, one is going to play PG minutes to get 20+ minutes. Tre Jones is taking PG minutes. None of them can swing to forward.

It would give us insurance for Coby. I hate the fact that he will probably play out the season and we have no leverage in free agency. I'd love to make a move for Cam Thomas or do the Simons/Vucevic swap.

Here's my Vucevic prediction for this year. Last year predicted he would shoot above 36%, he shoots better every other year, lol. This year, he's coming in 10 lbs lighter, fired up at all the criticism, and will look damn good and be traded by the deadline. He'll shoot around 36-37% from three, but his block rate will increase dramatically.

Of the four choices above, think Matas has the highest chance of reaching his target (mostly dependent on him shooting 38% from three, not a crazy number).

I'd be all over that Simons/Vuc swap. Not sure what it would cost to get Cam. Ayo and/or Huerter?

Would be interesting. Probably a two for one trade from our side. Nets offering $14 mill AAV, he's looking for $28 mill. Would maybe take 3-4 year $20-22 mill AAV contract. Possible offers:

Ayo, $7.5 mill, Huerter $18 mill-$25.5 mill total, both expiring and/or could be re-signed cheaper than Thomas

Ayo, $7.5 mill, Smith $9 mill- $16.5 mill total. Like Smith, but if he's not going to play, oh well

Patrick Williams $18 mill, Jevon Carter 6.8 mill and future lottery protected first ($24.8 mill total): Carter is expiring, future first makes up for Pat contract and he could improve. On our side Thomas could likely get a lottery protected first back in trade later if we choose.

Plus we open up a roster spot

I'm still chiming in for Vuc deal, but saw one proposed by a Boston Site. Vuc/Ayo for Simons/Tillman. I'm on board with that. Comes down to being Vuc-less and getting Simons to provide Coby insurance after next season.

[FriedRise]

Not predicting numbers, but I can see Coby and Ayo having a great season. It's a contract year for them and they'll be UFAs for the first time in their career. And in the same vein, it's a contract year for Vooch, Huerter, Collins, and Dalen too, and at least the first 2 will be getting a lot of playing time.

What we know is that teams are significantly less willing to hand out big contracts, so these players are gonna need show out if they wanna secure anything close to what they're making now and not be out of the league.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Matas is the easy choice. suspect he takes a big step forward based on vibes alone...great personality. It's also his second year, he ought to just get better anyway with more experience, but I think he has star written all over him even if he doesn't ascend to it next season.

I'm taking Coby though. The actual improvement is probably more incremental than a second year player, but I think he could be an all-star if he can increases his shot volume while retaining his 3-year TS% (.583). Actually, I didn't realize how extreme his post-ASB splits were (post-Zach more likely). Upped his FGA by 3 (14ish to 17ish) while improving his TS% by nearly 60 points (.579->.634). Imagine if Coby takes 20 shots a game on .60 TS%. That doesn't seem unrealistic and they're basically Ant Edwards's numbers, ie about 28ppg, which could even earn him an all-nba appearance and some MVP votes.

I wouldn't sleep on Coby, the guy is just really dang good and has shown improvement every season. Maybe you expect a guy to 'take a leap' in his 3rd or 4th year, but he's never really had an opportunity until now. Reminds me a bit of what Niko Mirotic could have been post-Jimmy/DWade if Bobby didn't break his face and if he had an entire season to be 'the guy'. That was our 'Linsanity' when he came back from the concussion and immediately led a terrible team on a 7 game win streak before quickly having his minutes reduced and being summarily traded for the pick who would become "One Man's Trash, Another Man's Trash". Don't sleep on the post-concussion symptoms/potential TBI either. Niko probably could've been even better. Imagine having to play basketball with the guy who did it to you too. I digress.. Niko did that at age 26, Coby will be 25. Putting my Niko homerism to the side (still my second fav NBA player after my usernamesake...I like the avatar because it reminds me of both of them), Coby just seems like a better player. Better scorer certainly.

Which is to say, concussion-less Coby on a team with good vibes could really be "that guy". I think he could be Lebron-esque if he incorporates the jabstep/fishstep into his game.

[robert76]

Coby - 30%. I would love to be wrong. I'm hurt because I thought the improvement was so real and sustainable prior to the play in game. That was so depressing. I think his ability to get to the line with carry over though.

Giddey - 80%. Zach was all that was in his way. I think the jumper will keep improving. He works hard.

Matas - 100%. He has great confidence and now he's jacked too.

Vuc- I hope one day I forget he ever existed.

What if the price is that you'll never forget Felicio?

[sco]

Matas is the easy choice. suspect he takes a big step forward based on vibes alone...great personality. It's also his second year, he ought to just get better anyway with more experience, but I think he has star written all over him even if he doesn't ascend to it next season.

I'm taking Coby though. The actual improvement is probably more incremental than a second year player, but I think he could be an all-star if he can increases his shot volume while retaining his 3-year TS% (.583). Actually, I didn't realize how extreme his post-ASB splits were (post-Zach more likely). Upped his FGA by 3 (14ish to 17ish) while improving his TS% by nearly 60 points (.579->.634). Imagine if Coby takes 20 shots a game on .60 TS%. That doesn't seem unrealistic and they're basically Ant Edwards's numbers, ie about 28ppg, which could even earn him an all-nba appearance and some MVP votes.

I wouldn't sleep on Coby, the guy is just really dang good and has shown improvement every season. Maybe you expect a guy to 'take a leap' in his 3rd or 4th year, but he's never really had an opportunity until now. Reminds me a bit of what Niko Mirotic could have been post-Jimmy/DWade if Bobby didn't break his face and if he had an entire season to be 'the guy'. That was our 'Linsanity' when he came back from the concussion and immediately led a terrible team on a 7 game win streak before quickly having his minutes reduced and being summarily traded for the pick who would become "One Man's Trash, Another Man's Trash". Don't sleep on the post-concussion symptoms/potential TBI either. Niko probably could've been even better. Imagine having to play basketball with the guy who did it to you too. I digress.. Niko did that at age 26, Coby will be 25. Putting my Niko homerism to the side (still my second fav NBA player after my usernamesake...I like the avatar because it reminds me of both of them), Coby just seems like a better player. Better scorer certainly.

Which is to say, concussion-less Coby on a team with good vibes could really be "that guy". I think he could be Lebron-esque if he incorporates the jabstep/fishstep into his game.

I had higher expectations when I thought Vuc would be gone, but he really puts a low ceiling on player improvement.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

I had higher expectations when I thought Vuc would be gone, but he really puts a low ceiling on player improvement.

Good point. kinda surprised they couldn't trade him. Last year of a (relatively) cheap contract, put up good numbers last season, doesn't seem like he'll drop off next season.
Still, I bet Vuc can take his ~14ish shots per game and Coby and Matas can increase their attempts. Matas can be the third option until he proves otherwise. He should definitely be shooting more than Huerter; probably Giddey if he's still around.

[meekrab]

Hopefully the coaching staff has that tough conversation with Vuc this training camp and gets him to see that his time as a focus of the offense is over and he needs to look to get open shots for Coby and Matas.

[Stratmaster]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

At 24.5 Coby is nowhere near a top 10 player. But I pretty much agree with the rest of your assessment.

[Ccwatercraft]

Not on the list, I'm curious how good Ayo is next season. He finished out 2023-2024 incredibly strong when he finally got decent minutes.
Post ASG: 17 ppg 3.6 rpg 5.2 apg.

The shooting splits were the really impressive part: 50%/38%/87%. That was good for 59.6% TS.

This was with Derozan on the team, which makes it hard for anyone else to get good scoring #s...Coby averaged 18 ppg in that time frame and we saw how much more he scored the next year. He had a particularly good trio of games scoring 34, 23, 35. He doesn't chuck up a ton of bad shots to get those #s, he shot 64%, 53%, 72% in those high scoring games.

Of course, the better he plays, the more unlikely it is he'll be on the team now that Tre & Okoro are signed.

I feel like ayo fits fine with tre and okoro. If he's playing well he fits with about anyone we have, especially under his current contract. I have no clue how high bis contract can go in Ufa, his performance this season will determine that, but for arguments sake he's pretty much capped at mle or less.

A lot will be sorted out this offseasin I guess with.the 1-3 rotation.



I think the pf minutes situation is still the issue here, will Matas take over the 3 with big minutes or slip down to 4 for more than a few minutes. Will Noa be brought along super slow? Phillips, williams, Smith? Lots of names but nobody that is really good.

At some point a consolidation trade is needed to make progress and it has to be for an upgrade at the 4 or 5, I'd choose replacing vuc first. We can't likely trade for a true stud but we need more upside there.

[sco]

Not on the list, I'm curious how good Ayo is next season. He finished out 2023-2024 incredibly strong when he finally got decent minutes.
Post ASG: 17 ppg 3.6 rpg 5.2 apg.

The shooting splits were the really impressive part: 50%/38%/87%. That was good for 59.6% TS.

This was with Derozan on the team, which makes it hard for anyone else to get good scoring #s...Coby averaged 18 ppg in that time frame and we saw how much more he scored the next year. He had a particularly good trio of games scoring 34, 23, 35. He doesn't chuck up a ton of bad shots to get those #s, he shot 64%, 53%, 72% in those high scoring games.

Of course, the better he plays, the more unlikely it is he'll be on the team now that Tre & Okoro are signed.

I feel like ayo fits fine with tre and okoro. If he's playing well he fits with about anyone we have, especially under his current contract. I have no clue how high bis contract can go in Ufa, his performance this season will determine that, but for arguments sake he's pretty much capped at mle or less.

A lot will be sorted out this offseasin I guess with.the 1-3 rotation.



I think the pf minutes situation is still the issue here, will Matas take over the 3 with big minutes or slip down to 4 for more than a few minutes. Will Noa be brought along super slow? Phillips, williams, Smith? Lots of names but nobody that is really good.

At some point a consolidation trade is needed to make progress and it has to be for an upgrade at the 4 or 5, I'd choose replacing vuc first. We can't likely trade for a true stud but we need more upside there.

On Ayo, I'd love for him to be a 15MPG in our rotation and be able to sign him on another cheap deal. I think he could ultimately become a better starter than Okoro, but definitely would require a return to form defensively where he's slid massively from near-elite to average.

I agree on the consolidation trade idea. Our big opportunity will come at the deadline with our expirings to pair with picks.

[kodo]

It would be nice to sign Ayo back I think he's got potential, but at the same time it's insane this team costs $149M without Giddey and Coby only makes $12M. Considering Coby is $12M and Giddey is $0 right now, I don't know how we're spending this kind of money for an entire team of bench players. (Well Matas has future starter potential but he's only $5M).

[sco]

It would be nice to sign Ayo back I think he's got potential, but at the same time it's insane this team costs $149M without Giddey and Coby only makes $12M. Considering Coby is $12M and Giddey is $0 right now, I don't know how we're spending this kind of money for an entire team of bench players. (Well Matas has future starter potential but he's only $5M).

Yeah, but most of that $149M was in return for Zach and actually has value this season as expiring salary that can be paired with picks for a real upgrade or two.