Let's Talk Future Salaries

[kristov]

I am skeptical that the "Derrick Rose" rule that is being reported is 100% fact compared to the new CBA. I don't question the 30% but rather 30% of the salary cap.In the previous CBA the NBA used a different formula to determine max salaries than they do for the salary cap. Basically this is suggesting that max players are getting raises while the rest of the players are taking massive paycuts.

Max players are not getting raises. The 30% rule was there before, depending on years of service. Rose, and possibly Durant, if it applies, since his contract has not officially started are the only players effected this coming season. If you are just talking the smaller 48.04/51 factor there still may be something similar, it would put the 1st year salary at $16.4M instead of $17.4M, but that factor was also in the 25% of cap number.

30% of 51% > 30% of 48.04% and therefore equals to a raise.The language that is being presented as 30% of the salary cap which was ((BRI * 0.51) - player benefits) / 30.

It is unclear if max salaries for the next 2 seasons will be based off of new formula with lower percentage of BRI.A figure manually set by the new CBA like the last agreement in 2005 did.Or if it will be a set percentage(25,30,35) of the Salary cap.

[boogydown]

The Bulls are going to need shed cash at some point. The biggest two things we need moving forward are:

1). If we are going to let someone go, we need to at least get value back
2). We need to continue to use the MLE moving forward

There is no reason we should need to go above 80 million a year in payroll.

Summing up what I believe will happen

1). Omer Asik the Bulls Management is high on right now. If however he fails to step up this year, he could be dealt this Trade Deadline or we could S&T him in the 2012 Offseason
2). Taj Gibson will be moved regardless in the 2012 Offseason or at the 2013 Trade Deadline. Gibson is a backup PF and similar to what we did with Tyrus Thomas, I expect to happen with Taj Gibson except for a Lower 1st Round Pick to save money. Since nobody expects Gibson to step up, I think this is set in stone.
3). Kyle Korver, CJ Watson, and Ronnie Brewer are key contracts we need to move in order to get talent back being that the MLE is going to be limited to 3 million after this season. The problem is we never get lucky with this and I don't expect it to happen in the future. As a result, I expect that these guys will be simply let go either in the 2012 Offseason or 2013 Offseason and we get no value back for them. Personally, I would sign Delonte West and trade CJ Watson for a 2nd Round Pick. At least get something back in return instead of letting them go for nothing.
4). We will save the Amnesty for Boozer
5). We need to make a major trade here before the 2012-2013 Season begins. Either one which Boozer is liquidated allowing us to sign a cheaper PF or one which Noah/Deng or Noah/Boozer or Boozer/Deng and Assets are moved for a star player in return

Our goal really needs to keep our payroll low so we can continue to use the Full MLE. The problem is that with the combined salary with Deng, Boozer, Rose, and Noah, it will be next to impossible after this season until Deng expires in 2014. Until then, we will miss out on two years which we could have had a $5 a year MLE.

[musiqsoulchild]

This is a CBA tailor made for teams that have multi-skilled players. Specialists will lose their appeal or will see a decrease in their average salaries.

Korver, Boozer and Omer are the only specialists on this team. Everyone else is multi-skilled and versatile at their positions (or can play multiple positions).

This is going to be a problem going forward because that is potentially $ 21 million in salaries stuck in specialists for the next 2 years( Omer + Korver(2nd year unguaranteed) + Boozer). This is before Omer's new salary kicks in, which is probably in the $5 per range.

This screams trade to me and not amnesty.

[jc23]

How much is 7% of the BRI going to put in JR's wallet this season and future?

Whatever the number is JR needs to view it as luxury tax filler.

[musiqsoulchild]

How much is 7% of the BRI going to put in JR's wallet this season and future?

Whatever the number is JR needs to view it as luxury tax filler.

Why?

Would you be OK if it was the other way round? If JR saw a net loss in BRI, would that justify not getting an MLE addition?

We are in a new CBA. Period. All cash-flows and opportunity cost analysis should be contingent on this new set of rules.

Anything else is just emotion talking. There is a place for it, but good management should go by numbers first and then emotion.

[kyrv]

How much is 7% of the BRI going to put in JR's wallet this season and future?

Whatever the number is JR needs to view it as luxury tax filler.

Are you suggesting he is embezzling, or do you want us to figure out his split as minority owner and managing partner?

We are in a new CBA. Period. All cash-flows and opportunity cost analysis should be contingent on this new set of rules.

Anything else is just emotion talking. There is a place for it, but good management should go by numbers first and then emotion.

Crazy talk!

[jc23]

How much is 7% of the BRI going to put in JR's wallet this season and future?

Whatever the number is JR needs to view it as luxury tax filler.

Why?

Would you be OK if it was the other way round? If JR saw a net loss in BRI, would that justify not getting an MLE addition?

We are in a new CBA. Period. All cash-flows and opportunity cost analysis should be contingent on this new set of rules.

Anything else is just emotion talking. There is a place for it, but good management should go by numbers first and then emotion.

If JR said he was willing to pay the tax under the old cba at 43% of the BRI then getting 50% in this new cba should make it easier for him to pay into a more punitive luxury tax.

I hope JR shows some emotion in the coming years to pay to win.

[jc23]

I was interested into how much more JR (ownership) would make in a season under this new cba.

I mean we all know he has been in the black with this franchise for the last 25 years but i still have doubts he will really do what ever it takes to win ala Mark Cuban.

So if he is banking an extra 15 million maybe it will make it easier for him to spend.

[El Ridda]

How much is 7% of the BRI going to put in JR's wallet this season and future?

Whatever the number is JR needs to view it as luxury tax filler.

Why?

Would you be OK if it was the other way round? If JR saw a net loss in BRI, would that justify not getting an MLE addition?

We are in a new CBA. Period. All cash-flows and opportunity cost analysis should be contingent on this new set of rules.

Anything else is just emotion talking. There is a place for it, but good management should go by numbers first and then emotion.

If JR said he was willing to pay the tax under the old cba at 43% of the BRI then getting 50% in this new cba should make it easier for him to pay into a more punitive luxury tax.

I hope JR shows some emotion in the coming years to pay to win.

My guess is that the increased rev sharing will wipe out any gains that come to the bulls from the greater BRI split.

[DanTown8587]

updated the salary number for Rose, I think the Bulls could sign a two guard and the first year they would be a tax payer would be 2013-14. Then you have deals expiring for Deng then Boozer then Noah so they could possibly not have to break the team up and only the tax that one time.

[transplant]

updated the salary number for Rose, I think the Bulls could sign a two guard and the first year they would be a tax payer would be 2013-14. Then you have deals expiring for Deng then Boozer then Noah so they could possibly not have to break the team up and only the tax that one time.

Glad to hear it.

I've read a lot of this and I find myself not particularly worried. I believe that the Bulls will have to avoid some luxuries (like keeping both Brewer and Korver if they get a significant starting SG upgrade) and they'll have to pay some tax. I don't expect them to have a fire sale to shed Gibson and Asik if both are performing well and playing important roles in the team's success.

The Bulls have parlayed their good fortune in getting Rose with some smart personnel moves to put together a true contender. The future for this team is bright. It's all good.

[boogydown]

We're in a good situation until 2013.

Short Term Future - Before Start of the Season
- Use the Full MLE on a Scoring Shooting Guard
- Sign Two Vets to be our Starting Shooting Guard and 5th Big man
- Try to squeeze room in there for a Third Point Guard making up our 14th man
- Not enough time to do a trade but maybe in the future
- No need for us to exceed the Luxury Tax this season

Trade Deadline 2012
- If Asik hasn't blossomed yet, I'd consider trading him
- Push hard to make a Superstar Trade (Dwight Howard)

Draft Day 2012
- If Asik did blossom which I expect he will, I would look to trade Taj Gibson for a Draft Pick
- Try to see if you can get something for Watson, Korver, or Brewer to clear room and cap space

Free Agency 2012
- Assuming we haven't made any trades, and assuming we traded Taj Gibson, we need to waive one of Watson, Korver, and Brewer to use the $5 Million MLE before we extend Rose and Asik.
- Use the $5 MLE again
- Make a last minute push for Dwight

That would be my plan moving forward.

[Action Paxson]

We're going to need to pay the luxury tax, pretty much forever. Its the cost of doing business, and the UC is packed every night, the Bulls sell a ton of merchandise, have a great TV deal, and will play deep into the playoffs every year. Deal with it JR.

To keep spending reasonable the most important thing is smart free-agent spending and picking up good players at the end of the 1st round. We need to replace at LEAST 2 of Watson, Korver, and Brewer. In addition, we might have to replace Taj and/or Omer.

If Mirotic comes over in a couple years, and its looking like he is a legit starting 4, who can average 16 ppg, we should amnesty Boozer. Then we can re-sign Taj and Omer. We don't have thaaaat many spots to fill.

Noah/Asik
Mirotic/Taj
Deng/Butler
_____/______
Rose/_______

Now that assumes Butler is a rotation player, which is a big if. So at most you have 4 spots to fill. You need at least one of those guys to be VERY good. A solid backup PG shouldn't be too hard to find in the late 1st round. Then pickup a couple decent reserve wings. There are plenty of those every year.

Boozer will get amnestied eventually IMO. If I understand correctly, it will be available for use once throughout this agreement? Not necessarily this season?