BlogABull: The Loss of Matt Lloyd and Analytics-Based Drafting

[theanimal23]

http://www.blogabull.com/2015/5/18/8610703/why-the-bulls-no-longer-draft-successfully-the-loss-of-matt-lloyd-and

Matt Lloyd is one of the most brilliant scouts you've never heard of. It's a shame, because he helped build the Chicago Bulls franchise to what it is today.

Lloyd's official title was Director of College Scouting from 2007-2011, but he was the guy responsible for eyeing and evaluating who the Bulls would draft. He was one of the very few in the Bulls' organization that embraced an analytics-based approach in evaluating talent, keeping detailed statistical databases of draft prospects.

The Bulls had an enormous amount of success in drafting college players with Lloyd taking helm of the ship. From 2007 to 2011, here were some of the Bulls' picks under Lloyd:

Joakim Noah (9th)
Derrick Rose (1st)
Taj Gibson (26th)
James Johnson (16th)
Jimmy Butler (30th)
Lloyd left in 2012, promoted to Assistant General Manager for the Orlando Magic. After his departure, the Bulls' drafting fell off a cliff.

More at the link

[JeremyB0001]

The Lloyd narrative is a joke. It's so facile to suggest that, based on a few draft picks, that the Bulls drafting has "fallen off a cliff" due to Lloyd's departure. Lloyd's departure is frequently cited as a reason for the Teague draft pick as it is in this article. Yet he was heavily involved in the Bulls' draft process that year, as he wasn't hired by Orlando until the day after the draft. McDermott played only 300 minutes due in part to injury. To call him a failed draft pick at this point is nuts. And Bairstow was drafted 49th, a spot where players hardly ever even stick on NBA rosters. Lloyd's second-round draft pick with the Magic was Romero Osby, who has never signed so much as a 10-day contract, despite the fact that Orlando isn't exactly flush with talent. I'm not saying that Lloyd is not a good scout or that the Bulls don't miss him but this narrative is just awful.

[League Circles]

A terrible, trash article. Literally almost every sentence has issues with it for any careful reader.

It's like a bad RealGM post, but propped up as some sort of media piece.

[kingkirk]

Whether the Lloyd is a gun at what he does or not is irrelevant to me.

Claiming that since he has departed that we have failed in drafting is nonsense.

It's not a proven fact that Snell & McDermott have been terrible picks. That has yet to play out.

The Legend Of Lloyd continues to gain momentum.

[MC3]

Teague was bust for sure. But it's not like you get good player there at 29th. Snell was drafted in one of weakest draft in this era. You certainly cant judge him till his 3rd or 4th year where players made usually their biggest improvements. Those are years where you usually in Thibodeau era see what player you get. If we compare numbers by Butler and Snell in their first two years you get similar numbers. You see flashes, but you dont see consistency by both minutes or plays.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 4=&p5=&p6=

Mcdermott is also on that route.

But overall article is pure trash. Not sure if it's bashing FO, or hyping Loyd. Could be both.

[DarthDiggler69]

Whether the Lloyd is a gun at what he does or not is irrelevant to me.

Claiming that since he has departed that we have failed in drafting is nonsense.

It's not a proven fact that Snell & McDermott have been terrible picks. That has yet to play out.

The Legend Of Lloyd continues to gain momentum.

Snell Is a pretty good role player even though Thibs messes with his head. Useful player considering where he was in the draft.

McDermott hasn't really played, when he did he looked awkward because his time was so inconsistent. Its not enough to make a good decision. I want to see him play consistent minutes for at least a dozen games. Calling him a bust now is WAY too early

Nets confirmed Teague was a bust, but he could make a comeback if he works his butt off, Lloyd was on this pick

[League Circles]

This thread is like taking a post by an anonymous poster at another forum and pasting it into a new title thread here. There is no new information and the author has a handle instead of a name.

[kingkirk]

The blog goes onto state that Lloyd has helped the Magic draft Oladipo (2nd), Gordon (4th) & Payton (10th). You don't think the Bulls would have drafted some studs at those positions either?

If the Bulls has the 2nd pick in 2013, they take Dipo in a nanosecond.

I found this amusing:

In this year's upcoming draft, we should expect the Bulls to take someone from New Mexico or Iowa or some other town that Gar Forman has lived in where one of his old buddies tells him about a sleeper prospect that nobody else has heard of. If Dukan has found another diamond in the rough in Europe, maybe the Bulls can steal another international guy away from other teams.

I think it's far more likely that they don't draft anyone from Iowa State or New Mexico.

Why is it assumed that Lloyd had no say in the Teague pick? Because he wasn't scouted?

[RedBulls23]

Blog-a-Bull must read realgm.

Meanwhile the legend of Matt Lloyd continues to grow.

[DarthDiggler69]

The blog goes onto state that Lloyd has helped the Magic draft Oladipo (2nd), Gordon (4th) & Payton (10th). You don't think the Bulls would have drafted some studs at those positions either?

If the Bulls has the 2nd pick in 2013, they take Dipo in a nanosecond.

I found this amusing:

In this year's upcoming draft, we should expect the Bulls to take someone from New Mexico or Iowa or some other town that Gar Forman has lived in where one of his old buddies tells him about a sleeper prospect that nobody else has heard of. If Dukan has found another diamond in the rough in Europe, maybe the Bulls can steal another international guy away from other teams.

Its logical to get good picks when you're in the lottery every year

[MrSparkle]

Was Snell that bad of a pick? At 20 , it's hit-or-miss. 6 other teams skipped on Gobert after Snell was taken. Plumlee and Dieng are serviceable bigs but not game-changers. Tim Hardaway Jr. started strong but now is basically on par with Snell as a prospect. Tony does have what it takes to be a starter in this league, ala Danny Green. I guess what's funny, is we really needed a backup center and that draft was raining decent centers, a position typically very hard to fill in the late 1st-round.

Unless McDermott comes back and goes ham on the league Larry Bird-style, I ultimately think he was a mediocre pick. Never thought this Bulls regime would fall suckers to using a lotto pick on an All-American NCAA guy with limited NBA-athleticism... let alone for 2 picks in a "strong" draft.

I look at the previous draft list, and it's not like it's unbelievably in-genius. Noah and Rose were no-brainer picks, Taj and Jimmy were steals, but Johnson was a bust.

But verdicts out on Snell and McDermott. Too soon to call them bad picks.

[coldfish]

Whether the Lloyd is a gun at what he does or not is irrelevant to me.

Claiming that since he has departed that we have failed in drafting is nonsense.

It's not a proven fact that Snell & McDermott have been terrible picks. That has yet to play out.

The Legend Of Lloyd continues to gain momentum.

The minutes and Thibodeau thing has taken on a life of its own with the young guys. Its to the point where people seem to believe that there is a good chance that Snell and McDermott work out.

Let's be objective. When a rookie comes in and plays as poorly as Snell and McDermott have early on, even in limited minutes, they are usually not going to turn into anything other than a borderline rotation player. Are there anecdotal stories of something different? Of course. Are Snell and McDermott guaranteed to be busts? No.

That said, the reality is that the odds favor them being busts at this point. This isn't a 50/50 unknown type thing. The arrow is pointed decidedly down on these guys.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... offset=200

That's a list of rookie years with PER under 9 in limited minutes. There are some people there who panned out but close to 90% of them did not.

[Red Larrivee]

When did this Matt Lloyd Urban Legend become a thing?

Since Lloyd became the assistant GM in Orlando they've drafted:

Andrew Nicholson
Kyle O'Quinn
Victor Oladipo
Elfrid Payton
Aaron Gordon

Let's not pretend he's some Draft Savant.

[stepbackjftw]

The Lloyd narrative is a joke. It's so facile to suggest that, based on a few draft picks, that the Bulls drafting has "fallen off a cliff" due to Lloyd's departure. Lloyd's departure is frequently cited as a reason for the Teague draft pick as it is in this article. Yet he was heavily involved in the Bulls' draft process that year, as he wasn't hired by Orlando until the day after the draft. McDermott played only 300 minutes due in part to injury. To call him a failed draft pick at this point is nuts. And Bairstow was drafted 49th, a spot where players hardly ever even stick on NBA rosters. Lloyd's second-round draft pick with the Magic was Romero Osby, who has never signed so much as a 10-day contract, despite the fact that Orlando isn't exactly flush with talent. I'm not saying that Lloyd is not a good scout or that the Bulls don't miss him but this narrative is just awful.

Maybe he purposely picked teague to troll the bulls. He knew he was getting hired by the magic so he didn't want the bulls to get any better.

[TheStig]

Whether the Lloyd is a gun at what he does or not is irrelevant to me.

Claiming that since he has departed that we have failed in drafting is nonsense.

It's not a proven fact that Snell & McDermott have been terrible picks. That has yet to play out.

The Legend Of Lloyd continues to gain momentum.

We drafted two spots behind the Magic this year and they got a starting pg and we got a 12 man.

Not saying that McD is going to ride the bench his whole career but lets not act like something isn't missing. I just hope the Bulls realize it and bring someone with those skills in.

[Rerisen]

Drafting is the last leg of Gar and Pax's support. Certainly not trades or finding the missing pieces in FA. If they can't do that well any longer, why are they here.

Actually the team is at a point now, with a short window, where drafting isn't going to save this team in the next couple years anyway. They have to find already proven dependable players to fill the couple main depth holes.

[League Circles]

Most players suck. Most #20 picks, most #30 picks, most #12 picks. There are generally maybe 5 players in each draft who eventually become plus players in the NBA.

[kingkirk]

Another thing that pisses me off about this topic is the narrative that suggests Lloyd gets credit for the good picks, and that the FO gets the (dis)credit for drafting the duds (2 of which cannot be labelled busts).

The Bulls had an enormous amount of success in drafting college players with Lloyd taking helm of the ship. From 2007 to 2011

None of that is attributable to the FO?

The blog states that Gar just goes to his buddies, asks who is up and coming and takes them from schools he has a connection to. Ok, nice story, but why didn't Gar do this when Lloyd was here?

If he is such a maverick now that just does things based on who he knows and not making the best decision for the team, why would he defer the decision making to Lloyd in previous seasons and not override and take some Iowa State product during 2007-11?

I can't wait to read a blog that suggests that the Bulls wanted to move up in the draft to take on Royce White because Fred Hoiberg told Gar that he would be a superstar.

[SearsTower]

Teague was bust for sure. But it's not like you get good player there at 29th. Snell was drafted in one of weakest draft in this era. You certainly cant judge him till his 3rd or 4th year where players made usually their biggest improvements. Those are years where you usually in Thibodeau era see what player you get. If we compare numbers by Butler and Snell in their first two years you get similar numbers. You see flashes, but you dont see consistency by both minutes or plays.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 4=&p5=&p6=

Mcdermott is also on that route.

But overall article is pure trash. Not sure if it's bashing FO, or hyping Loyd. Could be both.

Players drafted after Snell include Dieng, Plumlee, Solomon Hill, Hardaway Jr, GOBERT, among some others. Snell might eventually turn out better than those guys but that's a pretty glaring list if Snell is indeed a bust with a new coach.

Players drafted after Teague include Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, , among some others who are actually in the league and contributing in some way to a team.

Right now, I'm most excited about this team getting a new head coach and truly seeing what we have in Snell (third season) and McDermott. But if those two guys don't pan out, considering who was on the board when they were drafted, then that's not a very good recent track record for the FO.

[League Circles]

Drafting is the last leg of Gar and Pax's support. Certainly not trades or finding the missing pieces in FA. If they can't do that well any longer, why are they here.

Actually the team is at a point now, with a short window, where drafting isn't going to save this team in the next couple years anyway. They have to find already proven dependable players to fill the couple main depth holes.

I agree we need to get legit players now. I want to trade multiple draft picks this summer and I'm fine if Gar and Pax are fired.

That said, all that matters is what kind of team a FO puts on the floor, short and long term both being considered. It's completely unimportant what acquisition mechanism is used to put a team together. So it wouldn't matter a bit if a FO were "bad at trading" if they put together an awesome team.