Post#147 » by MrSparkle » Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:51 pm
Rose will be a very important piece in making a deep playoff run, but you basically plan on him being the x-factor. You don't wager your odds on an x-factor, you take it into consideration for making a safe bet even safer.
Between Pau and Jimmy, Taj and Noah, the potential rise or fall of Niko, the many assets (picks, Doug, expiring contracts, rotation player contracts), Cavs' health vulnerability, we have enough pieces to contend if a trade is made to address the log-jams and positions of concern, regardless of Rose's wild low-to-high/unpredictable production. That's the big story. Standing pat, I don't think there's any way this team can possibly contend unless Niko/Snell/Doug make unrealistic improvements all across the board (shooting percentage, defense, drawing fouls).
You can hope for Rose playing some fine basketball come spring-time, but I guarantee there's simply not enough in his tank to lead this aging Bulls roster in the deep-playoffs, past any juggernaut teams. You can see the way he plays; the second he turns up that gear, to slash into the rim or play with harder cuts, he puts his ankles and knees at major risk. He's not a pure shooter, so he won't win you 4-out-of-7 games unless he's scoring in the paint too. What he can do is put a damn fine Bulls team over-the-edge. If we have better, prime veteran 2-way options at backup PG and starting SF, then we become a threat to Cleveland.
So it's just gonna be a tough trade deadline for GarPax; they have some risky decisions to make. Stand pat, and you essentially whimper to another playoff exit and plan for making a free agency splash in 2017, which is actually the same strategy Pax started 12 years ago. Get a Plan B team and wait 2 years for the cap-room to add the missing piece. Create a promising team with a promising future that can't ever make the Finals. By the time some combination of our mid-ceiling players (Niko, Doug, Snell, Portis) becomes a consistent force, Noah, Pau, Dunleavy and possibly Rose will be below-tier or retired players.
We have a LOT of trade assets that actually impact the on-court production very little:
Niko -- Promising player who we plan on keeping and building around, but truth is you don't nuke the PF position if you lose him. Taj is still a capable starter.
Doug -- I don't know. Hard to gauge this guy's league value. Is he in Fredette zone, or Redick? My opinion is that because Pau and Niko are the best PF/C scorers we can throw out there, and our starting PG is a defensively inconsistent (Rose), Doug is basically thrown into one of the worst possible situations. I can see he can score more creatively than Korver, but we also see his destructive defense if there aren't skilled defensive teammates to compensate. There's a place for him in the league, but the Bulls are a rough spot. He could have trade value.
Portis, Dunleavy, Sac. 1st, Chi. 1st -- Exactly zero production so far this season. These are good trade assets (MDJ's contract is reasonable, for a team wanting a smart vet. SF).
They wagered that Niko, Snell and Doug would develop as fast as Barnes, Dray Green and Klay ... or Leonard, Danny Green... But both the old and young Warriors/Spurs players were better.
If you want to contend, you typically keep your best WIN-NOW players. Here'd be my order:
Jimmy
Pau
Rose
Niko
Noah
Taj
The rest of the pecking order is more convoluted and situational. If you can add a major star talent via consolidation trade without losing more than 1 of the above guys, ideally none of them... Then you're looking at a Detroit (Rasheed), Lakers (Pau) kind of a situation.