How Many Wins, 1st guess

[drosestruts]

the third-string center is clearly Adama Sanogo and I'm not sure why everyone skips over that.

I mean, I'm not overly excited about him myself, but he does exist. 8.5 rebounds in 18 minutes per game in summer league.

[Jvaughn]

If we break 32, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We haven't done anything to improve the team.

[jacoby1us]

If we break 32, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We haven't done anything to improve the team.

Dude my sentiments exactly, this is the same team with additions and subtractions that do not move the needle at all. So how do we jump over teams that are already ahead of us or that actually improved that missed the postseason as well? A lot of people on this board live in a facade, its cool to be an optimist, but please have a reason to be.

Anything over our record from last year would be a miracle, I don't expect anything short of a play-in game for this roster.

[Stratmaster]

If the Bulls are not a .500 team this season, Billy Donovan should be fired by the trade deadline. There is absolutely no reason for this team not to be .500. Not that .500 is any big shakes, but anything less would be ridiculous for the level of talent on the roster.

[jnrjr79]

If the Bulls are not a .500 team this season, Billy Donovan should be fired by the trade deadline. There is absolutely no reason for this team not to be .500. Not that .500 is any big shakes, but anything less would be ridiculous for the level of talent on the roster.

Donovan was just extended. He's not going anywhere. If the team falters, expect deadline trades.

[Stratmaster]

If the Bulls are not a .500 team this season, Billy Donovan should be fired by the trade deadline. There is absolutely no reason for this team not to be .500. Not that .500 is any big shakes, but anything less would be ridiculous for the level of talent on the roster.

Donovan was just extended. He's not going anywhere. If the team falters, expect deadline trades.

Yep. The key word was "should".

[TheJordanRule]

If we break 32, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We haven't done anything to improve the team.

Dude my sentiments exactly, this is the same team with additions and subtractions that do not move the needle at all. So how do we jump over teams that are already ahead of us or that actually improved that missed the postseason as well? A lot of people on this board live in a facade, its cool to be an optimist, but please have a reason to be.

Anything over our record from last year would be a miracle, I don't expect anything short of a play-in game for this roster.

Come on guys. Where's the team spirit? Carter and Craig were good acquisitions. We were a relatively small win streak away from the 6th to 8th playoff births. If Coby continues his upward trend, we might even reach the 4th or 5th spot.

[Ccwatercraft]

If we break 32, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We haven't done anything to improve the team.

Dude my sentiments exactly, this is the same team with additions and subtractions that do not move the needle at all. So how do we jump over teams that are already ahead of us or that actually improved that missed the postseason as well? A lot of people on this board live in a facade, its cool to be an optimist, but please have a reason to be.

Anything over our record from last year would be a miracle, I don't expect anything short of a play-in game for this roster.

Come on guys. Where's the team spirit? Carter and Craig were good acquisitions. We were a relatively small win streak away from the 6th to 8th playoff births. If Coby continues his upward trend, we might even reach the 4th or 5th spot.

I'm with TJR on this.. I mean we're not perfect, but our pickups and extensions were all solid moves, no big splash sexy trade but very practical and efficient moves. The only one I disagreed with was that Ayo is overpaid, but a year from now I might be saying his contract is a steal.

Again, not perfect but 32 win predictions on a 40 win team that whose worst loss was DJJ and we improved the roster construction and hopefully our shooting profile. Most of the east has been somewhat stagnant so far except maybe the celtics, indy.

There's no reason to assume we will regress.

This championship or bust mentality is like racing through traffic to get stuck at the same red light like the other 90% of the league

[CROBulls]

I dont see much changing. Young guys will get slightly better, older guys will get slightly worse. Just same of the same.

[OzmanTheWizard]

I’ll go with 41-41. This team is probably a play-in team at best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kodo]

Tankathon has us at the 20th toughest schedule this season, significant drop from last season.

[jacoby1us]

Dude my sentiments exactly, this is the same team with additions and subtractions that do not move the needle at all. So how do we jump over teams that are already ahead of us or that actually improved that missed the postseason as well? A lot of people on this board live in a facade, its cool to be an optimist, but please have a reason to be.

Anything over our record from last year would be a miracle, I don't expect anything short of a play-in game for this roster.

Come on guys. Where's the team spirit? Carter and Craig were good acquisitions. We were a relatively small win streak away from the 6th to 8th playoff births. If Coby continues his upward trend, we might even reach the 4th or 5th spot.

I'm with TJR on this.. I mean we're not perfect, but our pickups and extensions were all solid moves, no big splash sexy trade but very practical and efficient moves. The only one I disagreed with was that Ayo is overpaid, but a year from now I might be saying his contract is a steal.

Again, not perfect but 32 win predictions on a 40 win team that whose worst loss was DJJ and we improved the roster construction and hopefully our shooting profile. Most of the east has been somewhat stagnant so far except maybe the celtics, indy.

There's no reason to assume we will regress.

This championship or bust mentality is like racing through traffic to get stuck at the same red light like the other 90% of the league

Ask yourself the following questions below:

- Did we make any moves to move the needle?
- Who does this team move past in the Eastern Conference with the same roster/key players?

If you cannot confidently answer these questions then it is safe to say this team will be a mirror image of last season give or take a close win or two. I wouldn't expect much from this roster honestly.

[sco]

Come on guys. Where's the team spirit? Carter and Craig were good acquisitions. We were a relatively small win streak away from the 6th to 8th playoff births. If Coby continues his upward trend, we might even reach the 4th or 5th spot.

I'm with TJR on this.. I mean we're not perfect, but our pickups and extensions were all solid moves, no big splash sexy trade but very practical and efficient moves. The only one I disagreed with was that Ayo is overpaid, but a year from now I might be saying his contract is a steal.

Again, not perfect but 32 win predictions on a 40 win team that whose worst loss was DJJ and we improved the roster construction and hopefully our shooting profile. Most of the east has been somewhat stagnant so far except maybe the celtics, indy.

There's no reason to assume we will regress.

This championship or bust mentality is like racing through traffic to get stuck at the same red light like the other 90% of the league

Ask yourself the following questions below:

- Did we make any moves to move the needle?
- Who does this team move past in the Eastern Conference with the same roster/key players?

If you cannot confidently answer these questions then it is safe to say this team will be a mirror image of last season give or take a close win or two. I wouldn't expect much from this roster honestly.

My rationale would be that a number of our losses were driven by starting Ayo and Pat last year. Adding two more complementary role players may have a bigger impact than stats alone might suggest. To a lesser extent, not playing a 6'5 guy at backup C will help too. Improvements by White and Pat could help too.

[kodo]

You could argue that the Bulls with Lavine healthy and Ayo/Williams to the bench was the 3rd best team in the league by net rating. So the continuity here would be a top 5 team.

I would rather blow it up sooner, but they are not making things up when talking about the team being good post ASG.

[chitownsports4ever]

Come on guys. Where's the team spirit? Carter and Craig were good acquisitions. We were a relatively small win streak away from the 6th to 8th playoff births. If Coby continues his upward trend, we might even reach the 4th or 5th spot.

I'm with TJR on this.. I mean we're not perfect, but our pickups and extensions were all solid moves, no big splash sexy trade but very practical and efficient moves. The only one I disagreed with was that Ayo is overpaid, but a year from now I might be saying his contract is a steal.

Again, not perfect but 32 win predictions on a 40 win team that whose worst loss was DJJ and we improved the roster construction and hopefully our shooting profile. Most of the east has been somewhat stagnant so far except maybe the celtics, indy.

There's no reason to assume we will regress.

This championship or bust mentality is like racing through traffic to get stuck at the same red light like the other 90% of the league

Ask yourself the following questions below:

- Did we make any moves to move the needle?
- Who does this team move past in the Eastern Conference with the same roster/key players?

If you cannot confidently answer these questions then it is safe to say this team will be a mirror image of last season give or take a close win or two. I wouldn't expect much from this roster honestly.

Those are questions for people who dont follow the team not the ones who have seen it before injuries set them back

In 2022 we won 46 games and finished 6th in the east
In 2023 we won 40 games and finished 10th in the east

Most of those teams did nothing to move past us as there was only 3-5 gap even when we won 46 games but it fell back due to injuries and so it stands to reason that when healthy its right there in the scrum and may not be top 2 but certainly has a shot at 3-6 along with several other teams.

[Ccwatercraft]

I'm with TJR on this.. I mean we're not perfect, but our pickups and extensions were all solid moves, no big splash sexy trade but very practical and efficient moves. The only one I disagreed with was that Ayo is overpaid, but a year from now I might be saying his contract is a steal.

Again, not perfect but 32 win predictions on a 40 win team that whose worst loss was DJJ and we improved the roster construction and hopefully our shooting profile. Most of the east has been somewhat stagnant so far except maybe the celtics, indy.

There's no reason to assume we will regress.

This championship or bust mentality is like racing through traffic to get stuck at the same red light like the other 90% of the league

Ask yourself the following questions below:

- Did we make any moves to move the needle?
- Who does this team move past in the Eastern Conference with the same roster/key players?

If you cannot confidently answer these questions then it is safe to say this team will be a mirror image of last season give or take a close win or two. I wouldn't expect much from this roster honestly.

Those are questions for people who dont follow the team not the ones who have seen it before injuries set them back

In 2022 we won 46 games and finished 6th in the east
In 2023 we won 40 games and finished 10th in the east

Most of those teams did nothing to move past us as there was only 3-5 gap even when we won 46 games but it fell back due to injuries and so it stands to reason that when healthy its right there in the scrum and may not be top 2 but certainly has a shot at 3-6 along with several other teams.

I guess it sums it up well enough.

Carter > ayo, dragic

Craig > javonte, djj

I don't see regression with our elder statesmen yet, I see progression with our younger role players.

It's a better roster than we started with last year.

[HearshotKDS]

We just finished the last game of the regular season, and have a pretty good idea of how the "post" season will end. Someone in the last game thread asked to bump the win projection thread and I think its an interesting thought exercise for the 15-20 people left on this board to look at what we predicted, see what we got right/wrong, and "find the whys" as one of the recent failed Bears coaches liked to say.

I hate to be a doomer, but I see a 45-50 win quality team that gets hit with the injury bug, dropping their actual record to 36-40 wins but still too much talent on team to miss the playins.

A bit of a moment to spike the football, but I guessed the win total traunch correctly and believe I also correctly predicted the reasoning behind why they hit that traunch and not a higher one. Looking back in this thread there was a ton of assumptions made that one of the healthier teams in the league in 2022 would remain so but alas that was not to be.

[dougthonus]

We just finished the last game of the regular season, and have a pretty good idea of how the "post" season will end. Someone in the last game thread asked to bump the win projection thread and I think its an interesting thought exercise for the 15-20 people left on this board to look at what we predicted, see what we got right/wrong, and "find the whys" as one of the recent failed Bears coaches liked to say.

I hate to be a doomer, but I see a 45-50 win quality team that gets hit with the injury bug, dropping their actual record to 36-40 wins but still too much talent on team to miss the playins.

A bit of a moment to spike the football, but I guessed the win total traunch correctly and believe I also correctly predicted the reasoning behind why they hit that traunch and not a higher one. Looking back in this thread there was a ton of assumptions made that one of the healthier teams in the league in 2022 would remain so but alas that was not to be.

My comments were:

I think there are a few things:
1: Health regressing to the mean has a major chance to hurt us
2: Luck in close games regressing to the mean has a major chance to help us
3: The roster feels better overall

I think we'll end up around 42-45 wins. Interesting, Vegas is really low on the Bulls, quick look was 37.5 over under on the year. That seemed ridiculously low given we were 40 last year and seem stronger entering this year, even if not a ton stronger.

#1: completely correct (Though way worse than I thought)
#2: completely correct (Though way better than I anticipated)
#3: completely off (Craig/Carter were total non factors)

[MrSparkle]

I think AKME actually put together a fine team: good depth chart, good salary, good trade pieces -- especially considering Lonzo's injury/dead-cap. IMO a top-notch coach would have this team at 46-54 wins (Pop, Spo, Carlisle).

I'm pretty worried that Billy's not going to be able to manage the correct rotations to win a lot of games. I'm foreseeing a lot of closing line-ups that'll have some combos of Jevon, Vuc, Caruso (not to mention Ayo), when playing "big" with Coby or Caruso at PG, Patrick at SF, Drummond at C would be a more appropriate line-up. Considering we play some of the most uninteresting half-court ball, I don't understand why Zach/Demar/Pat/Craig/Vuc wouldn't be given some consideration. What's the worst thing that'll happen... Zach or Demar try to isolate?

I just don't have much faith in wins if Billy's gonna try small ball again, for 82 games. I get it- Bev/Caruso/Zach/Demar/Vuc looked good on adv. stat sheets, and they played competently that last month of the season. But if you're giving up a combined 10-15" and 30-50 pounds to the other team, and ball-handling, shooting and speed aren't even your squad's calling card, then why are you giving up all that size? You need to play/develop your best shooters and most mobile AND big players.

So we'll see. In an ideal world, Jevon is like P-Bev with 3P touch. But I'd have to question why the contender Bucks would let such a player go for $6m. They seem to have the right idea, in that they're loaded with bigger/taller players at every position, who also actually shoot the ball better than all our guys. I'm fundamentally confused by the decision to double down on undersized, mediocre shooters. I hope I'm wrong about Jevon, but I just don't see him coming to Bulls' spacing and shooting 40% with higher volume and higher pressure. Craig was a step in the correct direction, but I also don't have much faith in a 33yo vet min journeyman who was let go by a short-handed contender.

We still don't have 1 guy who can actually match up with Giannis. I mean, Billy had DJJ as an option, but didn't seem interested in actually playing him in a bigger role. I get that this easier said than done, but it doesn't help when on top of Giannis bullying our sandbags-for-feet bigs and Pat/Demar, we're also giving up physicality and length to Grayson Allen and Connaughton. That wouldn't happen if you just played your taller options at 1-4.

So unless everything clicks in a Disney Mighty Ducks kind of a way (which would heavily involve PW and Coby finally stepping up into full-time starters: 15+ PPG scorers with net-neutral defense), reality is that this team is going to just lose with the same basic math: worse 3P%s, worse rebounding, giving up easy points in the paint, giving up more open 3Ps. Each solution to these problems opens the other hole.

I kinda smell 41 wins with some trades at the deadline. I still think free agency was a bit of a success, given that we didn't lose one single asset, but rather resigned everybody to a value deal. But now that that's done, some difficult trades have to be made. We have way too many undersized guards and slow-footed Cs, 1-way iso wings, and no primary playmaker. Like the prior year, you have to decide between Caruso/Jevon/Ayo/Coby - in an ideal world, we have just 1 of these guys on the bench, and an actual star caliber PG. Not 4 of them sharing minutes at the forward position.

Close but no cigar. Maybe adjust the first paragraph. I’ll give a little more credit to Billy and less to the roster, although I still think that playing Vuc way more than Drummond was and is a big mistake. I don’t think Zach made us much better, but his unexpected injury and dysfunctional attitude, non-tradeability did cost a reasonable amount of games.

I am past the points of surprise or shock, but it is nevertheless stunning we finished this season with the same everything.

[coldfish]

I'm going to agree with Vegas. I would not be surprised if Vuc, Lavine or Demar miss a fair number of games this year. I also think that the team is simply a year older and isn't going to be able to play the high energy defense that BD wants (and that frequently kept them in games) every night.

This is a team that just doesn't have that fundamental basis to allow them to win games night in and night out. They don't have overwhelming size, aren't going to win games by outshooting their opponent, no superduperstar to carry them when everyone is off. Its a basic recipe for win a game when the energy and shooting is there, lose a game when its not.

I also don't see a huge plethora of terrible teams that mediocre teams frequently feast on. Those seasons where there are a ton of 45 win teams often have a bunch of 25 win teams that fed them. When the team is off, most teams in the NBA are going to be capable of beating them.