How Many Wins, 1st guess

[madvillian]

Hard for me to say Miami and Knicks are likely better than Chicago. Both those teams over achieved and lost more (at least relative to Chicago) than they added in FA. I'd put them with Chicago in that tier with BK, ATL, Indy.

Miami is still just a massive TBD due to the Dame trade potential, as well.

With New York, I could easily see the inevitable Thibs burnout hitting, so I think the Bulls could be better, but I'm not 100% convinced they will be.

i was thinking that as well. plus I think Brunson will come back to earth some. they had a bit of a charmed season last year.

[jacoby1us]

Not sure how we surpass our 22-23 record with the exact same roster.........
Unless some serious injuries hit the Eastern Conference teams ahead of us we will be looking in from the outside again.

[FriedRise]

Not sure how we surpass our 22-23 record with the exact same roster.........
Unless some serious injuries hit the Eastern Conference teams ahead of us we will be looking in from the outside again.

The potential improvements are all in the margins because that's all AK changed with the roster:
- the addition of complementary players in Carter and Craig. the hope here is we can produce closer to the way the team played after we picked up Pat Bev, who obviously was a complementary veteran to Zach, Vooch, and DeMar. I don't think anyone can expect the highly touted 14-9 record and being top 5 in all the advanced ratings as anything sustainable, but if they found something there, that was a 50-win pace. they've found success twice now with this core: 1) how we looked when Lonzo was playing, 2) the Pat Bev effect - so it's not like they don't know what works
- the number of games that went against us last year due to luck factor (game winners, referees, dudes constantly draining tightly contested 3s) no matter how well we played. every team goes through this, but it felt like we were on the wrong end of it too many times
- a more modern shooting profile - trading some of those 2s for more 3s
- young guys taking a step forward
- other teams standing still or getting worse, which could be worth a few extra Ws

We were super lucky health-wise though (minus Lonzo obviously), so none of the above is gonna matter if our primary guys have to miss an extended time and our deep inexperienced bench has to play rotation minutes.

[jacoby1us]

Not sure how we surpass our 22-23 record with the exact same roster.........
Unless some serious injuries hit the Eastern Conference teams ahead of us we will be looking in from the outside again.

The potential improvements are all in the margins because that's all AK changed with the roster:
- the addition of complementary players in Carter and Craig. the hope here is we can produce closer to the way the team played after we picked up Pat Bev, who obviously was a complementary veteran to Zach, Vooch, and DeMar. I don't think anyone can expect the highly touted 14-9 record and being top 5 in all the advanced ratings as anything sustainable, but if they found something there, that was a 50-win pace. they've found success twice now with this core: 1) how we looked when Lonzo was playing, 2) the Pat Bev effect - so it's not like they don't know what works
- the number of games that went against us last year due to luck factor (game winners, referees, dudes constantly draining tightly contested 3s) no matter how well we played. every team goes through this, but it felt like we were on the wrong end of it too many times
- a more modern shooting profile - trading some of those 2s for more 3s
- young guys taking a step forward
- other teams standing still or getting worse, which could be worth a few extra Ws

We were super lucky health-wise though (minus Lonzo obviously), so none of the above is gonna matter if our primary guys have to miss an extended time and our deep inexperienced bench has to play rotation minutes.

Thank you for that perspective. My main concern outside of our inconsistent perimeter scoring is our inability to defend and rebound. Our inability to rebound and keep the opposition off the boards should have been more than alarming to our leadership moving into the offseason.

- Bulls ranked 13th in Rebounds allowed per game at 50.9
* The last three games of the season the Bulls opposition averaged almost 64 rpg!

This stat alone can contribute to a LOT of the Bulls losses last year as they were unable to keep the opposition from having second and third possessions consecutively. These small ball lineups for the Bulls have proven year in and year out to be detrimental to the long-term success of the team. I don't understand why our leadership refuses to sign a legit PF (6'9" and above) instead of using an undersized Patrick Williams. This stubborness probably contributed to the delayed development of his overall game and the injuries he has sustained.

[DuallyNoted]

29

[Rose2Boozer]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

[Andi Obst]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

"Overplaying" Caruso is ridiculous. Agree with the rest, though.

[Rose2Boozer]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

"Overplaying" Caruso is ridiculous. Agree with the rest, though.

If Billy Donovan is playing Caruso at the four it's a overplay. Ideally, I think dude is a 15-20mpg reserve two or three.

[Andi Obst]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

"Overplaying" Caruso is ridiculous. Agree with the rest, though.

If Billy Donovan is playing Caruso at the four it's a overplay. Ideally, I think dude is a 15-20mpg reserve two or three.

15-20 minutes is just not enough for a player with such a massive impact. He's is by far the best defender on a team that has only been somewhat competitive because of its defense.

AC played around 1600 minutes in 22/23 and the Bulls had a +6 NetRTG in those minutes. Absolutely nothing indicates "this guy should play less."

[jacoby1us]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

One too many variables that doesn't even include our undersized lineups being outrebounded costing us valuable possessions.
How can you even think this team can be better than last year with the same version returning. The two players added are nothing more than role players who shouldn't be expected to move the needle. This roster is the true definition of a treadmill team.

[Rose2Boozer]

46-50 wins.
1. Carter has to show he can do more with a larger role.
2. Craig 3s gotta stay on track.
3. White and Williams must take that next step into consistency.
4. Lavine, DDR, and Vuc gotta stay healthy
5. Donovan can't overplay Caruso and can't underplay Drummond

One too many variables that doesn't even include our undersized lineups being outrebounded costing us valuable possessions.
How can you even think this team can be better than last year with the same version returning. The two players added are nothing more than role players who shouldn't be expected to move the needle. This roster is the true definition of a treadmill team.

How many wins if the Bulls had PatBev all season?

[FriedRise]

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[jacoby1us]

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No counters from me, guess they see what I see from the Bulls.

[drosestruts]

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Bold to assume we'll be worse, I simply don't see that. Even those unimpressed by our offseason additions seem to agree they are improvements, and I don't see these other teams leapfrogging us.

I do think it's notable how low the wins are for a lot of teams. 4th seed only at 47 wins is pretty low historically. Think it shows the parity in the league.

Pretty much everyone is dropping in wins from the previous year:

Celtics 57 to 55
Bucks 58 to 54
76ers 54 to 47!!

They have the Heat winning more (are they assuming Lillard is going there?? Vincent and Strus and Oladipo are pretty big losses for them)

My first reaction is surprise they have the Bulls 11th winning less games, but honestly, these rankings have question marks all over it

The Nets were 12-15 last year after their trades. Over the course of a season that would be 36 wins. Hard to say they've improved this offseason, yet this has them winning at a higher percentage??

[FriedRise]

Bold to assume we'll be worse, I simply don't see that. Even those unimpressed by our offseason additions seem to agree they are improvements, and I don't see these other teams leapfrogging us.

I do think it's notable how low the wins are for a lot of teams. 4th seed only at 47 wins is pretty low historically. Think it shows the parity in the league.

Pretty much everyone is dropping in wins from the previous year:

Celtics 57 to 55
Bucks 58 to 54
76ers 54 to 47!!

They have the Heat winning more (are they assuming Lillard is going there?? Vincent and Strus and Oladipo are pretty big losses for them)

My first reaction is surprise they have the Bulls 11th winning less games, but honestly, these rankings have question marks all over it

The Nets were 12-15 last year after their trades. Over the course of a season that would be 36 wins. Hard to say they've improved this offseason, yet this has them winning at a higher percentage??

Obviously the Magic and the Pacers are gobbling up all those extra Ws!

I also don't see Brooklyn winning 39 games lol. They lost a LOT of productive rotational players like Curry, Harris, Mills, and Yuta and replaced them with inexperienced nobodies. Same with Miami like you said, but they obviously could be up there if Lillard ended up getting moved.

[vxmike]

I guessed 31-35. It’s highly unlikely the team is so healthy again, there is still almost no big man depth on the roster, and a think the decline from aging vets could outweigh the minimal youth upside on the roster.

Just a low level treadmill. I have zero excitement about this coming season.

[Ccwatercraft]

I guessed 31-35. It’s highly unlikely the team is so healthy again, there is still almost no big man depth on the roster, and a think the decline from aging vets could outweigh the minimal youth upside on the roster.

Just a low level treadmill. I have zero excitement about this coming season.

I'm cautiously optomistic.

Chemistry is there, the two FA's filled gaps, nuttin fancy just solid acquisitions. I'm expecting to see more of the improved coby and patrick hopefully takes a step forward. They are 10 deep with no truly ugly contracts besides lonzo or really serious questions with depth, no roster is perfect, it's good enough to compete for top 5-6 if the pieces fit.

I think carter and Craig have shown a willingness to take an open 3, coby and pat are better at it than before, but are still hesitant, if we want to add 3's this year we have players that are capable, and some new ones that are willing.

Aside from our lack of one more legit 4 or 4/5 the problem is the offense, it's still flawed, BUT if the shooters shoot it will be improved by default, not enough to make us contenders, its a step forward not back.

Cons, two critical pieces are older, offense needs a improvement, coaching is B+ not A+, other teams will experience improvement too, salary future isn't sexy, roster still slightly unbalanced.

Pros. Continuity, 5 mil to spend with exceptions, more if we clear salary, parity, future draft picks mostly intact in the event we want to go all in. 10 tradable contracts.

[vxmike]

I guessed 31-35. It’s highly unlikely the team is so healthy again, there is still almost no big man depth on the roster, and a think the decline from aging vets could outweigh the minimal youth upside on the roster.

Just a low level treadmill. I have zero excitement about this coming season.

I'm cautiously optomistic.

Chemistry is there, the two FA's filled gaps, nuttin fancy just solid acquisitions. I'm expecting to see more of the improved coby and patrick hopefully takes a step forward. They are 10 deep with no truly ugly contracts besides lonzo or really serious questions with depth, no roster is perfect, it's good enough to compete for top 5-6 if the pieces fit.

I think carter and Craig have shown a willingness to take an open 3, coby and pat are better at it than before, but are still hesitant, if we want to add 3's this year we have players that are capable, and some new ones that are willing.

Aside from our lack of one more legit 4 or 4/5 the problem is the offense, it's still flawed, BUT if the shooters shoot it will be improved by default, not enough to make us contenders, its a step forward not back.

Cons, two critical pieces are older, offense needs a improvement, coaching is B+ not A+, other teams will experience improvement too, salary future isn't sexy, roster still slightly unbalanced.

Pros. Continuity, 5 mil to spend with exceptions, more if we clear salary, parity, future draft picks mostly intact in the event we want to go all in. 10 tradable contracts.

The team still has no actual PF on the roster. If Vuc misses any games they’re in trouble up front. Who’s even the backup C if Drummond misses time?

They don’t have a real play making PG either. Yes there are enough 3pt shooters, but I don’t see who’s going to create the open shots.

I just don’t think any of the major holes were filled. Craig is another undersized PF/wing and Carter is another defensive minded PG who isn’t a playmaker. The team looked best last season with healthy Dragic running the point.

[FriedRise]

The team still has no actual PF on the roster. If Vuc misses any games they’re in trouble up front. Who’s even the backup C if Drummond misses time?

It's gonna be Pat and/or Phillips.

We played a 6'5 DJJ at center last year, so these 6'8 dudes are gonna be an upgrade lmao

[kodo]

Agreed the IR center is going to be an issue. Not enough attention is given to the one of the biggest reasons we lost games last year which was not enough possessions which is due to being a league low offensive rebounding team. Vuc doesn't offensively rebound at a much higher rate (2 per 36 min) than Pat Beverley (1.2 per 36). He's just not a high jumping athletic type of player. And DJ is athletic but didn't have any length at 6' 5". It's really only Drummond who gives us extra possession, and he barely plays.

You can win with less possessions if you score more per shot, eg a ton of 3s and FTs, but we're bottom of the league on both those. If we're scoring mainly on 2s and not at the line, we need a lot of possessions. But we don't play anyone that can get offensive rebounds.

Team just isn't built with a strategy on how to win. TBH...I think the talent on the team is propping up what should be like a 30 win team, the talent is not holding us back.