It's painfully obvious DeMar isn't conducive to a modern, efficient offense

[League Circles]

Demar wasn't the best in either of the two previous years either, so not sure what you're saying.

That's a pretty wild statement to make, so I'll just say the league disagrees with you, given he was all-NBA two years ago, and was our only all-star last year.

Demar now shoots well under league average efficiency, and I think it's WAY below average eFG%, so when he's not getting bailed out by the refs he's killing us, especially considering his defense. I definitely think Coby would do better with more of his shots, and Caruso with more of his minutes. Not sure how this is debatable. It's not written in stone that the guys who take the most shots need to be bad at it. Demar is currently good at creating his own miss. He's 11th on the team in eFG%, behind everyone including even Vuc.

DeMar is about equal to league average efficiency. eFG% is a completely worthless stat, so who cares. There are lots of better ways to measure efficiency, and he's about average this year, while taking the hardest shots. The last two years, he was well above that, in the same scenario. So agree that this year is bad, but I think the sample size is small enough and the history is good enough that I'm not necessarily throwing it out.

The problem isn't that he's pounding the ball, not passing, turning it over, etc. The problem is that he is missing shots, possibly because he's crossed a threshold of aging decline. This is what guys look like right before they fall off a cliff performance wise.

Definitely this year, that's a problem, but those other things are problems too. No one else is making shots on this team. DeRozan, Coby, and Zach have all been around the same range in TS%(a much better measure of efficiency than eFG%) all season. DeMar is currently 3rd in that group, but those are the only three guys who can create a shot against defensive pressure, and DeMar faces the most defensive pressure of those guys so has the hardest job and at other points in the season he was #1 there. They've still all jockeyed back and forth on who is best there this year.

I don't think the sample size is so large for me to hammer DeMar too hard on the efficiency thing, but it's definitely a poor year for him, and at his age, you're absolutely right that he may have fallen off the cliff already or teetering over it about to fall off tomorrow. I agree that I don't want him back for the future on a big contract (thrilled to have him on a small deal where he comes off the bench if that's an option though but doubt it is).

We were talking about on/off. You said he was our best the past 2 years. He wasn't, and is very poor this year. TS% league average is currently 581 and Demar is 561. Yes, Coby is only 582, but is a much better defender than Demar now.

eFG% isn't worthless, and is important especially when the refs swallow the whistle (increasingly frequently especially late in games). Unlike TS%, at least eFG is an actual stat instead of an estimate. Who knows how close the one size fits all approach of TS% matches Demar's ACTUAL TS% (if that could be tracked anywhere). Also a LOT of Demar's unearned FTs, which heavily impact his TS%, are simply because he's holding (hogging) the ball when the opponent is in the penalty IMO.

The point remains, other than FTs (which are important but not QUITE as important as TS% suggests), Demar is the least efficient guy at getting buckets out of every rotation player we have other than I think Carter. Even the last two years Demar was barely above league average TS%.

[Guru]

I have my Lavine and Vuc scapegoat threads on standby should they be needed. I'm joking, but we really do have a rotating cast of guys we blame that changes on a game-by-game basis. Last game Zach, today Demar, next one Vuc. Rinse and repeat.

I'm not saying the criticism isn't warranted, it's just funny how quickly the narratives change.

So much this. DeMar was fine a few games. He played with in system and deferred. Last night he didn't and it didn't work....now he needs to go.

DeMar-Coby-Lavine all want the ball in their hands to succeed.....are there teams that have had success with three guys like this? Certainly that answer is yes.

[League Circles]

So you're telling me one of the most efficient small forwards in the league over the past two years isn't conducive to.... checks notes... an efficient offense?

The goal of offense is to score efficiently, DeMar does that, while commanding a lot of attention from opposing teams defenses.

LaVine also the past two years has posted elite efficiency.

Are other starts during this time - Ayo, Patrick Williams, and Vucevic did not have good efficiency and/or volume.

Maybe the problem wasn't DeMar, despite the timing of making this post after two bad games. Unfortunately 2 years of data suggests otherwrise.

Demar has been inefficient for his entire career other than the 2 years in SA and the past 2 years here, where was decently above league average but certainly not elite. Zach is also not elite. Both are below league average this year.

[MGB8]

The issue with DeMar started after the “DeJordan” run. When he got to the Bulls, he was playing more like he was in San Antonio, but with a bit more shot taking. He even tried on D. And it looked great.

But then came his magic run, and the “old”, pre-SA DeRozan returned. That triggered ego clash/insecurity issues in Zach. It didn’t work well, although the heroics by him made it seem like it - but those were on a lot of shots that, at other times, would not go in (him hitting a higher percentage than mean over time of those shots).

When the team hit rock bottom, DeRozan for a minute started playing San Antonio ball again. He is capable of it, and with his increasing age, really needs to stick to it. But he has his own ego issues, and so even when it isn’t working… we have to go and pretend like DeJordan was some sort of sustainable baseline rather than a month or so long, Niko-esque, hot streak.

Anyway, I think DDR thinks of himself as a top 15-20 player in the game and wants to get paid that way. He won’t, and so we’ll see how everything shakes out. Given the contract situation, if a team came with a semi-reasonable offer for him, I’d move him. Otherwise, the “flexibility killing contract” or “lose an asset for nothing” risks would be too high.

DDR to the Warriors would make a lot of sense for what is plaguing that team (too much offensively on Steph with Klay’s decline and inconsistency), but what would they trade for him?

[BigUps]

The franchise wants to extend Demar and is worried about extending Patrick Williams. It shows you how hard it is to be objective in evaluations when you're too close to the action. You evaluate more than what we see on the court and can exaggerate off-court value.

Demar is done being the first option on any team that is looking to compete. He's done being a closer too. He's holding this franchise back from growing.

[League Circles]

I LOVE Demar, but after this year, IMO, he has to play a substantially reduced role on a substantially reduced salary or we need to part ways with him.

[drosestruts]

So you're telling me one of the most efficient small forwards in the league over the past two years isn't conducive to.... checks notes... an efficient offense?

The goal of offense is to score efficiently, DeMar does that, while commanding a lot of attention from opposing teams defenses.

LaVine also the past two years has posted elite efficiency.

Are other starts during this time - Ayo, Patrick Williams, and Vucevic did not have good efficiency and/or volume.

Maybe the problem wasn't DeMar, despite the timing of making this post after two bad games. Unfortunately 2 years of data suggests otherwrise.

Demar has been inefficient for his entire career other than the 2 years in SA and the past 2 years here, where was decently above league average but certainly not elite. Zach is also not elite. Both are below league average this year.

So you agree - DeMar has been one of the most effecient small forward over the past two years?

LaVine posting three seasons in a row with a TS% above 60 is absolutely elite. I've said it many times - there's two guards in the entire NBA who scored over 20 points with a TS% over 60 in each of the past three seasons and that's been Zach LaVine and Steph Curry.

[Stratmaster]

Of course the Bulls would be weaker if you just subtract Demar. Had they traded him, the assumption is we improve at the 4 and Williams, Lavine, Caruso cover the minutes at the 3.

If the Bulls can get anything at all decent for Demar they should do it ASAP. They should have done it last year deadline, because time isn't on their side with his contract situation.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

[HomoSapien]

Billy needs to grow some balls and tell him he can’t just iso every possession to close out games. If we removed or limited those sequences from the last two games we’d all be feeling comfortable with what he has been giving us.

[dougthonus]

We were talking about on/off. You said he was our best the past 2 years. He wasn't, and is very poor this year. TS% league average is currently 581 and Demar is 561. Yes, Coby is only 582, but is a much better defender than Demar now.

Sorry to be clear on +/-, he was the best among the starters each of the last two years, and the best among the shot creators that could fill his role. If you look at the regressed versions of +/- that hold far more value, DeMar was the best over the past two years of the major players.

eFG% isn't worthless, and is important especially when the refs swallow the whistle (increasingly frequently especially late in games). Unlike TS%, at least eFG is an actual stat instead of an estimate. Who knows how close the one size fits all approach of TS% matches Demar's ACTUAL TS% (if that could be tracked anywhere). Also a LOT of Demar's unearned FTs, which heavily impact his TS%, are simply because he's holding (hogging) the ball when the opponent is in the penalty IMO.

TS% if done correctly with play by play data is not an estimate. The estimated version is still DRAMATICALLY more accurate in measuring efficiency than eFG%.

The point remains, other than FTs (which are important but not QUITE as important as TS% suggests), Demar is the least efficient guy at getting buckets out of every rotation player we have other than I think Carter. Even the last two years Demar was barely above league average TS%.

FTs are probably more important than TS% suggests. TS% gives them their actual importance, and doesn't equate to the added value of potentially taking other players out of the game, getting in the bonus, and weakening the options of the other team.

In terms of his overall efficiency being "barely above league average", that's because the league average is massively increased by dudes shooting open 3s. Guys like Pat Williams that can't ramp up their value can have high TS% but only because the #1 option on the team generates them open looks and draws defenders.

There were 16 guys in the NBA who scored as much as DeRozan and had a higher efficiency level last year. There were only 5 guys the year before. Volume + Efficiency is a tough nut to crack. Factor in that he had one of the best clutch ratings in the league (2 years ago, accounted for twice as many wins as the 2nd best guy), and the "when he does it" is even more impressive.

But again, it doesn't matter too much, to the overarching point of do you want to keep going with DeRozan? Probably not. Like you note, you see a dip this year, and at his age and style, those aren't things I want to do going forward, but I think the Bulls will be at a big loss if they miss him in the very immediate future. I think that's fine, because of his age/decline, we're going to face that problem through decline anyway.

[coldfish]

But again, it doesn't matter too much, to the overarching point of do you want to keep going with DeRozan? Probably not. Like you note, you see a dip this year, and at his age and style, those aren't things I want to do going forward, but I think the Bulls will be at a big loss if they miss him in the very immediate future. I think that's fine, because of his age/decline, we're going to face that problem through decline anyway.

+1. AKME should have seen the signs of decline with Vucevic. One that sticks out is the bunnies he has been missing a lot for like a year. That's a decline in athleticism and energy. Really shouldn't have doubled down on Vuc and gave him that extension.

The signs are there for DeRozan. Hopefully the Bulls don't make the same mistake twice and give him an extension. Once his athleticism declines a little more, he is really going to struggle getting his shots.

[GoBlue72391]

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[ScrantonBulls]

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LOL. To be fair, I'm talking about DeMar as he is today. He's different than the DeMar of the past 2 years. He is showing his age and is no longer and efficient player in my opinion.

[GoBlue72391]

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LOL. To be fair, I'm talking about DeMar as he is today. He's different than the DeMar of the past 2 years. He is showing his age and is no longer and efficient player in my opinion.

Yeah, that's a totally fair criticism and one I mostly agree with.

[ScrantonBulls]

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LOL. To be fair, I'm talking about DeMar as he is today. He's different than the DeMar of the past 2 years. He is showing his age and is no longer and efficient player in my opinion.

Yeah, that's a totally fair criticism and one I mostly agree with.

Ive listened to that guy on CHGO before. I always enjoy his takes. Wonder how he became a Bulls fan as an Aussie. I'm assuming because of MJ.

[WindyCityBorn]

I mean, most folks here really want to lose more games, so I guess trading the guy who keeps us from dropping through the floor is a reasonable means to lose more.

As far as Zach... I started watching at the end and what I saw was, as usual, he was a disaster when the game got tight. 3 terrible TOs in the last 4 minutes.

Because Zach should play off ball. If he isn’t immediately shooting or driving he needs to pass it. It’s clear weakness, but it’s not something that can’t be worked around. Golden State never asked Klay to run the offense.

[WindyCityBorn]

DeMar is going to make the all-star team again if we are .500 or so. The problem with him is his age. We can’t invest another 3 years in at $25 million per whatever he is asking for. We need to find a young SF on a reasonable deal.

This is Coby White’s show now. Zach is a great sidekick if he plays the right way. We still need a true #1…

[dougthonus]

Ive listened to that guy on CHGO before. I always enjoy his takes. Wonder how he became a Bulls fan as an Aussie. I'm assuming because of MJ.

Mark is too young to have watched the dynasty, but I think the hangover of Luc Longley bringing Bulls nation to Australia probably had some piece in the puzzle though I forget his precise origin story. If you didn't know, he used to be a moderator here. He was in town last year to meet up with a ton of Bulls people he knows (including myself).

As for this tweet, I think the overarching problem is not any of those criticisms. They're all somewhat valid to varying degrees.

Vuc's extension was a disaster and our continued evaluation of him as a good player feels like massive PR/sunk cost fallacies.

DeMar's age/style are both major concerns, and it seems apparent that we waited way too long to trade him for value, and that even if we like him, he's just not going to be the same player in the future as he was in the past which was an obvious concern when we signed him.

Zach has been a difficult guy to coach, and while it looks like he's temporarily re-invigorated with the team, perhaps humbled by the lack of interest in him or perhaps just stepping away added perspective, his play has been uninspired and seemed checked out up until the injury.

Pat has faded in and out of looking like he has some potential, but that was his MO going into this year and isn't new. He's made some iterative improvements this year, but still definitely isn't a guy anyone should have had any established expectations of being wholly different.

Billy's an okay coach, but it's pretty clear what he wants to do isn't maximized by this grouping at all given that Drummond regularly outplays Vuc but not in the way Billy wants to play and DeMar doesn't fit into Billy's system at all, and Zach going out actually improved the team.

The greater problem over all of this though is that all of the issues that exist with this team were obvious problems from year's ago and things we willfully took on with other alternatives. Our front office has just thrown up their hands at the idea of thinking longer than 3 weeks into the future with their moves or the idea that perhaps anything they've done in the past was a mistake that should be moved on from rather than doubled down on.

Vegas had us at 38.5 wins this year if memory serves me correctly, we're on pace for 37.8. We've had some hot streaks and cold streaks along the way (which any team is going to have over the season). I had us at 42 wins, and still think we'll beat the over on Vegas, but even if you view a reasonable +/-5 from Vega's range, what we're talking 34-44 wins as a reasonable target, and our response was we should bolster this group rather than look to make any changes?

[Bandit King]

People now figuring this out?

I thought demar was going to shoot more 3s!!

[sco]

While I agree that our starting line-up is inefficient because we have too many dudes who need the ball in their hands to be effective, we suffer from a lack of scoring with our bench line-up. The answer seems sorta obvious that we should be shifting minutes between line-ups. I feel like the two impediments to that logical move is that somebody shouldn't be starting and that Billy is trying to bolster Pat's offense by putting him with the bench dudes as a defacto second option.