It's painfully obvious DeMar isn't conducive to a modern, efficient offense

[ScrantonBulls]

Ive listened to that guy on CHGO before. I always enjoy his takes. Wonder how he became a Bulls fan as an Aussie. I'm assuming because of MJ.

Mark is too young to have watched the dynasty, but I think the hangover of Luc Longley bringing Bulls nation to Australia probably had some piece in the puzzle though I forget his precise origin story. If you didn't know, he used to be a moderator here. He was in town last year to meet up with a ton of Bulls people he knows (including myself).

As for this tweet, I think the overarching problem is not any of those criticisms. They're all somewhat valid to varying degrees.

Vuc's extension was a disaster and our continued evaluation of him as a good player feels like massive PR/sunk cost fallacies.

DeMar's age/style are both major concerns, and it seems apparent that we waited way too long to trade him for value, and that even if we like him, he's just not going to be the same player in the future as he was in the past which was an obvious concern when we signed him.

Zach has been a difficult guy to coach, and while it looks like he's temporarily re-invigorated with the team, perhaps humbled by the lack of interest in him or perhaps just stepping away added perspective, his play has been uninspired and seemed checked out up until the injury.

Pat has faded in and out of looking like he has some potential, but that was his MO going into this year and isn't new. He's made some iterative improvements this year, but still definitely isn't a guy anyone should have had any established expectations of being wholly different.

Billy's an okay coach, but it's pretty clear what he wants to do isn't maximized by this grouping at all given that Drummond regularly outplays Vuc but not in the way Billy wants to play and DeMar doesn't fit into Billy's system at all, and Zach going out actually improved the team.

The greater problem over all of this though is that all of the issues that exist with this team were obvious problems from year's ago and things we willfully took on with other alternatives. Our front office has just thrown up their hands at the idea of thinking longer than 3 weeks into the future with their moves or the idea that perhaps anything they've done in the past was a mistake that should be moved on from rather than doubled down on.

Vegas had us at 38.5 wins this year if memory serves me correctly, we're on pace for 37.8. We've had some hot streaks and cold streaks along the way (which any team is going to have over the season). I had us at 42 wins, and still think we'll beat the over on Vegas, but even if you view a reasonable +/-5 from Vega's range, what we're talking 34-44 wins as a reasonable target, and our response was we should bolster this group rather than look to make any changes?

I had no idea. Does he still post here?

Bulls need to hire you as a consultant sir. It's insane how bad the decisions they made were. I'm sure there were smart Bulls fans that saw this coming when the Vuc trade happened. I wonder if AKME sold the Reinsdorf's on "winning now", or if that was flat out a requirement from the Reinsdorf's.

[dougthonus]

I had no idea. Does he still post here?

No, he doesn't post here anymore, once he started his podcast (Bulls HQ, which he sold to CHGO to become a part time staffer there), he mostly moved to just posting on twitter.

Myself and Fred (Big Red Bus podcast) occasionally do a 3 way with Mark. For awhile, my solo podcast (the Bulls Beat) that I put out relatively infrequently was a consistent three man show with us, but we could never nail down the scheduling to keep it going consistently enough.

Bulls need to hire you as a consultant sir. It's insane how bad the decisions they made were. I'm sure there were smart Bulls fans that saw this coming when the Vuc trade happened. I wonder if AKME sold the Reinsdorf's on "winning now", or if that was flat out a requirement from the Reinsdorf's.

I was one of the people abhorred by the Vuc trade when it was made. I would say that AK probably brought in his vision, and it was a win now vision, and while I don't think the Reinsdorf's explicitly tell him "win now at any cost to get the job", I think anyone who brought a future oriented vision instead of a win now vision wouldn't have gotten the job.

So it's not so much that the Reinsdorf's made explicit mandates about winning now, but the message that would resonate with them the most was someone who came with that plan to them which is perhaps a really small difference, but a meaningful one in that it means that AK is still culpable and believes in this plan, it isn't forced upon him, but we're likely to always get someone with that mindset in charge based on what will resonate with ownership as the correct thing to do.

[jacoby1us]

We’re trying to trade the wrong guy.

DeMar’s defense is worse, his shooting is worse.

He does this 4th quarter thing even though he’s losing a step in front of our eyes. Despite his high IQ, he doesn’t seem to recognize this as a negative and detrimental to the team and the development of his teammates since it’s also the “offense” with the 2nd unit.

He’s 5.5 years older at 34, and needs a new contract that you know will be for at least 3 years.

What are we doing here???

The math is simple, you move the expiring older player. Who is trying to pay DDR $30M+ to watch him rapidly decline in front of us as he turns 35? Not me.

[MikeDC]

Let me come at this from another direction. I think the folks who just don't want to see any or even much ISO heavy PnR at the end of games are mistaken about how NBA basketball works. There were plenty of people saying the same thing about MJ back in the day. In high pressure situations, you give it to your best player and see what he can do with it. That's just how it works.

He is absolutely conducive to efficient, modern offense. Especially in the playoffs and at the end of games.

But... DeMar is 34. What are the options when he falls off?

If you look at iso, PnR, getting to the line, and not turning it over, DeMar is clearly ahead of both Zach and Coby. Zach wants to be traded, but even assuming he stayed, Zach has shown himself not very good at being a high-level playmaker. Coby is a better shooter and OK at this, but he's not the guy you want doing it at the end of games.

To summarize:
PNR Ball Handling
23 DDR 9.4 Possessions, 1.06 PPP (89.2% percentile)
23 Zach 8.1 Possessions, 0.93 PPP (65.8% percentile)
23 Coby 1.7 Possessions, 0.89 PPP (52.9% percentile)

24 DDR 7.1 Possessions, 1.04 PPP (85.6% percentile)
24 Zach 6.6 Possessions, 0.94 PPP (68.1% percentile)
24 Coby 5.6 Possessions, 0.85 PPP (49.1% percentile)

DeMar is still an order of magnitude better at the key NBA skill. The question is how we find a guy who can replace that.

Maybe the answer is
23 XXX 2.8 Possessions, 1.08 PPP (90.4% percentile)
24 XXX 5.6 Possessions, 1.03 PPP (84.7% percentile)

XXX =

Spoiler:

Austin Reeves

[Wingy]

XXX =

Spoiler:

Austin Reeves

I’m down for trading our expiring, old, loved but declining dude for Reeves. Doubt the Lakers are, but who knows.

[meekrab]

I mean, most folks here really want to lose more games, so I guess trading the guy who keeps us from dropping through the floor is a reasonable means to lose more.

As far as Zach... I started watching at the end and what I saw was, as usual, he was a disaster when the game got tight. 3 terrible TOs in the last 4 minutes.

Because Zach should play off ball. If he isn’t immediately shooting or driving he needs to pass it. It’s clear weakness, but it’s not something that can’t be worked around. Golden State never asked Klay to run the offense.

Zach showed last night (and also in the past) that he's perfectly capable of doing some offensive creation. Pick and rolls with Vuc, fast break passing, cutting and making a second pass to the corner are all in his game.

It's mostly when he tries to play like DeMar and iso against strong defenders that he either dribbles off his leg or loses the ball going up for a layup, or else settles for a step back brick.

[WindyCityBorn]

I mean, most folks here really want to lose more games, so I guess trading the guy who keeps us from dropping through the floor is a reasonable means to lose more.

As far as Zach... I started watching at the end and what I saw was, as usual, he was a disaster when the game got tight. 3 terrible TOs in the last 4 minutes.

Because Zach should play off ball. If he isn’t immediately shooting or driving he needs to pass it. It’s clear weakness, but it’s not something that can’t be worked around. Golden State never asked Klay to run the offense.

Zach showed last night (and also in the past) that he's perfectly capable of doing some offensive creation. Pick and rolls with Vuc, fast break passing, cutting and making a second pass to the corner are all in his game.

It's mostly when he tries to play like DeMar and iso against strong defenders that he either dribbles off his leg or loses the ball going up for a layup, or else settles for a step back brick.

Yes. It needs to be quick creation though.

[MrSparkle]

It’s painfully obvious that a combination could be worse than the parts.

If all 3 guys committed to studying defensive film, passing/off-ball mechanics, they’d have a more interesting ceiling. Honestly, the older 2 are probably playing as well as they can at this point in their timelines. It’s just not going to work.

[mj234eva]

LOL. To be fair, I'm talking about DeMar as he is today. He's different than the DeMar of the past 2 years. He is showing his age and is no longer and efficient player in my opinion.

Yeah, that's a totally fair criticism and one I mostly agree with.

Ive listened to that guy on CHGO before. I always enjoy his takes. Wonder how he became a Bulls fan as an Aussie. I'm assuming because of MJ.

He was a long time mod (can't remember if he made it to green level) here.

[RastaBull]

DDR/Coby/Lavine combined for 74 points on 51 shots against Houston. That's pretty exceptional. (54 on 33 and 54 on 43 against Charlotte).

Optimistically, those first two games were some warm ups for Lavine, coming off the bench. That's not horrible efficiency from 3 top scorers (and the second game it was Vuc and Dre combining for 40+ ... so there's that!). But not the ultimate output you need. Now, 74 on 51, that is certainly a winning output.

For context, season averages: 71 on 48 Boston (JT/JB/KP); 77 on 54 Philly (JE/TM/TH); 61 on 46 Denver (NJ/JM/MPJ); 71 on 48 Bucks (GA/DL/KM). And then there's a notably difference with lower teir teams: 67 on 52 Knicks (JB/JR/RJB); 65 on 51 Hawks (TY/DM/BB).

I'm going to watch this pretty basic stat out of my own curiosity moving forward. To me, it's less about single performances and more about how these three function as the three lead scorers for this team. Can they game in and game out carry the weight scoring (picking up each other's off games) and do it efficiently.

I think so. Coby's take off is really a huge difference. If the can hover around 70 on 50 that's pretty huge and I'd bet leads to a lot of success.

[Red8911]

DeMar give-ith and DeMar take-ith away.

The same style of play that almost lost us the game is exactly what he's done to win us a ton of games. He's been an excellent floor raiser for us, but you also see why he's not a ceiling raiser, especially at his age.

We are boxed into a situation where this team is an absolute ton worse if you get rid of him, but we also are going to struggle to get past pedestrian with him since his primary value is slow, heavy, isolation oriented, ball-pounding play. In some fictional world, every player could see the whole picture and fit into it in the perfect way, but DeMar is 34. He's probably not going to change the way he sees the game at this point.

I just hope we don't extend him, and not because he's a bad guy, but this show is going to get worse at ages 35-37 where his game is the same, but his effectiveness at it is less.

Demar has actually stopped the ball pounding, heavy iso and has changed his game this season. The only time he goes iso is at the end of games. At times it’s effective other times it’s not. It’s just happened to not work for 2 games in a row, he missed his shots so ofcourse there needs to be a thread about it.

Don’t forget guys every go to guy on every team goes iso when the game is on the line. If Demar wasn’t here then someone else would have to go iso at times during late in the game.

[RastaBull]

To carry off my last point. Way I see the current structure, and one that I'm pretty interested and optimistic about the success:

'Big' Three, as in three relied upon scorers:
DDR/Coby/LaVine
Q: Can they average an output of 70 points on 50 shots?
A: I think they really can

2 Big Men
Vuc/DDR
Q: Can they average 25/18?
A: If Billy gets Drummond more equal minutes, I think they can average 30/20 pretty solidly!

3-D / Bench
Pat/AC/Craig/Ayo
Q: Can they lead the defense on the floor, and regularly clip combined 25 point output?
A: I think the defense is huge and they can ... 30 points is even manageable, my worry is whether enough of them are consistent enough to pick up when others slack.

End of bench fill-in guys
Dalen/Carter

I think with LaVine back, we have a real legit chance to average 115-120 points per game. Without sacrificing the success on defense (111 points per game)

[Indomitable]

We’re trying to trade the wrong guy.

DeMar’s defense is worse, his shooting is worse.

He does this 4th quarter thing even though he’s losing a step in front of our eyes. Despite his high IQ, he doesn’t seem to recognize this as a negative and detrimental to the team and the development of his teammates since it’s also the “offense” with the 2nd unit.

He’s 5.5 years older at 34, and needs a new contract that you know will be for at least 3 years.

What are we doing here???

The math is simple, you move the expiring older player. Who is trying to pay DDR $30M+ to watch him rapidly decline in front of us as he turns 35? Not me.

Exactly

[Indomitable]

DeMar give-ith and DeMar take-ith away.

The same style of play that almost lost us the game is exactly what he's done to win us a ton of games. He's been an excellent floor raiser for us, but you also see why he's not a ceiling raiser, especially at his age.

We are boxed into a situation where this team is an absolute ton worse if you get rid of him, but we also are going to struggle to get past pedestrian with him since his primary value is slow, heavy, isolation oriented, ball-pounding play. In some fictional world, every player could see the whole picture and fit into it in the perfect way, but DeMar is 34. He's probably not going to change the way he sees the game at this point.

I just hope we don't extend him, and not because he's a bad guy, but this show is going to get worse at ages 35-37 where his game is the same, but his effectiveness at it is less.

Demar has actually stopped the ball pounding, heavy iso and has changed his game this season. The only time he goes iso is at the end of games. At times it’s effective other times it’s not. It’s just happened to not work for 2 games in a row, he missed his shots so ofcourse there needs to be a thread about it.

Don’t forget guys every go to guy on every team goes iso when the game is on the line. If Demar wasn’t here then someone else would have to go iso at times during late in the game.

Demar does it in the second quarter and end of the first.

[Hangtime84]

XXX =

Spoiler:

Austin Reeves

I’m down for trading our expiring, old, loved but declining dude for Reeves. Doubt the Lakers are, but who knows.

They still have group saying they should have gotten DeMar over Russ group that’s very loud. They are 2nd behind the bring back Alex group

[Ccwatercraft]

DeMar give-ith and DeMar take-ith away.

The same style of play that almost lost us the game is exactly what he's done to win us a ton of games. He's been an excellent floor raiser for us, but you also see why he's not a ceiling raiser, especially at his age.

We are boxed into a situation where this team is an absolute ton worse if you get rid of him, but we also are going to struggle to get past pedestrian with him since his primary value is slow, heavy, isolation oriented, ball-pounding play. In some fictional world, every player could see the whole picture and fit into it in the perfect way, but DeMar is 34. He's probably not going to change the way he sees the game at this point.

I just hope we don't extend him, and not because he's a bad guy, but this show is going to get worse at ages 35-37 where his game is the same, but his effectiveness at it is less.

Demar has actually stopped the ball pounding, heavy iso and has changed his game this season. The only time he goes iso is at the end of games. At times it’s effective other times it’s not. It’s just happened to not work for 2 games in a row, he missed his shots so ofcourse there needs to be a thread about it.

Don’t forget guys every go to guy on every team goes iso when the game is on the line. If Demar wasn’t here then someone else would have to go iso at times during late in the game.

Demar does it in the second quarter and end of the first.

I'm sure Billy is calling this, this isn't iso by happenstance, this is iso because demar is our iso closer. We tried that with zach,it went poorly, and coby isn't there.

[Stratmaster]

DeMar is going to make the all-star team again if we are .500 or so. The problem with him is his age. We can’t invest another 3 years in at $25 million per whatever he is asking for. We need to find a young SF on a reasonable deal.

This is Coby White’s show now. Zach is a great sidekick if he plays the right way. We still need a true #1…

Wait. We have handed the show to a streaky 18/5/5 PG? When did that happen?

I love Coby. He and Lavine could be a deadly back court duo. But, it ain't his show.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

[FriedRise]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

[MikeDC]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

30 wins.

[Guru]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

I think Pat has been playing the 4 pretty well. Caruso needs to start.