It's painfully obvious DeMar isn't conducive to a modern, efficient offense

[Guru]

This entire conversation reminds me about how good AKME is at collecting assets. This could be our team

1 Ball-Caruso-Carter
2 White-Ayo
3 Lavine-DDR-Terry
4 Williams-Craig-Phillips
5 Vooch-Drummond

He is next level at getting quality players on to a roster.

[Chi town]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

30 wins.

No way. Not if Zach plays like he did against the Rockets.

Don’t forget the lineup would be:
Coby Zach Caruso Pat Vuc
That lineup is good.

DDR to Knicks for expiring Fournier and Grimes. Grimes is a 3D wing shooter.

DDR to Sixers for expiring Morris Batum and a 1st.
Batum is a good floor spacing PF that is high IQ and makes winning plays.

Coby Zach Pat Batum Vuc
Caruso Ayo Craig Drummond

[MGB8]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

30 wins.

DDR, in his current form, is not a 10-12 wins (or more) difference maker.

If he was, there would be a much more significant market for him, even as an expiring.

He is very similar to Zach on overall impact - helps you at times, hurts you at times. Needs to be in a very specific role, and in that role can be a strong contributor, but stray too far outside that role, not can be a detriment. Not to mention a history of playoff level defense really impacting his production - even when he was younger (that was the big complaint in TO). Combined with his age, and…

Yes, he is better in the clutch than Zach (who gets repeated brainfarts). But ISO DDR is what is killing the Bulls play. LaVine exacerbates it because he responds with “well, if he gets those turns, I should too” … weird ego thing… but this flow killing wasn’t nearly as a big a thing before DDR, and in particular the “DeJordan” hot streak after Lonzo got hurt.

Now, if they could just not go so heavily to ISO DDR, limiting it to spots where nothing else is working but not using it as a “closing” strategy… that takes the “ISO DDR” problem off the table. That is what happened in the hot streak…

[MikeDC]

Is DeMar gonna sign an extension after this year? Because if not, it'd be nice to get something back instead of just letting him walk.

I will say that I'm intrigued with what we'd look like without him:
Coby / Zach / Pat / 3&D PF / Vooch

Pat moves back to SF, get some size and shooting at the 4.

30 wins.

DDR, in his current form, is not a 10-12 wins (or more) difference maker.

He is for the Bulls, because we don't have a replacement for what he brings. He's still an absolutely elite PnR playmaker, and that's the key element you need to win in important situations. I'll stand by the fact that Zach and Coby are an order of magnitude worse, and definitely not elite.

The Bulls got by without Zach because they have alternatives that can approximate what Zach brings to the table. They won't get by without DeMar because they don't have anyone else who can do that.

If he was, there would be a much more significant market for him, even as an expiring.

Two things.
1. What's true for the Bulls isn't necessarily true for other teams. He has outsized value to us because we don't have another high level closer. If you do have that guy (a Lebron or a Luca or even Jalen Brunson), then adding DeMar might be nice, but it's not fundamentally adding a thing you don't have, the way taking him away from us is taking away our only high level playmaker.

2. Obviously we can't know for sure, but the weight of the talk is actually that the Bulls don't want to talk about trading him, but other teams who they try to market LaVine to instead ask about him. So maybe there's a pretty good market for him.

Now, if they could just not go so heavily to ISO DDR, limiting it to spots where nothing else is working but not using it as a “closing” strategy… that takes the “ISO DDR” problem off the table. That is what happened in the hot streak…

Every team's closing strategy boils down to ISO somebody. I don't think it was actually any different in the hot streak, except we were up by a lot in some of those games, so it didn't really become a noticeable issue. Or they were games where DDR performed well, and folks only count the bad ones in these kinds of debates.

Long story short, if we trade DeMar, we're going to get an order of magnitude worse at the end of games. Get ready for a lot of Zach throwing the ball into the 5th row.

[Chi town]

30 wins.

DDR, in his current form, is not a 10-12 wins (or more) difference maker.

He is for the Bulls, because we don't have a replacement for what he brings. He's still an absolutely elite PnR playmaker, and that's the key element you need to win in important situations. I'll stand by the fact that Zach and Coby are an order of magnitude worse, and definitely not elite.

The Bulls got by without Zach because they have alternatives that can approximate what Zach brings to the table. They won't get by without DeMar because they don't have anyone else who can do that.

If he was, there would be a much more significant market for him, even as an expiring.

Two things.
1. What's true for the Bulls isn't necessarily true for other teams. He has outsized value to us because we don't have another high level closer. If you do have that guy (a Lebron or a Luca or even Jalen Brunson), then adding DeMar might be nice, but it's not fundamentally adding a thing you don't have, the way taking him away from us is taking away our only high level playmaker.

2. Obviously we can't know for sure, but the weight of the talk is actually that the Bulls don't want to talk about trading him, but other teams who they try to market LaVine to instead ask about him. So maybe there's a pretty good market for him.

Now, if they could just not go so heavily to ISO DDR, limiting it to spots where nothing else is working but not using it as a “closing” strategy… that takes the “ISO DDR” problem off the table. That is what happened in the hot streak…

Every team's closing strategy boils down to ISO somebody. I don't think it was actually any different in the hot streak, except we were up by a lot in some of those games, so it didn't really become a noticeable issue. Or they were games where DDR performed well, and folks only count the bad ones in these kinds of debates.

Long story short, if we trade DeMar, we're going to get an order of magnitude worse at the end of games. Get ready for a lot of Zach throwing the ball into the 5th row.

You are generally correct about closing ISO and DDR. The issue is closing DDR isn’t getting the flop FT calls nearly as much. He’s aging and losing his legs and often shoots short in crunch time. He sucks when people blitz him to.

He has come up big in the clutch. He hasn’t nearly as much now and it will only get worse in the future as he ages.

You are also projecting that Coby and Zach can’t improve. I think they both can. Neither has really had the opportunity. Coby fixed DDRs failure against the Hornets and Zach did against the rockets.

I’d bet on Coby and Zach being better moving FWD more than an aging DDR that can’t be rewarded for flops or hunting fouls.

[MikeDC]

You are also projecting that Coby and Zach can’t improve. I think they both can. Neither has really had the opportunity. Coby fixed DDRs failure against the Hornets and Zach did against the rockets.

I’d bet on Coby and Zach being better moving FWD more than an aging DDR that can’t be rewarded for flops or hunting fouls.

I posted their numbers earlier in the thread

To summarize:
PNR Ball Handling
23 DDR 9.4 Possessions, 1.06 PPP (89.2% percentile)
23 Zach 8.1 Possessions, 0.93 PPP (65.8% percentile)
23 Coby 1.7 Possessions, 0.89 PPP (52.9% percentile)

24 DDR 7.1 Possessions, 1.04 PPP (85.6% percentile)
24 Zach 6.6 Possessions, 0.94 PPP (68.1% percentile)
24 Coby 5.6 Possessions, 0.85 PPP (49.1% percentile)

First, I don't see much evidence that DeMar is appreciably falling off. His numbers are stable. Further, if you look it up, he's getting FTs on 18% of his PnR possessions. He got 14% last year and 15% the year before that.

Second, I don't think it's realistic to expect guys to improve much in these areas, especially when, like Zach, you're almost 29. If you go to NBA.com and flip through year by year, these guys are pretty much the same from year to year. Coby might get a bit better, but he's not going to be elite at it. He's, like Zach, going to be a secondary guy. Zach's a good secondary guy, but if he's your best guy, you're gonna have problems.

The number of guys who can consistently get over about 1.00 PPP on a decent number of possessions is vanishingly small. Like 10 per year, and the guys who are ~ 1.05 level like DeRozan are in the upper half of that.

[League Circles]

In general I've been a huge fan of Demar and not a huge fan of Zach, but I agree we need to very strongly consider moving on from Demar and be open minded to still having a long term future with hopefully an improving Zach. Yes, Zach played poorly before getting injured this year, but last year was playing his best ball ever towards the end of the year, and has generally been on an upward trend through his time as a Bull. Considering that decision making is his biggest weakness and that usually always consistently improves with experience and age. It is entirely plausible that Zach's true prime as a player may still be a few years into the future. Drmar definitely peaked from 30-34 years old. Late primes are not nearly as rare as people act like they are. Hell, most people would say MJ peaked after he started winning titles.

[eierluke]

I still think that the Warriors might be a good trade partner
Chris Paul (injured) for Der Mar + 1st picks work s for me (Bulls pov)
and from the warriors pov he still could help a lot (they need free throws more than 3pt shooting).

[MGB8]

You are also projecting that Coby and Zach can’t improve. I think they both can. Neither has really had the opportunity. Coby fixed DDRs failure against the Hornets and Zach did against the rockets.

I’d bet on Coby and Zach being better moving FWD more than an aging DDR that can’t be rewarded for flops or hunting fouls.

I posted their numbers earlier in the thread

To summarize:
PNR Ball Handling
23 DDR 9.4 Possessions, 1.06 PPP (89.2% percentile)
23 Zach 8.1 Possessions, 0.93 PPP (65.8% percentile)
23 Coby 1.7 Possessions, 0.89 PPP (52.9% percentile)

24 DDR 7.1 Possessions, 1.04 PPP (85.6% percentile)
24 Zach 6.6 Possessions, 0.94 PPP (68.1% percentile)
24 Coby 5.6 Possessions, 0.85 PPP (49.1% percentile)

First, I don't see much evidence that DeMar is appreciably falling off. His numbers are stable. Further, if you look it up, he's getting FTs on 18% of his PnR possessions. He got 14% last year and 15% the year before that.

Second, I don't think it's realistic to expect guys to improve much in these areas, especially when, like Zach, you're almost 29. If you go to NBA.com and flip through year by year, these guys are pretty much the same from year to year. Coby might get a bit better, but he's not going to be elite at it. He's, like Zach, going to be a secondary guy. Zach's a good secondary guy, but if he's your best guy, you're gonna have problems.

The number of guys who can consistently get over about 1.00 PPP on a decent number of possessions is vanishingly small. Like 10 per year, and the guys who are ~ 1.05 level like DeRozan are in the upper half of that.

On pure ISOs, DDR is getting .96 PPP per nba.com. Vuc is the best player on the Bulls at 1.2 ppp…. Better than DDR in the PnR…. So do we go to that?

There are limits to what these things tell you. Yes, as PnR ball handler DDR is at 1.04 PPP… which while good-ish, isn’t great.

Quickly gets 1.18 on decent volume (within 3% of DDRs usage). Rozier 1.15 on slightltly greater usage. Hali and Tyus Jones (on an awful team, which says something about whether this stat really translates) get 1.14 PPP on even greater usage. TJ McCConnell 1.09 on even greater usage (% wise, but also meaningful total volume, too).

But Steph Curry only gets .91 PPP on PnR as the ball handler per these stats… which, even as not great as the Warriors have no been, starts suggesting that there are issues with the stat - how it’s input and what is counterproductive vs not. Because Steph Curry is better in the PnR than DDR.

Then you look a little more and see Maxey’s .9 in such circumstances… and Darius Garland’s .88… and Anthony Edwards’ 0.94… and Kyrie Irving’s .96, and Banchero’s .79, Franz Wagner’s .89, Jimmy Butler’s .79,Tatum and James’ both at .86…

But DDR is that much better to give to in the P&R than Lebron? Or Steph? Or Maxey? Or Irving or Jimmy.

I submit that the stat has been effectively invalidated as telling you much of anything (other than, within team and similar usage in similar spots, it likely signals who is better than who at that particular task with the existing play decisions and lineups).

[Chi town]

You are also projecting that Coby and Zach can’t improve. I think they both can. Neither has really had the opportunity. Coby fixed DDRs failure against the Hornets and Zach did against the rockets.

I’d bet on Coby and Zach being better moving FWD more than an aging DDR that can’t be rewarded for flops or hunting fouls.

I posted their numbers earlier in the thread

To summarize:
PNR Ball Handling
23 DDR 9.4 Possessions, 1.06 PPP (89.2% percentile)
23 Zach 8.1 Possessions, 0.93 PPP (65.8% percentile)
23 Coby 1.7 Possessions, 0.89 PPP (52.9% percentile)

24 DDR 7.1 Possessions, 1.04 PPP (85.6% percentile)
24 Zach 6.6 Possessions, 0.94 PPP (68.1% percentile)
24 Coby 5.6 Possessions, 0.85 PPP (49.1% percentile)

First, I don't see much evidence that DeMar is appreciably falling off. His numbers are stable. Further, if you look it up, he's getting FTs on 18% of his PnR possessions. He got 14% last year and 15% the year before that.

Second, I don't think it's realistic to expect guys to improve much in these areas, especially when, like Zach, you're almost 29. If you go to NBA.com and flip through year by year, these guys are pretty much the same from year to year. Coby might get a bit better, but he's not going to be elite at it. He's, like Zach, going to be a secondary guy. Zach's a good secondary guy, but if he's your best guy, you're gonna have problems.

The number of guys who can consistently get over about 1.00 PPP on a decent number of possessions is vanishingly small. Like 10 per year, and the guys who are ~ 1.05 level like DeRozan are in the upper half of that.

On pure ISOs, DDR is getting .96 PPP per nba.com. Vuc is the best player on the Bulls at 1.2 ppp…. Better than DDR in the PnR…. So do we go to that?

There are limits to what these things tell you. Yes, as PnR ball handler DDR is at 1.04 PPP… which while good-ish, isn’t great.

Quickly gets 1.18 on decent volume (within 3% of DDRs usage). Rozier 1.15 on slightltly greater usage. Hali and Tyus Jones (on an awful team, which says something about whether this stat really translates) get 1.14 PPP on even greater usage. TJ McCConnell 1.09 on even greater usage (% wise, but also meaningful total volume, too).

But Steph Curry only gets .91 PPP on PnR as the ball handler per these stats… which, even as not great as the Warriors have no been, starts suggesting that there are issues with the stat - how it’s input and what is counterproductive vs not. Because Steph Curry is better in the PnR than DDR.

Then you look a little more and see Maxey’s .9 in such circumstances… and Darius Garland’s .88… and Anthony Edwards’ 0.94… and Kyrie Irving’s .96, and Banchero’s .79, Franz Wagner’s .89, Jimmy Butler’s .79,Tatum and James’ both at .86…

But DDR is that much better to give to in the P&R than Lebron? Or Steph? Or Maxey? Or Irving or Jimmy.

I submit that the stat has been effectively invalidated as telling you much of anything (other than, within team and similar usage in similar spots, it likely signals who is better than who at that particular task with the existing play decisions and lineups).

Well said.

[MGB8]

Looking at DDR over the years, his number was typically in the low to mid .9s before his 2nd season in San Antonio, when it went into the low to mid 1.0s. The jump seems to be mainly based on the percentage of time the play results in points, from mid to high 40s to low 50s. FT rate varies, TO rate stays pretty constant so not that. Just whether the shot goes in. But FG% and even EFG don’t quite match up, either.

This year, though, it seems to be mostly based on an outlier low percentage of TO from that ply as compared to other seasons, despite a sub 50 efg. Last year, over 53% efg out of DDr in PnR (outlier, high) but more normal (10% ish) turnover results. Him keeping it more and just shooting this year?

[MGB8]

Also note that in 2020, 2021, Zach was at 1.00 PPP, 82nd percentile. DDR in San Antonio was at 1.02, slightly better (but different team, plays, situations). But that shows some fairly big variations.

For example, SGA, .90 in 21-22, 1.12 prior season, 0.96 the season before that. That says more about the weaknesses in this particular stat.

[bullskokie]

Sometimes I dream about taking out DDR & Vooch then resigning Nikola Mirotic. Coby, Zach, Williams, Mirotic & Drummond is a fun lineup!

[WindyCityBorn]

DeMar is going to make the all-star team again if we are .500 or so. The problem with him is his age. We can’t invest another 3 years in at $25 million per whatever he is asking for. We need to find a young SF on a reasonable deal.

This is Coby White’s show now. Zach is a great sidekick if he plays the right way. We still need a true #1…

Wait. We have handed the show to a streaky 18/5/5 PG? When did that happen?

I love Coby. He and Lavine could be a deadly back court duo. But, it ain't his show.

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

I meant the offense runs through him. Doesn’t mean is going to be our best player long term.

[MikeDC]

You are also projecting that Coby and Zach can’t improve. I think they both can. Neither has really had the opportunity. Coby fixed DDRs failure against the Hornets and Zach did against the rockets.

I’d bet on Coby and Zach being better moving FWD more than an aging DDR that can’t be rewarded for flops or hunting fouls.

I posted their numbers earlier in the thread

To summarize:
PNR Ball Handling
23 DDR 9.4 Possessions, 1.06 PPP (89.2% percentile)
23 Zach 8.1 Possessions, 0.93 PPP (65.8% percentile)
23 Coby 1.7 Possessions, 0.89 PPP (52.9% percentile)

24 DDR 7.1 Possessions, 1.04 PPP (85.6% percentile)
24 Zach 6.6 Possessions, 0.94 PPP (68.1% percentile)
24 Coby 5.6 Possessions, 0.85 PPP (49.1% percentile)

First, I don't see much evidence that DeMar is appreciably falling off. His numbers are stable. Further, if you look it up, he's getting FTs on 18% of his PnR possessions. He got 14% last year and 15% the year before that.

Second, I don't think it's realistic to expect guys to improve much in these areas, especially when, like Zach, you're almost 29. If you go to NBA.com and flip through year by year, these guys are pretty much the same from year to year. Coby might get a bit better, but he's not going to be elite at it. He's, like Zach, going to be a secondary guy. Zach's a good secondary guy, but if he's your best guy, you're gonna have problems.

The number of guys who can consistently get over about 1.00 PPP on a decent number of possessions is vanishingly small. Like 10 per year, and the guys who are ~ 1.05 level like DeRozan are in the upper half of that.

On pure ISOs, DDR is getting .96 PPP per nba.com. Vuc is the best player on the Bulls at 1.2 ppp…. Better than DDR in the PnR…. So do we go to that?

There are limits to what these things tell you. Yes, as PnR ball handler DDR is at 1.04 PPP… which while good-ish, isn’t great.

It's very good.

Your criticisms of the stat come from taking out information that I left in.
1. Sample size. Multiple years of data
2. Possessions. Multiple iterations of the play type.

The whole purpose of statistics is to assemble a large set of data. Pulling out an outlier and pointing to it and saying it "invalidates" the statistic is the exact opposite of what statistics is all about.

Occasionally, there's a day where it's 65 and sunny in January. But mostly it's not, and pointing to that day when it was 65 doesn't mean temperature is an "invalid statistic" or even that the statement that "it's cold in January" is on the whole incorrect.

Examples:

Quickly gets 1.18 on decent volume (within 3% of DDRs usage).

In fact, Quickley only does 4.3 possessions per game, which is less than half of DDR. Last year he was at 0.99 on 4.1. Before that, 0.96 on 4.0. That is, when you expand the sample, Quickley runs this type of play much less and despite one outlier partial season, has not been up there at all.

Rozier 1.15 on slightltly greater usage.

Yep, over 1/3 of a season. If you go back and look at last year though, his PPP was 0.84. Oof. And it was 0.84 in the year prior too.

In short, these are obvious outliers. One warm day in January vs. years and years worth of cold days in January, which is what DeRozan's numbers represent.

Hali

Well, OK, everyone would like to have Haliburton. He's an All-NBA level player. That underscores the point.

and Tyus Jones

... does not underscore the point, because again, he only runs PnR less than half as many times a game than Haliburton (or DeMar).

(on an awful team, which says something about whether this stat really translates) get 1.14 PPP on even greater usage.

Actually, this very much explains why, despite having the same PPP, Tyus Jones is on a bad team. I assume that when you say "usage" you are referring to the Freq % column, which Haliburton and Jones are nearly the same there. But you are, respectfully, making a big error. This is the Frequency % of the Player's PnR possessions vs their total possessions. Their actual possessions per game is the relevant number for understanding the stat, and it's the next column to the left.
Haliburton 9.4 per game
Jones 4.4 per game

That explains how the stat "translates". It's a rate statistic. To translate, you need to pair it up to how much guys do it. Great PnR players like Haliburton and DeRozan can maintain a high PPP even while doing it an order of magnitude more per game over an order of magnitude more games.

There's also the outlier problem on the season too. Go back to last year and the year before and Haliburton was at 1.04 and 0.99. Good and getting better on high usage. Jones was at 0.87 and 0.82. Awful on less than half the usage.

TJ McCConnell 1.09 on even greater usage (% wise, but also meaningful total volume, too).

Not usage. That's a bigger proportion of what TJ does, but he still does it like half as much as Haliburton. This makes sense. TJ is actually a great PnR guy. That's not outlier (though 1.09 is way higher than he's ever been in prior years... doesn't look like he's ever been above 1.0) It's just not the whole story. TJ is a terrible shooter and he's 6'1". I'd still be happy to have him.

But Steph Curry only gets .91 PPP on PnR as the ball handler per these stats… which, even as not great as the Warriors have no been, starts suggesting that there are issues with the stat - how it’s input and what is counterproductive vs not. Because Steph Curry is better in the PnR than DDR.

But... this (Curry is better in PnR than DDR) is exactly what the stat says when you don't just limit yourself to looking at this year.
Curry's PnR numbers going back year by year 0.91, 1.14, 1.02, 1.13.

Factor in the fact that Curry is an obviously better shooter and some of his plays probably get classified differently, and I don't see how your complaint is accurate. The stat, taken as a whole, indicates exactly what you would think; Curry is better.

Then you look a little more and see Maxey’s .9 in such circumstances… and Darius Garland’s .88… and Anthony Edwards’ 0.94… and Kyrie Irving’s .96, and Banchero’s .79, Franz Wagner’s .89, Jimmy Butler’s .79,Tatum and James’ both at .86…

None of that is surprising... running a PnR isn't the only circumstance in the game. It's just the predominant one. Like, Maxey is good player, but his value comes from being pretty good in the PnR but being a good shooter. He's more analogous to Coby.

But DDR is that much better to give to in the P&R than Lebron? Or Steph? Or Maxey? Or Irving or Jimmy.

This year? Maybe in the regular season. Lebron is 38. Jimmy gives 0 **** and is just trying to make it to the playoffs. Steph looks like he's really falling off. If I had to run a PnR, yeah, I'd give it to DeMar. If I were just going to say, "here's the ball, go get a bucket" I'd give it to Steph. Maxey is a Coby like player. He's not necessarily the guy you want taking the last shot.

I submit that the stat has been effectively invalidated as telling you much of anything (other than, within team and similar usage in similar spots, it likely signals who is better than who at that particular task with the existing play decisions and lineups).

Respectfully, this is just because you took out two key elements that I used in my initial post. When you add the sample size factors back in, every seeming problem with the stat you raised is given an obvious answer.

[MikeDC]

And, just to close the loop on it, no, you can't just expect to double the number of possessions a guy is getting, and have him maintain efficiency. There are always exceptions, but generally, water reaches its level. We see this with Coby, right? It's one thing to be successful if you occasionally run a PnR (or any type of play) when the defense isn't really keying on you. It's something else entirely to do it over and over again, every game, every year, and be good at it even when the defense knows it's coming.

That's the point here. That's what DeMar does, and what most of those other guys do not. The stat, when you look at the entire sample, and not little snips, shows that quite clearly.

[GoBlue72391]

This entire conversation reminds me about how good AKME is at collecting assets. This could be our team

1 Ball-Caruso-Carter
2 White-Ayo
3 Lavine-DDR-Terry
4 Williams-Craig-Phillips
5 Vooch-Drummond

He is next level at getting quality players on to a roster.

Did I read this correctly?

[Stratmaster]

30 wins.

DDR, in his current form, is not a 10-12 wins (or more) difference maker.

He is for the Bulls, because we don't have a replacement for what he brings. He's still an absolutely elite PnR playmaker, and that's the key element you need to win in important situations. I'll stand by the fact that Zach and Coby are an order of magnitude worse, and definitely not elite.

The Bulls got by without Zach because they have alternatives that can approximate what Zach brings to the table. They won't get by without DeMar because they don't have anyone else who can do that.

If he was, there would be a much more significant market for him, even as an expiring.

Two things.
1. What's true for the Bulls isn't necessarily true for other teams. He has outsized value to us because we don't have another high level closer. If you do have that guy (a Lebron or a Luca or even Jalen Brunson), then adding DeMar might be nice, but it's not fundamentally adding a thing you don't have, the way taking him away from us is taking away our only high level playmaker.

2. Obviously we can't know for sure, but the weight of the talk is actually that the Bulls don't want to talk about trading him, but other teams who they try to market LaVine to instead ask about him. So maybe there's a pretty good market for him.

Now, if they could just not go so heavily to ISO DDR, limiting it to spots where nothing else is working but not using it as a “closing” strategy… that takes the “ISO DDR” problem off the table. That is what happened in the hot streak…

Every team's closing strategy boils down to ISO somebody. I don't think it was actually any different in the hot streak, except we were up by a lot in some of those games, so it didn't really become a noticeable issue. Or they were games where DDR performed well, and folks only count the bad ones in these kinds of debates.

Long story short, if we trade DeMar, we're going to get an order of magnitude worse at the end of games. Get ready for a lot of Zach throwing the ball into the 5th row.

Demar's production is way easier to reproduce than Lavine and Coby.

And every teams 1 play closing strategy is usually ISO because in many cases (game is tied) they are running clocks to zero. Not every team spends the entire last 4 minutes of every game having 1 guy go ISO

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

[MGB8]

And, just to close the loop on it, no, you can't just expect to double the number of possessions a guy is getting, and have him maintain efficiency. There are always exceptions, but generally, water reaches its level. We see this with Coby, right? It's one thing to be successful if you occasionally run a PnR (or any type of play) when the defense isn't really keying on you. It's something else entirely to do it over and over again, every game, every year, and be good at it even when the defense knows it's coming.

That's the point here. That's what DeMar does, and what most of those other guys do not. The stat, when you look at the entire sample, and not little snips, shows that quite clearly.

Except that: (1) you ignored that DDR and a number of other players have swung significantly year to year or over time; you disregard, for instance, Steph’s wild swings, where stability in that number is central to your argument. SGA has similar swings. DDR seems unusual in relative stability, both pre 2nd season in SA and post. But why couldn’t LaVine or Coby could easily make a jump the same way DDR made in his 2nd season in SA, at some point down the line?

(2) you have nothing statistical to support your claim that a guy who has about 1/2 to 2/3 the volume of DDR, where it’s a common play for the player (so defenses prepared) at a higher efficiency than DDR, wouldn’t have it translate at DDR level usage. This is not someone doing it occasionally, this is a significant chunk of a significant mpg player doing it, but instead of 7-8 possessions per game, 4-5, but in a similar proportion of time that they are on the court.

Sample size doesn’t resolve this - not multi year, which shows much greater variance than your argument needs in order to be valid, not in terms of total possessions per game, when the examples I provided weren’t some sort of spot minute, but significant minute players doing the same thing a similar proportion of the time they are on, with better results than DDR.

There are other things at play - including when in the game (intensity of defense and ability), whether the team is good or not (intensity of defense) and, completely unmeasured by this stat, impact other players (rhythm) and, relatedly, opportunity cost vs. other play types (to include at what point the curve declines). And across different teams (and sometimes within team), different players on the court (impacting spacing, passing options, etc.) and play designs can make one guys mix of PnRs very different than another guys.

Still. DDR is still better than LaVine and Coby at this (by maybe a point a game impact, likely less) - agreed. But despite that, the team’s offense has been bad - and you can see that other players play worse when we go heavy DDR lead.

And there is no rule that says that you keep the same proportion of PnRs - not all teams use it the same amount. Lacking DDR, that might impact the proportion of time player go to PnR rather than a different type of play. For instance, Coby this season is elite in spot ups, way better PPP than DDR PnR - maybe more of those get set up for last shots, as they were for Reggie.

[MikeDC]

And, just to close the loop on it, no, you can't just expect to double the number of possessions a guy is getting, and have him maintain efficiency. There are always exceptions, but generally, water reaches its level. We see this with Coby, right? It's one thing to be successful if you occasionally run a PnR (or any type of play) when the defense isn't really keying on you. It's something else entirely to do it over and over again, every game, every year, and be good at it even when the defense knows it's coming.

That's the point here. That's what DeMar does, and what most of those other guys do not. The stat, when you look at the entire sample, and not little snips, shows that quite clearly.

Except that: (1) you ignored that DDR and a number of other players have swung significantly year to year or over time; you disregard, for instance, Steph’s wild swings, where stability in that number is central to your argument.

No, sustained high level play is what I'm arguing. Steph's "wild swings" are swinging between really freaking good at the lower level to all-time great.

SGA has similar swings.

No, SGA has a similar range of production, which starts at really good and is getting better.

DDR seems unusual in relative stability, both pre 2nd season in SA and post. But why couldn’t LaVine or Coby could easily make a jump the same way DDR made in his 2nd season in SA, at some point down the line?

Well, because the top end range of Zach's production is basically like the low end range of Demar's.
DDR: 0.99, 0.97, 0.92, 0.93, 1.05, 1.02, 1.03, 1.06, 1.04 ~5486 Possessions, 1.00 PPP
Zach XXXX, XXX, 0.90, 0.90, 0.89, 1.00, 0.96, 0.93, 0.94 ~3264 Possesions, 0.93 PPP

There's a big sample for both guys, and the weighted average for DeMar is the upper end for Zach. The average for Zach is the low end for DeMar.

(2) you have nothing statistical to support your claim that a guy who has about 1/2 to 2/3 the volume of DDR, where it’s a common play for the player (so defenses prepared) at a higher efficiency than DDR, wouldn’t have it translate at DDR level usage. This is not someone doing it occasionally, this is a significant chunk of a significant mpg player doing it, but instead of 7-8 possessions per game, 4-5, but in a similar proportion of time that they are on the court.

Not every claim needs to be statistical. Lots of things, like this truth, are simply common sense if you watch basketball. If you really want to make the claim that all the Wizards need to do is ramp up the amount of PnR that Tyus Jones runs, and he'll magically produce like Tyrese Haliburton, then nobody is going to argue that as a point of statistics. They're probably not even going to argue with you. They're just going to politely nod and disregard everything that you say.

Just like if you were to say that if we suddenly force fed, say, Patrick Williams until he was taking 8 3s a game instead of 4, you think he would still shoot 41%. I mean, it's possible he would, but most people implicitly understand that's extremely unlikely because those marginal shots will become more difficult.

Still. DDR is still better than LaVine and Coby at this (by maybe a point a game impact, likely less) - agreed. But despite that, the team’s offense has been bad - and you can see that other players play worse when we go heavy DDR lead.

And there is no rule that says that you keep the same proportion of PnRs - not all teams use it the same amount. Lacking DDR, that might impact the proportion of time player go to PnR rather than a different type of play. For instance, Coby this season is elite in spot ups, way better PPP than DDR PnR - maybe more of those get set up for last shots, as they were for Reggie.

There's no rule, but there are the physical realities of basketball. There's a reason that teams put the ball in their best playmaker's hands and tell him to go cook. It's because, as I've shown here, the guys who are elite at this can get a bucket against a defense even when they know it's coming. If you want to make a statistical argument of it, why don't all these teams set up these great spot up shooters at the end of games? Spots ups generally have a higher PPP than PnR. You, I, and everyone knows the answer, which is that it's really easy to put a defender close to a spot up shooter and take him out of a play.

Lots of those Reggie Miller plays were Reggie being proto-Stef and getting his own shot, just from distance. The few times it happens now, it's usually a breakdown. I mean, the game the other night was actually a good example of how it happens. A minute something left in OT, and DeMar collapses the defense and passes to Coby for the open 3.

The Coby spot up is a complement, not a substitute to the DeMar PnR.