Bears 2024 2.0

[Dresden]

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Yeah, and he was going to be the first Bears QB to throw for 4,000 yards this past season as well.

[Dresden]

Just need one team to make a strong offer for Fields - did it say offer?

I don’t know who the “insider” is, this guy, or the “source”

Read on Twitter

I have found nothing about what the offer could be.
Number of people around were taking it as if it has potential legitimacy as an incident. For example:

Read on Twitter

Could all be a telephone game.

I would hate that fields move up trade by including 9 and fields just to secure Odunze.

I’d much rather trade Fields separately, Odunze could very well fall to us at 9 nor do I believe he’s much better of a prospect than Alt Bowers or just going defense.

We’d literally just throw away the additional assets we’d get from a fields trade just to settle for a move up that doesn’t have us getting Marvin Harrison

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

[molepharmer]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

[Dresden]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

That's pretty tempting too, but Bowers can be such a potent weapon, I'd love pairing him and DJ Moore, hopefully use the pick we get from Fields to grab a WR in round 2 like Adonai Mitchell or Xavier Leggette, or get one in FA, and then you still have Mooney, Kmet, Scott. I'd like that group.

[_txchilibowl_]

Interesting as it relates to Fields and the quarterback market. Vacchiano suggests the Commanders could get a 3rd or higher for Howell.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/the-commanders-are-recalibrating-their-3-item-checklist-begins-with-a-new-qb

[ThisGuyFawkes]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

I prefer a trade down from #9, but I agree it depends on who's there and who we've signed in FA.

[fleet]

There’s something like 16-20 ‘True first round’ graded players in this draft. The high number of quarterbacks and perhaps Bowers will cause a situation where a blue chip prospect can be available at #9. I don’t necessarily agree with trading down from one of those blues into the reds if you’re falling out of blue range, and able to draft at a need position. Very limited distance trading down for me. If any. The Bears are very fortunate with that #9

[Miller] The 16 NFL draft prospects with a true Round 1 grade: What makes them 2024 first-rounders, plus comps

QB Caleb Williams, USC, Comp: Aaron Rodgers
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU, Comp: Lamar Jackson
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina, Comp: Justin Herbert
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, Comp: A.J. Green
WR Malik Nabers, LSU, Comp: Stefon Diggs
WR Rome Odunze, Washington, Comp: Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU, Comp: Tee Higgins
TE Brock Bowers, Georgia, Comp: George Kittle
OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame, Comp: Andrew Thomas
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State, Comp: Terron Armstead
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State, Comp: Darnell Wright
EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama, Comp: Josh Allen
EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State, Comp: Trey Hendrickson
DT Byron Murphy II, Texas, Comp: Justin Madubuike
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama, Comp: Devon Witherspoon
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri, Comp: Tre'Davious White

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps

[JockItch43]

Just need one team to make a strong offer for Fields - did it say offer?

I don’t know who the “insider” is, this guy, or the “source”

Read on Twitter

I have found nothing about what the offer could be.
Number of people around were taking it as if it has potential legitimacy as an incident. For example:

Read on Twitter

Could all be a telephone game.

I would hate that fields move up trade by including 9 and fields just to secure Odunze.

I’d much rather trade Fields separately, Odunze could very well fall to us at 9 nor do I believe he’s much better of a prospect than Alt Bowers or just going defense.

We’d literally just throw away the additional assets we’d get from a fields trade just to settle for a move up that doesn’t have us getting Marvin Harrison

That's why I like the proposed Atlanta trade I saw. Fields for their 2nd rounder, and we also swap the 9th with the 8th pick. Would have an even better shot to land a guy like Odunze, Nabers, or Bowers and we still get a much needed high 2nd rounder.

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Interesting as it relates to Fields and the quarterback market. Vacchiano suggests the Commanders could get a 3rd or higher for Howell.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/the-commanders-are-recalibrating-their-3-item-checklist-begins-with-a-new-qb

Thats great, might as well package their 3rd rounder to us too.

[Dresden]

There’s something like 16-20 ‘True first round’ graded players in this draft. The high number of quarterbacks and perhaps Bowers will cause a situation where a blue chip prospect can be available at #9. I don’t necessarily agree with trading down from one of those blues into the reds if you’re falling out of blue range, and able to draft at a need position. Very limited distance trading down for me. If any. The Bears are very fortunate with that #9

[Miller] The 16 NFL draft prospects with a true Round 1 grade: What makes them 2024 first-rounders, plus comps

QB Caleb Williams, USC, Comp: Aaron Rodgers
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU, Comp: Lamar Jackson
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina, Comp: Justin Herbert
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, Comp: A.J. Green
WR Malik Nabers, LSU, Comp: Stefon Diggs
WR Rome Odunze, Washington, Comp: Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU, Comp: Tee Higgins
TE Brock Bowers, Georgia, Comp: George Kittle
OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame, Comp: Andrew Thomas
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State, Comp: Terron Armstead
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State, Comp: Darnell Wright
EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama, Comp: Josh Allen
EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State, Comp: Trey Hendrickson
DT Byron Murphy II, Texas, Comp: Justin Madubuike
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama, Comp: Devon Witherspoon
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri, Comp: Tre'Davious White

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps

what happened to Kool Aid? He went from being a top 12 pick in a lot of mocks a few months ago, to now not even being the first CB from his own team taken.

[Betta Bulleavit]

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Yeah, and he was going to be the first Bears QB to throw for 4,000 yards this past season as well.

Yeah, seeing as if he didn’t hit that goal, why should he continue setting any goals for himself. Why not just retire….

[HearshotKDS]

There’s something like 16-20 ‘True first round’ graded players in this draft. The high number of quarterbacks and perhaps Bowers will cause a situation where a blue chip prospect can be available at #9. I don’t necessarily agree with trading down from one of those blues into the reds if you’re falling out of blue range, and able to draft at a need position. Very limited distance trading down for me. If any. The Bears are very fortunate with that #9

[Miller] The 16 NFL draft prospects with a true Round 1 grade: What makes them 2024 first-rounders, plus comps

QB Caleb Williams, USC, Comp: Aaron Rodgers
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU, Comp: Lamar Jackson
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina, Comp: Justin Herbert
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, Comp: A.J. Green
WR Malik Nabers, LSU, Comp: Stefon Diggs
WR Rome Odunze, Washington, Comp: Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU, Comp: Tee Higgins
TE Brock Bowers, Georgia, Comp: George Kittle
OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame, Comp: Andrew Thomas
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State, Comp: Terron Armstead
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State, Comp: Darnell Wright
EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama, Comp: Josh Allen
EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State, Comp: Trey Hendrickson
DT Byron Murphy II, Texas, Comp: Justin Madubuike
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama, Comp: Devon Witherspoon
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri, Comp: Tre'Davious White

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps

what happened to Kool Aid? He went from being a top 12 pick in a lot of mocks a few months ago, to now not even being the first CB from his own team taken.

Matt Miller is a Bleacher report flunky with no NFL experience is the short answer. I can see dropping Latu if they are assuming worst case with the neck but no Koolaid or Newton is clickbait bad. Some of the comps are ridiculous too, the big example that immediately jumped out to me was: Terron Armstead was an undersized hyper athletic Tackle - Olu is a prototypical size with decent athleticism guy and their games look nothing alike. MIA asks armstead to pull and block Dbs on the edge or S at the 3rd level lmao Penn state was happy if Olu could block the guy in front of him on runs plays they are not similar LTs.

[dice]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

i don't think people appreciate how much actual spending capital the bears have in free agency

players under contract for 2024 at greater than the vet minimum (excluding fields): 24
combined cap hits of those 24 players: 140.1 mil
combined cap hits of top 3 draft picks (those over $1 mil): 12.1
franchise tag for jaylon: 19.8
obvious returnees at $1 mil or less (sewell, sanborn, t. smith, bagent): 3.9
total 2024 cap commitments to 32 players: 175.9
adjusted 2024 cap: 260.3

available cap to sign/retain 19 players and bring roster to 51: 84.4 mil

now, the bears are not going to sign 19 free agents at greater than league minimum. last year they brought in 14, so we'll use that number again. the 5 min salary additions/retentions bring cap space down to around 80 mil

around 80 mil in 2024 cap available to sign around 14 incoming free agents

but here's the rub: the year 1 cap hit of a multi-year free agent signing is generally lower than the annual average (AAV). for example, khalil mack got a 23.5 AAV contract from the bears. but his year 1 cap hit was only 13.8 mil (59% of average). if the bears decided to do that with each and every one of the 14 or so incoming free agents, the 80 mil in available 2024 cap hits would be boosted by 70% to over 135 mil in AAV. of course, that would require heavily mortgaging the future in order to go "all in" on 2024 w/ a rookie QB. that would be foolish. and some if not most of the contracts will be shorter-term. but i certainly expect that there will be some degree of cap hit deferral that poles will engage in. maybe the 80 mil or so in 2024 cap availability will jump to 90-95 mil in AAV. and that's IN ADDITION to jaylon on the franchise tag

the bottom line is that the bears have more than enough money to adequately fill every major hole on the roster prior to the draft. and i'd be surprised if they don't...other than potentially leaving the 3rd starting WR role open in the hopes that odunze drops to #9. that doesn't mean they won't sign a low-end starter at one or more positions and leave it open to competition w/ a rookie though

but even if the bears don't sign a high-end 2nd TE in FA (and i think it's somewhat unlikely that they do - bringing back lewis is a good possibility), i'm still trading back from #9 if odunze isn't there rather than taking bowers

[dice]

There’s something like 16-20 ‘True first round’ graded players in this draft. The high number of quarterbacks and perhaps Bowers will cause a situation where a blue chip prospect can be available at #9. I don’t necessarily agree with trading down from one of those blues into the reds if you’re falling out of blue range, and able to draft at a need position. Very limited distance trading down for me. If any. The Bears are very fortunate with that #9

[Miller] The 16 NFL draft prospects with a true Round 1 grade: What makes them 2024 first-rounders, plus comps

QB Caleb Williams, USC, Comp: Aaron Rodgers
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU, Comp: Lamar Jackson
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina, Comp: Justin Herbert
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, Comp: A.J. Green
WR Malik Nabers, LSU, Comp: Stefon Diggs
WR Rome Odunze, Washington, Comp: Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU, Comp: Tee Higgins
TE Brock Bowers, Georgia, Comp: George Kittle
OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame, Comp: Andrew Thomas
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State, Comp: Terron Armstead
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State, Comp: Darnell Wright
EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama, Comp: Josh Allen
EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State, Comp: Trey Hendrickson
DT Byron Murphy II, Texas, Comp: Justin Madubuike
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama, Comp: Devon Witherspoon
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri, Comp: Tre'Davious White

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps

what happened to Kool Aid? He went from being a top 12 pick in a lot of mocks a few months ago, to now not even being the first CB from his own team taken.

Matt Miller is a Bleacher report flunky with no NFL experience is the short answer. I can see dropping Latu if they are assuming worst case with the neck but no Koolaid or Newton is clickbait bad. Some of the comps are ridiculous too, the big example that immediately jumped out to me was: Terron Armstead was an undersized hyper athletic Tackle - Olu is a prototypical size with decent athleticism guy and their games look nothing alike. MIA asks armstead to pull and block Dbs on the edge or S at the 3rd level lmao Penn state was happy if Olu could block the guy in front of him on runs plays they are not similar LTs.

it's certainly not clickbait. here are the consensus tiers w/in 1st round for recent big boards:

caleb
harrison
maye

nabers
bowers
fashanu
alt
odunze
daniels

fuaga
arnold
turner
latu
verse
wiggins
q mitchell
latham
newton
mckinstry
mims
dejean
thomas
murphy

guyton
powers
nix
coleman
de robinson
franklin
fautanu
rakestraw
morgan
mccarthy

[dice]

I don’t know who the “insider” is, this guy, or the “source”

Read on Twitter

I have found nothing about what the offer could be.
Number of people around were taking it as if it has potential legitimacy as an incident. For example:

Read on Twitter

Could all be a telephone game.

I would hate that fields move up trade by including 9 and fields just to secure Odunze.

I’d much rather trade Fields separately, Odunze could very well fall to us at 9 nor do I believe he’s much better of a prospect than Alt Bowers or just going defense.

We’d literally just throw away the additional assets we’d get from a fields trade just to settle for a move up that doesn’t have us getting Marvin Harrison

That's why I like the proposed Atlanta trade I saw. Fields for their 2nd rounder, and we also swap the 9th with the 8th pick. Would have an even better shot to land a guy like Odunze, Nabers, or Bowers and we still get a much needed high 2nd rounder.

most people have ATL taking an EDGE at #8, but given the evaluation gap between nabers/odunze and the top EDGE prospects, they might very well scoop nabers or odunze if given the opportunity. that said, ATL has no reason to give us more than their 2nd rounder unless they fear PIT or tampa might give up their 1st (or multiple later picks)

[dice]

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-mock-draft-roundup-2024-bears-land-caleb-williams-rome-odunze-first-round-projections/

Multiple draft analysts weighing in on what they think the Bears will do. The consensus is that we go with Caleb #1 and Odunze at #9. The only two guys that disagree have us going with Caleb and Fashanu or Caleb and Terrion Arnold. I disagree on both of the outliers. Bears will either go Caleb and Odunze or they will trade down from #9 to try to get some extra picks in this very strong draft.

your lips to poles's ears

[Dresden]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

i don't think people appreciate how much actual spending capital the bears have in free agency

players under contract for 2024 at greater than the vet minimum of (excluding fields): 24
combined cap hits of those 24 players: 140.1 mil
combined cap hits of top 3 draft picks (those over $1 mil): 12.1
franchise tag for jaylon: 19.8
obvious returnees at $1 mil or less (sewell, sanborn, t. smith, bagent): 3.9
total 2024 cap commitments to 32 players: 175.9
adjusted 2024 cap: 260.3

available cap to sign/retain 19 players and bring roster to 51: 84.4 mil

now, the bears are not going to sign 19 free agents at greater than league minimum. last year they brought in 14, so we'll use that number again. the 5 min salary additions/retentions bring cap space down to around 80 mil

around 80 mil in 2024 cap available to sign around 14 incoming free agents

but here's the rub: the year 1 cap hit of a multi-year free agent signing is generally lower than the annual average (AAV). for example, khalil mack got a 23.5 AAV contract from the bears. but his year 1 cap hit was only 13.8 mil (59% of average). if the bears decided to do that with each and every one of the 14 or so incoming free agents, the 80 mil in available 2024 cap hits would be boosted by 70% to over 135 mil in AAV. of course, that would require heavily mortgaging the future in order to go "all in" on 2024 w/ a rookie QB. that would be foolish. and some if not most of the contracts will be shorter-term. but i certainly expect that there will be some degree of cap hit deferral that poles will engage in. maybe the 80 mil or so in 2024 cap availability will jump to 90-95 mil in AAV. and that's IN ADDITION to jaylon on the franchise tag

the bottom line is that the bears have more than enough money to adequately fill every major hole on the roster prior to the draft. and i'd be surprised if they don't...other than potentially leaving the 3rd starting WR role open in the hopes that odunze drops to #9. that doesn't mean they won't sign a low-end starter at one or more positions and leave it open to competition w/ a rookie though

but even if the bears don't sign a high-end 2nd TE in FA (and i think it's somewhat unlikely that they do - bringing back lewis is a good possibility), i'm still trading back from #9 if odunze isn't there rather than taking bowers

Just based on last year's FA, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we actually do fill all our needs in free agency. Last year we had gaping holes on both lines, and all we got was Nate Davis, and then Ngakoue very late in the process when it seemed like no one else wanted him. We will have to compete with other teams for a limited number of free agents, and Poles seems to be pretty picky about who he offers a contract to.

I'll be happy if we at least get a starting center and a safety in FA. If we can also get an Edge, a WR, a TE, some more depth on both lines, that will be gravy.

[NecessaryEvil]

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lol FYI this convo was about pizza, not QB's

[heir_jordan22]

I agree. I'd do it for Nabors, but not Odunze. If I had to pick between Odunze and Bowers, I'd take Bowers, too.

I'm probably in the minority but if Odunze is gone and Bowers is there at #9, I'm trading back to get a mid-late 1st + a 2nd. I also don't think the Bears will go into the draft without signing a backup TE in free agency, of which quite a few are available. Trading back from #9, could also net a package of, for example, JPJ + M Corley or B Thomas + Z Frazier or an Edge + WR, etc.

i don't think people appreciate how much actual spending capital the bears have in free agency

players under contract for 2024 at greater than the vet minimum of (excluding fields): 24
combined cap hits of those 24 players: 140.1 mil
combined cap hits of top 3 draft picks (those over $1 mil): 12.1
franchise tag for jaylon: 19.8
obvious returnees at $1 mil or less (sewell, sanborn, t. smith, bagent): 3.9
total 2024 cap commitments to 32 players: 175.9
adjusted 2024 cap: 260.3

available cap to sign/retain 19 players and bring roster to 51: 84.4 mil

now, the bears are not going to sign 19 free agents at greater than league minimum. last year they brought in 14, so we'll use that number again. the 5 min salary additions/retentions bring cap space down to around 80 mil

around 80 mil in 2024 cap available to sign around 14 incoming free agents

but here's the rub: the year 1 cap hit of a multi-year free agent signing is generally lower than the annual average (AAV). for example, khalil mack got a 23.5 AAV contract from the bears. but his year 1 cap hit was only 13.8 mil (59% of average). if the bears decided to do that with each and every one of the 14 or so incoming free agents, the 80 mil in available 2024 cap hits would be boosted by 70% to over 135 mil in AAV. of course, that would require heavily mortgaging the future in order to go "all in" on 2024 w/ a rookie QB. that would be foolish. and some if not most of the contracts will be shorter-term. but i certainly expect that there will be some degree of cap hit deferral that poles will engage in. maybe the 80 mil or so in 2024 cap availability will jump to 90-95 mil in AAV. and that's IN ADDITION to jaylon on the franchise tag

the bottom line is that the bears have more than enough money to adequately fill every major hole on the roster prior to the draft. and i'd be surprised if they don't...other than potentially leaving the 3rd starting WR role open in the hopes that odunze drops to #9. that doesn't mean they won't sign a low-end starter at one or more positions and leave it open to competition w/ a rookie though

but even if the bears don't sign a high-end 2nd TE in FA (and i think it's somewhat unlikely that they do - bringing back lewis is a good possibility), i'm still trading back from #9 if odunze isn't there rather than taking bowers

Great breakdown of the aav v cap defferal. I think Poles will give out one, maybe two, big contracts. And then use the rest of the money to cover every hole. The interesting part will be who gets the big dollars.

It was a huge surprise when the big contract went to Edmunds, and then when he get a second starter in Edwards. Sanborn had a good rookie season so i think the expectation was to add a guy but that it wasn't a glaring position of need like DE, CB or OT. The big contracts in this FA period may also be a surpise.

I personally think Bowers can be used as a hybrid TE/WR depending on the set, which would allow him to play virtually every snap. But i agree with the logic here generally and its rarely a bad thing to trade down for extra picks. I'd like to bring back Marcedes Lewis but i don't think that precludes us from signing someone like Fant or drafting Bowers or another TE in the 3rd or 4th.