Patrick Williams next deal discussion with poll

[League Circles]

You are usually more right than me on these things, but the one factor that we have on our side is that he is a RFA. I'm a big believer in the market dampening effect of FO's saying that they'll match any offers. Pat will be coming off a season that was more in line with Ayo's last season than Coby's. Those two things coupled with the fact that Pat will go into free agency after a season-ending injury and not having a chance to show he's healthy, could work in the Bulls favor.

I don't know that he's going to have a lot of other bidders, but I don't know that it will matter. This FO hasn't found a way to negotiate hard on anyone yet, why do you think they'll start with the guy who was their first draft pick, whom they've never even brought in a competitor to his minutes and gifted a starting role to, and made untouchable in trades?

I just can't see them strong arming him at all. They're going to have a proactive, market deal for him on day 1 of FA IMO.

I don't disagree that they'll offer him a market value deal preemptively on day 1. I just don't see why it would be for close to the numbers you suggested. Pure (low volume) 3 and D isn't worth as much as you think. Look at Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter. Hell, look at Coby White from less than a year ago from this FO. He was definitely playing better than Patrick and got essentially a 3 year MLE offer. I know there is probably at least one guy around the league who is similarly mediocre to Patrick who got 20 or 25 mil a year, but I'd guess the examples to the contrary (similar guys who got way less) are much more abundant.

Paying Patrick Williams north of 20 million a year right now would be profoundly insane IMO.

[dougthonus]

I don't disagree that they'll offer him a market value deal preemptively on day 1. I just don't see why it would be for close to the numbers you suggested. Pure (low volume) 3 and D isn't worth as much as you think. Look at Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter. Hell, look at Coby White from less than a year ago from this FO. He was definitely playing better than Patrick and got essentially a 3 year MLE offer. I know there is probably at least one guy around the league who is similarly mediocre to Patrick who got 20 or 25 mil a year, but I'd guess the examples to the contrary (similar guys who got way less) are much more abundant.

Paying Patrick Williams north of 20 million a year right now would be profoundly insane IMO.

We'll find out. I think the difference with Craig is that he was 33 and had one good shooting year in his entire career. Pat's 22 and has shot well from 3 every year in his career. It's just not a comparable.

Guards aren't comparable either. There are a ton of guards who can shoot.

Maybe you are right though. Grant Williams is the best comparison I can find and he got 13M a year though Grant was effectively 3 years older entering the league. That said, we reportedly already offered him 4/64. I doubt that number goes down even though it probably should.

[League Circles]

I don't disagree that they'll offer him a market value deal preemptively on day 1. I just don't see why it would be for close to the numbers you suggested. Pure (low volume) 3 and D isn't worth as much as you think. Look at Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter. Hell, look at Coby White from less than a year ago from this FO. He was definitely playing better than Patrick and got essentially a 3 year MLE offer. I know there is probably at least one guy around the league who is similarly mediocre to Patrick who got 20 or 25 mil a year, but I'd guess the examples to the contrary (similar guys who got way less) are much more abundant.

Paying Patrick Williams north of 20 million a year right now would be profoundly insane IMO.

We'll find out. I think the difference with Craig is that he was 33 and had one good shooting year in his entire career. Pat's 22 and has shot well from 3 every year in his career. It's just not a comparable.

Guards aren't comparable either. There are a ton of guards who can shoot.

Maybe you are right though. Grant Williams is the best comparison I can find and he got 13M a year though Grant was effectively 3 years older entering the league. That said, we reportedly already offered him 4/64. I doubt that number goes down even though it probably should.

Damn, I didn't know about our reported offer. If that's true I agree, it's unlikely to go down even if it should. But considering he didn't improve, I do think they'll stand firm on that. So first year salary probably something like 14-15 million.

[kodo]

I know there is probably at least one guy around the league who is similarly mediocre to Patrick who got 20 or 25 mil a year, but I'd guess the examples to the contrary (similar guys who got way less) are much more abundant.

Paying Patrick Williams north of 20 million a year right now would be profoundly insane IMO.

Patrick's agent will definitely point to Deandre Hunter. When extended, he was 13 ppg 3 rpg 1 apg, 38% from 3. Considered a good defender. He got $20M - $25M over 4 years. But mostly got his contract because he was a #4 pick. Hunter also missed a lot of time like Patrick.

Most of the league definitely thinks that's a bad contract, but then again most of the league wouldn't have picked patrick #4 either. All that matters is what AK thinks.

[Ice Man]

Patrick's agent will definitely point to Deandre Hunter. When extended, he was 13 ppg 3 rpg 1 apg, 38% from 3. Considered a good defender. He got $20M - $25M over 4 years. But mostly got his contract because he was a #4 pick. Hunter also missed a lot of time like Patrick.

Sounds about right. The good news is that Hunter has improved this season, in Year 5 of his career, after signing that big contract. The bad news is that he has improved from being bad to meh.

[Dan Z]

I don't disagree that they'll offer him a market value deal preemptively on day 1. I just don't see why it would be for close to the numbers you suggested. Pure (low volume) 3 and D isn't worth as much as you think. Look at Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter. Hell, look at Coby White from less than a year ago from this FO. He was definitely playing better than Patrick and got essentially a 3 year MLE offer. I know there is probably at least one guy around the league who is similarly mediocre to Patrick who got 20 or 25 mil a year, but I'd guess the examples to the contrary (similar guys who got way less) are much more abundant.

Paying Patrick Williams north of 20 million a year right now would be profoundly insane IMO.

We'll find out. I think the difference with Craig is that he was 33 and had one good shooting year in his entire career. Pat's 22 and has shot well from 3 every year in his career. It's just not a comparable.

Guards aren't comparable either. There are a ton of guards who can shoot.

Maybe you are right though. Grant Williams is the best comparison I can find and he got 13M a year though Grant was effectively 3 years older entering the league. That said, we reportedly already offered him 4/64. I doubt that number goes down even though it probably should.

Damn, I didn't know about our reported offer. If that's true I agree, it's unlikely to go down even if it should. But considering he didn't improve, I do think they'll stand firm on that. So first year salary probably something like 14-15 million.

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

[League Circles]

We'll find out. I think the difference with Craig is that he was 33 and had one good shooting year in his entire career. Pat's 22 and has shot well from 3 every year in his career. It's just not a comparable.

Guards aren't comparable either. There are a ton of guards who can shoot.

Maybe you are right though. Grant Williams is the best comparison I can find and he got 13M a year though Grant was effectively 3 years older entering the league. That said, we reportedly already offered him 4/64. I doubt that number goes down even though it probably should.

Damn, I didn't know about our reported offer. If that's true I agree, it's unlikely to go down even if it should. But considering he didn't improve, I do think they'll stand firm on that. So first year salary probably something like 14-15 million.

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

Absolutely, of course. I actually like him a lot, way more than most fans. He has a lot of ability to be a very good player. But he hasn't shown it yet in 4 years. We are not a good team and need to be very cautious on all contracts we give out. So far Vuc and Zach and Carter all appear to be bad contracts. We actually have a solid chance to re-sign Demar on a good contract (or we could do another overpay who knows).

I think we need to try our best to trade Vuc, Zach and/or Carter before FA. I'm willing to pay Patrick more if we get rid of either Vuc, Demar, Zach or Caruso before FA. Cause I think Patrick and Vuc at the 4/5 is a critical weakness. Patrick is a good defender but not really a good interior defender and Vuc is terrible. So if we can move vouch and get some sort of better defender at center then I'm more comfortable with Patrick playing more minutes at the 4. Or if we get rid of Demar or Caruso or Zach, it opens up minutes for Patrick at small forward. I have no interest in re-signing Patrick to more than MLE type money unless he has a sensibly expanded role.

[League Circles]

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

[Dan Z]

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

[League Circles]

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

At 13 mil per I'd want him for as long as possible. I think that's his floor. The problem with more money is the years and having Caruso and likely Demar still blocking him from his natural position of SF.

[2weekswithpay]

If PW asks for too much do you think the Bulls should let him walk?

I'm not sure what "too much" would be. 25 million? More? Less?

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

I've had the Pistons as a suitor for Pat all year for a few reasons.

1. There were reports that the Pistons' GM Troy Weaver liked Pat before the draft and promised to draft him 7th overall. Weaver has a habit of going after disappointing young players, he traded for Wiseman and Marvin Bagley. There were rumors about a Pat and Jerami Grant swap 2 years ago.

2. Pat fills an immediate need for them with defense and shooting at the 4 IMO. Isaiah Stewart is more of a backup 5 than a 4.

3. The Pistons have intentionally put themselves in a position to spend money this summer. It would be foolish to expect them not to spend. With a team full of young players on rookie contracts, they can afford to overpay someone. Likewise, the Pistons can structure Pat's contract in a way that makes it difficult for the Bulls to match it considering how close this team is to the tax line.

[Dan Z]

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

I've had the Pistons as a suitor for Pat all year for a few reasons.

1. There were reports that the Pistons' GM Troy Weaver liked Pat before the draft and promised to draft him 7th overall. Weaver has a habit of going after disappointing young players, he traded for Wiseman and Marvin Bagley. There were rumors about a Pat and Jerami Grant swap 2 years ago.

2. Pat fills an immediate need for them with defense and shooting at the 4 IMO. Isaiah Stewart is more of a backup 5 than a 4.

3. The Pistons have intentionally put themselves in a position to spend money this summer. It would be foolish to expect them not to spend. With a team full of young players on rookie contracts, they can afford to overpay someone. Likewise, the Pistons can structure Pat's contract in a way that makes it difficult for the Bulls to match it considering how close this team is to the tax line.

Two other teams that come to mind are the Spurs and Hornets. The Hornets will have cap space correct?

It also depends on how the draft ends up.

[HomoSapien]

Patrick's agent will definitely point to Deandre Hunter. When extended, he was 13 ppg 3 rpg 1 apg, 38% from 3. Considered a good defender. He got $20M - $25M over 4 years. But mostly got his contract because he was a #4 pick. Hunter also missed a lot of time like Patrick.

Sounds about right. The good news is that Hunter has improved this season, in Year 5 of his career, after signing that big contract. The bad news is that he has improved from being bad to meh.

Hunter is a solid comp, but it's hard to use him as a market setter for Pat since he signed his contract two seasons ago now. Furthermore, Hunter is simply a better player. Pat's younger at 22, but he's a four-year-vet and is currently worse than Hunter was a a 22-year-old rookie. Usually, a player from the current free-agent class has to set the market (whether it's through free-agency or via an extension). Pat's got very little leverage at the moment, and the Bulls will offer him what they are comfortable with and tell him to find an offer sheet that's better. That'll be a tough task because the Bulls are going to tell teams they have every intention of matching him.

I still feel like the most likely outcome is him signing for the QO. That said, if I'm him I'm desperately trying the Bulls to agree to the 4yr/$64 million they offered before the injury. He'll secure enough money for his family for generations and will still only be 26 when he's a free-agent next. He has plenty of time to earn that huge pay day.

[HomoSapien]

Sorry I didn't answer on the dollars. I would offer a 5 year deal starting at 13 mil off the bat. I wouldn't budge from that (but would go shorter if he wanted) unless he gets an offer sheet from another team. I'd probably match on as much as like 4 years, 70 mil. More than that and I probably let him walk, especially if we haven't/can't move Zach or Vuc or Caruso.

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

I've had the Pistons as a suitor for Pat all year for a few reasons.

1. There were reports that the Pistons' GM Troy Weaver liked Pat before the draft and promised to draft him 7th overall. Weaver has a habit of going after disappointing young players, he traded for Wiseman and Marvin Bagley. There were rumors about a Pat and Jerami Grant swap 2 years ago.

2. Pat fills an immediate need for them with defense and shooting at the 4 IMO. Isaiah Stewart is more of a backup 5 than a 4.

3. The Pistons have intentionally put themselves in a position to spend money this summer. It would be foolish to expect them not to spend. With a team full of young players on rookie contracts, they can afford to overpay someone. Likewise, the Pistons can structure Pat's contract in a way that makes it difficult for the Bulls to match it considering how close this team is to the tax line.

The Pistons have definitely been rumored to have been enamored with him in the past, but I bet they won't pursue him. With how awful the Pistons are and how much they've invested in Monty Williams, there's too much pressure to improve. Weaver's job is going to be on the line next season if they have another dismal season. I fully expect them to pursue vets like Tobias Harris and perhaps even DeRozan.

[2weekswithpay]

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

I've had the Pistons as a suitor for Pat all year for a few reasons.

1. There were reports that the Pistons' GM Troy Weaver liked Pat before the draft and promised to draft him 7th overall. Weaver has a habit of going after disappointing young players, he traded for Wiseman and Marvin Bagley. There were rumors about a Pat and Jerami Grant swap 2 years ago.

2. Pat fills an immediate need for them with defense and shooting at the 4 IMO. Isaiah Stewart is more of a backup 5 than a 4.

3. The Pistons have intentionally put themselves in a position to spend money this summer. It would be foolish to expect them not to spend. With a team full of young players on rookie contracts, they can afford to overpay someone. Likewise, the Pistons can structure Pat's contract in a way that makes it difficult for the Bulls to match it considering how close this team is to the tax line.

Two other teams that come to mind are the Spurs and Hornets. The Hornets will have cap space correct?

It also depends on how the draft ends up.

For the Hornets, it really depends on what happens with Bridges as well as the draft. If he leaves then they'll have the money to give Pat an offer plus it'll open up minutes at both forward positions. So they may draft a forward and attempt signing Pat. Helps that Pat is from the area as well.

[2weekswithpay]

13 Million...hmm...slightly more than his QO. The 5 years worries me a bit. Maybe the last year is a TO?

I wonder if any other team will offer him a contract? I've talked about Detroit being a possibility, but I have no idea if they're really interested in him.

I've had the Pistons as a suitor for Pat all year for a few reasons.

1. There were reports that the Pistons' GM Troy Weaver liked Pat before the draft and promised to draft him 7th overall. Weaver has a habit of going after disappointing young players, he traded for Wiseman and Marvin Bagley. There were rumors about a Pat and Jerami Grant swap 2 years ago.

2. Pat fills an immediate need for them with defense and shooting at the 4 IMO. Isaiah Stewart is more of a backup 5 than a 4.

3. The Pistons have intentionally put themselves in a position to spend money this summer. It would be foolish to expect them not to spend. With a team full of young players on rookie contracts, they can afford to overpay someone. Likewise, the Pistons can structure Pat's contract in a way that makes it difficult for the Bulls to match it considering how close this team is to the tax line.

The Pistons have definitely been rumored to have been enamored with him in the past, but I bet they won't pursue him. With how awful the Pistons are and how much they've invested in Monty Williams, there's too much pressure to improve. Weaver's job is going to be on the line next season if they have another dismal season. I fully expect them to pursue vets like Tobias Harris and perhaps even DeRozan.

I expect them to pursue Tobias Harris as well but there aren't that many forwards available this offseason. After Harris, the only other good option seems to be Miles Bridges. The Pistons need shooting so I don't consider Derozan to be an option for them.

[Chuck Everett]

I would offer him a QO. Let him go his money in RFA. He hasn't been good enough for him/his representation to demand more. Even if he takes the QO, it doesn't hurt the Bulls. He's forced to ball out, if he wants a great contract. Otherwise, he will be getting MLE money.

[Dan Z]

I would offer him a QO. Let him go his money in RFA. He hasn't been good enough for him/his representation to demand more. Even if he takes the QO, it doesn't hurt the Bulls. He's forced to ball out, if he wants a great contract. Otherwise, he will be getting MLE money.

It depends on if another team offers him a contract. He might want more than one year (if possible) because of his current injury.

The other thing to keep in mind is that if he takes the QO then he can veto any trades. That's not a big deal, but wanted to point that out.

[Chuck Everett]

I would offer him a QO. Let him go his money in RFA. He hasn't been good enough for him/his representation to demand more. Even if he takes the QO, it doesn't hurt the Bulls. He's forced to ball out, if he wants a great contract. Otherwise, he will be getting MLE money.

It depends on if another team offers him a contract. He might want more than one year (if possible) because of his current injury.

The other thing to keep in mind is that if he takes the QO then he can veto any trades. That's not a big deal, but wanted to point that out.

I don't agree with letting him walk per se if I can offer a QO. However, few teams have cap space anyway. His team would have to find a sign and trade. I mean fat chance getting big dollars off of these past 4 seasons. I like Pat (he played for Coach Ham), but I abhor paying guys who don't deserve it. If he's not willing to take a fair deal, fine, play on the QO. If he over performs, he probably still needs the Bulls to help facilitate a S&T at a minimum. There is no downside to the front office being patient with regards to a deal with him, IMO.

[Dan Z]

I would offer him a QO. Let him go his money in RFA. He hasn't been good enough for him/his representation to demand more. Even if he takes the QO, it doesn't hurt the Bulls. He's forced to ball out, if he wants a great contract. Otherwise, he will be getting MLE money.

It depends on if another team offers him a contract. He might want more than one year (if possible) because of his current injury.

The other thing to keep in mind is that if he takes the QO then he can veto any trades. That's not a big deal, but wanted to point that out.

I don't agree with letting him walk per se if I can offer a QO. However, few teams have cap space anyway. His team would have to find a sign and trade. I mean fat chance getting big dollars off of these past 4 seasons. I like Pat (he played for Coach Ham), but I abhor paying guys who don't deserve it. If he's not willing to take a fair deal, fine, play on the QO. If he over performs, he probably still needs the Bulls to help facilitate a S&T at a minimum. There is no downside to the front office being patient with regards to a deal with him, IMO.

I agree. I'm just saying that if another teams offers him a decent contract then do the Bulls match? Someone like the Pistons, Spurs or Charlotte might think he has potential (and is young enough to grow with their core).