Patrick Williams next deal discussion with poll

[DuckIII]

If he takes the QO, we simply stop giving him significant minutes. Good luck getting your payday.

Do teams actually do that? Not threaten to do it, actually do it.

Regardless, it would be colossally stupid of the Bulls to do that in this situation and is yet another ripple of AK's incompetence. Due to having traded away a wealth of future assets (some of which are not past assets) and having completely blown the trade value of your three main veteran players, AK almost has to see Pat work out as the next Coby/Ayo type young prospect. AK can't afford to just sit him to kill his value. He has to try to develop him during a QO due to circumstances of his own making.

Nah. You're falling into the sunk cost trap.

I expect AK will as well unfortunately.

In some circumstances that may be correct, but not this one. There is no opportunity cost because the roster is devoid of better talent to play at his positions.

You’d be sitting him simply to punish him, which no team would ever do nor the union allow which is why what you are advocating is just fan fantasy nonsense anyway. No one actually does that.

[samwana]

Why for Detroit...he's 22 years old and if it works out he can grow with their roster. If not then they're still a bad team and can continue doing what they're doing.

If the Bulls decide they don't want to go beyond a one year deal Detroit can offer more than one. Or of the Bulls are willing to offer multiple years Detroit can match it, but with a higher number overall.

Do you think it'd be better for Detroit to take a chance on PW or give money to vets such as DDR (34 years old), Tobias Harris (31 years old)? I'm not sure what their cap numbers are like but I bet they could sign PW and still go after a solid vet such as Drummond or Olynyk. Also, will DRR or Harris want to go to Detroit?

However, it's also possible that they go after Miles Bridges (personally I wouldn't).

The FA forward list isn't very good.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/forward/

Detroit would profit a lot from a guy like DeRozan taking their young players under his wing and show them how to be pros.
I wouldn't add Bridges to Detroit roster if I were them, rather take a stabilizer, that's what DDR would provide.

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

Depends on what we offer him and what other teams offer and in the end if course where he wants to be.

[Dan Z]

Detroit would profit a lot from a guy like DeRozan taking their young players under his wing and show them how to be pros.
I wouldn't add Bridges to Detroit roster if I were them, rather take a stabilizer, that's what DDR would provide.

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

Depends on what we offer him and what other teams offer and in the end if course where he wants to be.

My guess is he'll have better offers than going to Detroit to be a mentor and he probably doesn't want to spend his remaining NBA years doing that (he's a competitive guy).

[dougthonus]

In some circumstances that may be correct, but not this one. There is no opportunity cost because the roster is devoid of better talent to play at his positions.

You’d be sitting him simply to punish him, which no team would ever do nor the union allow which is why what you are advocating is just fan fantasy nonsense anyway. No one actually does that.

To use an example from the actual Bulls, when Gordon took the QO, we played him 36.6mpg which was 3rd on the team. They played Hinrich just 26.3mpg. History would also say that Gordon likely had a lot of locker room issues even at the time given what has come out about his bipolar behavior since and the rumors of all his aloofness at the time.

So despite having a potential long term guy (Hinrich), whom they loved on the roster that could have played those minutes, even a guy they had absolutely no intention of keeping and likely had personal dislike for was not punished.

I know this is a different regime, but it's really hard to see them doing that with Pat, whom seems well liked by everyone. I think the one thing you could argue is IF they were able to bring in a real competitor at PF who was similarly good and a long term piece then maybe that guy might get the benefit of the doubt tiebreaker if they are just absolutely dead even, but that's also highly unlikely given the resources they'll have.

[WestsideResider]

His next bulls deal should be $0.00

[TheSuzerain]

Do teams actually do that? Not threaten to do it, actually do it.

Regardless, it would be colossally stupid of the Bulls to do that in this situation and is yet another ripple of AK's incompetence. Due to having traded away a wealth of future assets (some of which are not past assets) and having completely blown the trade value of your three main veteran players, AK almost has to see Pat work out as the next Coby/Ayo type young prospect. AK can't afford to just sit him to kill his value. He has to try to develop him during a QO due to circumstances of his own making.

Nah. You're falling into the sunk cost trap.

I expect AK will as well unfortunately.

In some circumstances that may be correct, but not this one. There is no opportunity cost because the roster is devoid of better talent to play at his positions.

You’d be sitting him simply to punish him, which no team would ever do nor the union allow which is why what you are advocating is just fan fantasy nonsense anyway. No one actually does that.

Pretty much no one with a long term offer on the table actually ever takes the QO either...

[dougthonus]

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

I get the feeling DDR will go wherever he gets the most money.

The likely outcome is we miss the playoffs here. He will have then missed the playoffs two years in a row. What makes you think this situation is so much more appealing than Detroit? He's not really competing here either.

You think winning is a meaningful difference maker, when your "winning" is being the 19th best team out of 30? He would have to assume in Chicago that he it's more likely than not that we won't make the playoffs going forward and if he does that we'd just be 1st round fodder.

A team like Detroit that has no where to go but up, may actually have a better vibe to it winning 30 games than this Bulls team winning 37.

[Dan Z]

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

I get the feeling DDR will go wherever he gets the most money.

The likely outcome is we miss the playoffs here. He will have then missed the playoffs two years in a row. What makes you think this situation is so much more appealing than Detroit? He's not really competing here either.

You think winning is a meaningful difference maker, when your "winning" is being the 19th best team out of 30? He would have to assume in Chicago that he it's more likely than not that we won't make the playoffs going forward and if he does that we'd just be 1st round fodder.

A team like Detroit that has no where to go but up, may actually have a better vibe to it winning 30 games than this Bulls team winning 37.

This year Detroit has been an all-time losing team, which is a big reason why I don't think he'd want to go there. Yes, he's not winning in Chicago either, but he's been here a few years and might feel better about turning things around rather than go to another losing situation.

However, it's possible that money sways him and he picks Detroit, but keep in mind that after this season he made 257 million for his career.

Also, there has been talk about DDR going to LA (where he's from) for awhile now so maybe he takes less to go there?

[WindyCityBorn]

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

I get the feeling DDR will go wherever he gets the most money.

The likely outcome is we miss the playoffs here. He will have then missed the playoffs two years in a row. What makes you think this situation is so much more appealing than Detroit? He's not really competing here either.

You think winning is a meaningful difference maker, when your "winning" is being the 19th best team out of 30? He would have to assume in Chicago that he it's more likely than not that we won't make the playoffs going forward and if he does that we'd just be 1st round fodder.

A team like Detroit that has no where to go but up, may actually have a better vibe to it winning 30 games than this Bulls team winning 37.

Detroit would have to offer him a max contract. Detroit isn’t winning 30 games next season. He will get $25 million per from the Bulls and be happy. He would already be gone if they didn’t have a handshake deal,

[DuckIII]

I think the one thing you could argue is IF they were able to bring in a real competitor at PF who was similarly good and a long term piece then maybe that guy might get the benefit of the doubt tiebreaker if they are just absolutely dead even, but that's also highly unlikely given the resources they'll have.

Definitely and rightly so. And frankly I think all of us, including Pat believers like me, are begging this backwards FO to bring in a taller, defending 4 both to compete with Pat and to balance out the roster.

I’ve been banging that drum for 3 years and I know I’m not alone.

[DuckIII]

Nah. You're falling into the sunk cost trap.

I expect AK will as well unfortunately.

In some circumstances that may be correct, but not this one. There is no opportunity cost because the roster is devoid of better talent to play at his positions.

You’d be sitting him simply to punish him, which no team would ever do nor the union allow which is why what you are advocating is just fan fantasy nonsense anyway. No one actually does that.

Pretty much no one with a long term offer on the table actually ever takes the QO either...

Hard to imagine anyone offering Pat a long term offer though under these circumstances. Seems to me the most likely options he’ll have are discount 3 year deal vs. QO. We’ll see.

[jacoby1us]

Patrick Williams has two incomplete seasons which leads to a grade of incomplete for me and then he has two somewhat full seasons played which were average at best. His situation kinda reminds me of Justin Fields and the Bears, the Bulls are stuck in a really bad situation with PW.

My offer wouldn't be anything over 3/$40M if an extension is offered. Team option on year 2.

[GoBlue72391]

I predict QO.

That's interesting, why do you think that?

I'd think if he's not healthy, he'll take the security, because his odds of killing it while not fully healthy aren't so hot anyway.

If he is fully healthy, I think he'll just find a good deal in the marketplace and there will be some team (probably us) that will gamble on his upside. I'd guess if we don't view health as a factor that we offer at least 20M per year.

Honest question - do you think that we'd do this because AK is an idiot or because you think that's a reasonable midpoint in his projected value? (like he could just as easily end up being worth 10 mil as he could be worth 30 mil)

I'm finding it hard to understand why anyone would even mention any of these numbers for Patrick, healthy or not. So far in 4 years he hasn't even played like a guy who is worth a multi year guaranteed contract, let alone some kind of cornerstone. I know 20 mil isn't what it used to be, but so far Patrick Williams is just some rotation guy. There isn't a team in the league IMO that if they had Patrick Williams right now would conclude that they are set, long term, with him as their starting 3 or 4. The guy isn't an efficient scorer, puts up really low scoring and rebounding numbers, and is a non-existent playmaker. All he is is a good defender (which are available extensively for cheap) who can hit low volume, wide open threes at a nice rate but low frequency, with big hands. I know he has a lot of ability, but I see the midpoint in what he'll likely be worth something much more like 15 mil right now, with 3 mil at the low end and maybe 30 mil at the highest. No team is going to think that they can become a contender with him making 30-40 mil even if he reaches his potential.

I don't think anyone is saying he should get this hypothetical $20M+ deal, we're just predicting that he will.

[GoBlue72391]

It will be for the QO. It was already trending in that direction before yesterday’s news.

If Pat and his reps are confident in his potential he’ll take the QO.

If Pat and reps aren’t confident in his longterm health and/or potential, they will sign a longer Bulls friendly contract.

People keep mentioning outside teams giving him a huge contract. Why? He hasn’t earned it at all and there are other more intriguing FAs out there. The Pistons are the one team I could see pursuing him, but they are so terrible that I think they will end up overpaying for middling vets to raise their floor.

This sums up my thoughts perfectly.

If he takes the QO, we simply stop giving him significant minutes. Good luck getting your payday.

lol why? Where's the logic in that? How does that help us in any way?

It would fly in the face of AKME's goal to make this a player-first organization and considering we're not going to get a PF better than the Pats, Craigs, and Javontes of the world, signing Pat to the QO and then just not playing him (out of spite I guess?) would be about the most brain dead move of all time.

I'm not a Pat fan. I don't think he's very good, but that's just a weird thing to do.

[GoBlue72391]

If he takes the QO, we simply stop giving him significant minutes. Good luck getting your payday.

Do teams actually do that? Not threaten to do it, actually do it.

Regardless, it would be colossally stupid of the Bulls to do that in this situation and is yet another ripple of AK's incompetence. Due to having traded away a wealth of future assets (some of which are not past assets) and having completely blown the trade value of your three main veteran players, AK almost has to see Pat work out as the next Coby/Ayo type young prospect. AK can't afford to just sit him to kill his value. He has to try to develop him during a QO due to circumstances of his own making.

Nah. You're falling into the sunk cost trap.

I expect AK will as well unfortunately.

You don't sign players and then just sit them out of spite. What is the purpose of that? How does that help the team unless there are clearly better players at his position, and at that point why wouldn't you just rescind his QO?

AKME is trying to undo this team's negative image from the player's perspective under GarPax and it's one of the only things I think they've been reasonably successful at so far.

[TheSuzerain]

This sums up my thoughts perfectly.

If he takes the QO, we simply stop giving him significant minutes. Good luck getting your payday.

lol why? Where's the logic in that? How does that help us in any way?

It would fly in the face of AKME's goal to make this a player-first organization and considering we're not going to get a PF better than the Pats, Craigs, and Javontes of the world, signing Pat to the QO and then just not playing him (out of spite I guess?) would be about the most brain dead move of all time.

I'm not a Pat fan. I don't think he's very good, but that's just a weird thing to do.

Player-first organizations are for suckers (like AKME). We need value contracts. That's it.

PWill has been given starts/minutes he doesn't deserve his whole career. If he signs the QO, that free ride comes to an end.

He's got some talent/ability, but with the QO our time horizon for PWill the Bull becomes 1 year. And with that time horizon, PWill naturally drops in the rotation.

[dougthonus]

Would DDR agree to go there?

If so, I bet he'd want a big raise.

I get the feeling DDR will go wherever he gets the most money.

The likely outcome is we miss the playoffs here. He will have then missed the playoffs two years in a row. What makes you think this situation is so much more appealing than Detroit? He's not really competing here either.

You think winning is a meaningful difference maker, when your "winning" is being the 19th best team out of 30? He would have to assume in Chicago that he it's more likely than not that we won't make the playoffs going forward and if he does that we'd just be 1st round fodder.

A team like Detroit that has no where to go but up, may actually have a better vibe to it winning 30 games than this Bulls team winning 37.

This year Detroit has been an all-time losing team, which is a big reason why I don't think he'd want to go there. Yes, he's not winning in Chicago either, but he's been here a few years and might feel better about turning things around rather than go to another losing situation.

However, it's possible that money sways him and he picks Detroit, but keep in mind that after this season he made 257 million for his career.

Also, there has been talk about DDR going to LA (where he's from) for awhile now so maybe he takes less to go there?

I suspect it is high bidder or some chance at championship odds. Bulls only win by being the high bidder.

[Mindcrime]

Pat would want what every second contract wants - max money and max lenght based on "potential". With the season ending injury the $20 mil is kinda out of the window, so the most consensus type of the deal that could realisticaly happen is close to 4/60 with a fringe option as the 4th year depending on who blinks first.

[dougthonus]

This year Detroit has been an all-time losing team, which is a big reason why I don't think he'd want to go there. Yes, he's not winning in Chicago either, but he's been here a few years and might feel better about turning things around rather than go to another losing situation.

Detroit would have to offer him a max contract. Detroit isn’t winning 30 games next season. He will get $25 million per from the Bulls and be happy. He would already be gone if they didn’t have a handshake deal,

Reply to both these things at once. I don't think the marginal benefit of Chicago vs Detroit is worth more than $1M a year or so. Missing the playoffs is missing the playoffs. DDR going to Detroit, if he's even remotely worth 25M would also considerably increase their odds of winning.

I'm not saying DDR has to max every dollar, but if he's taking a meaningful discount, it isn't to play on a the 19th best team in the league. Also not saying Detroit would be interested in him either, but if they are, I don't think they have to outbid us by 30M to get him.

However, it's possible that money sways him and he picks Detroit, but keep in mind that after this season he made 257 million for his career.

Also, there has been talk about DDR going to LA (where he's from) for awhile now so maybe he takes less to go there?

It's certainly possible he gives up a lot of money for a location he wants to live in or a chance to win a title. Effectively, that's just choosing a different value prop other than money and completely shifts the topic.

My feeling (which may not be true but is how I look at it)

Probably 98% of contracts can be explained by maximizing money or maximizing chances to win. There are some arbitrages around preferred location due to weather, city, friendships, family, hometown etc.. or opportunity on the team (ie, maybe the Nuggets have the best chance to win but if I'll never see the floor I don't really care, I want to contribute not be the 15th man), but the vast majority of stuff is either money or titles.

Usually if you choose money, you are always taking the most and all the other factors are only tie breakers between two relatively similar offers. In the case where there is a huge gap in those other factors maybe it can have more than tie breaker effect, but that's often not the case, because the 2nd factor is usually winning and typically the teams with massive winning gaps are stuck at the exception level contracts and often at TMLE or below and the teams with money are WAY above that, so if you go to that team, money becomes basically a non factor.

Using this framework, it's unlikely Chicago is a meaningfully better destination than Detroit if money is the primary motivating factor. It's a better city and he probably has friendships here because he's been here, and that probably accounts for something, but probably not more than 10M in total over the life of his deal would be my guess, and if Detroit offers 10M more over 3 years, and we refuse to match, it leaves such a bad taste in his mouth that it starts to poison the well. There's a fair chance he also figures I probably stand a good chance of getting traded anyway, so why take less?

If he uses the winning framework, Chicago is just going to lose to any of the top 8 teams in the league who could bid on him.

Maybe the real wild card is Philly. If Philly were to bid because they have cap room and bid like say 15M or something, their chance to win and quality of city overall might be a compelling thing where it breaks the mode of purely chance to win vs money because the money is still really good and perceived chance to win isn't maximized but is certainly reasonable and might be one of the rare cases with a compromise is possible.

[Rose2Boozer]

QO.