Bulls in the clutch

[FriedRise]

Thought this deserves its own thread. One of the few positives of this team this year.

I know that being in the clutch this many times is probably not a good thing, but credit to these guys because they wake up and perform when it comes time. And this isn't a flash in a pan either because over half their games played have resulted in a clutch situation.

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[sco]

So the follow-up question is in how many of those games were we winning by a large amount, only to lose the lead in the 4th and have to scratch and claw to eek out what should have been a comfortable win?

[dougthonus]

So the follow-up question is in how many of those games were we winning by a large amount, only to lose the lead in the 4th and have to scratch and claw to eek out what should have been a comfortable win?

Off the cuff, I feel like we had a lot of games where we also were losing by a lot then came back. I think it's worth realizing the NBA just has tons of wild swings now with teams going on massive runs of three point shooting, you can just see huge movements in points really quickly.

[dougthonus]

It's great from a game watching perspective how good we are in the clutch and how enjoyable that makes the games.

From a moving forward perspective, clutch has historically been a stat that swings wildly and probably isn't very good at being predictive. As such, people making decisions often overvalue clutch when making future decisions.

[DropStep]

We were really, really clutch two seasons ago. SIX GAMES over our expected record by point differential. DDR was winning games on the last shot and was the King in the Fourth.

Last year we were bad in the clutch, and we were five games UNDER our expectation by point differential. That's eleven games difference compared to the previous season, +6 vs -5, just solely in how well our buckets scored and buckets allowed translated into actual wins. There were lots of complaints here about our end-of-game execution and Billy's playcalling.

This year we appear to be good in the clutch again.

Same players, mostly. Same coach. <Shrug emoji> <Shrug emoji>

Sometimes teams have weirdly different personalities year to year. And sometimes the dice just roll funny over long stretches. Sometimes the refs take away three or four games from you at the end, all in one season (allegedly). Maybe our PG play wasn't as good last year, with an unblossomed Coby, Dragic, PatBev, etc. Or, an anti-Lavine troll might point out that last year when we took our dip, Zach played his career high in minutes, by a lot (while managing a recovery from a serious injury, to be fair).

I have no idea what it's about, but I know it's a LOT more fun when the Bulls are good in the clutch.

[ChettheJet]

It's fine to be in close games at the end against BOS, CLE, MIA, MIL, MINN, OKC, DEN even to lose but the STILL under .500 Bulls end up fighting UT, DET, CHA, BRK, TOR for games that they should and often do, break out to a 10-12 point lead but can't hold or extend it. It's probably a team identity thing more than some of the players but they rise to the level of some opponents and play down to those below them in the standings. I don't think it's Billy because he burns most of his timeouts, he doesn't leave them out there, even though they are a veteran team, to play through runs and stay close.

[chitownsports4ever]

It really should not be a surprise

Demar
AC
Vooch
Coby
Ayo

have all been in these same situations for 3 straight seasons facing some of the same players. They 100% should have a really good grasp on how they want to attack certain teams .

[MrSparkle]

Well, Caruso and Demar have been holding the fort down on their respective strong ends for 3 seasons straight. I think the “extra” dysfunction of last year (and past Nov.) changed the narrative. Demar was trying to make chicken out of salad; rest of the team froze. Now everyone’s on the same page.

Certainly helps to have Coby with more composure. He’s filled Zach’s clutch scoring, without the fumbles and erratic selection. Zach was a more gifted shot maker, albeit the machine was broken. Coby and Demar share possessions in a more fluid way.

We still have defensive heels and shooting + size limitations. I wouldn’t put too much into this clutch stock. Not unless Vuc finds 40% 3P rhythm. If we had that kind of a 3rd threat, we’d actually be trouble for most teams… not winning lucky breaks.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

is there enough of a sample size where this is actually meaningful data? I mean, I bet the "overall" stats are reasonable (the bulls are bad), but how many "clutch" minutes are we going off of?

i'm only asking out of curiosity, maybe this is meaningful and this is evidence that Billy is actually a good coach. or it means nothing and it's a statistical aberration. I'm glass half empty with this team as it's currently constructed, so I tend toward the latter point of view.

maybe it's the truth. if so, the bulls should try playing like that all the time instead of for 3 minutes every other day. they might not be a 9th seed. I'm barely interested in the NBA now because a 9th seed is a playoff team... so hey, we can watch this bulls team flounder to a below .500 record year after year and be rewarded for it and JR is happy because it's a cashcow playoff team.

in other words, maybe this 'clutch' stat is indicative of a good team waiting to upset somebody in the playoffs, but I sort of doubt it. I think the Bulls are just a bad team, it's worth reminding fans that this team is built to win right now, is paying an arm and a leg for a roster with championship aspirations, yet it's one of the worst teams in the league. I don't think there's a silver lining to the Chicago Bulls with Karnisovas at the helm.

i suppose there's some mention of 100 minute minimum...so 8 fourth quarters. that's no time at all. how does a benchwarmer getting hot and scoring 12 points in 4 minutes affect that? how does a superstar going 0-7 against the Bulls one time affect it? man, I bet some guys out of the league looked like superstars over the course of 100 minutes.

[Ice Man]

This cause for those numbers is clear. DeMar is an excellent closer -- an elite iso scorer who does not need somebody else to set the table for him, and who has the sound judgement of a veteran when doubled. He's also elite at drawing fouls, to get to the line if necessary. Most teams don't have the luxury of possessing such a player. Consequently, Billy (and the rest of the Bulls team, which willingly defers to DeMar late in games) has made the obvious and correct decision to give DeMar the keys to the team down the stretch. The Bulls are therefore unusually good at finishing gams. They are clearly better at that task than when LaVine was either sharing that duty, because LaVine's decision making was nowhere near as good.*

Some luck involved? Some of the pattern due to a smallish sample size, the normal variation of such things? Yes and yes. But the overall evidence is incontrovertible.

* Ironically, Billy has been criticized *this year* for his 4th quarter tactics, when his actual mistake came in previous years. He has been spot on this season in trusting DeMar. But in the past, he was too hands off in letting DeMar split those duties with LaVine. He should have guided those guys to what would have made for better outcomes.

[nekorajo]

It really should not be a surprise

Demar
AC
Vooch
Coby
Ayo

have all been in these same situations for 3 straight seasons facing some of the same players. They 100% should have a really good grasp on how they want to attack certain teams .

Agreed. This kind of success should be the expected outcome of continuity. I just don’t understand why this same group find themselves in a hole in nearly every 1st Q. Is Donovan a secret genius who's perfected a basketball version of the rope-a-dope?

[Ice Man]

Agreed. This kind of success should be the expected outcome of continuity. I just don’t understand why this same group find themselves in a hole in nearly every 1st Q.

As I have been writing, that is the question that Billy's critics should be asking, rather than poking at his 4th quarter decisions.

[MrSparkle]

It really should not be a surprise

Demar
AC
Vooch
Coby
Ayo

have all been in these same situations for 3 straight seasons facing some of the same players. They 100% should have a really good grasp on how they want to attack certain teams .

Agreed. This kind of success should be the expected outcome of continuity. I just don’t understand why this same group find themselves in a hole in nearly every 1st Q. Is Donovan a secret genius who's perfected a basketball version of the rope-a-dope?

Well, Demar definitely paces himself. He's on record. Having your tallest wing be a low-effort defender is bad for the line. Combine that with Vuc, and sub-6'5 height at the other 3 positions, and I think we're just a pretty easy team to score on unless everything's on point. Besides that, we still lack some shooting confidence.

[nekorajo]

Agreed. This kind of success should be the expected outcome of continuity. I just don’t understand why this same group find themselves in a hole in nearly every 1st Q.

As I have been writing, that is the question that Billy's critics should be asking, rather than poking at his 4th quarter decisions.

Last night, in the 4th, the Warriors successfully crashed the offensive boards while Billy stubbornly stuck with small ball. That's worth critiquing, especially with a solid rebounder like Torrey Craig available.

[Stratmaster]

It really should not be a surprise

Demar
AC
Vooch
Coby
Ayo

have all been in these same situations for 3 straight seasons facing some of the same players. They 100% should have a really good grasp on how they want to attack certain teams .

Continuity wins again!

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[DuckIII]

That's worth critiquing, especially with a solid rebounder like Torrey Craig available.

Craig is on a minutes limit and if BD overplayed him I’d be irate. We need to get him back for real this time. Our depth is putrid. BD did the right thing and should continue to bring Craig back to full speed with caution.

[nekorajo]

That's worth critiquing, especially with a solid rebounder like Torrey Craig available.

Craig is on a minutes limit and if BD overplayed him I’d be irate. We need to get him back for real this time. Our depth is putrid. BD did the right thing and should continue to bring Craig back to full speed with caution.

I agree if he was at his minute limit, but the greater point still stands. Billy's 4th Q reliance on small ball isn't above critique, particularly when the team is getting crushed on the glass.

[DropStep]

This cause for those numbers is clear. DeMar is an excellent closer -- an elite iso scorer who does not need somebody else to set the table for him, and who has the sound judgement of a veteran when doubled. He's also elite at drawing fouls, to get to the line if necessary. Most teams don't have the luxury of possessing such a player. Consequently, Billy (and the rest of the Bulls team, which willingly defers to DeMar late in games) has made the obvious and correct decision to give DeMar the keys to the team down the stretch. The Bulls are therefore unusually good at finishing gams. They are clearly better at that task than when LaVine was either sharing that duty, because LaVine's decision making was nowhere near as good.*

Some luck involved? Some of the pattern due to a smallish sample size, the normal variation of such things? Yes and yes. But the overall evidence is incontrovertible.

* Ironically, Billy has been criticized *this year* for his 4th quarter tactics, when his actual mistake came in previous years. He has been spot on this season in trusting DeMar. But in the past, he was too hands off in letting DeMar split those duties with LaVine. He should have guided those guys to what would have made for better outcomes.

Maybe sorta. But I don't think it is so clear. DDR and Zach and Billy were in place two years ago when we were pretty historically great in closing out wins. If Zach was the problem "in the past... splitting duties with DDR," not sure why it wasn't a problem back then when Zach played 67 games and DDR became the King in the Fourth. But DDR was also in place last year when we weren't great, and Zach was still managing his recovery from injury. The structural things you mention as causes - DDR, Zach, Billy - have been in place most of the last three years, but our effectiveness has swung wildly in both directions. It's confusing.

The predictable DeMar iso seemed pretty stale earlier this year, especially when Coby was cooking all game but was watching DDR freestyle at the end. I'm not sure if things were fine tuned, or if it's chance, but it feels like it's working much better lately. Either way, the causes aren't so clear to me.

You mention the mistake in previous years in not trusting DeMar. They did, don't you think? DDR got a nickname out of it.